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  Quotations - Invest  
[Quote No.27437] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Be careful about trying to time the bottom of busting markets because bear markets often make many attempts to rise before falling further.]...when there really is nothing about you but doom and gloom – you should reinvest gradually. If you wait for the perfect moment to make your big bet, it will almost certainly be too early, and if not too early, then too late...For example, it took three years for the Dow Jones to fall 89% in the 1929 bear market and investors fought like polecats all the way down, resolutely buying the dips and losing more money every time. However, buying in 1932, in the midst of the Depression, when there was desperate gloom all around, was a very fine idea. [The panic on October 24, 1929, was a direct and immediate result of several interest rate increases by the Fed designed to cool a stockmarket boom that had taken the Dow from 60 to 400. Margin loan investors were the first to go as the Dow fell from 400 to 145 in a month. The 1929 stockmarket crash caused the Great Depression because many banks had invested their depositors’ money in stocks and as the market crashed, the situation quickly got away from the Fed and bank runs started across America. Ten thousand banks failed and $US140 billion of depositors’ money was lost.] And worse than that, the Japanese bear market that began in 1991 lasted for 12 years. The Nikkei index peaked at 40,000 and finally bottomed at 8000 in 2003. Those who bought the dips during that time were wiped out, and certainly the old maxim of buying and holding stocks for long-term gains did not apply. [In the late 1980s Japan had the misfortune to experience an incredible property bubble, equal to or greater than the sharemarket bubble. Between 1986 and 1988 the value of land in greater Tokyo doubled. Tokyo was suddenly worth more than the United States; at one point the Imperial Palace was worth more than Australia. (I'm not kidding!) The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to cool the property market and housing values fell for 14 years in a row. The Nikkei crashed by half within months.]... [In bear markets] Normal rules may not apply. For example, the market price/earnings (P/E) multiple...[may look] cheap historically, but it might actually be expensive in the light of future earnings. No one thought in November 1929 that the Dow would eventually fall 90%. Most people were buying then. No one thought in early 1973 that the market would fall 50% over two years. And no one thought in 1991 that the almighty Japanese stockmarket – then 50% of the world market capitalisation – would be just 10% of global market capitalisation after 10 years. There will be rallies, including very strong ones of 10% or more, but that doesn’t mean the bear market is over. Bear market traps can look very enticing.... be wary of simple formulas, of easy ways of picking bargains during the bear market. Listen to ideas...but invest in stages, and don’t make any big bets." - Alan Kohler
Respected Australian Financial commentator
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[Quote No.27444] Need Area: Money > Invest
"When markets bust and start falling fast, they are prone to have a dead cat bounce. So what is a dead cat bounce [sometimes called a 'sucker's rally' or a 'short covering rally']? A market that has been falling but then jumps high and fast is likely to be in the process of making a dead cat bounce. The term is derived from the notion that 'even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height'. It’s usual for the worst of the bear stocks to have some of the biggest rallies. The problem with a fast rally is that the drama of the gains attract impulse buying investors who don’t want to miss out. We say things to ourselves like: 'XYZ company at $20 when it was trading $10 just a week ago; it must be going back to its all-time highs of $50'. For short-term traders the dead cat bounce is still a dangerous proposition: buying when the market has shown abject negativity and then attempting to sell before it resumes the downtrend, most often with little warning. But it’s long-term investors that are most naïve about the dead cat trap. Here are some warning signs for the dead cat bounce: Characteristics of the dead cat bounce 1. Unchecked losses - A dead cat bounce is more likely to occur (and occur more dramatically) if there has been a set of major unretraced losses. When a market drops like a stone, rather than meanders lower, it is likely to get oversold. The act of backtracking the losses on a regular basis throughout the course of the losses makes a dead cat bounce less likely to occur. It’s when a market falls with force, often including gaps down along the way, that a dead cat bounce is a high probability. 2. High volatility - A dead cat bounce is characterised by high volatility. However that may not be immediately obvious because volatility is usually high leading to the correction low. One-day gains of between 4% to 8% are the kind of rates of gains to be expected in a dead cat bounce. 3. No-warning reversals - Picking tops and bottoms is difficult at the best of times, but a dead cat bounce usually starts and finishes with little warning. When normally we are vigilant for double bottom patterns, reversal days, and other basing signals, the start of a dead cat bounce often starts with a false breakout to the downside or a series of wide-range up days following a period of wide-range down days. The same can happen when the dead cat bounce is over. Prices can appear to stop and reverse at no apparent significant level. In contrast, a serious reversal of a downtrend is more likely to happen without the drama. A long-term basing pattern takes weeks or months (and sometimes years) to form and that means lots of back and forth between a relatively tight range before serious gains are made. Conclusions There are occasions when a dead cat bounce can become part of a larger recovery pattern. In that situation the gains of the dead cat bounce are usually retraced, but the stock then finds support near or at the lows of the beginning of the dead cat bounce. This means those rebounding stocks may or may not be in the process of recovering. It all depends on whether the next sell off takes them to their recent lows. There is no way to know for sure how far a dead cat bounce will travel before it runs our of steam, but a common destination is the last major rebound low of the downtrend. In theory, a dead cat bounce can give investors a second chance to exit a loser. But in reality, most will watch a dead cat bounce and think the worst is over forever. For that reason it can be a trap, encouraging long-term investors to buy into, or stay in, a position that has no chance of regaining its long-term uptrend." - Unknown

