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  Quotations - Invest  
[Quote No.27062] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Short-term trading raises both our brokerage expenses and our tax bill; the less we trade the more we will keep [and compound]." - Jason Zweig
senior writer for ‘Money’ magazine and editor of the revised edition of Benjamin Graham’s best-selling ‘The Intelligent Investor’. From his book, ‘Your Money and Your Brain – Become a smarter investor, the neuroscience way’.
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[Quote No.27064] Need Area: Money > Invest
"In order to increase its earnings a company must do one or more of five things: decrease expenses; raise the prices it charges; expand into new markets; sell more of its products to all markets; and revitalise, sell or close loss-making operations." - Peter Lynch
Fund manager and famous share investor; From his book, 'One Up on Wall Street'
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[Quote No.27065] Need Area: Money > Invest
"I have no use whatsoever for projections or forecasts. They create an illusion of apparent precision. The more meticulous they are, the more concerned you should be. We never look at projections but we care very much about, and look very deeply at, track records. If a company has a lousy track record but a very bright future, we will miss the opportunity." - Warren Buffett
Famous investor and C.E.O. of Berkshire Hathaway. He stated this at Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM in 1985.
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[Quote No.27071] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Financial market crashes do not emerge randomly, but follow booms. What fuels the boom are market estimates that risks are low. This optimism encourages imprudent lending, which eventually leads to the next crash. Boom-time is the best time for financial institutions to make provisions, but the incentives are for banks to respond to falling margins of a maturing boom by chasing after the marginal borrower. [Unfortunately] Current regulations do not pull them back but let them run ahead. [and therefore boom - bust cycles will continue]" - Charles Goodhart and Avinash Persaud
From their article, 'How To Avoid The Next Crash', published in 'The Financial Times', January 30, 2008
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[Quote No.27074] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Through the whole investing world greed is not good. There is a paradox in that investing to increase wealth would seem to be inevitably associated with greed but greedy people are not the most successful investors. Some of the biggest investment mistakes are due basically to greed – greed in delaying the selling of shares to get a few more cents on the price which results in being left high and dry when a market slump comes…- Greed in dealing with stockbrokers to set unrealistic [buy and sell] limits...-greed prevents these people from cutting their losses or locking in a smaller profit rather than facing a substantial loss later on. Greed in relation to taxation...a morbid fear of having to share a profit with the taxman prevents them from selling to take a profit and may lead to them facing a significant loss all by themselves." - Austin Donnelly
(1923 - ) He was a famous Australian investment advisor with over 40 books and 200 issues of his monthly investment newsletter to his credit. He championed investor concerns and was an expert witness and adviser in successful claims against advisors and fund managers for the recovery of losses due to their failure to disclose material information, including the degree of investment risk, in the products they promoted. He was one of the few advisers to warn of excessive speculation and predict the imminent 1987 stock market crash. [The market was a massive 140% above its long-term trend at the time and it later dropped 20% in one day.] The Australian newspaper, The Sydney Morning Herald, described him as...'the country's top financial adviser'. Quote from his book, ‘More Wealth With Less Risk’.
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[Quote No.27075] Need Area: Money > Invest
"...market cycles have...a significant effect on investment results...gains built up over some time can be quickly lost in a cyclical slump...[as] widespread speculation and the herd instinct accentuate market swings...[It is important to remember that in the share market] there are steep cycles [between peaks and troughs] but only a moderate upward trend in the long term...called the long term mean. For example, for the 30 years from 1959 to 1989 in the Australian share market this trend works out at 6.7 percent per annum compound. Using the Rule of 72, this trend would result in the share market index doubling every 10 or so years.]" - Austin Donnelly
(1923 - ) He was a famous Australian investment advisor with over 40 books and 200 issues of his monthly investment newsletter to his credit. He championed investor concerns and was an expert witness and adviser in successful claims against advisors and fund managers for the recovery of losses due to their failure to disclose material information, including the degree of investment risk, in the products they promoted. He was one of the few advisers to warn of excessive speculation and predict the imminent 1987 stock market crash. [The market was a massive 140% above its long-term trend at the time and it later dropped 20% in one day.] The Australian newspaper, The Sydney Morning Herald, described him as...'the country's top financial adviser’. Quote from his book, ‘More Wealth With Less Risk’.
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[Quote No.27076] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Cycles are an important fact of life. Conventional wisdom and the lobby for shares and property and unit trusts investing in those areas as well as some investment theorists try hard to make the case either that cycles do not exist, or, if they do exist, they are unimportant because all you have to do is stay in the market for a reasonable time and you will be well ahead. But anybody who has studied the market seriously over many years would not accept those claims. In particular, they would not be accepted by the tens of thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands, of Australian investors who had to wait twelve years or more simply to be able to sell without loss on their shares in leading companies like BHP or their holdings in share trusts and property trusts managed by leading groups. [According to the highly successful share investor, Bernard Baruch, an understanding of market cycles, he developed by studying the best-selling book, ‘Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds’ by Charles Mackay, allowed him to get out of the United States share market before the 1929 Stock Market Crash, saving him many millions of dollars. An understanding of market cycles, which is contrary to the Efficient Market Hypothesis propounded by the finance industry, has saved many other investors from significant loss of their hard earned life-savings.]" - Austin Donnelly
(1923 - ) He was a famous Australian investment advisor with over 40 books and 200 issues of his monthly investment newsletter to his credit. He championed investor concerns and was an expert witness and adviser in successful claims against advisors and fund managers for the recovery of losses due to their failure to disclose material information, including the degree of investment risk, in the products they promoted. He was one of the few advisers to warn of excessive speculation and predict the imminent 1987 stock market crash. [The market was a massive 140% above its long-term trend at the time and it later dropped 20% in one day.] The Australian newspaper, The Sydney Morning Herald, described him as...'the country's top financial adviser’. Quote from his book, ‘More Wealth With Less Risk’.
