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  Quotations - Invest  
[Quote No.28438] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Owe the bank a thousand dollars and you're in trouble; owe the bank a million dollars and it's in trouble. [This is especially relevant for investors in banking shares when the credit cycle enters the stage of rising interest rates and increasing loan arrears and bad debts.]" - Old banking saying

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[Quote No.28444] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Confronted with a challenge to distill the secret of sound investment into three words, we venture the motto, Margin of Safety." - Benjamin Graham
Considered the father of security analysis and value investing. The quote is from his book published in 1949, called 'The Intelligent Investor'.
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[Quote No.28449] Need Area: Money > Invest
"By the charts ye shall know them – bubbles, that is. The lines roll along nicely, calmly, along the bottom of the page, then all of a sudden, the line shoots up. When you see a chart like that, whether it is the price of tulip bulbs, shares in the South Sea Company, or Alan Greenspan’s career, you know what will happen next. The line will go down! What goes up must come down. A bubble is an extraordinary thing – a rare phenomenon... And all extraordinary things tend to become less extraordinary over time. 'Regression to the mean,' is what statisticians call it. The 'mean' marks the territory that is normal. Whenever anything ventures into abnormal territory, chances are very high that it will soon come back on familiar ground... take the weather. A rainy spell may last for a long time. But the more days it rains, the more dry days will be needed to bring the rainfall down to 'normal' levels. Regression to the mean is one of the surest bets an investor can make. Let prices go to extraordinary levels and he’s almost guaranteed that they will come back to normal. In markets, regression to the mean is even more certain than it is in nature. Because extraordinary prices set in motion a series of actions and reactions that almost always bring them back in line. Today’s [10th June 2008 USD$140 a barrel] record-beating oil price, for example, has already touched off a series of derriere-kicking trends and events that are sure to take it down a notch. On the supply side, the industry is spending four times as much on exploration and development than it did when the century began. The price of drilling equipment rentals has more than tripled. And now, believe it or not, a young man graduating from an Ivy-League college with a degree in petroleum engineering earns more money than a man who goes to Wall Street. On the demand side too, changes are underway that will cut the amount of oil used. The cure for high prices is high prices, as we opined yesterday. Bubbles are self-correcting. The higher prices cause people to look for alternatives – or simply not use so much. U.S. imports of oil went down over the last 12 years. And, for the first time ever, Americans are driving fewer miles. Another track of the feedback loop is the economy itself. High oil prices work like higher interest rates or higher taxes – removing money from domestic commerce. The effect is to 'cool' the economy... chilling demand for energy. Elsewhere, substitutes for oil are being developed at breakneck speed – including wind, solar, and bio-fuels. Regression to the mean works. Markets work. Lower energy prices seem a cinch." - Bill Bonner
Bill Bonner is an author of books and articles on economic and financial subjects. He is also the founder and president of Agora Publishing, one of the world's most successful consumer newsletter publishing companies, and the founder and editor of The Daily Reckoning, a daily financial newsletter.
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[Quote No.28451] Need Area: Money > Invest
"If you pay too much for a good asset, it becomes a bad asset." - Alan Kohler
Respected Australian financial journalist.
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[Quote No.28457] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Luck, bad if not good, will always be with us. But it has a way of favoring the intelligent and showing its back to the stupid." - John Dewey

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[Quote No.28458] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Interest] Rates prick price/earnings bubbles; recessions prick earnings bubbles." - Gerard Minack
Chief Market Strategist of Morgan Stanley Australia. Quoted on 11th June, 2008.
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[Quote No.28475] Need Area: Money > Invest
"If (investors) insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett
Highly successful value investor, one of the world's richest men and Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. Quoted from the 2004 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Letter.
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[Quote No.28479] Need Area: Money > Invest
"...we sit back and let the world [the economy and the share market] go whither it wouldst. We just try to figure out where it is going...and get a parking place before everyone else shows up!" - Bill Bonner
Founder and president of Agora Publishing as well as the founder and editor of the financial newsletter, 'The Daily Reckoning'.
