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  Quotations - Invest  
[Quote No.31704] Need Area: Money > Invest
"A man is his own easiest dupe, for what he wishes to be true he generally believes to be true." - Demosthenes

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[Quote No.31705] Need Area: Money > Invest
"He that that hath a head of wax must not approach the fire." - French Proverb

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[Quote No.31706] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Is there a cure...for credit excesses [debt binges by consumers, businesses and governments that periodically punctuate a country's economy]? The Austrian economists say no. The only cure is prevention. Once the disease has been unleashed, you can only deal with the misallocated capital [ie speculation rather than production] by trying to liquidate the losses and begin again. [The famous Austrian economist] Ludwig Von Mises argued that the government control of the interest rate [through monetary policy, especially rates that are too cheap for too long - to stimulate economic growth usually for short-sighted, short-term political gain] is what sets off the boom/bust cycle to begin with. With a market [determined rather than government determined] rate of interest [or a natural rate of interest required to entice savers/lenders/capitalists to make their surplus capital available to borrowers by sufficiently rewarding them for carrying the risk], these booms and busts would be moderated. But that would destroy the illusion that central banks [and governments] can carefully manage an economy (price stability and full employment) by manipulating interest rates." - Dan Denning
Editor of the financial newsletter, 'The Daily Reckoning Australia'.
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[Quote No.31708] Need Area: Money > Invest
"...when I look back on my lifetime, it is obvious that letting inflation get a little bit out of control and not dealing with economic problems effectively in the'70s led to a very uncomfortable crisis [where interest rates had to be raised above 20% to finally bring inflation down]. We don't want to have to go through big recessions again to teach people fiscal responsibility." - Paul Volcker
Former Chairman of the US Federal Reserve. Quote from December of 2007 when interviewed for the documentary about excessive U.S. debt called 'I.O.U.S.A.'
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[Quote No.31709] Need Area: Money > Invest
"No, the Free Market Did Not Cause the Financial Crisis: The [2009 U.S.] economic stimulus plan may temporarily bolster the economy, but over the long term the profligate spending is more likely to drive us deeper into crisis than it is to save us. Read below to better understand how government intervention may be causing matters to get much worse... In March 2007 then-Treasury secretary Henry Paulson told Americans that the global economy was 'as strong as I've seen it in my business career.' 'Our financial institutions are strong,' he added in March 2008. 'Our investment banks are strong. Our banks are strong. They're going to be strong for many, many years.' Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said in May 2007, 'We do not expect significant spillovers from the subprime market to the rest of the economy or to the financial system.' In August 2008, Paulson and Bernanke assured the country that other than perhaps $25 billion in bailout money for Fannie and Freddie, the fundamentals of the economy were sound. Then, all of a sudden, things were so bad that without a $700 billion congressional appropriation, the whole thing would collapse. In the wake of this change of heart on the part of our leaders, Americans found themselves bombarded with a predictable and relentless refrain: the free market economy has failed. The alleged remedies were equally predictable: more regulation, more government intervention, more spending, more money creation, and more debt. To add insult to injury, the very people who had been responsible for the policies that created the mess were posing as the wise public servants who would show us the way out. And following a now-familiar pattern, government failure would not only be blamed on anyone and everyone but the government itself, but it would also be used to justify additional grants of government power. The truth of the matter is that intervention in the market, rather than the market economy itself, was the driving factor behind the bust. F.A. Hayek won the Nobel Prize for his work showing how the central bank's intervention into the economy gives rise to the boom-bust cycle, making us feel prosperous until we suffer the inevitable crash. Most Americans know nothing about Hayek's theory (known as the Austrian theory of the business cycle), and are therefore easy prey for the quacks who blame the market for problems caused by the manipulation of money and credit. The artificial booms the Fed provokes, wrote economist Henry Hazlitt decades ago, must end 'in a crisis and a slump, and...worse than the slump itself may be the public delusion that the slump has been caused, not by the previous inflation, but by the inherent defects of 'capitalism.'' Although my recently released book, 'Meltdown' explains the process in more detail, an abbreviated version of Austrian business cycle theory might run as follows: Government-established central banks can artificially lower interest rates by increasing the supply of money (and thus the funds banks have available to lend) through the banking system. This is supposed to stimulate the economy. What it actually does is mislead investors into embarking on an investment boom that the artificially low rates seem to validate but that in fact cannot be sustained under existing economic conditions. Investments that would have correctly been assessed as unprofitable are falsely appraised as profitable, and over time the result is the squandering of countless resources in lines of investment that should never have been begun. If lower interest rates are the result of increased saving by the public, this increase in saved resources provides the material wherewithal to see the additional investment through to completion. The situation is very different when the lower interest rates result from the Fed's creation of new money out of thin air. In that case, the lower rates do not reflect an increase in the pool of savings from which investors can draw. Fed tinkering, in other words, does not increase the real stuff in the economy. The additional investment that the lower rates encourage therefore leads the economy down a path that is not sustainable in the long run. Investment decisions are made that quantitatively and qualitatively diverge from what the economy can support. The bust must come, no matter how much new money the central bank creates in a vain attempt to stave off the inevitable day of reckoning. The recession or depression is the necessary, if unfortunate, correction process by which the malinvestments of the boom period, having at last been brought to light, are finally liquidated. The diversion of resources into unsustainable investments out of conformity with consumer desires and resource availability comes to an end, with businesses failing and investment projects abandoned. Although painful for many people, the recession/depression phase of the cycle is not where the damage is done. The