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[Quote No.27077] Need Area: Money > Invest
"If prices for a particular market are plotted on a chart for a long period (plotting only the major swings and leaving out the minor intermediate swings), it is possible to get some idea of what appears to be the Normal Trading Area [long term mean] for that market. This is the area within which prices are located about two-thirds of the time. For the remainder of the periods prices are either above the Normal Trading Area in periods of strong booms or below it in periods of severe slumps. Though this procedure does not provide any magic cure to the problem of trying to determine when and where markets will turn down or up, it can be useful in identifying areas where prices are so far above their Normal Trading Area that a severe downward slump is a distinct possibility. This exercise was one of the reasons which led to my warning in the middle of 1987 that a severe slump in share prices was imminent...[which came true later that year]...the use of this technique, together with a constant recognition of the importance of cycles, can do a lot to produce increase in wealth that stays than wealth that goes away [with slumps]. Buying should be deferred and selling commenced to reduce holdings when share prices are well above the Normal Trading Area, and when they are also high on the basis of dividend yields and interest rates, and are approaching the time when a cyclical decline may be expected. That is one of the most realistic ways of achieving good results in the share market. These results are likely to be a lot better than the far from spectacular results that come from the traditional approach of staying more or less permanently in the market – an approach which some cynics have described as the jellyfish philosophy of just drifting up and down with the market tide." - Austin Donnelly
(1923 - ) He was a famous Australian investment advisor with over 40 books and 200 issues of his monthly investment newsletter to his credit. He championed investor concerns and was an expert witness and adviser in successful claims against advisors and fund managers for the recovery of losses due to their failure to disclose material information, including the degree of investment risk, in the products they promoted. He was one of the few advisers to warn of excessive speculation and predict the imminent 1987 stock market crash. [The market was a massive 140% above its long-term trend at the time and it later dropped 20% in one day.] The Australian newspaper, The Sydney Morning Herald, described him as...'the country's top financial adviser’. Quote from his book, ‘More Wealth With Less Risk’.
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[Quote No.27078] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Investment] Policy considerations should not be ignored. Even at times when all of the indicators…may be favourable for share investing, that type of investment would not be suitable for those investors whose limited capital, or lack of adequate income from other sources, or attitude to risk taking makes it necessary for them to adopt a policy of having all or most of their funds in low risk investments providing a high and stable return." - Austin Donnelly
(1923 - ) He was a famous Australian investment advisor with over 40 books and 200 issues of his monthly investment newsletter to his credit. He championed investor concerns and was an expert witness and adviser in successful claims against advisors and fund managers for the recovery of losses due to their failure to disclose material information, including the degree of investment risk, in the products they promoted. He was one of the few advisers to warn of excessive speculation and predict the imminent 1987 stock market crash. [The market was a massive 140% above its long-term trend at the time and it later dropped 20% in one day.] The Australian newspaper, The Sydney Morning Herald, described him as...'the country's top financial adviser’. Quote from his book, ‘More Wealth With Less Risk’.
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[Quote No.27079] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Cycles occur in all markets. Do not accept the claims by salespeople or advisors who try to persuade you that there are some investments or some times when cyclical slumps are not a problem…In property the reality of slumps is not as widely recognised, partly because the property lobby has perpetuated the myth that values never go down, that when a boom ends they imply move sideways or that any declines are very short-lived and that, in any case, values are sure to increase in line with inflation. All of those statements are incorrect. The fact is that there are slumps in property which at times can be very serious, for example as in 1974 [in Australia]…Slumps in the property market are not so apparent because there is not one centralised market for property as there is for shares…Basically the same principles apply to the importance of cycles in property as in the share market. Deferment of buying and gradual reduction of investment in property, at times when prices have been rising for some considerable time to levels that seem to be unrealistic in relation to the cost of money and interest rates, is a good way of achieving wealth that stays rather than wealth that goes away. The point is that timing is very important in property as in share investments. The old claim that the three rules of property are location, location, location needs to be amended to say that the three rules of property investment are timing [buying], location and timing [selling]." - Austin Donnelly
(1923 - ) He was a famous Australian investment advisor with over 40 books and 200 issues of his monthly investment newsletter to his credit. He championed investor concerns and was an expert witness and adviser in successful claims against advisors and fund managers for the recovery of losses due to their failure to disclose material information, including the degree of investment risk, in the products they promoted. He was one of the few advisers to warn of excessive speculation and predict the imminent 1987 stock market crash. [The market was a massive 140% above its long-term trend at the time and it later dropped 20% in one day.] The Australian newspaper, The Sydney Morning Herald, described him as...'the country's top financial adviser’. Quote from his book, ‘More Wealth With Less Risk’.
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[Quote No.27080] Need Area: Money > Invest
"...the lessons of history suggested that the market after its rise, which had taken it so far above its long term trend, could have a long way to fall. It is well to remember the hangover analogy – namely, that just as a very heavy night can be followed by a more severe hangover, a long and frenetic boom is likely to be followed by a more severe and prolonged slump." - Austin Donnelly
(1923 - ) He was a famous Australian investment advisor with over 40 books and 200 issues of his monthly investment newsletter to his credit. He championed investor concerns and was an expert witness and adviser in successful claims against advisors and fund managers for the recovery of losses due to their failure to disclose material information, including the degree of investment risk, in the products they promoted. He was one of the few advisers to warn of excessive speculation and predict the imminent 1987 stock market crash. [The market was a massive 140% above its long-term trend at the time and it later dropped 20% in one day.] The Australian newspaper, The Sydney Morning Herald, described him as...'the country's top financial adviser’. Quote from his book, ‘More Wealth With Less Risk’.
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[Quote No.27081] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Investors have to accept the reality of two very significant points. The first is that the long term trend in share prices is fairly modest (6.7 % for 1959 to 1989 – in Australia) but the cycles are steep – percentage movements from the top of the boom to the bottom of a trough or from the trough to the next peak are very great. [For example, 40 % above the long term mean trend to 40 % below] So the name of the game is to ensure that you have the cycles working for you by achieving a sustained gain of the significant part of the upward swing while protecting yourself against most of the decline in the downturn that follows every boom. If investors attempting to have the cycles work for them achieve only half of the total upswing between trough and peak and protect themselves against at least half of the downswing they will do very much better than those who follow what might be called the ‘Jellyfish Philosophy’ of just drifting up and down with the market tide. [even considering long-term capital gain and brokerage fees]" - Austin Donnelly
(1923 - ) He was a famous Australian investment advisor with over 40 books and 200 issues of his monthly investment newsletter to his credit. He championed investor concerns and was an expert witness and adviser in successful claims against advisors and fund managers for the recovery of losses due to their failure to disclose material information, including the degree of investment risk, in the products they promoted. He was one of the few advisers to warn of excessive speculation and predict the imminent 1987 stock market crash. [The market was a massive 140% above its long-term trend at the time and it later dropped 20% in one day.] The Australian newspaper, The Sydney Morning Herald, described him as...'the country's top financial adviser’. Quote from his book, ‘More Wealth With Less Risk’.