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[Quote No.28501] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Many are destined to reason wrongly; others, not to reason at all; and others, to persecute those who do reason." - Voltaire

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[Quote No.28505] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The reason that interest rates must rise when inflation increases is because the loans made are paid back with inflated dollars reducing the required profit for the banks making the loans and to avoid the banks going broke or stopping lending, their profit margins must be kept worth their while. If they aren't then the whole economy, which is based on credit and trust in the value of financial instruments, will crumble and everyone will be worse off. Therefore supporting bank profit margins is the lesser of two evils and, in fact, is in everyone's long-term interest." - Unknown

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[Quote No.28518] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Well, value is no good without growth. That is why the distinction between the two is pretty useless [as highly successful value investor Warren Buffett has said]. It's a distinction that allows professional economists to be bullish [promoting shares] at all times, buying growth in a bull market ['Buy because it is going up!'] and value in a bear market ['Buy because now there is value!']... a bear market is not good for stocks, no matter how good the stock is [because fewer people are interested in stocks when they are falling, except value-orientated bargain hunters]. Still, it pays to focus on good stocks and to remember that a good stock is a combination of tangible value AND growing earnings. To grow earnings, it has to be a good business run by smart people. You can break down a good business and good management into numbers and metrics. [Use these to choose the stocks of wonderful companies you want to own and the price you need to get the return you desire for the risk and wait till they fall to those prices then buy.]" - Dan Denning
Editor of the financial newsletter, 'The Daily Reckoning Australia'.
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[Quote No.28519] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Real wealth and 'money' are connected... Houses, for example, are real wealth. But in money terms, their value varies. In the ten years – 1996-2006 – for example, the price of America’s houses almost doubled. Of course, they were essentially the same houses...a little bigger perhaps...with a few more marble countertops, but otherwise not much different. What had happened that made them more valuable? Well, they weren’t really more valuable...just more expensive. America’s elastic money had stretched out to make them more expensive. But now the elastic is snapping back. Houses are down 13% – according to Case/Shiller – from a year ago. And now an analyst at JP Morgan says they’ll probably go down about 30% before the snapback is finished in 2010. This, he says, will cost Wall Street about $1 trillion in losses on mortgage-backed securities. It will cost the nation $4 trillion in 'lost access to capital'. Whoa! That’s the trouble with stretchable money – when the elastic snaps, it can hurt." - Bill Bonner
Bill Bonner is the founder of Agora Publishing and editor of the financial newsletter, 'The Daily Reckoning'. The quote is from 'The Daily Reckoning Australia', 16th June, 2008.
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[Quote No.28520] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[The important role of monetary policy in raising interest rates to stop the upward spiral of prices due to expectations and demands for wage increases in response to the rising cost of living is clear from this statement:] It is imperative to secure that medium to longer-term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored in line with price stability. All parties concerned, in both the private and the public sector, must meet their responsibilities. Broadly based second-round effects stemming from the impact of higher energy and food prices on price and wage-setting behaviour must be avoided. On second-round effects, again, our message is clear. We consider it is of the essence that we do not have those phenomena." - Jean-Claude Trichet
Head of the European Central Bank. Quoted made on 5th June 2008.
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[Quote No.28521] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Just as easing [monetary] policy aggressively [by dramatically lowering interest rates] in response to emerging downside risks [of recession to the economy and a disorderly collapse of the financial markets] made sense, withdrawing some of that stimulus as those risks diminish makes eminent sense as well. [lest the opposite danger of inflation should get out of control]" - Jeffery Lacker
President of the Richmond Federal Reserve. Quoted on 11th June 2008.
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[Quote No.28530] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[In inflationary boom times for industries remember this economic truth:] ...markets still work. The cure for high prices is high prices. High prices encourage producers to increase output...and consumers to reduce consumption. Sooner or later, the medicine does the trick - [the lack of comsumer demand wins] and prices fall." - Bill Bonner
Founder of Agora Publishing and editor of the financial newsletter, 'The Daily Reckoning'.
