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  Quotations - Invest  
[Quote No.31318] Need Area: Money > Invest
"...the era of bull market geniuses is probably over. Too many were paid too much for doing too little over the past several decades. Being at the right place at the right time is not going to cut it anymore." - Michael E. Lewitt
The 'HCM Market Letter', March, 2009.
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[Quote No.31320] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The multitude is always wrong." - Proverb

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[Quote No.31324] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Historical data suggested company dividends fell by about 30 per cent during a recession. " - John Coombe
JANA Investment Advisers executive director
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[Quote No.31335] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Just as banks, utility, etc., companies, especially in U.S.A., use FICO credit ratings and Fair Isaac [the organization who started Credit Scores] Bankruptcy Scores to decide which individuals to lend to, predictive statistical models have also been created for businesses - both private and public. One of the most reputable that banks use is Altman's Z-Score. It is already used by professional fund managers and its use by private investors, both technical and fundamental value investors, is recommended." - Seymour@imagi-natives.com

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[Quote No.31351] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Long-term]...earnings more or less rise at the level of GDP plus inflation...[and are mean reverting] as earnings cannot grow faster than GDP for too long [which gives an average P/E of just below 13, which equates to 100/13 = 7.5% average GDP + inflation rate, which explains why over a hundred years the stock market averages have risen above and below a long term average rate line of about 7%]." - Ed Easterling
Financial consultant
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[Quote No.31374] Need Area: Money > Invest
"From a retail investor’s point of view, there are two main ways a company will knock on your door asking for cash [to raise equity if they find they need to fix their debt to equity ratio, especially in a credit crisis where their banks won't loan them any more]. The first is via a share purchase plan (SPP), which is easily identifiable because you’ll be offered a dollar amount of shares. Typically, you’ll get to choose between buying $1,000, $3,000 or $5,000 (and now even up to $10,000) worth of shares at a fixed price, typically a discount to the share price at the time the deal was announced. The same offer is made to all retail shareholders, whether they own 100 shares or 1% of the company. The second type of equity raising is a rights issue. These take two forms, renounceable and non-renounceable (the latter now commonly referred to as a ‘retail entitlement offer’). Rights issues are pro-rata, so the more shares you own, the more you get offered (making them fairer in our opinion). For example, Wesfarmers recently had a retail entitlement offer of three-for-seven – meaning if you owned 700 shares, you had the opportunity to buy 300 more – at $13.50. Both rights issues and share purchase plans are usually issued at a discount to recent market prices, to tempt you to invest. With renounceable rights issues, if you don’t wish to participate you have the opportunity to sell your rights on the market and receive value in exchange for giving that discount to someone else. And if you fail to act, companies will now usually sell that right on your behalf at the end of the offer period, and send you a cheque. With share purchase plans and non-renounceable retail entitlement offers, however, it’s a take it or leave it proposition... If it’s a renounceable right issue, check to see whether those rights will be sold on your behalf at the end of the rights period. Because if not, you’ll want to make sure you sell the rights on the market before the offer period lapses – call your broker if you're not sure what this involves. If, however, you’re dealing with a share purchase plan or non-renounceable retail entitlement offer, then you might want to consider engaging in a little arbitrage. French for ‘free money’ (sort of), arbitrage in the traditional sense is an opportunity for risk free profit [by perhaps selling some of your existing shares while buying the same number back through the discounted rights offer, but ensure you consider brokerage, dividends and capital gains or losses]." - Gareth Brown
Financial writer with the Australian share investing newsletter, 'The Intelligent Investor'. Published 13th March, 2009.
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[Quote No.31379] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Sometimes we stare so long at a door that is closing that we see too late the one that is open." - Alexander Graham Bell

