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  Quotations - Invest  
[Quote No.27227] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Ask a successful investor what his most valuable quality is and there's a good chance he'll tell you it's scepticism. Why? Scepticism toward the fads and fashions of investment brokers and government bureaucrats helps you avoid the common, wealth-destroying mistakes that most investors make...[and] in our humble experience, a willingness to go against the crowd is what turns average investors into great ones." - Dan Denning
Managing Editor, The Daily Reckoning Australia
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[Quote No.27236] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The research conducted by MIT finance professor Jonathan Lewellen has given much credibility to the theory of mean reversion. According to Lewellen's findings, up to 40% of the market's annual returns are temporary, and will usually reverse within the next 18 months. Curiously, he also found that a stock's 3 and 5-year trailing returns are negatively correlated to the subsequent 12 to 18 month period. In other words, tomorrow's stock prices will often move in the opposite direction of yesterday's." - John DiStanislao
Editor, 'Margin-of-Safety Investing'
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[Quote No.27237] Need Area: Money > Invest
"I think in terms of E/P instead of P/E." - Ken Fisher
He founded an investment firm that manages more than $30 billion with over 800 employees. He writes the Forbes 'Portfolio Strategy' column and has written three books about investing.
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[Quote No.27241] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Beware the glib helper [financial advisor] who fills your head with fantasies while he fills his pockets with fees." - Warren Buffett
Famous share investor
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[Quote No.27242] Need Area: Money > Invest
"To date, Dexter is the worst deal that I've made [Warren Buffett writes in refreshing honesty - which is a hallmark of value investing in order to improve their undestanding and performance - of Berkshire's 1993 purchase of the shoe company for $433 million in stock.] But I'll make more mistakes in the future - you can bet on that." - Warren Buffett
Famous share investor
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[Quote No.27250] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Insurance companies use the premiums before they are needed, called their float, in investments in the share market. This means that insurance company profits are linked to the share market as well as acts of nature. Therefore, all else being equal, insurance company profits will be higher during share market booms but also lower in times when the share market is not booming." - Unknown

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[Quote No.27251] Need Area: Money > Invest
"A large part of investing is recognizing potential disasters. [that is calculating risk accurately - not just reward]" - Professor John Price
Publisher of the Conscious Investor investing software.
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[Quote No.27254] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Nobody ever lost money taking a profit." - Bernard M. Baruch

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[Quote No.27269] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Put all good eggs into one basket and then watch the basket." - Andrew Carnegie
(1835 - 1919), Scottish - American industrialist, philanthropist and at one time the richest man in the world. From his book, ‘Autobiography’ p190.
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[Quote No.27281] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Here's an important lesson I have learned throughout the years: when certain stocks (let alone a whole sector) stand out with an unusually high dividend yield, this is more often a warning signal than a good buying opportunity. More often than not, investors who jump on the dividend opportunity find out later the decline of the 'P' (as in Price/Earnings ratio) simply preceded the decline of the 'E'. In other words: investors better not get blinded by the fact that share prices already have fallen some 30% and that dividend yields have now soared to 7%, because once earnings start falling, these [dividend yield] numbers can change in the blink of an eye." - Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
Editor FNArena
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[Quote No.27282] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[As an insolvency and turnaround specialist] We tend to see a spike in people seeking help at the announcement of interest rate rises." - Riad Tayeh
partner at Sydney, Australia, insolvency and turnaround firm de Vries Tayeh
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[Quote No.27295] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The art market does tend to follow stock market leads but there's usually a lag of one or two years behind it." - Dr. Roger Dedman
a PhD in mathematics who over a long period devised an Art Market Index which allows a realistic comparison of the Australian art market to the Australian All Ordinaries Share Index. He is also the nationally acclaimed author of the ‘Australian Art Market Movements Handbook’ which gives insights into art investment, analysis of the financial performance of individual artists and the health and direction of the art market as a whole.
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[Quote No.27296] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Art tends to be a long term investment. During 2000-01, for example, the Sotheby's Australian art index (an index of prices) increased by 6%. However, for the five years to June 30, 2001, the index increased by 90% [or about 14% per year compounded each year]. Similarly, the author of the Australian Art Market Movements Handbook, Roger Dedman, has estimated that his index of 60 of Australia's biggest-selling artists (by value and volume) increased by 10% during 2001." - Unknown