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[Quote No.28531] Need Area: Money > Invest
"In inflationary times you will hear that prices are so high because of 'Supply and demand' according to the bulls, 'Speculation' according to the bears and 'Company profiteering' or 'Economic factors outside our control' according to the politicians. All are right." - Unknown

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[Quote No.28532] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Especially in difficult economic times [with inflation and unemployment rising and the stock market falling or busting], a handy way to keep tabs on how bad things get is the concept of the 'Misery Index'. This is an interesting metric produced by combining the rate of inflation plus the rate of unemployment. [Money.CNN.com reintroduced it on their site in 2008] Using 'official' numbers of 3.9% inflation with 5% unemployment produces a current Misery Index in 2008 of 8.9%. To get some perspective, the Misery Index's post World War II high in the USA was 20.6% in 1980 and its low was 6.1% in 1998." - Unknown

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[Quote No.28539] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The more unpredictable the world is the more we rely on predictions." - Steve Rivkin

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[Quote No.28547] Need Area: Money > Invest
"In periods of 'stagflation', when the economy stagnates but inflation [prices] rise, puts central bankers between a rock [recession] and a hard place [more inflation]. They want to lower rates and increase liquidity in order to stimulate the sagging economy. But this action no longer swells asset prices and nourishes economic growth; it only leaks into consumer prices, making things even worse." - Unknown

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[Quote No.28548] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The trouble with being an airline these days [in periods of high inflation] is that it's a really bad business. You have high capital costs, high energy costs, long-term contracts with unions, and lots of competition. Many airlines will go out of business the longer the oil price stays high. At least there will be less competition." - Dan Denning
Editor of the financial newsletter, 'The Daily Reckoning Australia'. Quoted 19th June, 2008.
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[Quote No.28556] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[When a country is facing the dangers of inflation, monetary policy tightens and interest rates rise to reduce disposable income and thereby demand and prices. When inflation, especially wage inflation, is under control and within the target band again, usually accompanied by an increase in unemployment, there is a danger that the economy could get into trouble by slowing too much, so the central bank then loosens monetary policy and interest rates fall in an attempt to simulate economic risk-taking and growth again.] The rule of thumb is that the Fed [central bank] starts lifting rates when unemployment stops rising. [This is all part of the way an economy and the Business Cycle normally works, namely rise and fall, boom and bust, but with a rising long-term trend.]" - Matthew Johnson
Australian financial journalist
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[Quote No.28557] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Success in investing doesn't correlate with I.Q. once you're above the level of 25. Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges [fear and greed] that get other people into trouble in investing." - Warren Buffett
Highly successful value investor, Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc and one of the richest men in the world.
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[Quote No.28564] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Remember] ...in the business world, ugly ducklings stay ugly! [and frogs do not become princes when kissed! At least that's the way to bet until the improvements are seen in the company's bottom line.] " - Warren Buffett
Highly successful value investor, Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc and one of the richest men in the world.
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[Quote No.28565] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[When markets are in the grip of inflation and central banks are tightening interest rates it is sometimes worth watching what the banks are doing to see what their take on future interest rates are likely to be:-] Big Banks Bring Forward Funding: Two banks out of the Big Five [of Australia's banks in June, 2008] are getting in early on funding. That’s telling. St George (ASX:SGB) has already covered wholesale funding requirements for this year. It hasn’t had its fill though. The banker is already $1 billion into next year’s $12 billion quota. It’s like a lighthouse warning investors about more credit strains. Oil producers stock up inventories if they think oil’s going to rise in price tomorrow. And banks issue more debt now to avoid paying through the nose in 12 months. The professionals are betting that interest costs will keep rising...And St George isn’t the only one stuffing its pockets. Westpac just released AU$600 million of new hybrid securities. 'It will further strengthen Westpac’s Tier 1 capital, which is particularly important in the current operating environment,' said CFO Phil Coffey. That’s a good idea for bankers. But it’s a strange offer, in a way. By bringing forward funding, bankers are signaling they think debt markets will keep contracting. When debt markets contract, interest rates go up. When interest rates go up, bond and note prices go down. These new securities don’t spell capital gains for investors. And markets haven’t finished tightening." - Al Robinson
Editor of Australian daily financial newsletter, 'Money Morning'
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[Quote No.28577] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The big risk to this grand vision of perpetual prosperity [for the 2008 global boom]? Energy and inflation. The only cure for the inflation that's taking hold globally is a recession. Not just lower growth but contraction. [All booms are self limiting with higher prices eventually eliminating consumer's capacity to pay and therefore demand, despite the ever increasing speculators' demand. Without real demand prices collapse and the market bust and economic contraction begins so the market can revert to the real demand-driven long-term mean growth rate.]" - Dan Denning
Editor of the financial newsletter, 'The Daily Reckoning Australia'. Quoted from 20th June, 2008.