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[Quote No.27082] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Because nobody rings a bell to let you know that it is the top or bottom of the market it can be wise for buying and selling to be done on the step or stages system...This involves buying or selling in stages [for example in increments of a third of the quantity that your policy considerations suggest is appropriate for you from your risk profile, etc] rather than attempting to pick the one precise moment to move into or out of the market…[as] it is wise to hedge against this decision being incorrect...[and then watching to see if your expectations are confirmed before moving again.]" - Austin Donnelly
(1923 - ) He was a famous Australian investment advisor with over 40 books and 200 issues of his monthly investment newsletter to his credit. He championed investor concerns and was an expert witness and adviser in successful claims against advisors and fund managers for the recovery of losses due to their failure to disclose material information, including the degree of investment risk, in the products they promoted. He was one of the few advisers to warn of excessive speculation and predict the imminent 1987 stock market crash. [The market was a massive 140% above its long-term trend at the time and it later dropped 20% in one day.] The Australian newspaper, The Sydney Morning Herald, described him as...'the country's top financial adviser’. Quote from his book, ‘More Wealth With Less Risk’.
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[Quote No.27083] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Possible signs to increase [buy] share investments: Please note any decision to increase share investments would have to be made within the policy framework for each individual. Attractive indicators are not a good argument for share investment by those people who have to follow a low risk policy, or for those whose share investments are already up to the maximum percentage decreed by their policy considerations. Subject to that comment and a reminder that it is not wise to make decisions just on one indicator, the following are the circumstances in which increased share investments could be considered: 1- Good prospects for the economy and corporate earnings (except when the circumstances such as 1986-87 share prices relative to long term trend [mean] and/or 20 month moving averages are so high that those benefits have probably already been over-anticipated); 2- Prospects of a significant and sustainable decline in interest rates [a loosening bias in monetary policy] (with the same exception as in the above point); 3- The All Ordinaries Index is below the long term trend [mean] by a margin of about 25%-30% or more [especially if this is accompanied by greater volatility than average, even more so if it rises above the most recent previous unsustained rise and particularly if this is accompanied by higher than average volume]; 4- The All Ordinaries Index has increased to about 5% or more above the 20-month [600-day] moving average figure; 5- The income handicap for shares (yield gap or excess of medium term interest rates over dividend yield) is below 5% [the average gap over the period from 1959-1989 was only about 3% and the medium term interest rate divided by the average share market dividend yield over the same period hovered most of the time around twice as much (ranging for most of this time between 1.3 to 2.5 times as much). In 1954 there was no gap at all meaning that if there was even a modest amount of capital gain the total return from shares would exceed that from fixed interest investments, which did in fact act as an encouragement to business investment and share investing.]; 6- On the normal time pattern, a cyclical slump is not likely in the near future, i.e. when the time since the last cyclical peak is less than three years. [7- The investing public is pessimistic/unjustifiably despondent/fearful about shares in general.] When some indicators are favourable and others are not it is necessary to make a judgment. Generally it would be wise to place somewhat greater emphasis on items (3) to (6) above. Remember that it does not have to be an all or nothing decision. You can use the Step System by investing only part of planned total purchases and then watching the market closely for the timing of further purchases. [In giving instructions to brokers it is also wise to be realistic. It generally pays to set buying limits a few cents or perhaps 1 or 2% below the last sale price. Deciding to buy only at the last sale price, or to be carried away by wishful thinking to believe you will be able to buy at a slightly lower price, is often a case of chasing the shadow and losing the substance. Also buying at arbitrary round dollar figures such as $15 or $21, etc where there may be many others waiting to buy can cause some delays.]" - Austin Donnelly
(1923 - ) He was a famous Australian investment advisor with over 40 books and 200 issues of his monthly investment newsletter to his credit. He championed investor concerns and was an expert witness and adviser in successful claims against advisors and fund managers for the recovery of losses due to their failure to disclose material information, including the degree of investment risk, in the products they promoted. He was one of the few advisers to warn of excessive speculation and predict the imminent 1987 stock market crash. [The market was a massive 140% above its long-term trend at the time and it later dropped 20% in one day.] The Australian newspaper, The Sydney Morning Herald, described him as...'the country's top financial adviser’. Quote from his book, ‘More Wealth With Less Risk’.