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[Quote No.27297] Need Area: Money > Invest
"No matter what route you choose to follow [if you choose to invest in art], there is one rule above all others that you must obey: Collect pictures that you really like. [...because investing in this field won't always make money, or as much as could have been made elsewhere, and then at least you have enjoyed the art in the mean time, which can't be said for all other investments.]" - Tim Hewat
Author of 'Fine Art is Real Money - The Intelligent Investor's Guide To Buying Paintings'.
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[Quote No.27299] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Never an easy commodity to analyse or predict, gold is today being driven largely by its role as a global currency. It is, in effect, riding high on the collapse of the US dollar [in which it is denominated, as the U.S. Federal Reserve dramatically lowers its interest rate to avoid recession]...But gold’s function as a safe haven in times of uncertainty [and inflation] will not last forever. A time will come when owners of gold will once complain about the fact that in its physical form it is non-interest bearing. As always, the most persuasive evidence that a gold-price peak is approaching can be found in the attitude of [gold] miners, the principal beneficiaries of a high price, and the people with most to lose in the event of a price fall. That’s why a changing attitude towards forward selling, or hedging, is an important test of what might lie ahead...Since the gold price started rising strongly it has been fashionable for [gold] miners to abandon or buy back their forward sales, largely because investors have demanded full exposure to the [sharply rising] spot gold price. This has generated some spectacular short-term losses, but achieved the objective of making miners such as Australia’s leading gold producer, Newcrest, a more appealing investment because it has become a cleaner proxy for owning physical gold...Watching what the [gold] miners do...will be critical to picking the gold price trend because any consistent pattern of fresh hedging means that the people mining gold reckon it’s time to protect their revenue. If you’re a gold stock investor you might consider doing the same." - Tim Treadgold
Australian Mining and Resources Journalist
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[Quote No.27300] Need Area: Money > Invest
"When banks need to raise funds for capital adequacy, bad debt provisions and losses, or more loans growth they can firstly try to raise deposit interest rates. They can also try to raise funds from overseas lenders. If this is not enough, they can initiate capital raisings by issuing new equity capital through rights issues or placements. This while helpful to shore up balance sheets and enable loan growth will lead to earnings per share dilution and therefore a flattening or fall in their share price. It is therefore best to consider waiting until this capital raising has been achieved before investing in banks that have sustained bad debt losses, etc and need to rebuild their funds." - Unknown