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[Quote No.28578] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[A boom in credit leads to asset bubbles and eventually to busts in asset markets:] A capsule account of the role of credit in macroeconomic cycles, as informed by the experience of the 1990s, would go something like this. There is first an upswing in economic activity. As the economy expands, banks and financial markets provide an expanding volume of credit to finance the growth of both consumption and investment, particularly where regulation is lax and competition among bank and nonbank financial intermediaries is intense. Whether because the exchange rate is pegged or for other reasons such as a positive supply shock, upward pressure on wholesale and retail prices is subdued. Hence, the central bank has no obvious reason to tighten and stem the growth of money and credit, leading to a further expansion of output and further increase in credit. Higher property and securities prices encourage investment activity, especially in interest-sensitive activities like construction. But, as lending expands, increasingly risky investments are underwritten. The demand for risky investments rises with the supply, since, in the prevailing environment of stable prices, nominal interest rates and therefore yields on safe assets are low. In search of yield, investors dabble increasingly in risky investments. Their appetite for risk is stronger still to the extent that these trends coincide with the development of new technologies, in particular network technologies of promising but uncertain commercial potential. Eventually, all this construction and investment activity, together with the wealth effect on consumption, produces signs of inflationary pressure, causing the central bank to tighten. The financial bubble is pricked and, as asset prices decline, the economy is left with an overhang of ill-designed, non-viable investment projects, distressed banks, and heavily indebted households and firms, aggravating the subsequent downturn." - Barry Eichengreen and Kris Mitchener
Consultants with the Bank for International Settlements - sometimes referred to as the central banker's central bank. Quoted from their [BIS] Working Paper number 137, 'The Great Depression as a Credit Boom Gone Wrong', published in 2003.
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[Quote No.28580] Need Area: Money > Invest
"In the struggle for [economic/share market/investment] survival, the fittest win out at the expense of their rivals because they succeed in adapting themselves best to their environment. [by, as highly successful value investor Warren Buffett says, being fearful when others are greedy and the markets are booming irrationally and greedy when others are fearful and the markets are busting unjustifiably.]" - Charles Darwin
Naturalist who developed the Theory of Evolution.
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[Quote No.28582] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The average man doesn't wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn't even wish to have to think. [Unfortunately for this average person the stock market is usually fair over the long haul to its knowledgeable participants and those that refuse to do any 'work' usually get the results they deserve! In the share market, hard-earned personal knowledge really is power, success and wealth.]" - Jesse Livermore
Highly successful share trader at the beginning of the Twentieth Century.
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[Quote No.28583] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Have you ever wanted]... to know why the word 'bull' is used for a rising market and the word 'bear' is used for a falling market? First of all, let me point out that these two terms have become part of everyday language. You can be 'bullish' (or optimistic, thinking something will get better) not just on the market but on the Red Sox, for example. And you can be 'bearish' (or pessimistic, thinking something will get worse) about Detroit or Pittsburgh or about their baseball teams. My colleague and office mate Jon Herring tells me 'bull' comes from bulls tossing things up in the air with their horns. And that 'bear' comes from bears swiping down with their claws. That makes perfect sense, doesn't it? But it didn't prevent me from doing some research. I found out that an old meaning of the word 'bull' (as a verb) was 'to inflate, swell.' That makes sense, too, in describing a market going higher or getting bigger. It was first used in a stock market sense in 1714. And just five years later, the phrase 'sell the bearskin before one has caught the bear' - referring to anything with falling prices - became popular among investors. A bear was described as 'one who sells stock for future delivery, expecting that meanwhile prices will fall.' Just think: Almost 300 years ago, people were celebrating 'bull' and bemoaning 'bear' markets... when today, we know you can make money in both." - Andrew Gordon
Editor of the financial newsletter, 'Income'.
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[Quote No.28597] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Many things have fallen only to rise higher." - Seneca

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[Quote No.28636] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Warren Buffett considers the concept of 'Margin of Safety' as the greatest contribution to investing that the father of investment analysis, Ben Graham, ever shared. Here is a definition for it:] Margin of Safety - Investing at considerable discounts to underlying value, an individual provides himself or herself room for imprecision, bad luck, or analytical error while avoiding sizable losses." - Seth Klarman
Famous value investor. Quoted from his highly respected 1991 book, 'Margin of Safety'.