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[Quote No.27084] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Possible signs to reduce (sell) share investments: Subject to...the need for each investor to act within his policy framework and to the amount of current investment in shares relative to policy limits [and a reminder that it is not wise to make decisions just on one indicator], the possible signs to reduce share investments are summarised below: 1- Declining prospects for the economy and for corporate earnings (except when the market has just experienced a very serious slump so that prices relative to long term trend [mean and/or 20 month moving averages are so low that it] may have already over-anticipated the likely bad news.); 2- Prospects of a significant and sustained rise in interest rates [a tightening bias in monetary policy] (subject to the exception in the above point); 3- The All Ordinaries Index is above the long term trend [mean] by a margin of 35% or more [especially if this is accompanied by greater volatility than average, even more so if it falls below a previous lowest unsustained dip and particularly if this is accompanied by higher than average volume]; 4- The All Ordinaries Index has declined below the 20-month [600-day] moving average figure; 5-The income handicap (yield gap [or excess of medium term interest rates over dividend yield] is high – above 7% [the average gap over the period from 1959-1989 was only about 3% and the medium term interest rate divided by the average share market dividend yield over the same period hovered most of the time around twice as much (ranging for most of this time between 1.3 to 2.5 times as much); 6- On the normal time pattern a cyclical slump could be imminent with the previous cyclical peak more than three to three and a half years ago. [7- The investing public is optimistic/irrationally exuberant/greedy about shares in general. When some indicators are favourable and others are not it is necessary to make a judgment. {For example:- the moving average sign was not flashing a warning just before the October 1987 Australian share market crash, when 50% or more of their capital disappeared within a few months, however the other indicators had been flashing bright red signals for some time – e.g. the index was 133% above its long term trend, the income handicap (yield gap) was about three times its long term average of 3% - the medium term interest rate was about 13% and the market’s average dividend yield 2.2% -and a slump was long overdue on the normal time pattern.} Generally it would be wise to place somewhat greater emphasis on items (3) to (6) above. Remember that it does not have to be an all or nothing decision. You can use the Step System by reducing only part of planned total reductions and then watching the market closely for the timing of further sales. If you are reluctant to sell remember these stock market adages:- ‘you want wealth [capital gain] that stays rather than wealth that goes away’, ‘nobody ever went broke taking a profit’, ‘a profit is not a profit until it is in the bank’, ‘there is a big difference between the maybe money of unrealised capital gain, or paper profits and the actual money of realised capital gain or tangible profits’, and that ‘eager sellers make good investors’. In giving instructions to brokers it is also wise to be realistic. It generally pays to set selling limits a few cents or perhaps 1 or 2% above the last sale price. Deciding to sell only at the last sale price, or to be carried away by wishful thinking to believe you will be able to sell at a slightly higher price, is often a case of chasing the shadow and losing the substance. Also selling at arbitrary round dollar figures such as $15 or $21, etc where there may be many others waiting to sell can cause some delays.]" - Austin Donnelly
(1923 - ) He was a famous Australian investment advisor with over 40 books and 200 issues of his monthly investment newsletter to his credit. He championed investor concerns and was an expert witness and adviser in successful claims against advisors and fund managers for the recovery of losses due to their failure to disclose material information, including the degree of investment risk, in the products they promoted. He was one of the few advisers to warn of excessive speculation and predict the imminent 1987 stock market crash. [The market was a massive 140% above its long-term trend at the time and it later dropped 20% in one day.] The Australian newspaper, The Sydney Morning Herald, described him as...'the country's top financial adviser’. Quote from his book, ‘More Wealth With Less Risk’.
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[Quote No.27085] Need Area: Money > Invest
"...an investment that may be a good investment at a particular time may not be a good investment at another time when its price has risen so much that a severe downward reaction is more or less inevitable." - Austin Donnelly
(1923 - ) He was a famous Australian investment advisor with over 40 books and 200 issues of his monthly investment newsletter to his credit. He championed investor concerns and was an expert witness and adviser in successful claims against advisors and fund managers for the recovery of losses due to their failure to disclose material information, including the degree of investment risk, in the products they promoted. He was one of the few advisers to warn of excessive speculation and predict the imminent 1987 stock market crash. [The market was a massive 140% above its long-term trend at the time and it later dropped 20% in one day.] The Australian newspaper, The Sydney Morning Herald, described him as...'the country's top financial adviser’. Quote from his book, ‘More Wealth With Less Risk’.
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[Quote No.27086] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The spread over a number of different companies or a number of different properties [diversification] is a protection against only one sort of risk [company/property risk] – the risk that a particular company may get into serious financial trouble or incur very great loss or that a particular property may not do well. But that spread is no protection at all against the other risk [market risk], which is often more serious, namely the risk of cyclical slumps…as many investors found to their sorrow in 1987 when 50% or more of their capital disappeared within a few months [in the share market crash]" - Austin Donnelly
(1923 - ) He was a famous Australian investment advisor with over 40 books and 200 issues of his monthly investment newsletter to his credit. He championed investor concerns and was an expert witness and adviser in successful claims against advisors and fund managers for the recovery of losses due to their failure to disclose material information, including the degree of investment risk, in the products they promoted. He was one of the few advisers to warn of excessive speculation and predict the imminent 1987 stock market crash. [The market was a massive 140% above its long-term trend at the time and it later dropped 20% in one day.] The Australian newspaper, The Sydney Morning Herald, described him as...'the country's top financial adviser’. Quote from his book, ‘More Wealth With Less Risk’.
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[Quote No.27087] Need Area: Money > Invest
"There were [are] very few stockbrokers, investment advisors or fund managers who were [are] prepared to warn of possible dangers in the market." - Austin Donnelly
(1923 - ) He was a famous Australian investment advisor with over 40 books and 200 issues of his monthly investment newsletter to his credit. He championed investor concerns and was an expert witness and adviser in successful claims against advisors and fund managers for the recovery of losses due to their failure to disclose material information, including the degree of investment risk, in the products they promoted. He was one of the few advisers to warn of excessive speculation and predict the imminent 1987 stock market crash. [The market was a massive 140% above its long-term trend at the time and it later dropped 20% in one day.] The Australian newspaper, The Sydney Morning Herald, described him as...'the country's top financial adviser’. Quote from his book, ‘More Wealth With Less Risk’.
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[Quote No.27088] Need Area: Money > Invest
"...sound share investing principles are based on the general principles of sound investment...The first essential is to be constantly aware of the difference between wealth that stays and wealth that goes away. To a considerable extent this involves recognising risk [including market risk, company risk, interest rate risk and accounting or informational risk] and taking appropriate action to ensure that gains of today are not completely or substantially lost in the slump of tomorrow [to literally buy low and sell high.]" - Austin Donnelly
(1923 - ) He was a famous Australian investment advisor with over 40 books and 200 issues of his monthly investment newsletter to his credit. He championed investor concerns and was an expert witness and adviser in successful claims against advisors and fund managers for the recovery of losses due to their failure to disclose material information, including the degree of investment risk, in the products they promoted. He was one of the few advisers to warn of excessive speculation and predict the imminent 1987 stock market crash. [The market was a massive 140% above its long-term trend at the time and it later dropped 20% in one day.] The Australian newspaper, The Sydney Morning Herald, described him as...'the country's top financial adviser’. Quote from his book, ‘More Wealth With Less Risk’.