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[Quote No.27301] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Real estate in] Beachside locations, particularly regional ones, generally fall into the category of 'discretionary' property. When interest rates are rising or owners need to sell assets, it is usually the discretionary property that is sold first." - Monique Wakelin
a director of Wakelin Property Advisory and author of 'Streets Ahead - How to Make Money From Residential Property'.
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[Quote No.27302] Need Area: Money > Invest
"There is still a common belief that property markets suddenly 'boom' and equally suddenly 'bust'. While the notion may appeal to the media – especially because Australians are obsessed with property – this is not how markets move in reality. Property moves in cycles, generally over eight to 12 years from the technical bottom to the technical peak, and you can only see the polarities after the event. Depending on economic conditions, a market will begin an upward price cycle and climb relatively slowly to reach a price peak; upon reaching a peak, we don’t usually see a sudden 'collapse'. When a property market heads into a flatter period, it takes two to four years for prices to level off and resume more normal patterns. Property owners, unlike sharemarket investors, tend not to rush into selling mode as their first resort." - Monique Wakelin
a director of Wakelin Property Advisory and author of 'Streets Ahead - How to Make Money From Residential Property'.
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[Quote No.27303] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The important lesson of every...economic downturn [bust, recession, etc] is that whether you are invested in shares, property or a business, do not go into the downturn with high levels of debt. [Ensure you de-leverage before that, or the leverage that accelerated your return on equity in the good years will accelerate your downfall in the bad years.]" - Robert Gottliebsen
Very highly respected Australian financial journalist and past winner of the Walkley [Journalism] Award.
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[Quote No.27304] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Research by Phil Anderson of Economic Indicator Services, has shown there is a recurring pattern of investors moving into the property market when they perceive that a bull share market has ended. His research has also shown that there is a consistent pattern of property moving in an 18-20 year cycle from trough to trough or peak to peak in Australian, United Kingdom and United States real estate markets. i.e. 1956-74, 1975-92, 1993-2010. For example in Australia the last peak was around 1989-90.]...historically, the times when credit is the easiest to get usually occurs between years 11 and 13 [in Australia between 2004-06] in the 18–20 year cycle... Modelling clearly shows that at the end of each upward phase of the property cycle, affordability has been an issue, as has personal indebtedness and the ability to service highly geared assets. Whether this comes about through inflation and rising interest rates or the fact that unbridled lending practices have made very high levels of finance available is not the point. It is the level of indebtedness that makes the market vulnerable... In the past, the end of the 18–20 year cycle has been very, very painful for those speculators [that enter towards the end of the cycle in a highly geared way]. Unlike the prudent long-term investor [who enters the real estate market early in the cycle and is not highly geared towards its end], we’ve never seen a soft landing for the speculators." - Phil Anderson
the managing director of Economic Indicator Services [EIS] which has Australian, U.S. and United Kingdom partners. He has tracked and modelled property cycles in the U.S., U.K. and Australia for over 100 years, with Fred Harrison, also a director of EIS. The latter wrote a book about this research called 'Boom Bust: House Prices and the Great Depression of 2010'.
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[Quote No.27305] Need Area: Money > Invest
"...it’s important to understand that investing is work. It is not gambling, or wishing and hoping, or trying to get the inside dope: it is work; a second job. [but it can be both intellectually fascinating and financially rewarding!]" - Alan Kohler
Respected Australian financial journalist since 1971, a commentator with the ABC and John Fairfax and publisher of independent investment newsletter, 'Eureka Report'.
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[Quote No.27307] Need Area: Money > Invest
"We're perfectly willing to trade away a big payoff for a certain payoff." - Warren Buffett
Famous value share investor
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[Quote No.27308] Need Area: Money > Invest
"I would rather be certain of a good result than hopeful of a great one." - Warren Buffett
Famous value share investor
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[Quote No.27334] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Be wary of even audited accounts as these have been found faulty in the past especially if complex and even more so if the accountancy firm also profits from accountancy and advisory fees from the company they are auditing. Remember when things go wrong the accountants are not the ones that are held accountable, using the tired excuse that, 'It's not our fault. We can only sign-off on what directors give us'. There are few ways to protect your investments from this kind of negligence except: to be highly sceptical of any company using complex accounting; to ask, 'Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? [Who is guarding the guards?]' and; to demand that regulators take a firm supervisory role." - Unknown

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[Quote No.27335] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The average U.S. recession lasts 15 months and the U.S share market usually bottoms out an average of 5 months before the recession ends. [This makes sense if we remember that the share market is a forward-looking economic indicator.]" - Unknown

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[Quote No.27336] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Bear markets are characterised by lower highs and lower lows. They are also characterised by sharp rises that some investors trying to pick the bottom of the bear market take for the beginning of a new bull market. Often this is not the case. It is rather that large hedge funds that have gone short [selling shares they don't have yet] have had to buy the shares they sold to crystalise their profits, especially if some good economic news has come out. This is called a short covering rally. As further bad news comes out the short sellers will come back selling into the market pushing it still lower, especially driving out the remaining investors still using margin loans, as they get margin calls but decide not to ante up any more capital. Usually the end of the bear market occurs when even bad news doesn't make the market fall any lower." - Unknown