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[Quote No.28637] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Value Investing - A risk-averse investment approach designed to buy securities at a discount from underlying [intrinsic = business] value." - Seth Klarman
Famous value investor. Quoted from his highly respected 1991 book, 'Margin of Safety'.
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[Quote No.28638] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The first 80% of the available information is found in the first 20% of time spent. [Researching beyond this gives diminishing results for each hour of effort and can mean you lose the opportunity. As long as you leave yourself a decent 'Margin of Safety', you will be fine in the long run.]" - Seth Klarman
Famous value investor. Quoted from his highly respected 1991 book, 'Margin of Safety'.
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[Quote No.28639] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The book ['Margin of Safety' by famed value investor, Seth Klarman] is a quick read and it is a classic. Klarman is a true Graham disciple. There is a fantastic chapter on investing in distressed and bankrupt securities. He emphasizes the importance of holding cash and being patient, the need to evaluate one’s portfolio against emerging investment opportunities which may be better bargains, and why it is crucial to ignore Wall Street’s latest financial innovations and gimmickries. There is also a section on a very important principle which many investors fail to grasp: 'the first 80% of the available information is found in the first 20% of time spent.' Digging in too much can mean lost opportunity. As long as you leave yourself a decent 'Margin of Safety', you will be fine. Klarman does an excellent job making the case for value investing and how one may profit by adhering to the discipline. However, he reminds us that not everyone is wired to succeed at it. Being a contrarian can be a lonely and psychologically challenging endeavor at times." - Ali Alagheband
He has a Masters of Business Administration (MBA) from the University of Western Ontario's Ivey School of Business.
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[Quote No.28640] Need Area: Money > Invest
"A crisis is an opportunity riding the dangerous wind. [A crash or bad news in the share market can provide an opportunity to buy the shares of great companies at bargain prices, for those who are knowledgeable, prepared and courageous.]" - Chinese Proverb

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[Quote No.28643] Need Area: Money > Invest
"It is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain

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[Quote No.28647] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[While technical analysis of charts is superficially appealing in that it seems to suggest where the smart money is flowing, it is deceptively hard to succeed with over a long period of time. In fact, Warren Buffett, one of the richest men in the world and all of his wealth accumulated through his superb share investing skill, should know - he tried to use it for eight years before discarding it and using the value investing methods taught by Ben Graham, the father of security analysis. He described the moment when he decided to give it away at the 2008 Berkshire Hathaway Inc Annual Meeting] I realized that technical analysis didn't work when I turned the chart upside down and didn't get a different answer. [Ben Graham taught Warren three simple rules that made all the difference to his investing success: -1 Buy stocks with a margin of safety. -2 A stock is part of a business. -3 The market is there to serve you, not instruct you. Luckily Ben Graham wrote two famous books to help people learn to invest better. First he wrote 'Security Analysis' with David Dodd in 1934, for the securities students he taught. Then in 1949 he wrote a book for the general public called, 'The Intelligent Investor'. Both have been regularly updated. No serious investor should invest in shares before reading them both carefully.]" - Warren Buffett
Highly successful value investor, one of the richest men in the world and Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
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[Quote No.28648] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[When the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates to reinflate a damaged economy and market after an economic shock, like they did in 2008, the US Dollar falls in value because fewer people want to put their money into a country with low interest rates. Because many basic commodities like oil are valued in US Dollars the price goes up dramatically because each dollar is worth less. The negative result of this in inflation. That is the risk the Fed took to soften the blow to the country's financial markets and at the least delay the eventual decline into something that is more orderly rather than dramatically fast when panic grips the markets. Wise investors know this and get out of the share market before the serious losses begin. Here is what famed value investor Jeremy Grantham says of the delayed effect of dropping interest rates, lowering the value of the US Dollar and the deceptive effect this has on companies' overseas profits] ...people systematically make a mistake on how to treat the weak [U.S.] dollar, which affects the 45-per-cent earnings of the S&P [500] that come from overseas... If the dollar goes down 18 per cent against the euro, then all your profits in Germany are marked up by 18 per cent. Bang, simple as that. Let's say you have 6-per-cent natural growth and an 18-per-cent markup. You have a 24-per-cent earnings increase from your German subsidiary. The next year, the 6 [per cent natural growth] may only have gone down to 4, but the dollar has rallied ... and your growth has gone to zero. [So the effect of the dramatic lowering of the US interest rates and thereby the US Dollar deceptively delays the effects on company profits until some quarters, later allowing the knowledgeable investor to sell their currently held shares at a small loss and then sit on the sideline with cash and buy the fabulous bargains later when the real drop in earnings are reported and then reflected in much lower share prices.]" - Jeremy Grantham
Renowned value investor and founder of the Boston-based institutional money manager, GMO, which manages about $145 billion (U.S.). Quoted from 'Grantham: the bear growls' published in The Toronto Globe & Mail, June 17, 2008.