bust is the period in which the economy sloughs off the malinvestments and the capital misallocation, re-establishes the structure of production along sustainable lines, and restores itself to health. The damage is done during the boom phase, the period of false prosperity that precedes the bust. It is then that the artificial lowering of interest rates causes the squandering of capital and the initiation of unsustainable investments. It is then that resources that would genuinely have satisfied consumer demand are diverted into projects that make sense only in light of the temporary and artificial conditions of the boom. Adding fuel to the fire of the most recent boom was the so-called Greenspan put, the unofficial policy of the Greenspan Fed that promised assistance to private firms in the event of risky investments gone bad. The Financial Times described it as the view that 'when markets unravel, count on the Federal Reserve and its chairman Alan Greenspan (eventually) to come to the rescue.' According to economist Antony Mueller, 'Since Alan Greenspan took office, financial markets in the U.S. have operated under a quasi-official charter, which says that the central bank will protect its major actors from the risk of bankruptcy. Consequently, the reasoning emerged that when you succeed, you will earn high profits and market share, and if you should fail, the authorities will save you anyway.' The Financial Times reported in 2000, in the wake of the dot-com boom, of an increasing concern that the Greenspan put was injecting into the economy 'a destructive tendency toward excessively risky investment supported by hopes that the Fed will help if things go bad.' When things do go bad, pumping more money into the banking system, thereby lowering interest rates once again, only exacerbates the problem, because it encourages the continued wasteful deployment of capital in unsustainable lines that will eventually have to be abandoned anyway, and it forces healthy, wealth-generating firms to have to go on competing with bubble firms for labor and capital. When interest rates are made artificially low, they encourage the kind of investment that would normally occur only if more saved resources existed to fund them than actually do. Continuing to force interest rates down only perpetuates the allocation of capital into outlets that the economy's current resource base cannot sustain. In response to the dot-com and NASDAQ collapses and the modest recession that accompanied them in 2000 and 2001 that Alan Greenspan and the Fed chose to embark on a robust policy of inflation, an approach that culminated in lowering the federal funds rate (the rate at which banks lend to each other) to a mere one percent from June 2003 to June 2004. Already by early 2001 the Fed had begun to ease once again. That year saw no fewer than 11 rate cuts. The unsustainable dot-com boom could not, in the end, be reignited, and thank goodness - the resource misallocations in that sector were unhealthy for the economy. But the Fed's easy money and refusal to allow the recession of 2000 to take its course led to an even more perilous bubble elsewhere. That was the only recession on record in which housing starts did not decline. Not coincidentally, that was also the moment at which people began to conclude that house prices never fall, that a house is the best investment one can make, and so on. By intervening in the market then, the Fed prevented the market from making a full correction, thereby perpetuating unsustainable investment and consumption decisions. In so doing it merely postponed what it was trying to avoid, and made the crash worse when it finally came. Fiscal stimulus, meanwhile, merely diverts resources from the productive sector in order to fund money-losing enterprises arbitrarily chosen by government. These artificial expenditures, moreover, interfere with the market's attempt to sort out genuine demand from bubble demand. 'Stimulus' spending can in fact keep firms (construction companies, for example) in business that for the sake of genuine economic health need to be liquidated so their resources can be more sensibly employed in more urgently demanded lines of production. The claim that 'stimulus' spending is necessary to bring 'idle resources' back into use also misfires, since it fails to consider why so many entrepreneurs - who have survived as long as they have on the market because of their skill at anticipating consumer demand - should suddenly have become, all at once, such poor forecasters that they're all saddled with idle resources. The reason for the idle resources is, obviously, some prior act of miscalculation. And what could have created such systemic miscalculation? Could it be the Fed's artificially low interest rates, that distort entrepreneurial forecasting and encourage the wrong kind of investments at the wrong time? Consider a restaurant owner who mistakes the temporary demand for his product deriving from the presence of the Olympics in his city with real, sustainable demand. Suppose he opens a new location to accommodate all this new demand. When the Olympics are over, he's left with idle resources - labor with nothing to do and empty restaurant space for starters. Should we want to 'stimulate' these resources back into activity? Of course not. They shouldn't have been allocated this way in the first place. We should want the market, guided by the price system, to redeploy them into sensible channels. The problem, therefore, isn't that we lack enough 'spending' or 'demand,' and that we need government to fill in the 'missing demand.' The problem is that in the wake of Fed-induced misallocations of resources we wind up with structural imbalances, a mismatch between the capital structure and consumer demand. The recession is the period in which the economy repairs this mismatch by reallocating resources into lines of production that actually correspond to consumer demand. The modern preoccupation with levels of spending instead of patterns of spending obscures the most important aspects of the question. Had the market been allowed to work before the collapse, there would have been no housing bubble and no crisis in the first place. Had the market been allowed to work when the crisis hit, recovery would have been swift - as it was in 1920-21, when an even worse depression came to a rapid end without any open-market operations by the Fed, and without any fiscal stimulus. (In fact, the federal budget was cut in half from 1920 to 1922.) What, in short, should we do now? Exactly the opposite of what our so-called experts, who in a sane world would be forever discredited, urge upon us." - Thomas E. Woods, Jr.
He is a New York Times bestselling author of nine books, and a senior fellow at the Ludwig von Mises Institute. He holds a bachelor's degree from Harvard and his master's, M.Phil., and Ph.D. from Columbia University. Published in 'The Daily Reckoning Australia', Wednesday, 6 May 2009.
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[Quote No.31711] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Whenever you find that you are on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect. [This is especially the case in investing. In this way it's possible to avoid unthinking herd behaviour - doing something just because others are doing it - as this, particularly at turning points in the business cycle can cause very costly mistakes.]" - Mark Twain