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[Quote No.31392] Need Area: Money > Invest
"When they pull the Paddy wagon up to the whorehouse they take the good girls along with the bad. [So in a bust - a falling share market - don't expect the good stocks not to fall along with the bad. In the market's panic, fear and uncertainty, they will. That is the reason why value investing works. The skilled value investor has developed the financial analytical skill to assess which companies will go broke and which won't and therefore to patiently wait to buy the good ones, which will survive and eventually prosper strongly, when they become bargains.] " - old Wall St saying

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[Quote No.31397] Need Area: Money > Invest
"An early experiment with quantitative easing [printing money after interest rate falls have not reignited economic growth] occurred in Japan in 1932. At the time, the Bank of Japan financed a large fiscal [government spending] expansion by printing money. In no time, Japan went from a severe deflation to near double-digit inflation. This monetary easing was never reversed and inflation escalated throughout the decade. After the Second World War, the [U.S.] Fed likewise printed money to buy bonds. As a result, a mild deflation in 1949 was followed by inflation of about 10 per cent a couple of years later. Owners of Treasury bonds suffered heavy losses. [and the currency fell]" - Edward Chancellor
In a March 2009 Financial Times article, 'Beware Bank of England’s monetary con trick'.
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[Quote No.31404] Need Area: Money > Invest
"I don’t care what rate you’re paying, if you have a mortgage five times your income and you lose your job, you’re toast." - Gerard Minack
chief economist at Morgan Stanley
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[Quote No.31406] Need Area: Money > Invest
"He that[believes that he]'s secure is not safe. [Eternal vigilant caution is the prerequisite for any form of safety]" - Benjamin Franklin

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[Quote No.31414] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Fools are without number." - Desiderius Erasmus

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[Quote No.31415] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Fortune makes a fool of those she favors too much." - Horace

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[Quote No.31435] Need Area: Money > Invest
"It is not best that we should all think alike; it is a difference of opinion that makes horse races [and stock markets]." - Mark Twain

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[Quote No.31445] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market. [or at the very least not have so much of your assets in shares]" - Warren Buffett
Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., highly successful value share investor and one of the richest men in the world.
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[Quote No.31459] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Money management is often more about avoiding the assets that implode, and diversifying amongst the rest, than about picking outsized winners." - Charles Gave
Chairman of Gavekal, which is a financial services firm that offers institutional investors and high net worth individuals services including fund management and independent research on global macro-economic trends and events.
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[Quote No.31466] Need Area: Money > Invest
"To be consistently effective, you must put a certain distance between yourself and what happens to you on the golf course [or the share market]. This is not indifference, it's detachment." - Sam Snead
Famous champion golfer
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[Quote No.31471] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Value investing, which is the independent appraisal of a company's finances and therefore the value of its shares, will save you from being caught by 'pump and dump' specialists.] Pump and dump scams have been around for decades in one form or another. These scams are a way of artificially inflating share prices. The scam operators usually own large parcels of shares in small publicly-listed companies. They attempt to drive up the share price by spruiking false positive statements to unsuspecting victims. If they succeed in convincing enough people to buy shares, the share price will often increase beyond its real worth. Once this happens (that is, the 'pump'), the scam operators sell (ie 'dump') their shares at the peak of the price spike. When the scam operators sell their shares, the price decreases, liquidity in the shares falls and victims are left holding shares at their deflated value. Typically, pump and dump scams take advantage of shares that are of extremely low value, often referred to as 'penny stocks'. This makes it easier for the scam operators to pump up the price. These scams often involve companies that are likely to have unexpected price spikes anyway, for example emerging mining companies." - Australian Government Taxation Office