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[Quote No.28653] Need Area: Money > Invest
"All economic cycles end with rising prices. [rising inflation and interest rates and falling share markets. All of which eventually leads to falling employment and asset prices.]" - Dan Denning
Editor of financial newsletter, 'The Daily Reckoning Australia'.
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[Quote No.28654] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[When a country keeps interest rates too low for too long they open the door to irresponsible lending and borrowing. All the easy money pushes up the share market and assey prices beyond any realistic long-term valuation, creating the conditions for an eventual reversion to the mean crash when the inevitable inflation arrives and interest rates are necessarily raised to combat it. Between 2005-2008] People borrowed too much...and spent too freely. Now [2008], they have to cut back and pay up. The sooner they get it over with the better; clearing away excessive debt and cleaning up balance sheets will give them something solid to build on. Of course, it won't be easy or painless. But the Fed is doing all it can to avoid a slowdown. That is why we have the key Fed rate at a NEGATIVE real yield of 2.2%. And it's why when you put money in a money market fund you get a return of less than half the rate of consumer price inflation. The low rates discourage you from doing what you ought to be doing – saving money rather than spending it. The 90-day T-bill rate is only 1.8%. That's part of the reason gold is so expensive; you don't give up much income to own it. [Unfortunately history is repeating itself. But at least it reminds investors that those who don't bother to learn from the failures of past investors are doomed to get their same poor results. The key is to understand the business cycle and how it effects the share market and then monitor where an economy is in the cycle as closely as you monitor the companies in your share portfolio.]" - Bill Bonner
Author, founder of Agora Publishing and founder and editor of the financial newsletter, 'The Daily Reckoning'.
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[Quote No.28660] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Some of the weakness in our market [Australia, June, 2008] being blamed on tax loss selling (there is a lot of stocks in loss this financial year so there is a lot of tax loss selling being done). We only have 4 trading days left for tax loss selling and traditionally the bargain hunters will be moving in now to pick up stocks 'on the cheap'. July is statistically a good month (4th best month on record since 1936)." - Marcus Padley
Stockbroker, Share market media commentator and the author of the daily stockmarket newsletter 'Marcus Today'.
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[Quote No.28661] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria." - Sir John Templeton
(1936 - ), One of the world's most successful share investors, Rhodes scholar, author, philanthropist.
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[Quote No.28662] Need Area: Money > Invest
"What do you do when you're sitting on a nice profit and you're not so sure about when the music will stop and that when it does whether you will be able to secure a chair for yourself? You secure your profit [by selling usually in stages] and leave the rest of the higher risk market action to others who are greedier, or who came late to the party and have yet to secure a profit. Once you've been around and seen it all, you never mourn about the potential you missed, but you feel content with what you achieved instead." - Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
Editor of the daily financial newsletter and website, FNArena [Financial News Arena]
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[Quote No.28667] Need Area: Money > Invest
"A global recession [according to Nouriel Roubini is]... defined as global growth at 3%." - Nouriel Roubini
Professor of Economics at New York University's Stern School of Business.