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[Quote No.31724] Need Area: Money > Invest
"As a group, lemmings have a rotten image, but no [fund managing] individual lemming has ever received bad press." - Warren E. Buffett
One of the richest men in the world and a highly successful value investor.
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[Quote No.31729] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Statistics if tortured sufficiently will confess to anything." - Economic saying

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[Quote No.31730] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The essence of the past is experience; the essence of the future is opportunity; and the essence of wisdom is to properly connect the two." - Jackson D. Pemperton

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[Quote No.31734] Need Area: Money > Invest
"F.A. Hayek won the Nobel Prize 25 years ago for demonstrating that central bank intervention into the economy is responsible for the boom-bust cycle. He demonstrated that loose monetary policy and fiscal stimulus encourages the wasteful use of capital. More of the same just delays and exaggerates the problem. Thomas E. Woods, Jr, who is a senior fellow at the Ludwig von Mises Institute...[in his recent book]... explains how an increase of money supply leads to inefficient allocation of capital into unsustainable and non productive enterprises. Also how fiscal policy drains capital to money-losing enterprises arbitrarily chosen by the government... These government actions [stimulus packages] reduce the efficiency of the market to the detriment of future growth. In Bill Bonner's words, 'the greatness of a depression is commensurate to the government's efforts to stop it.' Half a century ago, during the recession of '57-58, the US experienced a 6% (annualised) economic contraction, similar to today [2009]. It was over in 6 months. What did the Fed[eral Reserve] do to achieve this? They did next to nothing. There was effectively no monetary stimulus, compared to the current stimulus, which is equivalent to 18% of GDP. The fiscal stimulus was worth 3.2%, compared to today's 100% of GDP. Unfortunately the lesson didn't stick, and each recession since then has been fought off with increasing doses of monetary and fiscal policy. Each hangover has been dosed with increasing amounts of alcohol. Einstein said 'We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.' So perhaps its time for the Fed to try something different, like doing nothing. [and letting the free market - that's consumers like you and me - decide, by how we spend our money, which companies deserve to survive and which don't. This is the most efficient way to remove malinvestments and remind all businesses that they need to focus on profitably providing the consumer with what they want with as little risk and debt as possible.]" - Dr. Alex Cowie
He writes for the financial newsletter, 'The Daily Reckoning - Australia'. Published in the weekly review 8th May, 2009.
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[Quote No.31792] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[When trying to value the housing market, analysts consider many things including the price-to-average wage statistic as well as the price-to-rent figure.] The price-rent ratio can be compared to a price-earnings, or even better a price-dividend, ratio in finance. It measures the relative value of the asset: the price of the asset (purchase price of a home) divided by its flow of fundamental value (rental income earned or the value of having a roof over your head). As the price-rent ratio grows, the market value moves away from its fundamental value." - Rebecca Wilder
American economist.
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[Quote No.31802] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Don't take financial advice from someone who's shouting." - Ben Stein