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[Quote No.27446] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The time to buy is when there is blood in the streets, even if it's your own." - Baron von Rothschild
Famous banker and investor
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[Quote No.27447] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Fortunes are made by buying low and selling too soon." - Baron Von Rothschild
Famous banker and investor
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[Quote No.27449] Need Area: Money > Invest
"While it is true that past performance is no guarantee of future results, if you take the recessions in the U.S.A. since 1950 to 2007 and average the results you will find that the falling GDP - recessions - lasted an average of 10 months, the share market fell for an average of only 5 months totalling an average fall of 24.4% and then rose an average of 31.4% in the first 12 months for an average rise of 56% over the next 24 months." - Unknown

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[Quote No.27452] Need Area: Money > Invest
"It's been said a million times before, but let's make it a million and one because some investors still don't get it. Any fool can make money in a bull market, but it's damned hard to turn a profit in a bear market...There are quite a few traps in bear markets, but the fundamental one of thinking each fall is the last [and buying in the dip] - and each rally the sign of a new bull market [and therefore trying to buy before it goes up further - only to see it then reverse and fall below the previous low] - is probably the most disheartening. Another is the value trap. And again it is the result of thinking that would have rewarded you in a bull market. If [a company's]...shares were reasonable value - or even just a bit overvalued - at $60, they must be a screaming buy at $40, right? After all, they're trading at about 10 times earnings and offering a dividend yield of more than 6 per cent. Buying companies on low PE ratios and strong dividend yields is a sure way to make money in a bull market - again, unless you've chosen a dud. Profits tend to grow and there's a good chance your stock will be re-rated and recognised for its value. But in a bear market, value can be deceptive. The question is not how a company is faring on the profit front now, but whether it can sustain its earnings and dividend in a less accommodating economic climate... [And therefore this should be carefully considered before investing or selling. There is also] another trap - not realising that so-called 'safe havens' [or what are sometimes called defensive stocks] are just as vulnerable to changing market sentiment as stocks that are known to be vulnerable. [and therefore the investor who stays in shares must stay vigilant]." - Annette Sampson
Australian finanacial journalist
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[Quote No.27459] Need Area: Money > Invest
"...I don't think we should talk ourselves into a recession, because you have to be careful [of] creating a self-fulfilling prophecy..." - Elmer Funke Kupper
Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of casinos and wagering company, Tabcorp.
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[Quote No.27460] Need Area: Money > Invest
"...in times of uncertainty, conservatism, [and] cash, matters." - Elmer Funke Kupper
Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of casinos and wagering company, Tabcorp.
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[Quote No.27462] Need Area: Money > Invest
"When share markets boom, a lot of investors assume it'll stay that way. This inspires them to invent ways to leverage their prosperity. It often leads to questionable money-making ideas that depend on the ASX gaining at 20% a year. The common denominator in such a house of cards is usually debt. [including excessive, imprudent borrowing against share portfolios and real estate.]" - Al Robinson
Financial journalist for the 'Morning Money' journal
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[Quote No.27466] Need Area: Money > Invest
"When food prices rise and look like continuing to rise due to unfulfilled long-term sustainable demand it is worth considering investing in one of the most important ingredients - fertiliser and the companies that produce it." - Unknown