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[Quote No.28668] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The financial industry used to represent about 10% of the entire stock market's earnings. Then, as credit grew, the financial sector invented new ways to separate people from their money. During the period known as the Great Moderation, the percentage of earnings coming from Wall Street rose to 40% of the total. Now it's coming back down. It's over. We don't have to tell you, but the 'Great Moderation' was a big fraud. There was nothing moderate about it. Instead, it was a period of extravagance...excess...over-the-top consumption and borrowing...and outlandish claptrap. It was claimed, for example, that the Wall Street firms were 'adding value' by packaging subprime mortgages into securities and peddling them to towns in Norway. And it was believed that the Fed really had learned how to smooth out the business cycle and could henceforth avoid serious downturns. And inflation? That was a problem of the '70s...not of the 21st century. But every bubble pops. And the force of a correction is equal and opposite to the deception that preceded it. Naturally, the correction in the financial industry would have to be substantial. Nor is the Fed able to stop it. When a bubble bursts, the Feds can pump as hard as they want; the new cash and credit will go into a new bubble, not the old one. You haven't seen another bubble in the dotcom industry, have you? That one blew up eight years ago. It hasn't come back – despite the best efforts of central banks all over the world. And don't expect another bubble in housing either. We've seen the highest prices for housing – in real terms – that we will probably see in our lifetimes. Bubbles...busts...bubbles...busts...the beat goes on. One sector gets pumped up...and then it gets whacked. What's up next? See below... *** The next bubbles are probably coming in oil...commodities, and – many experts believe – in emerging markets. We see the hot air flowing into the oil market, for example. Barron's reports that $260 billion has gone into indexed commodity strategies – up from only $13 billion at the end of 2003. And looking at a chart of the NASDAQ, 1990-2000, we find it looks familiar. Yes, dear reader, the oil market 1998-2008 looks a lot like the dotcom market (traded on the NASDAQ) eight years before. Of course, many are the reasons why you might think oil will get more and more expensive. But so were the reasons that you might have expected the dotcoms to keep going up. And prices of Miami condos to keep going up. And tulip bulbs. 'Oil is different,' we can hear you saying. The economy can't function without it. More and more people are buying it. The Nigerians are blowing up pipelines. Production has peaked out. T. Boone Pickens says it's going up. The Chinese are hoarding for the Olympics, and so forth. Maybe so. But human beings err, said Rosmini. The more reasons they have to believe something...the more they tend to believe it to excess. And the sadder they are when their beliefs are proven incorrect. As to emerging markets, Alan Abelson, in Barron's, believes they are in bubble-mode too. 'Decoupling' is hooey, he believes. When the world economy heads down, they'll go down with it." - Bill Bonner
Founder of Agora Publishing and founder and editor of 'The Daily Reckoning'. Quoted in 'The Daily Reckoning - Australia', 15th June, 2008.
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[Quote No.28671] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[If an investment bubble develops in residential, retail, commercial and/or real estate, as it does at times, especially when interest rates - the credit cycle - have been low for a long time be careful about thinking that perhaps there is an opportunity to invest in credit collection companies as explained in this quote:] It’s hard to think of any business that might directly benefit from falling property prices. Debt collection companies such as Credit Corp and Collections House [both listed on the Australian share market] are often mentioned as beneficiaries, but history has shown them to be particularly vulnerable to a downturn in the credit cycle. While they get a lot more business, their existing ledgers suffer from lower than expected recovery rates." - Greg Hoffman and Steve Johnson
Greg Hoffman heads up the research team at financial newsletter and website, 'The Intelligent Investor'. Steve Johnson is the managing director. He holds a Bachelor of Economics from the University of New South Wales and spent four years in Macquarie Bank’s Investment Banking Group before joining 'The Intelligent Investor' in 2003. Quoted from their special report, ' What’s Your House Really Worth?', June 24, 2008.
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[Quote No.28672] Need Area: Money > Invest
"All you need to know to value any asset is how much [net] cash it’s going to deliver to you and when it's going to arrive. The value of any asset comes down to what it can do for you, and the value of any financial asset comes down to the [net] cash you expect it to deliver to you in future [discounted by a factor related to inflation, your opportunity cost - the returns you could get on alternative investments, the risks involved and your desired rate of return to show the value of the future money in today's dollars]. With shares, you expect to get cash in the form of dividends or other distributions, with bank accounts and bonds you expect to get interest, and with property you expect either to receive rent (if you let it out) [minus costs] or to save yourself from having to pay it (if you live in it). In a sense, if you live in your own property, then you are your own landlord, and you can value the property on this basis...The way the sums work out [for property] is that your current net rental yield on a property, plus the long-term average annual rental growth will equal the long-term annual return you can expect to make. For example, if you buy a house that provides an initial return of 6%, and the net rent grows at 4% per year [wage growth of 2% p.a. plus inflation of 2% p.a.], your total return works out at 10%. Turning this equation around, if you know you want a return of 10%, then you need to pay a price that equates to an initial yield of 6% [from the potential net rent - usually about 30% of the average wage in the property's postcode area - ie The average wage in the area is $100,000 and you could receive $600-a-week-net-rent X 50 weeks = $30,000/6% = $500,000 price.] [Is a 10% return fair? Yes, because the opportunity cost you forego for risk-free bonds is the long-term interest rate of about 7% p.a. plus a 2% risk-premium as real estate is more risky than bonds. This makes sense as mortgage rates are about that and it would be pointless to have costs higher than returns, unless the property was arranged that way - negatively geared for tax reasons. Also it corresponds to the long term mean growth rate for real assets like property and shares during the 20th century which has been about 7.5% a year plus the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target of 2 - 3%.]" - Greg Hoffman
Research Director at the financial newsletter and website, 'The Intelligent Investor'.