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[Quote No.27089] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[It is important when considering investing in any company to go beyond the two traditional indicators of price/earnings ratio and the dividend yield to include: (1) the] earning rate of shareholder’s funds and what might be called the primary profitability rate, i.e. earnings before interest and tax as a percentage of total assets, as well as an analysis of company earnings to determine what portion of earnings came from basic business operations, from gearing benefits through the use of creditor’s funds, and taxation funds. As the latter two may tend to be non-recurring, this analysis can be helpful in locating companies which may face serious decline in earnings and possibly complete failure in difficult business conditions and times of high interest rates. Examples are Ariadne, Quintex and Bond Corporation;...(2) trends within the industry, including the effect of overseas competition; (3) changes in tariff or other protection; (4) changes in technology or changes from other industries providing competitive goods or services; (5) The ability of the company to maintain or increase its position in the market for its goods and services; (6) the standard of management." - Austin Donnelly
(1923 - ) He was a famous Australian investment advisor with over 40 books and 200 issues of his monthly investment newsletter to his credit. He championed investor concerns and was an expert witness and adviser in successful claims against advisors and fund managers for the recovery of losses due to their failure to disclose material information, including the degree of investment risk, in the products they promoted. He was one of the few advisers to warn of excessive speculation and predict the imminent 1987 stock market crash. [The market was a massive 140% above its long-term trend at the time and it later dropped 20% in one day.] The Australian newspaper, The Sydney Morning Herald, described him as...'the country's top financial adviser’. Quote from his book, ‘More Wealth With Less Risk’.
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[Quote No.27090] Need Area: Money > Invest
"...if you really want to analyse the financial position of a company from their financial statements, it is a good idea to start from the back particularly in the notes to the account...(because it is in the notes, particularly in the later notes where evidence of accounting skulduggery in financial statements may be detected by a skilled analyst)." - Austin Donnelly
(1923 - ) He was a famous Australian investment advisor with over 40 books and 200 issues of his monthly investment newsletter to his credit. He championed investor concerns and was an expert witness and adviser in successful claims against advisors and fund managers for the recovery of losses due to their failure to disclose material information, including the degree of investment risk, in the products they promoted. He was one of the few advisers to warn of excessive speculation and predict the imminent 1987 stock market crash. [The market was a massive 140% above its long-term trend at the time and it later dropped 20% in one day.] The Australian newspaper, The Sydney Morning Herald, described him as...'the country's top financial adviser’. Quote from his book, ‘More Wealth With Less Risk’.
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[Quote No.27091] Need Area: Money > Invest
" [In property investing it is often stated that the three most important things are location, location, location but in reality] The three rules should be timing, location, timing! [Here’s why] It is true that location is an important question in making real estate investments. If all other things are equal a better-located property bought at the right price could do better than a less well-located property. But location is not the only factor and it is not even the most important. If one factor is more important than any other it is timing. Over and over again losses have been suffered by buying well-located properties at excessive prices at the top of a boom just before a slump started. [An example of this would be the Gold Coast in Queensland, Australia, where there was a boom from 1976 to about 1981 especially in the prime beachfront unit properties. Over the next few years the prices fell by about 40% or more.] On the other hand very good profits have been made from buying less well-located properties in the early stages of a boom and selling them at a much higher price before the end of the boom. To suggest that location is all-important is just as fallacious and just as dangerous in real estate investment as it is to claim that in share investments you can’t go wrong with leading stocks, or ‘blue chips’, or quality stocks. [regardless of the purchase price]" - Austin Donnelly
(1923 - ) He was a famous Australian investment advisor with over 40 books and 200 issues of his monthly investment newsletter to his credit. He championed investor concerns and was an expert witness and adviser in successful claims against advisors and fund managers for the recovery of losses due to their failure to disclose material information, including the degree of investment risk, in the products they promoted. He was one of the few advisers to warn of excessive speculation and predict the imminent 1987 stock market crash. [The market was a massive 140% above its long-term trend at the time and it later dropped 20% in one day.] The Australian newspaper, The Sydney Morning Herald, described him as...'the country's top financial adviser’. Quote from his book, ‘More Wealth With Less Risk’.
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[Quote No.27092] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[In real estate investing] As with investment in shares, the first requirement for sound investment decisions is to set policy limits [or percent ranges for the allocation of assets into this class of investments depending on the individual’s circumstances and the condition of the market.]...At times when market prospects look favourable the percentage in real estate could be increased towards the upper end of that range. At other times when prices seem excessive and there is a possibility of a serious slump the proportion in real estate should be reduced towards the lower limit of the policy range." - Austin Donnelly
(1923 - ) He was a famous Australian investment advisor with over 40 books and 200 issues of his monthly investment newsletter to his credit. He championed investor concerns and was an expert witness and adviser in successful claims against advisors and fund managers for the recovery of losses due to their failure to disclose material information, including the degree of investment risk, in the products they promoted. He was one of the few advisers to warn of excessive speculation and predict the imminent 1987 stock market crash. [The market was a massive 140% above its long-term trend at the time and it later dropped 20% in one day.] The Australian newspaper, The Sydney Morning Herald, described him as...'the country's top financial adviser’. Quote from his book, ‘More Wealth With Less Risk’.