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[Quote No.27470] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Whatever has overstepped its due bounds [for example, its long-term, sustainable growth rate] is always in a state of instability." - Seneca

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[Quote No.27477] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Remember what diamond cutters say: 'They can't all be gems!' " - Saying

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[Quote No.27492] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Still, this [massive volatility up and down in short periods] is the pattern you get in a long-term bear market...The bear does his mauling. Then he backs off...makes you think it's over... suckers you back in and waits until you let your guard down. This see-saw battle between optimism and despair is why bear markets last so long." - Dan Denning
Australian financial journalist
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[Quote No.27493] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[As very successful business owners know, be wary of any employee, especially money managers who are]...encouraged to take risks, knowing that 'heads I win, tails I lose someone else's money'. [Because] Taking a big chunk of the gains, while not participating in the losses..[does not instill prudent risk taking behaviour and has been accurately called a business as well as a 'moral hazard']." - Bill Bonner
Successful author of financial and business books
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[Quote No.27494] Need Area: Money > Invest
"There will always be excesses [booms and busts] in financial markets." - Harvey Pitt
the twenty-sixth Chairman of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission - between 2001 and 2003.
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[Quote No.27497] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Of course, investors always think they see the end...long before the end actually comes [This is why there so many false rallies in a bear market]. In '29, the greatest economist of his day, Irving Fisher, proclaimed the sell-off over in November. The market 'was only shaking out the lunatic fringe', he observed. Of course, it soon shook out everyone else. And in 1990, the Japanese stock market also began to collapse. Then too, the greatest minds of the time - in America as well as in Japan - looked with favor on the Nikkei. The index hit its high of 39,000...and then began an historic decline. At 35,000...30,000...and 25,000 analysts pronounced the crisis over. Each time the Nikkei fell, it was another 'buying opportunity'. But the collapse didn't stop. It kept going until 80% of the Nikkei's capitalization had been wiped out. Now, 18 years later, you can still buy Japanese shares at 60% off." - Bill Bonner
author of books and articles on economic and financial subjects and the founder and president of Agora Publishing.
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[Quote No.27498] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Banks can do dumb lending year after year after year. But that isn't what creates the problem. It's when banks stop doing dumb lending." - Brian Johnson
JP Morgan banking analyst
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[Quote No.27500] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Markets in my experience almost always over-react in both directions. [in booms and busts]" - Henry Bosch
former chairman of the [Australian] National Companies and Securities Commission
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[Quote No.27501] Need Area: Money > Invest
"...whenever the sharemarket suffers a severe reverse, (more than 20%) the property market normally declines and can sometimes suffer a severe fall." - Robert Gottliebsen
Highly respected Australian financial journalist.
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[Quote No.27502] Need Area: Money > Invest
"History reveals that high institutional cash weightings [in their investment portfolios] have a similarly positive correlation with strong equity market performance [later in the year as the institutions have so much money they drive up prices as they buy]. In this regard recent [March 2008] figures from Trim Tabs (US markets liquidity indicator) reveal that US mutual fund cash weightings are at six-year highs. It is interesting that the Russell survey highlights a similar situation in Australia, with 60% of fund managers expecting cash to outperform equities. The aggressive actions of the Fed are imposing a harsh penalty on high US institutional cash weightings considering the Federal Funds Rate is 2.25% and February headline annualised inflation is approaching 4%. The Bernanke put, which has been aggressively exercised by the Fed in recent months, is virtually guaranteeing underperformance of cash versus equities considering real interest rates are now negative at –1.75%. [which is one way the Fed uses to drive institutions - once they think they have seen the worst of the sudden bear market falls - back into buying more shares and reinflate the share market]." - Charlie Aitken
head of institutional dealing at Southern Cross Equities