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[Quote No.31484] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Common sense is very uncommon. " - Horace Greeley
newspaperman
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[Quote No.31485] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The market will eventually adjust to actual realities. In the meantime, it will be moved by perceived ones." - Bill Jenkins
Founder and managing editor of Master FX Options Trader.
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[Quote No.31533] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Richard [Russell, editor for 50 years of the 'Dow Theory Letters'] believes that we have not seen the bottom of this bear market [in April 2009]. Sentiment turned bullish too quickly and appears to be [offering investors] the 'pause that refreshes to get everyone bullish again' before the downage resumes in earnest. The more I think about it, the more interesting it becomes that sentiment has turned bullish so quickly. When bear markets really bottom, sentiment is so negative that it really feels like the blood is not only in the streets, but that we are hemorrhaging from every orifice with nary a tourniquet in sight. That hasn't happened yet." - Dr. Janice Dorn
She is an expert in behavioral finance and a full-time commodities futures trader for sixteen years since 1993.
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[Quote No.31544] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The ability to say 'no' is a tremendous advantage for an investor." - Warren Buffett
One of the world's richest men and a highly successful value share investor.
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[Quote No.31563] Need Area: Money > Invest
"A public-opinion poll is no substitute for thought." - Charlie Munger
Lawyer, property developer, business partner of Warren Buffett - one of the richest men in the world, and a highly successful value share investor in his own right.
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[Quote No.31568] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The bond market is far more efficient than the stock market. Bond investors focus on the likelihood that a company can repay its debts. They analyse the cash-flow statement and the balance sheet. Of the three common financial statements, these two leave the least room for imagination. Cash can be counted. Assets can be priced. Stock investors, on the other hand, tend to focus on something called 'earnings,' which are reported on the income statement. Earnings are fictional. They are a product of modern accounting, most of which seems to have been designed to sucker naive investors. If financial statements were genres of books, you would say the cash-flow statement is an honest memoir, the balance sheet is a well-researched biography, and the income statement is fantasy science fiction. Goldman Sachs, for example [in 2009], claimed to have 'earned' more than $20 billion over the last three years, but actually lost more than $100 billion in cash. Which do you think is likely closer to reality? Or look at MGM. MGM claims to have $3 billion in 'earnings' over the last three years. But looking at its cash flows, it seems like it really lost about $2 billion, which is why it was forced to add yet another $1 billion to its debt load. Just make a note and stick it on your computer screen Don't buy stocks that have wide and continuing discrepancies between what they report in earnings and what they make in cash. Don't buy stocks that add, continually, to the amount of debt they carry. And don't buy stocks whose bonds are trading at a huge discount from par." - Dan Ferris

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[Quote No.31569] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The market doesn’t turn when there’s light at the end of the tunnel, it turns when all looks black, but just a subtle shade less black than the day before. [as people fear missing out on the subsequent rally] " - Jeremy Grantham
Fund manager of GMO
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[Quote No.31579] Need Area: Money > Invest
"We've never understood US individual investors' fascination with stocks, almost to the exclusion of all other investment vehicles. Stock backers point to long run annual gains of about 10%, but neglect to note that about half of that came from dividends. Stocks way, way underperformed Treasury bonds in the 1980s and 1990s in what was the longest and strongest stock bull market on record. The superiority of Treasuries has been even [greater] since then. [If you invested] $100 in a 25-year zero-coupon Treasury bond at its yield high [14.7%] (and price low) in October 1981, and rolled it into another 25-year Treasury annually to maintain that 25-year maturity, on March 31, 2009, that $100 was worth $16,656 with a compound annual return of 20.4%. In contrast, $100 invested in the S&P 500 at its low in July 1982 was worth $1,502 last month for a 10.7% annual return, including dividend reinvestment. So, Treasuries outperformed stocks by 11.1 times!" - Gary Shilling
Economist and editor of 'INSIGHT'.
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[Quote No.31580] Need Area: Money > Invest
"...according to the stats provided by property spruikers, RPData, about 2% of Australia's housing stock is on the market to be sold at any one time. That may not seem like much, but the important aspect is that it means only a small increase in the numbers of houses on the market [in a recession] could have a proportionally much larger impact on the prices buyers are willing to pay." - Kris Sayce
Editor, 'Morning Money', 15th April, 2009.
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[Quote No.31582] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Just as] A blind hen can sometimes find her corn [so even a know-little investor can sometimes make a good investment. Therefore ensure any advice you seek comes from someone with a good track record, through all sorts of economic conditions, rather than just good luck.]" - French Proverb