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[Quote No.27093] Need Area: Money > Invest
"One possible indication of whether it is the time to increase or reduce real estate investment is to consider where real estate prices are in relation to their long-term trend [mean]. There is no index available for property values over a long period, but this long-term rate of gain is a lot lower than most people may believe. For example, over a period of 28 years a number of [Australian] property trusts have produced capital gains of about 4% per annum compound. Other property investors have done better than that but with a few exceptions the long term rate of growth would probably be within the range of 4% to about 8% per annum compound. [Using the ‘Rule of 72’ for compound interest and taking 6% as a medium annual return per annum compound, a house would double in price every 72/6 = 12 years.]...So if we see that prices have been rising for two or three or four years at 10% or 15% or 20% or more, the one thing that is fairly sure is that those high rates of gain are unlikely to continue indefinitely. Unfortunately no-one rings a bell at the time when prices stop rising but it is almost inevitable that the high rate of gain will be followed by a fairly sharp downward reaction or at best by a sideways or slightly downward movement. So a period when prices have been rising very rapidly for more than two or three years is the time to consider the possibility of reducing investment in real estate. On the other hand if prices seem to be well below the long-term trend [mean] and if they show signs of starting to move upwards after a sharp decline and possibly a period of bouncing along the bottom, that could be an indication of a possible move to increase investment in real estate. Wise investors will not rely on that or any one indicator alone. Another indicator to consider is actual and likely changes in interest rates [monetary policy]...real estate investments are particularly vulnerable to changes in interest rates. That is why experienced investors started to reduce their real estate investments about the end of 1988 [in Australia] when interest rates were rising, and it seemed they could continue to rise for some time, and the monetary authorities grappled with the task of trying to slow down the economy to improve the overseas balance of payments [and slow inflation]. On the other hand a situation of significant reduction in interest rates could be good for the market...[if they moved towards more neutral – not economically restrictive, long term average levels]. As for the average timing of cycles it is not possible to give a good indication of the average length of property market cycles...as...there is no reliable index available to show day-by-day movements in property values. We do know that there was a moderate cyclical slump in [Australian] property in 1970, a very serious slump in 1974, a slump in 1982 and a slump in some parts of property especially housing in 1986/87...[and then again in] 1989. Another possible indicator [for real estate investing] is the size of the income handicap or yield gap. In markets generally, as the yield gap between the income return on equity and cost of money and interest rates widens, the possibility of a decline in value tends to increase. This is somewhat confused in the property markets because techniques such as serious distortion of property values leading to overstatements of 30% to 50% in cases with side deals on rental concessions have at least temporarily suppressed the operation of normal market forces." - Austin Donnelly
(1923 - ) He was a famous Australian investment advisor with over 40 books and 200 issues of his monthly investment newsletter to his credit. He championed investor concerns and was an expert witness and adviser in successful claims against advisors and fund managers for the recovery of losses due to their failure to disclose material information, including the degree of investment risk, in the products they promoted. He was one of the few advisers to warn of excessive speculation and predict the imminent 1987 stock market crash. [The market was a massive 140% above its long-term trend at the time and it later dropped 20% in one day.] The Australian newspaper, The Sydney Morning Herald, described him as...'the country's top financial adviser’. Quote from his book, ‘More Wealth With Less Risk’.
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[Quote No.27094] Need Area: Money > Invest
"To paraphrase the warning to staff in the wartime barracks store, put your trust in God, and get a signature from everybody else, do not accept at face value what you are told by people trying to sell you investments, including a large number of ‘advisors’ who are selling wolves in the clothing of advisory lambs...enriching themselves...while impoverishing their clients. [Often the selling tail wags the investment dog]" - Austin Donnelly
(1923 - ) He was a famous Australian investment advisor with over 40 books and 200 issues of his monthly investment newsletter to his credit. He championed investor concerns and was an expert witness and adviser in successful claims against advisors and fund managers for the recovery of losses due to their failure to disclose material information, including the degree of investment risk, in the products they promoted. He was one of the few advisers to warn of excessive speculation and predict the imminent 1987 stock market crash. [The market was a massive 140% above its long-term trend at the time and it later dropped 20% in one day.] The Australian newspaper, The Sydney Morning Herald, described him as...'the country's top financial adviser’. Quote from his book, ‘More Wealth With Less Risk’.
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[Quote No.27095] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Learn to let your profits run, but be prepared to convert maybe money of unrealised gain into actual money of realised gains while a boom continues. In terms of the bigger fool theory [namely, that a boom will continue into overvalued teritory as long as a bigger fool can be found to buy from the last fool], be sure you are no later than the second to last fool when the crunch comes and a boom [inevitably] turns into a slump. [so you create wealth that stays rather than wealth that goes away.]" - Austin Donnelly
(1923 - ) He was a famous Australian investment advisor with over 40 books and 200 issues of his monthly investment newsletter to his credit. He championed investor concerns and was an expert witness and adviser in successful claims against advisors and fund managers for the recovery of losses due to their failure to disclose material information, including the degree of investment risk, in the products they promoted. He was one of the few advisers to warn of excessive speculation and predict the imminent 1987 stock market crash. [The market was a massive 140% above its long-term trend at the time and it later dropped 20% in one day.] The Australian newspaper, The Sydney Morning Herald, described him as...'the country's top financial adviser’. Quote from his book, ‘More Wealth With Less Risk’.
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[Quote No.27124] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The healthiest [real estate] housing markets today generally are moderately priced and are experiencing job growth and often population growth, which in turn is supporting strong price growth. Most of the weakest markets have either experienced both job and population losses, or they are experiencing corrections following a prolonged period of rapid price growth." - Lawrence Yun
Chief economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR) in the United States of America, in a CNNMoney.com article entitled, 'Home Prices in Steepest Quarterly Drop:- Realtors say prices fell faster and in more places over last part of 2007', February 14, 2008.
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[Quote No.27125] Need Area: Money > Invest
"It's clear that the Fed[eral Reserve] chairman and Treasury Secretary are going to be reluctant to ever call a recession until well after the fact. Perhaps that's the way it should be. Financial markets would shudder if either were willing to acknowledge the economy has shifted into reverse. Such a pronouncement could even become a self-fulfilling assessment, scaring both consumers and businesses to further pull back on their spending at a time when both men are trying to spur economic growth. But their actions [will always] speak louder than their words." - Chris Isidore
CNNMoney.com senior writer, in the article 'Five Questions For Ben and Hank', February 13, 2008.
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[Quote No.27128] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The 1987 share price crash - which saw Australian shares fall 50% top to bottom - and the bear market in shares earlier this decade - which saw global shares fall 50% between March 2000 and March 2003 - contributed to house price booms in 1987-1989 and 2001-2004 as investors switched from shares to real estate. Australian average house prices rose nearly 50% between December 1987 and December 1989 [before falling] and they rose by 60% between December 2000 and December 2003." - Australasian Investment Review
15th of February, 2008
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[Quote No.27135] Need Area: Money > Invest
"No market-timing system, no matter how perfect, issues all predictions with equal confidence. Advisers who are willing to admit that they don't know are to be commended for their humility rather than pressured by our criticisms into making predictions and giving advice in which they don't believe." - Mark Hulbert
The founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.