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[Quote No.27510] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The March 18th [2008] index level of 5163 [Australian All Ordinaries, four months previously it had been at 6,800] was quite likely the bottom for this cycle. At this level, we took the view that the opportunity costs of holding overweight positions in cash became excessive. We're among those who have been buying large-cap industrials (especially banks) since that time. Even if we do go lower than the March 18 level, the valuations we picked up through these purchases still make sense for three to five year time horizons. (Investors with shorter time horizons shouldn't be in shares.)" - Thomas Murphy
a senior analyst at Deutsche Bank
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[Quote No.27513] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Some investors trust their advisers too much...The ultimate message is caveat emptor [buyer beware]! " - Stephen Matthews
Australian Shareholders' Association director
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[Quote No.27514] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Margin lending is the term used to describe borrowing to invest, generally in shares, listed property trusts and managed funds. A margin loan is secured against these assets, and allows lending to a certain level, depending on the margin lender’s assessment. Many “blue-chip” companies will be given a loan to value ratio (LVR) of 70%, which means that 70% of the value of a holding can be financed by the loan. For example, a $100,000 investment in a portfolio of blue-chips could include $70,000 of borrowed money. If the value of the shares falls, the $70,000 is now worth more than 70% of the investment, so exceeding the maximum allowed. Then a “margin call” is made – to get the LVR back under the maximum – and the investor has to provide further cash (often by selling shares) or investments to secure the loan. An interesting twist on this, which catches investors out at times, is that margin lenders can change the LVR of a security. Often this happens at the worst time – after a sharp fall in the price of the particular security. An investor is then hit with a double-whammy: as the value of their holding falls sharply and the margin lender is no longer prepared to lend as much against the stock, the investor then has to scramble to stump up either cash or more investments to put off a margin call." - Scott Francis
independent financial planner based in Brisbane, Australia.
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[Quote No.27515] Need Area: Money > Invest
"In the nine US recessions since 1953, the sharemarket bottomed an average of six or seven months after a recession began and four to five months before it ended (the average duration of the recessions is 11 months). Of course the averages mask a lot of variation, but the start of recession is a strong signal that the market is going to bottom soon. The two variables in 2008 are: when did the recession start, and is it very different this time? Every recession is different, but some are more different than others. On Friday came the first clear evidence that a US recession has now begun: employment fell by 80,000 in March and the unemployment rate ticked above 5%. The weekly jobless claims data rose to more than 400,000, which only happens during recessions. Hours worked fell 1.2%, year-on-year, something else that only happens during recession." - Alan Kohler
Highly respected Australian financial journalist
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[Quote No.27516] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Investors need to be aware of their psychology and how it’s influencing their decisions and to resist being driven by it if they wish to maximise their wealth over the long term. [An investor’s psychology changes over the stages of the full boom-bust share market cycle. At the beginning of a boom, the investor feels first optimism, then excitement, next thrill and at the top of the boom, euphoria. As the share prices start to fall, as they always do, they feel first anxiety, then denial, next fear, depression, panic, and lastly capitulation and despondency at the lowest point [which is usually called a 'day of no hope' often around a year and a drop of between 20-50%, when the market bounces down dramatically to the lowest point in that bear market]. As the market then starts turning up again they feel first desperation, hope then relief and lastly optimism, where the cycle of emotions starts again.] The best way to make money is to buy when everyone else is capitulating and despondent (or to put it more graphically, there is ‘blood on the streets’)[and the market is at its lowest] and to sell when everyone else is euphoric [and the market is at its highest]." - Dr. Shane Oliver
AMP Chief Investment Strategist
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[Quote No.27517] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The Australian share market has had periods of significant negative returns [busts]: 1914 (start of WWI, – 22.4%); 1929 (Crash, – 46%); 1930-31 (the Great Depression); 1938-39 (recession); 1941-42 (WWII, -32%); 1949; 1952 (Korean War and the wool boom-bust, -34%); 1956; 1960-61 (credit squeeze and recession, -23%); 1964-65 (recession); 1970-71; 1973-74 (oil crisis, stagflation and Watergate, -59%); 1981-82 (recession); 1987-88 (share market crash); 1994 (bond crash); 1998 (liquidity crisis); 2001-03 (tech wreck and Sept 11, 2001 terrorist attack, -22%); 2007-08 (sub-prime mortgage crisis, -26%). The long-term capital return, not including dividends, for the market in general was still 6.9% over this time period – meaning it doubles approximately every 10 years. This is called the long-term median return for the Australian market." - Unknown