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[Quote No.31585] Need Area: Money > Invest
"A mass of men [and women] equals a mass of opinions." - Daniel Webster

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[Quote No.31590] Need Area: Money > Invest
"For people to understand why share markets boom and then crash, it would help them to read 'Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion' by Dr. Robert B. Cialdini. Cialdini spends an entire chapter on Social Proof. He explains it as something that happens when we use the actions of others to decide what is right for us in a given situation. The more we see other people doing something, the more correct we feel that action to be - especially when we view those people as similar to ourselves. You might have heard this called 'herd mentality' or 'group think.' In investing, it is the reason booms go to excessive levels as everyone piles onto the bandwagon even though the share prices may no longer offer any long term profit and in fact be getting ready to fall dramatically - when people start to realise this and sell out of the share market, encouraging still more people to sell and this is called a crash.] " - Seymour@imagi-natives.com

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[Quote No.31592] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Bond Basics: Who do you think has a better deal going: an entrepreneur or a banker? Investing in stocks and bonds offers a pretty similar risk-reward trade-off. When you buy a stock, you're becoming a partial owner of a company. If the enterprise thrives, you get a cut of the profits, either through a rise in its stock price reflecting growing earnings power, or via regular payments known as shareholder dividends. If the company becomes sickly, you're likely to suffer too, as the price of your stock sinks and the dividend payments are cut or suspended. Bondholders, on the other hand, are like mini-bankers. When you buy a bond, you are lending money to a company or government entity. In exchange, the borrower agrees to pay you a fixed rate of interest, known as a bond dividend. Unlike the dividends on stocks, these are legal obligations and can only be suspended by the issuer in the most dire of circumstances. Because the payments are supposed to be set at a predetermined rate, bonds are known as fixed-income investments. When you lend out your money by buying bonds, the party that issues them is legally bound not only to pay you regular dividends but to return the money you lent it, known as principal, at the end of a set term. Such terms can range from one day to 30 years. If the borrower runs into financial trouble in the meantime and becomes unable to repay all its obligations, or if it declares bankruptcy outright, the law states that bondholders get back their principal before stockholders receive a dime. That safety is appealing in volatile markets. 'In an environment where stock dividends are being ratcheted down or extinguished, you can count on the coupons from your bonds,' says Marilyn Cohen, Forbes' fixed-income columnist. How are bond dividend rates set? Based on the level of risk bondholders incur. Safety comes in two basic forms: The stability of the issuer and the length of time its bonds will be in circulation. At the safest end of the issuing spectrum are short-term U.S. government bonds, which currently pay around 0.5% a year in dividends (long-term ones are paying around 2.5%). Among the riskiest are corporate bond issuers. Dividends on bonds maturing within a few years can run in excess of 20% annually. Bankruptcy by an issuer is by no means the only risk bondholders incur. As the maturity of a bonds lengthens, the risk also rises that inflation will kick up and erode the value of bondholders' fixed-income payments. That's another reason the longer the maturity of bonds from a given issuer, the higher its regular dividend payments tend to be. Even if an issuer continues to cover its bond payments, higher inflation will erode the value of a bond, and its price will fall in the same way a stock's price does (the price matters most you intend to sell a bond before it matures; if you hold it until maturity, you'll still be entitled to receive back the full par value). Deciding which bonds or bond mutual funds are right for you means figuring out where on the risk-reward spectrum you're comfortable. To get comfortable, it helps to know a bit of bond-market lingo. The government or company selling the bond is the issuer (bonds themselves are sometime referred to as issues). The amount of money lent, the principal, is also known as the par, or face, value, because it represents how much the bond is worth at the time it's issued. The length of time the bond is outstanding before the principal is repaid is called the maturity period. The interest you're paid over the life of the bond is called the coupon rate. While most bonds pay dividends semi-annually, the periods can range from monthly to a single payment upon bond maturity. Perhaps your Grandma showed up at your 11th birthday party with a Treasury bill instead of the Nintendo game you really wanted. Treasuries are debt securities sold directly by the U.S. government and are the world's most widely circulated bonds. Treasuries come in three forms: Treasury bills have a maturity period of one year or less; Treasury notes, between two and 10 years; and Treasury bonds, which mature between 20 years and 30 after issuance. The Department of the Treasury issues bonds for the federal government, but it is by no means the only issuer in the government sector. Federal agencies, ranging from the Small Business Administration to the U.S. Postal Service, sell bonds, as do state, local and county governments. State and local government bonds are often categorized as municipal bonds, known as munis. They also include debt instruments issued by local agencies, like school and sewer districts. A big part of the attraction of munis is that their dividend payments are exempt from some or all federal, state