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[Quote No.27337] Need Area: Money > Invest
"When considering employment data [that is unemployment figures are worked on those employed at date of survey] and data on jobs advertised [a forward look at employment in four months] remember that it takes employers around four months to hire new staff – from advertising for positions, to interviews, and then to the first day of a new job. So the difference between these and the change with these to previous corresponding periods can help monitor economic, business, employment and spending cycles." - Unknown

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[Quote No.27339] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Reversion to Mean performance can be easily seen by studying the 10% average yearly return on the Australian All Ordinaries Index over nearly 70-years.] It doesn't prove anything because the market tends to dip under that trend at times. But it's not been a bad sort of long-term measure of appraisal of where a market is. Remarkable how it's come back to that trend line." - Bruce Teele
[1938 - ], Chairman of the oldest, largest and best known, share market listed, licensed investment company, Australian Foundation Investment Company [AFI], after a highly successful career managing the Australian brokerage house J.B. Were and Son.
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[Quote No.27348] Need Area: Money > Invest
"...despite all the evidence that stock returns are hard to forecast in the short run, this simple theory of mean reversion is basically right..." - John Campbell and Robert Shiller
economists: John Campbell of Harvard University and Robert Shiller of Yale University. Quoted from a 1998 paper entitled 'Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update' based upon their joint testimony before the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors in 1996.
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[Quote No.27352] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Back in the 19th century goldfields, it was often not the miners - particularly the explorers - who made money but those who sold them their pots and pans. By following the same logic an investor can invest in the resource service sector, rather than the pure mining companies or explorers, as a way to benefit from any resources boom and therefore the increasing volumes, without a commensurate exposure to volatile resource prices or the risks of exploring often unsuccessfully or unprofitably." - Unknown

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[Quote No.27356] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The correlation between the advertising market growth, growth in profits and business investment is very high. It's also related to consumption...[When he explained why he was down grading earnings expectations in the media sectors, including advertising and newspapers, due to reduced expectations for business investment-including job ads- and consumer spending-including real estate ads- following the raising of central bank interest rates.] " - Christian Guerra
Goldman Sachs JBWere media analyst in Australia in 2008
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[Quote No.27357] Need Area: Money > Invest
"In our view...derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal." - Warren Buffett
in Buffett's 2002 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders.
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[Quote No.27365] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The lowest ebb is the turn of the tide." - Henry Wadsworth Longfellow

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[Quote No.27371] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Rallies in bearish markets are the most violent of all...[so in bear markets expect greater volatility including one day rises of even 5 percent only to see it all evaporate and fall even more over the next few days. These are called bear market rallies, short covering rallies or less politely 'suckers' rallies.]" - Charlie Aitken
a director of Southern Cross Equities
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[Quote No.27374] Need Area: Money > Invest
"One of the sure fire signs a stockmarket cycle is approaching its peak [in the boom and is about to bust] is when stockbrokers begin buying each other and floating their own firms. " - Michael West
Australian financial journalist for the Sydney Morning Herald
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[Quote No.27386] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[In market downturns, slumps and busts]...traditionally defensive sectors [those that lose less] have been those connected to the basic necessities of life where even if economies go into recession consumption holds up. Here are sectors like food, food retailing, food packaging, beverages, healthcare, funerals and perhaps the vices of gambling and tobacco." - Unknown

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[Quote No.27387] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Huge write-downs on bank balance sheets, due to imprudent loans for example, result in impaired capital and therefore an inability to lend until new capital has been raised and confidence restored, which is called a credit crunch. It usually take about a year before economic growth starts to recover and another year for it to reach the previous trend growth rate. The slow response initially is because lenders are unwilling to lend at almost any price [due to a raised awareness of ongoing risk and the need to have adequate capital to cover any further write-downs] and so easing monetary policy [by reducing interest rates to stimulate lending and economic growth] becomes a little like pushing on a string. However, monetary policy does work in most developed economies – in the end - as the bad debts become clear and are written-down, new capital is raised and confidence in the economy and therefore supply and demand is restored." - Unknown