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[Quote No.27518] Need Area: Money > Invest
"People think the Federal Reserve can stop a bear market because they can throw money at it and lower interest rates. It is even more certain we can collectively stop a bear market if some fiscal stimulus is thrown in. To which I say, 'Oh, you mean like 2000 and 2002?'—when they threw what I call the greatest stimulus in American history, an unparalleled series of interest-rate cuts, cumulating in two, almost three, years of negative real returns, real interest rates coupled with a really substantial tax cut, which would never have happened without 9/11. The combination would have gotten the dead to walk, and it stopped the bear market eventually. But the Standard & Poor's 500 was down 50% and the Nasdaq—which was all anyone talked about back then—went down 78%. And a puny five to six years later, people are saying there is not going to be a bear market because the Fed is going to lower rates and because the government is going to have a stimulus package. But we have just been there, done that, and we had a nice bear market." - Jeremy Grantham
Chief Investment Strategist, GMO, quoted in 2008.
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[Quote No.27519] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Ten years would be a perfectly normal period of time to go from a peak of a great bubble [like the one in 2000 in the U.S.], based on the history of bubbles and their aftermath, to the low. I have long thought that 2010 would be when we hit the biggest discount to fair value. Trend-line [mean reversion] value on the S&P, by the way, in 2010 is 1100. (The S&P 500 traded at 1334 late last week.)" - Jeremy Grantham
Chief Investment Strategist, GMO, quoted in 2008.
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[Quote No.27520] Need Area: Money > Invest
"...the normal long-term average [U.S. share market mean reversion trend line is] (a 5.2% gain, inflation-adjusted)." - Jeremy Grantham
Chief Investment Strategist, GMO, quoted in 2008.
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[Quote No.27521] Need Area: Money > Invest
"there are a few near certainties in this business—not many, but a few—and one of them is that abnormally high profit margins will go back to normal. The timing is unfortunately shrouded in fog. The other near certainty is that house prices will go back to a normal multiple of family income. In the end, we, the people, have to be able to afford the houses and they are affordable at something around 2.8 times family income. When they peak in Boston at 6 times and nationally at 3.9 times, you know you are in for tough times...[The average house price] has to drop 20% to 25% to reach more normal levels, or if you prefer, it could wait five years for income to catch up, barring no big recessions. [which would shorten that time]" - Jeremy Grantham
Chief Investment Strategist, GMO, quoted in 2008.
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[Quote No.27522] Need Area: Money > Invest
"We always defined high-quality companies [which are the ones we like to invest in] as those with high and stable returns and low debt." - Jeremy Grantham
Chief Investment Strategist, GMO, quoted in 2008.
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[Quote No.27523] Need Area: Money > Invest
"...only academics prepared to ignore the facts in defense of a theory could support the silly idea of market efficiency. And...the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)!" - Jeremy Grantham
Chief Investment Startegist, GMO, late 2007.
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[Quote No.27544] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Credit-default swaps on GM debt reached their highest price since April 19, 2006, gaining 53 basis points to 1,130 basis points, according to CMA Datavision in New York. The contracts are designed to protect bondholders against default. An increase in price indicates a decline in the perception of a company's credit quality." - Unknown
Published by Bloomberg, April 7, 2008
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[Quote No.27545] Need Area: Money > Invest
"You've got to argue that earnings do revert to their [long-term] mean. [On almost every measure we've got for earnings, be it profit share of GDP, return on assets or margins]" - Gerard Minack
Morgan Stanley's chief market strategist
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[Quote No.27546] Need Area: Money > Invest
"When businesses and households start to worry about the size of their debts and begin cutting back their spending as a precautionary measure, that's when the economy really starts to slow. And it can feed on itself, with a small slowdown and small rise in job losses scaring people more and leading to a bigger slowdown and bigger job losses. That's when problems in the financial economy [sharemarket] cross over into the real economy of consumer spending and employment, turning a [recession's] soft landing into a hard one. There's no certainty that will happen, but it is a bigger risk than you'd like it to be - and than the authorities are ever likely to admit." - Ross Gittins
economics editor for the Australian Newspaper, the 'Herald'.
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[Quote No.27547] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Almost two centuries ago, as Napoleon marched on Waterloo, a scion of the Rothschild banking dynasty is said to have declared, 'The time to buy is when blood is running in the streets'. [Buying at this time is called 'vulture' or] 'Opportunity investing', as the trade is politely known, [and it] takes nerve: the best moment to buy is when others panic or are forced to sell something they wish they could keep. And the moment to buy is often clear only in hindsight...'The only time you really know you've reached the bottom is when you're back on the other side and things are going back up,' said Wilbur Ross, one of the deans of vulture investing." - Louise Story
Financial journalist with the Australian newspaper, the Sydney Morning Herald.
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[Quote No.27548] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The Australian dollar [which has risen over the last few years with the demand for Australian commodities and with rising interest rates] will fall as commodity prices ease over the next few years, which will be positive for exporters but bad for inflation. [as many imported goods will become more expensive]" - Nassim Khadem
Financial journalist with the Australian newspaper, 'The Age'.
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[Quote No.27549] Need Area: Money > Invest
"A country's monthly trade account [exports minus imports] can either be in surplus [positive] or deficit [negative]. It is helpful to think about this as if it were the finances of a company or a household, which is both earning [exporting] and buying [importing]. So if, for example, earnings [exports] exceed buying [imports] the company, household [country] is becoming richer." - Unknown