and local taxes. This makes munis solid candidates to hold outside a retirement account, like a 401(k) or IRA, which are already sheltered from dividend taxes. Because your tax obligation is lower or non-existent on munis, their dividends tend to be somewhat lower than those paid on similarly risky taxable bonds. The other main category of bonds are corporate issues, or corporates. Since private enterprises, unlike governments, can't levy taxes to meet their bond obligations, corporate bonds are only as safe as the companies that issue them. Bonds from the most solid companies are referred to as investment-grade. The safest don't pay much more in dividends than the U.S. government, because they're considered nearly as unlikely as Uncle Sam to go bankrupt and default on their bonds. As the stability of bond issuers declines, the amount they must pay investors in regular dividends to convince them to own their bonds increases. At the high end of the risk spectrum is the high-yield debt, also known as junk bonds. The dividends on many are currently in the high teens. How do you buy a bond? If you're looking for safety and willing to live with low yields, you can buy U.S. Treasuries via TreasuryDirect.gov. There are no commissions or transaction costs in buying bonds this way, and it's remarkably user-friendly for a government Web site. Corporate bonds tend to carry a $1,000 par value. You can buy them through a broker, but you'll pay a commission and spread between the bid and ask prices. Unless you've got a lot to invest, you'll also end up with most or all of your eggs in one basket. A better idea for most small investors is a bond mutual fund. Pick one with an ultra-low expense ratio and no up-front sales charge, or load. That way, you - not the fund firm - will reap the rewards." - Asher Hawkins
From the 'Forbes' magazine, 14th April, 2009.
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[Quote No.31593] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The price/earnings multiple is not the only arrow in the stock analyst's quiver [to determine the value of a company's shares]. Another is price to net asset value, also called 'price to book' value. The 'book' value is the value ascribed to a company's assets - the assets that help produce the earnings - as recorded on the accounts. Even if we assume a company will make no money, or a loss, next year and maybe the next after, we can ignore earnings for the time being and simply look at asset values. If company XYZ owns a widget factory, and that widget factory is worth $10m, then surely at the very least the company should be worth $10m. Divide by the number of shares on issue, and you arrive at a share price valuation. Realistically you would be happy to buy shares in XYZ at anything much under $10m. But we do have to consider what that $10m actually represents. Is it the price the company paid for the factory in the first place? Is it the price an independent valuer suggests it is worth today? Is it the price we could realistically sell that factory for right now? Clearly these three values could all be quite different. The latter is probably the most relevant in today's market, given the credit crisis has forced over-geared companies to sell assets to avoid bankruptcy. There's no point in paying what equates to $10m for XYZ shares if its widget factory would only attract $7m if sold today. But would the price paid today reflect the true value of that widget company? Or would it only reflect a desperation, fire-sale price which grossly undervalues that widget factory for future use? Perhaps the most sensible price to consider would be one of replacement cost. If I wanted to start a widget business in 2009, what would it cost me to build a widget factory? This is a valuation model introduced by one James Tobin in 1969 which he called Tobin's Q. The model suggested simply that a stock was undervalued if its share price equated to less than replacement cost of its income producing assets, and overvalued if it equated to more. After all, suggested Tobin, you can't produce the earnings without the assets, so forget the earnings and go to the source. According to the analysts at GaveKal, US stock valuations crested at a net of two times replacement cost ten years ago. Today [in early 2009], they are priced at a 30% discount to replacement cost. In the last fifty years, such a discount has only occurred twice - in 1974 and 2001. On each occasion the market rebounded eventually, although in 1974 the discount did reach to 50%." - Greg Peel
Financial journalist with the financial website FNarena.
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[Quote No.31594] Need Area: Money > Invest
"As far as you are concerned, the stock market does not exist. Ignore it. [Only buy a company's shares when in aggregate they are below the price a reasonable business person would pay for buying the whole company in the real world rather than on the share market.]" - Warren Buffett
Highly successful value share investor and one of the richest men in the world.
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[Quote No.31608] Need Area: Money > Invest
"When in commercial, industrial and retail property analysts talk of capitalisation rates they are talking about rental yield capitalisation rates - e/p's rather than the earnings capitalisation rates - p/e's which share analysts use. So when property analysts say [yield] capitalisation rates are rising that means that due to greater risks in the property markets investors are demanding higher yields - e/p ratios and the way that is often achieved in that the P - price falls and therefore the yield capitalisation rate rises. This is confusing but hopfully this helps explain why when real estate analysts talk of higher capitalisation rates they are actually talking about higher yields and therefore lower real estate prices for the same earnings, rather than when share analysts talk of higher capitalisation rates which mean higher share prices for the same earnings." - unknown