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[Quote No.28673] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[When valuing real estate as an investment]...we can compare price-to-[net]rent ratios which, like price-to-earnings ratios, measure the amount you have to invest to get $1 of current-year rent (or earnings)." - Greg Hoffman
Research Director of the Australian financial newsletter and website, 'The Intelligent Investor'.
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[Quote No.28674] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Economists coined the phrase ‘the wealth effect’ to describe a perceived correlation between household wealth — in the form of shares and property — and consumption. When the stockmarket or property market rises, the theory goes, people spend more because they feel wealthier. While that certainly seems to have been the case on the upside, numerous studies have suggested that the relationship doesn’t hold when prices fall. Consumption didn’t fall in the US following the bursting of the dotcom bubble and, so far [June 2008], it has been remarkably resilient in the face of falling property prices [although rebate cheques have helped]." - Greg Hoffman
Research Director at financial newsletter and website, 'The Intelligent Investor'.
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[Quote No.28676] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Bulls [share market investors who believe the market will rise] are thoroughly rational creatures under ideal conditions and they only become dangerously unstable when maddened by the application of leverage and uncontrolled money-lust. The signs of mania are normally less obvious to the herd than to the outsider. Cash becomes trash. Any setbacks are greeted as unexpected opportunities to buy, and as cash is exhausted more and more credit is used. As the fear of loss is banished, it makes clear sense to use borrowed money to make even more. If there are no quantity or price restrictions on borrowing, and if the lenders become heedless of risk themselves, buyers will force prices ever higher as potential sellers are overwhelmed. After a while the intrinsic value of what’s being traded in such feverish conditions becomes merely its market value: a thing is worth whatever the market will pay for it. Traditional touchstones of value – such as dividend yields and price/earnings multiples, the relationship of stock earnings yields to bond yields, the cash backing of share prices and, at the broadest level, the ratio of the whole market’s capitalisation to gross domestic product – none of these conceptual anchors means anything anymore, because 'Things Have Changed' and the resulting 'New Paradigm' has made them old-fashioned. This is where momentum comes in. The bullish process becomes self-feeding. Any fool can see that the line of least resistance lies upwards. All news is interpreted as favourable and is immediately built into prices, whose consequent rise is then taken as confirming that interpretation. Anything that fails to confirm universal optimism is argued away or ignored. And as this increasingly debt-financed frenzy continues, the rate of 'wealth' creation rises well beyond what the economy’s own growth rate can truly provide; in other words, that market wealth becomes illusory... Our limitless extrapolation makes us more and more incurably optimistic as we forget about the pain of the preceding downturn... The bovine mentality of the herd takes over as individual judgment is suspended. Don’t think – just buy! Everybody else does!... United we charge, and the dissenters get trampled... When value and price have parted company like this, under the influence of euphoria and leverage, the bull market has become unsustainable and has become a bubble. It rises gloriously above the colourless landscape of fundamentals as it inflates and provides the quickest and most evanescent gains of the whole cycle. But when this glowing and fragile creature ruptures, as it must when reality intrudes upon it, we have a bust, a crash that makes the headlines and usually changes the market mood from manic to depressive overnight as it happens so fast that it traps almost every helpless player into a loss-making position..." - Patrick O'Leary and Charles Macek
Extract from the 'Business Spectator' article, 'Bear markets: Why they start, how they end', published June, 2008.
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