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[Quote No.27551] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Now, if we use the rule of thumb that US equities bottom out about half way through the recession, and assume a December starting date, we get an equity bottom in about April or May (on a 10-12 month recession)." - Matthew Johnson
senior economist at ICAP Australia, - April 7th, 2008
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[Quote No.27552] Need Area: Money > Invest
"When a country's currency is high, exporters find their goods are more expensive in foreign countries and therefore they sell less. Importers also find that they can now buy more from foreign countries for the same money. They also find they can keep prices lower and therefore sell more as well. Also a high currency encourages a country's citizens to go overseas for holidays as their money now buys more there and discourages foreigners from coming to the country for their holidays as their foreign currency now buys less than before. All these things can mean that, besides there being less profit and work for exporting manufacturers and the country's internal tourism industries, the country's trade account can go into deficit [more is bought and imported, than sold and exported], which is similar to a person who spends more than they earn and thereby gets progressively poorer." - Unknown

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[Quote No.27561] Need Area: Money > Invest
"If a country's currency appreciates but an exporter [for example, a mining company] sells on a fixed contract [let's say in U.S. dollars], the actual return to the exporter falls as the currency appreciates. This is why exporters [especially miners] often are in the news negotiating higher prices for their wares. [Other factors affecting these contract prices include demand and supply changes.]" - Unknown

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[Quote No.27562] Need Area: Money > Invest
"A country that is small or has a limited manufacturing base, must be careful not to import too much for fear of creating a trade deficit, where it buys and imports more than it sells and exports, thereby literally becoming poorer every year, like a spendthrift." - Unknown