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[Quote No.31614] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The sky is not less blue because the blind man does not see it." - Danish Proverb

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[Quote No.31615] Need Area: Money > Invest
"When you have the opportunity, you strike." - Rod Laver
Famous Australian tennis champion
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[Quote No.31624] Need Area: Money > Invest
"You have a choice between the natural stability of gold and the honesty and intelligence of the members of government [and their desire during difficulties to be seen to be 'doing something' and to stay in power by 'helping' their important supporters for as long as they can]. And with all due respect for those gentlemen [and women], I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, vote for gold [for at least a portion of your capital, as it is a proven store of purchasing power, during fearful economic times and periods of increasing money supply, currency devaluation and high inflation, which short-sighted governments deliberately choose in order to lower the real cost of their deficit spending and long term debt, regardless of the increased 'hidden' costs to their citizens, rather than the alternatives of reducing their government's size and spending and/or increasing taxes.]" - George Bernard Shaw

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[Quote No.31625] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The fate of an investor [at least if they are to be successful] is to always pay attention." - Alan Kohler
Highly respected Australian financial journalist.
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[Quote No.31637] Need Area: Money > Invest
"If there is one thing I have learned as an analyst of financial companies for almost 20 years, it’s that tangible common equity [subtract intangibles from assets and from equity. Divide the former by the latter] is the most important metric because it bears the first loss. I can’t emphasise this enough, and it is very crucial to track this ratio over time." - Steve Eisman
'Grant’s Interest Rate Observer' portfolio manager (at FrontPoint Financial Services Fund)
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[Quote No.31638] Need Area: Money > Invest
"An officer [CEO] should have at least a year's salary invested in the business. If he doesn't have that much faith in the company, he shouldn't be a key executive of it. If they don't own stock, why should " - Philip Carret
Legendary value share investor
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[Quote No.31639] Need Area: Money > Invest
"My system for over 30 years has been this: When stocks are attractive, you buy them. Sure, they can go lower. I've bought stocks at $12 that went to $2, but then they later went to $30. You just don't know when you can find the bottom." - Peter Lynch
Legendary, highly successful value share investor.
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[Quote No.31640] Need Area: Money > Invest
"For an unfailing index of corporate health, [track the trend of tangible common equity which is calculated in the following way:] subtract intangibles from assets and from equity. Divide the former by the latter." - James Grant
The editor of 'Grant’s Interest Rate Observer'
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[Quote No.31641] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Here are some ways to make money for more experienced investors:] 1. Selling Covered Call Options -- Selling (or 'writing') covered calls is one of the safest ways to generate extra income from the stocks in your portfolio. And due to the volatility in today's market, option premiums are currently much higher than their historical averages. As a 'seller' of options, that works in your favor. This is a strategy that could easily and safely generate 20 percent annual income for you. Selling covered calls is probably the lowest-risk form of options trading. It involves selling someone the right to buy a stock that you own at some time in the future. For this privilege, the option buyer pays you cash up front, thus lowering your cost basis for the shares you've purchased. Here's how it works... Let's assume you own 100 shares of stock ABC. The stock is trading for $10 and the July call options on it - with a 'strike' price of $11 - are selling for $1. So by selling one call option on your 100 shares of ABC (each call option represents 100 shares), you immediately receive $100 in your account. Therefore, your cost basis on this transaction is $900 ($1,000 - $100). There are three possible outcomes to this trade: 1- If ABC is trading for more than $11 before the option expiration date, the buyer would exercise his right to purchase the 100 shares of stock from you for $1,100. (He would then turn around and sell those shares, making a quick profit.) In this case, you would make 22 percent, based on your cost basis of $900. 