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[Quote No.27388] Need Area: Money > Invest
"In trying to determine when a market is overvalued or undervalued, one widely viewed measure of market valuation is the earnings yield/bond yield ratio. Investors use rolling 12-month forward consensus earnings forecasts to calculate the earnings yield and compare it to the 5-year bond and that market's historical average:- just below 1.0 is the Australian historical average; above this say 1.2 suggests equities are relatively cheap; below 0.9 suggests they are relatively expensive. Therefore let's say if there was s a drop in bond yields due to an easing of monetary policy [falling central bank interest rates] for example this measure might show that the share market as looking cheap by historical standards and encourage investors to start reinvesting after a slump." - Unknown

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[Quote No.27389] Need Area: Money > Invest
"When trying to determine when to invest in bank shares after a share market slump or bust, it is worth noting the monetary policy in the U.S and that in the bank's own country. As real U.S. cash rates (Fed Fund rate – the US inflation rate) fall below zero this has historically provided a floor to most bank stock prices around the world. Since 1980, a real Fed Funds rate below zero has always provided a floor for banks stock prices and led to higher share prices in coming months. The message here for investors is 'Don’t bet against the Fed'. An additional boost can come when the bank's own country's central bank eases monetary policy to the point that that country's real cash rates (Prime interest rate rate – the country's inflation rate) also falls below zero. In considering which bank it is also wise to take into consideration the bank's potential for bad-debt write-downs, the ongoing demand for loans within that bank's market, relative and historical p/e and dividend yields, etc." - Unknown

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[Quote No.27396] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The value investor argues that fundamental analysis is better. The trader argues that technical analysis is better. Which way is a novice investor to turn? In the long run, the fundamentals may be better. But when it comes to short-term trading, I base most of my decisions on technical analysis, and then use sentiment analysis as a secondary driver." - Rick Pendergraft
Professional [short-term] trader [rather than long-term investor] and market analyst. He teaches investors how to read chart patterns and how to take advantage of them in his K.I.S.S. trading program.
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[Quote No.27398] Need Area: Money > Invest
"If you look over the last 10 years [1998-2008], the S&P in the US has rallied 3 per cent [in one day] on 20 separate occasions. Every one of those 20 occasions was in a bear market. That's what happens in bear markets. [There is increased volatility.]" - Nick Parsons
head of market strategy at NAB capital in London
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[Quote No.27399] Need Area: Money > Invest
"We have two classes of [economic] forecasters: those who don't know...and those who don't know they don't know." - John Kenneth Galbraith
(1908 - 2006), America's most famous economist. He was Canadian-born and trained at Berkeley.
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[Quote No.27400] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Picking the top of a market cycle is tough...The warning signs are usually there in the form of a sustained run in prices, stretched valuations, increasing use of leverage, and the fear that if you don't get in now you'll miss out. But there are always good arguments for the market to keep rising, and we want to believe the ride will last just a bit longer. When markets are falling the counter-signals are also there. Big price falls, low price-earnings ratios, high dividend yields, a general mood of pessimism, and the unwinding of debt can all signal it's time to buy. But just as optimism and greed can cloud your thinking in a bull market, bear markets are characterised by fear and uncertainty. When we don't know whether there's more bad news around the corner how do we know prices won't fall even further?" - Annette Sampson
Australian financial journalist
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[Quote No.27401] Need Area: Money > Invest
"For long-term investors knowing the long-term average return can help them know when the market is becoming riskier - when it rises above the long-term average return, and when it is becoming safer - when it is falling below the long-term average return. This allows them to consider either lowering their share market investment allocation if the market is above the long-term average return or raising it if it is below. That is not to say that in the short-term the market may not rise considerably above or below this long-term average return. Only that over long periods, for example ten years or so, the market has a remarkable ability to return to the long-term average return. In the short-term there is always a plausible explanation for why it is either above or below the long-term average. This very plausibility, combined with a short-term focus, is what causes the market to move so far from the long-term return. Value [long-term] investors warn against believing the hype that always becomes common when the market deviates from the long-term average return, in both booms and busts, for example, 'It is different this time'. It is well to remember and keep repeating the truism, 'The more things change, the more they stay the same', in order to keep your perspective and disciplined investment strategy." - Seymour@imagi-natives.com