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[Quote No.27141] Need Area: Money > Invest
"...capitalism is impelled by competitive pressures that are often profoundly anti-social in consequence and lurches from crisis to crisis [bust to boom to bust] – on average roughly 7.5 years apart since the late 1800s, as the late Charles Kindleberger once demonstrated – that in the end require the intervention of the state, which has to save the system from the consequences of the market's excesses..." - Alexander Cockburn
co-editor of the very popular radical site, CounterPunch.org - Quote from his article, 'The Age of Financial Terrorism.'
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[Quote No.27142] Need Area: Money > Invest
"...all incoming governments [when of a new political persuasion]...use their first budget to slash hard at the spending programs of their predecessors. [They do this by setting up 'razor gangs' to review budgets, etc and then cut in areas where there is no political mileage for them and which do not sit well with their politico-economic philosophy.]" - Ross Gittins
Quoted from 'The Sydney Morning Herald' article, 'Economic Angst - It's About Time', February 18th, 2008
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[Quote No.27157] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[NAIRU - Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment - is an economic concept that states that if the unemployment rate - i.e. the excess capacity in the labour market - falls below a certain level, inflation accelerates. Measuring it]...tells you to think about the speed at which the economy can grow and keep inflation low and stable, while getting the unemployment rate as low as possible...It also tells you once the unemployment rate goes below, it's hard to keep wage and inflation pressures intact. [Then Monetary Policy - in the form of interest rate rises - needs to be used to reduce the risk of runaway inflation often increasing unemployment. Then when the economy does slow, the unemployment rate often continues to rise for some time.]" - Steven Kennedy
General Manager of the Australian Government Treasury's Domestic Economy Division, quoted in the Sydney Morning Herald's article, 'Jobless Rate Inflationary: Treasury' on February 20, 2008.
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[Quote No.27163] Need Area: Money > Invest
"You have to have the ability to withstand pressure. If you can't do that, you shouldn't be doing what I do. In my world, there's always going to be ups and downs, good markets and bad markets. It's easy when the markets are good. When the markets are bad, you have to be able to withstand that pressure." - Donald Trump
Highly successful American real estate entrepreneur and author
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[Quote No.27164] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Lower lending standards are common in bull markets [booms] as bankers compete vigorously for business. When the tide invariably turns to a bear market [busts], some of those deals will turn bad and banks will report both increased credit losses as well as increased bad debt provisions - both negatively effecting earnings." - Unknown

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[Quote No.27172] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Don't count your chickens before they are hatched. [or, count your money before selling and realising your paper profits, when share investing.]" - Aesop

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[Quote No.27176] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[In nearly every bear market] There's a tug of war between folks that believe that we're at or near a bottom, and want to start to look through the first half to the second half, and price in earnings. Then there's a second group that doesn't believe in the 'E' in P-and-E levels, and believes every rally should be sold." - Art Hogan
chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co.
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[Quote No.27177] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Some investors who have been buying shares for long enough get a kind of feeling at some stage during a bull market that enough's enough. They gaze out to the horizon looking for the thing that will end it all. They know something will come out of the blue, but they don't know precisely what. You're talking about the X-factor and no one knows what the X-factor is because every time, apart from greed [which is always present], the X-factor is different. One of the things with the market is that when it's going up you never know when it is going to top, and you tend to find that markets run a lot harder than you think. You might think a company is expensive, but a lot of the time valuations will well and truly exceed what you think, so you keep playing the game. You never pick the top and never pick the bottom. The only person who tells you they sold at the top and bought at the bottom is a liar. Playing the game is why any temptation to liquidate an entire portfolio is not on. The risk is that prices might keep on rising, and rising. We could have (sold everything)[when we thought the market was overvalued], but that is when emotion takes over. But...you really have to keep feeding the ducks [selling shares] when they're quacking [wanting to buy those shares]. If the market is rising, you should be selling into a rising market. One of the good things is that bear markets tend to be shorter than bull markets. They tend to go for 12 to 15 months. [Talking about the current decline in share prices, he says that the market is a leading indicator not a lagging indicator.] All the companies you talk to say they are doing well operationally and they say they're making more money than six months ago and everything's fantastic. But they said exactly that after the 1987 [stock market] crash and then we had the blow-off in the property market two years later...and then we had a recession in the early '90s. So what this equity market fall is doing is telling us that in nine to 12 months there is going to be a sizeable slowing in the economy. Whether it goes into recession, who knows? [With the last big crash he bought a number of great companies at very low prices which has given him very high returns. He is looking to repeat this with this crash however he feels that more fear is needed to drive prices still lower.] The thing is, at the moment, you've just got to keep your powder dry. Keeping your hand in your pocket, that's the hard part. It's when everyone says (of particular shares): 'Hey, look, that's useless'. That's when we're at the bottom.' [and not before]" - Geoffrey Wilson
(1958 - ), he manages about $500 million of 'other people's money' in three listed investment companies - WAM Capital, Australian Leaders Fund and WAM Active, and has been analysing and picking stocks for nearly three decades. Quoted from 'The Age' newspaper article, 'Trader Gets To Bottom Of The Matter', 23rd February, 2008
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[Quote No.27178] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Tourism Australia does believe the strengthening of the Australian dollar has contributed to a weakening of arrivals...[especially from those] markets that ...[have] seen substantial exchange rate changes. [While motorists have been cheering the stronger Aussie dollar, which has kept petrol prices lower than they would have been otherwise, tourist operators in the tourism industry have not.] " - Geoff Buckley
Tourism Australia managing director. From the Sydney Morning Herald newspaper article,'Strong Australian Dollar Hurting Tourism', February 22, 2008