2- If ABC is trading for less than $11 but more than $9 at the expiration date, you would still own the shares - at a gain - and you would pocket the cash you received up front. You could then repeat the process to generate another round of income. 3- If ABC is trading for less than $9 at expiration, you would be holding your shares at a loss. But the income you received up front by selling the call option would offset that loss. And, again, you could repeat the process to recoup more of the loss and generate additional income. The key to this strategy is to use it with stocks that you would like to hold for the long term. They could be stocks you already own or stocks you buy specifically for the purpose of writing covered call options - stocks you believe to be very safe and cheap. And you should employ this strategy at a time when option premiums are large... Ideally, you will be selling options that expire within three to five months. By writing covered calls on high-quality dividend-paying stocks, you can get an extra bonus. Best-case scenario, you keep the option premiums, you keep the dividends, and you keep the stock too! 2. Selling Put Options -- Selling puts is a strategy that can generate an annualized yield in the neighborhood of 30 percent to 50 percent. When executed properly, this strategy can be highly profitable and carry very low risk. That is especially true... where fear is high and option prices are elevated. This is a great way to buy stocks at a discount. Let's say you would love to buy IBM at $81 a share, but it's selling at $89 a share. In this case, you could sell the $81 put option. If the price falls below $81 before the option expiration date, you get your shares at the price you like. If the price stays above $81, you keep the premium and you can repeat the process. You can also sell puts with the goal of generating income. In this case, you'd want the puts to expire worthless so you can capture the option premium. To accomplish this goal, you sell puts that are 'out of the money' on stocks you believe to have very little downside risk... and which you would be willing to purchase at a much lower price. Here is an example... Let's assume that stock XYZ is selling for $13. We'll also assume the stock has already fallen by a significant amount and you believe the rock bottom liquidation value of the company is $8. With the stock trading at $13, the July $10 put option is well out of the money and selling for $1.50. You decide to sell those puts. When the trade closes, $150 will automatically show up in your account for every put contract you sold. The only way you could lose money on this trade is if XYZ trades below $8.50 ($10 minus $1.50) on or before the option expiration date in July. That would be a 35 percent drop from the depressed level the stock is trading at when you sell the puts. And in the unlikely event that you are obligated to purchase those shares below $8.50, you should still come out okay. After all, the liquidation value of the company is $8 a share, which makes the downside risk very small. This strategy should be employed on stocks where you believe the downside risk is minimal. And you should only employ it on stocks that you would be glad to own at a price below where you sell the put. You should also have a reasonable understanding of the true valuation of the company. For this reason, I would exclude most financial and insurance companies, as few people (including insiders) have any idea how much these companies are worth or what is on the books. By selling put options, you could buy super-high-quality stocks... Plus, you'll get cold, hard cash deposited in your account instantly... adding to your annual income! ... By no means are these the only strategies that can be highly profitable... [For instance you could also try] shorting stocks. But you should not just go out and short any stock [even in a recession]. The inevitable bear market rallies could put you in the poorhouse. The lowest risk opportunity is to short those stocks that are almost certainly going to zero - companies with an impaired business model and a massive debt load." - Jon Herring
Share advisor from 'Investor's Daily Edge'.
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[Quote No.31663] Need Area: Money > Invest
"God created economic forecasters to make meteorologists look good!" - Old Investment Saying