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[Quote No.27428] Need Area: Money > Invest
"It is unwise to be too sure of one's own wisdom. It is healthy to be reminded that the strongest might weaken and the wisest might err." - Mahatma Gandhi

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[Quote No.27429] Need Area: Money > Invest
"It's going to take more than a week for the market to turn around. So, right away, you'll know that a market revival isn't a done deal. After one good week, it's very possible the market will head down again. That's only bad if it goes down further than its previous low. If it doesn't, that could be a sign that the market is recovering. But before you jump back in, watch for it to go back up. If it goes higher than its previous high, that would be another good sign. To make sure the market has indeed turned around, it should make higher lows and higher highs two more times. Now, in order to lock in your conclusion that the market has reversed directions, do a Google search for ISM (Institute for Supply Management). Find their latest readings for the manufacturing and service sectors. If they're both over 50, it means both are expanding. That's all there is to it. It's not right 100 percent of the time, but it's 100 times more reliable than trying to make sense out of the latest hysterical/euphoric headlines." - Andrew Gordon
editor of 'Income', a monthly financial advisory service.
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[Quote No.27432] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Globalisation means everything is connected to the US, the engine room of the global economy, including China." - Michael West
Australian Financial journalist, quoted in 2008.
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[Quote No.27434] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Better to be safe than sorry." - American Proverb

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[Quote No.27435] Need Area: Money > Invest
"There's a time to go long...there's a time to go short...and there's a time to go fishing." - Jesse Livermore
legendary Wall Street trader, who made a fortune during the 1929 crash and wrote a book called 'How to trade in stocks'.
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[Quote No.27436] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Be careful about trying to time the bottom of busting markets because bear markets often make many attempts to rise before falling further.]...when there really is nothing about you but doom and gloom – you should reinvest gradually. If you wait for the perfect moment to make your big bet, it will almost certainly be too early, and if not too early, then too late...For example, it took three years for the Dow Jones to fall 89% in the 1929 bear market and investors fought like polecats all the way down, resolutely buying the dips and losing more money every time. However, buying in 1932, in the midst of the Depression, when there was desperate gloom all around, was a very fine idea. [The panic on October 24, 1929, was a direct and immediate result of several interest rate increases by the Fed designed to cool a stockmarket boom that had taken the Dow from 60 to 400. Margin loan investors were the first to go as the Dow fell from 400 to 145 in a month. The 1929 stockmarket crash caused the Great Depression because many banks had invested their depositors’ money in stocks and as the market crashed, the situation quickly got away from the Fed and bank runs started across America. Ten thousand banks failed and $US140 billion of depositors’ money was lost.] And worse than that, the Japanese bear market that began in 1991 lasted for 12 years. The Nikkei index peaked at 40,000 and finally bottomed at 8000 in 2003. Those who bought the dips during that time were wiped out, and certainly the old maxim of buying and holding stocks for long-term gains did not apply. [In the late 1980s Japan had the misfortune to experience an incredible property bubble, equal to or greater than the sharemarket bubble. Between 1986 and 1988 the value of land in greater Tokyo doubled. Tokyo was suddenly worth more than the United States; at one point the Imperial Palace was worth more than Australia. (I'm not kidding!) The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to cool the property market and housing values fell for 14 years in a row. The Nikkei crashed by half within months.]" - Alan Kohler
Respected Australian Financial commentator
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