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[Quote No.27563] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Banks and others should always remember]...when you lend large sums, look at the business model of your client and what would happen if you exercised your security. [or you may discover your collateral isn't worth what you thought it was.]" - Robert Gottliebsen
Highly respected Australian financial journalist
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[Quote No.27576] Need Area: Money > Invest
" 'Unlike other stocks, you should buy cyclicals on high PERs and sell them on low ones,' I was told early on in my investing career. 'And growth stocks should be bought when their PER is lower than their prospective growth rate' – the so-called PEG (Price-to-Earnings Growth) ratio. Each piece of the investment catechism presents its own conundrums. For example, should the growth in my 'PEG' ratio be projected out one year? Three years? Ten years? How to account for cyclical upswings, then? And how can I tell if I’m dealing with a growth stock or a cyclical one?" - Greg Hoffman
Investment advisor with the 'Intelligent Investor' newsletter.
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[Quote No.27580] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Profit margins are probably the most mean-reverting series in finance. If high profits do not attract competition, there is something wrong with capitalism. [Therefore do not expect any company to have unusually high profits for very long. Either the profits will fall back or they will get competitors that will eat into their profits.]" - Jeremy Grantham
legendary value investor and Chairman of Boston money management firm, Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo (GMO).
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[Quote No.27581] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Some signs that a market bottom is forming after a bust include:]...when you have Ben Bernanke, the IMF, and all these strategists saying we are in a recession or about to see one, and the market doesn't sell off much, that tells you something. [- mainly that most of the bad news has already been factored into the prices so they don't fall any further.]" - Thomas Nyheim
portfolio manager at Christiana Bank and Trust.
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[Quote No.27582] Need Area: Money > Invest
"When a man has no reason to trust himself, he trusts in luck. [and often lives to regret it]" - Edgar Watson Howe

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[Quote No.27588] Need Area: Money > Invest
"When you take investing more seriously you find that there are many reports about how the economy is going. Some of these indicators are leading indicators, meaning they suggest what will happen, others are co-incident indicators, meaning they occur at the same time and are useful for confirming what the leading indicators suggested, while still others are lagging indicators, meaning they tell you what happened to the economy in the past. Some of the leading, co-incident and lagging indicators for a country's economy and share market can be categorised into the following general areas and sequenced to help them make sense to the general public: 1- INFLATION as measured by, for example, as price rises move through the economy, commodity future price index, import price index, purchasing managers' index, producer price index, capacity utilization, unit labor costs, employment cost index, the Consumer Price Index [CPI]; (which influences) 2- INTEREST RATES and whether there is a tightening [rising] or loosening [falling] monetary [interest rate] bias either to control inflation or stimulate the economy; as measured by, for example, yield spreads, money supply figures;(which influences) 3- BUSINESS CONFIDENCE and expectations about future investment, employment and profits; as measured by, for example, bank loans for commercial and industrial companies, business starts, business failures, corporate profits, Industrial production index, inventory-sales ratios, margins, sales volumes, manufacturers' orders, non-manufacturing business activity index, productivity figures;(which influences) 4- EMPLOYMENT and if rising or falling; as measured by, for example, average weekly hours, help-wanted advertising index, unemployment figures;(which influences) 5- CONSUMER CONFIDENCE; as measured by, for example, average weekly earnings, personal bankruptcies, consumer credit, consumer credit delinquency, distribution of income and wealth, mortgage delinquency and foreclosure, personal income and saving - disposable income, poverty figures;(which influences) 6- RETAIL SALES; as measured by, for example, the performance of large retailing companies;(and) 7- REAL ESTATE; as measured by, for example, home sales for new and existing houses, housing affordability index, housing starts, building approvals; (which in turn influences inflation and the whole cycle of indicators 1-7 again)." - Seymour@imagi-natives.com

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[Quote No.27605] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Commodity markets are cyclical and they will be cyclical going forward. It’s inevitable that when demand rises a lot, supply tends to be more constrained and prices go up. And then when prices go up, that encourages investment and prices then come off as increased supply meets that growth in demand at a lower marginal cost. So I think that the markets are cyclical and they will be cyclical from here to eternity." - Vivek Tulpule
Chief economist for mining company giant Rio Tinto.
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[Quote No.27607] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Half of being smart is knowing what you are dumb about." - Solomon Short

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