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[Quote No.27191] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The [interest rate] yield curve – representing the gap between short [the official cash rate] and long term rates [long term bonds] is an indication of the market’s view of where the economy is heading and the central bank’s monetary policy to control inflation. A normal or gently upward sloping yield curve tends to indicate an expectation the economy will continue to hum along at normal rates of growth without significant changes in inflation. An inverted yield curve indicates the market has a short-term expectation of further increases in the cash rate and thinks that rates – and the economy – are heading down in the longer-term. Whether the market has got it right is only ever clear in hindsight, however inverted yield curves are generally followed in the short-term by an economic slowdown – or outright recession – to bring inflation under control and then lower interest rates across the board in the long-term to stimulate the economy out of the slowdown or recession." - Unknown

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[Quote No.27192] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Here are some facts and figures about bear share markets between 1980 and 2008, that gives you some idea of what to expect: - Number of downturns >10% since 1980 = 7 [Australia], 6 [International], 5 [US]; - Average decline (%) = -21.3 [Australia], -22.1 [International], -24.2 [US]; - Average period of decline (months) = 8 [Australia], 13 [International], 11 [US]; - Average recovery period (months) = 16 [Australia], 17 [International], 15 [US]; - Total market down time (months) = 24 [Australia], 30 [International], 26 [US]." - Vanguard

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[Quote No.27201] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Success in investing doesn't correlate with I.Q. ...Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that get other people into trouble in investing. [namely fear and greed]" - Warren Buffett
master stock market investor
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[Quote No.27202] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Learn to ignore short-term 'noise' and concentrate on long-term performance." - Seymour@imagi-natives.com

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[Quote No.27204] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The Producer Price Index - PPI - is an indicator of inflation at the wholesale or input level. The core PPI excludes food and energy. Increases in these indexes suggest that costs are increasing for firms and while the firms might absorb some of these increases for a time by reducing their profit margins, eventually these increases are passed on to consumers 'down stream' in the form of increased retail prices and increases in the Consumer Price Index - CPI." - Unknown

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[Quote No.27216] Need Area: Money > Invest
"In the four great investment booms we have described, and also in previous investment manias, once the boom came to an end [and busted], most, if not all, of the price gains that occurred during the mania were given back. In 1992, silver prices were lower than they had been in 1974. In 2003, the Nikkei was lower than at its high in 1981. In 2002, in dollar terms, most Latin American markets were no higher than in 1990 and most Asian markets had declined to their mid- or late 1980s level. By 1998, the Russian stock market had given back its entire advance since 1994; and in 2002, most high-tech and telecommunication stocks were no higher than they had been in 1996 or 1997. And in those manias where prices didn't retreat in nominal terms to the level - or, as frequently happened, to below the level - from where the investment boom had begun (as was the case in 1932), prices retreated in inflation adjusted terms to those levels." - Marc Faber
Respected international investor and financial commentator. Quoted from his article, 'A Modern History of Investment Booms', published March 8th, 2007 in The Daily Reckoning Australia.
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[Quote No.27220] Need Area: Money > Invest
"...the best thing you can do for your portfolio is to invest in stocks in the middle of a recession. The reason is simple. The market runs ahead of the economy. While the economy is mired in a deep funk, the market is racing ahead - anticipating a recovery. Instead of continuing to drop, it breaks its fall, turns around, and heads back up. But don't try to predict when this will happen. Wait for it. See it with your own eyes. Then jump in. A good place to start would be with value companies or mutual funds specializing in value investing. It'll feel early. Just keep reminding yourself: We live in the present. The market lives in the future." - Andrew Gordon
Editor of 'Income', a monthly financial advisory service.
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[Quote No.27222] Need Area: Money > Invest
"When considering consumer spending increases for the month [i.e. 0.4%] reduce this by the inflation increase that month [i.e. - 0.3%] to see the actual volume increase [i.e. - 0.1%] - rather than the price and volume increase combined [i.e. 0.4%]." - Unknown

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[Quote No.27223] Need Area: Money > Invest
"When a boom has been going on for some time it is wise to reduce your portfolio's exposure to a potential bust scenario. The first stocks to be considered for partial or full sale should be those likely to be most effected by a rise in interest rates. The reason for this is that a booming economy eventually creates inflation and this is usually addressed by the central bank raising interest rates to reduce demand. So carefully assess those investments in companies that have borrowed heavily because their ability to refinance those loans at equivalent interest rates will become progressively harder and the higher rates plus the reduced demand from their customers using borrowed funds will mean lower profits through either a reduction in sales volume or profit margins per unit sale or both. The next investments to consider selling are those companies that export because when interest rates rise the value of the currency rises too. This is because global fund managers seek to find the best interest rate for the funds under their management and therefore a rise in interest rates can often attract more overseas money. Their demand for the currency in order to invest it in the country drives up its price against other currencies that have lower interest rates and therefore are not as much in demand. As the currency rises the cost in overseas markets of the exporting companies goods either goes up in the foreign currencies or the exporting company has to reduce their profit margins to keep the same prices and sales volumes. Both result in falling profits and earnings for the company and therefore its justifiable price by price earnings [p/e] ratios. Prioritise the investments in these companies identified using these stress tests and reduce your exposure to these dangers by selling them bit by bit while the market still wants to buy them. If the market continues to boom well above its long term average growth rate it is then worth considering reducing the remaining investments. In this way you realise the capital gains from 'Maybe Money' into 'real - bankable, spendable money' before the eventual inevitable bust. After the bust the cash from the sales can be reinvested carefully to ride the boom upside again before repeating the whole sales process again before the next bust." - Seymour@imagi-natives.com

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[Quote No.27225] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The financial [global share investing] day starts in Sydney, moves to Tokyo, travels over the Silk Road through India to the oil fields in the Middle East, then to that hedge fund haven in London, and on across the Atlantic to New York, the mercantile exchange in Chicago, through California and eventually back to Sydney where it all begins again. Round and round it goes...it never stops." - Dan Denning
Managing Editor, The Daily Reckoning Australia
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[Quote No.27226] Need Area: Money > Invest
"It's our firm belief - and our real experience - that the most valuable money-making tool in financial and investment markets is an open - but critical [skeptical] - mind." - Dan Denning
Managing Editor, The Daily Reckoning Australia
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