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[Quote No.31672] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The entire financial industry exists to sell product. If you don't understand this basic maxim, you'll be misled time after time." - Timothy Vick
Financial aanalyst and author of 'How to Pick Stocks Like Warren Buffett: Profiting from the Bargain Hunting Strategies of the World's Greatest Value Investor'.
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[Quote No.31673] Need Area: Money > Invest
"When that [inverted yield curve - short-term interest yields are higher than long-term interest yields] happens for longer than 90 days, a recession has always followed within 12 months. [The stock market drops an average of 43% during a recession, but if when the yield curve inverts you progressively go into long-term bonds when the recession hits and the government loosens monetary policy - lowers interest rates - to stimulate the economy during the recession the prices of your bonds which have fixed yields will rise to be consistent with that lower yield. After the rise in bond prices, it is time to progressively sell out of the bonds and go back into shares at their now much lower prices, although that may not be the start of another bull market. At the beginning of real bull markets, volume is strong and rising. In bear market rallies, which characterise recessions, it is weak (modest at best) and shows no real sign of becoming strong. Often these bear market rallies are just [1] swing traders, buying when the downward trend is 'oversold', that is falling faster than trend, or [2] a short squeeze. When [1] the downward trend is 'overbought' falling slower than the trend swing traders sell having made a small profit or [2] the short squeeze is over, then the buying will stop and the market will continue to drop. Remember, it takes buying and lot of it to move a market up but only a lack of buying to create a bear market. There is a term called the second derivative of a recession which is when the economic data shows the economy is not falling as fast as before. Many investors use this as a signal to go back into the share market as they feel the economy might rebound within 9 months as the market is forward looking. While this can be a useful signal it is important to understand that this is not always the case and analysts' forward eaning estimates are often still too optimistic at this stage of a recession, as they are notoriously reluctant to lower estimates because it would force them to put out a sell recommendation which they always try to avoid, regardless of the damage to the small investors who listen to their advice.]" - John Mauldin
President of Millennium Wave Advisors, LLC (MWA).
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[Quote No.31693] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Illusions [especially in stock markets] commend themselves to us because they save us pain and allow us to enjoy pleasure instead. We must therefore accept it without complaint when they sometimes collide with a bit of reality against which they are dashed to pieces. [and markets, for example, crash back to reality]" - Sigmund Freud

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[Quote No.31694] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Changes in temporary [as opposed from full-time] jobs lead reversals in the overall labor market by 6 to 10 months." - Jim Welsh
Principal of Welsh Money Management, that has been publishing the monthly investment letter, 'The Financial Commentator', since 1985. His analysis focuses on Federal Reserve monetary policy, and how policy affects the economy and the financial markets.
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[Quote No.31695] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Future likely unemployment figures are usually first seen in credit card arrears rates, before they are seen in official unemployment figures. The arrears figures therefore act as reasonable forecasters of unemployment some 6-12 months in the future." - Economist's axiom

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[Quote No.31698] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The stock market is made up of four types of people [or should I say 'animal spirits'] ...bulls ['It's going up'], bears ['It's going down'], pigs ['I'll get out after just a bit more profit. Damn!'] and sheep ['Everyone else is doing it']." - Old Stock Market Saying

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