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[Quote No.31812] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Once a government debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 10% and beyond, it begins to drag on GDP growth and lead to even higher deficits (ie-lower tax takings, higher debt-servicing costs). " - Dan Denning
Financial journalist who writes for 'The Daily Reckoning Australia'.
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[Quote No.31814] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Investing is serious business. Getting it right is the difference between a retirement spent in comfort (or luxury) and spending your golden years counting nickels, worrying whether you'll have enough. The difference could hardly be starker. [Therefore it is important for each person to learn enough to either manage their investments themselves or at least oversee the investments others make on their behalf.]" - Alexander Green
Chairman of Investment U and author of the book, 'The Gone Fishin' Portfolio'.
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[Quote No.31827] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Money can be a solid, a liquid, or a gas depending upon the temperature of the economy. At normal temperatures, money runs freely, watering the economy. And when things really get hot, it vaporizes, creating gaseous bubbles such as those of the late Bubble Period. But when the temperature falls, money shivers in wallets and bank accounts - reluctant to go out into the cold. Economists refer to the 'velocity of money' to describe the magnifying effects of motion. When the same dollar bill appears in three different places in the same day, it is as if the money supply had been multiplied three-fold. In a freeze, on the other hand, it comes to a dead stop." - Bill Bonner
Financial writer.
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[Quote No.31839] Need Area: Money > Invest
"You may be wondering why the 'worst' stocks do so well coming off of [share market] bottoms and the performance of the 'best' stocks is only ho hum. The answer lies in what the Pros do. The Pros become defensive and go into the 'best' [low debt, stable earnings] stocks when the market goes down. They will also short the weaker [high-debt cyclical earnings] stocks, driving them into the ground. When they sense a bottom, they'll cover their short positions, driving the 'worst' stocks sharply higher. They'll also buy many of the volatile, 'high Alpha' stocks, they had previously shorted, driving them even higher. Finally, they'll rotate out of their defensive positions, causing these solid stocks to underperform; then go into high momentum stocks...as the rally rolls on." - Dr. Bart DiLiddo
He’s a trained mathematician with a PhD from Case Western Reserve University, is a graduate of the Sloan School of Management at MIT and is the developer of the VectorVest share trading system.
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[Quote No.31853] Need Area: Money > Invest
"If you wait until the economy is working properly to buy stocks, it's almost certainly too late. [This is because the market looks past problems to recovery and snaps up bargains while others worry. It is important however to be able to tell the difference between true bargains and cheap stocks that will become cheaper or even go bankrupt.] " - Charlie Munger
Lawyer, property developer, share investor and Warren Buffett's longtime business partner.
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[Quote No.31854] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Markets have natural rhythms. They go [from Summer to Winter] from boom to bust...from inflation to deflation...from expansion to contraction naturally. Trying to stop the bust is futile. It is a fight against Fate...a losing proposition. And it is diabolically unnatural. You have to take the bad with the good in life. There's no going to Heaven without dying. And you can't rebuild a house without tearing down the old one. Mistakes must be corrected. Old, worn-out businesses have to go out of business so that new ones can take their places. Bad investments need to be deflated...liquidated. Failed managers and failed business models must be eliminated." - Bill Bonner
Financial journalist, author and publisher.
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[Quote No.31863] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The long-term mean growth of the economy of a country, a business or a family is determined primarily by growth in population [including employment participation and market size], productivity, inflation and debt [which must be sustainable in both good and bad times]. This limits most stock markets to about 6-7% per year capital growth per year. When it increases faster than this it is important to work out why in order to determine how long it will continue and what economic indicators will predict its decline back to the mean." - Seymour@imagi-natives.com

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[Quote No.31870] Need Area: Money > Invest
"My philosophy is to look for opportunities where you can invest where there is a good yield and a good long-term outlook. If you can apply that to companies then you should invest in them." - Alan Rydge
Veteran conservative, long-term Australian share investor and chairman of Carlton Investments.
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[Quote No.31873] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Understanding investor and consumer sentiment is an important adjunct to studying the accounts of any company and the economy and thereby investing successfully. Here is part of an article from MSN Money that details unusual economic indicators that reflect this understanding. Remember of course that the very best value buying occurs when everything looks blackest and then starts to improve slightly. This is because investors are forward looking and therefore markets can rise before the following unusual coincident indicators confirm economic improvement.] Guys, if you want to know where the economy is headed next, look in your underwear drawer. If you're like most men, you've got more than a few skivvies in, well, less than perfect condition. If you're put off buying replacements - and your significant other hasn't done it for you - then guess what? The recession probably ain't over yet. In fact, right now [2009] men's underwear sales suggest that things have bottomed but not started to recover. Sure, this sounds trivial. But no less an economist than former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan is a fan of men's underwear sales as an important economic indicator. It's one of several unusual indicators economists turn to in hard times... Underneath the underwear indicator -- Greenspan reasons that because hardly anyone actually sees a guy's undies, they're the first thing men stop buying when the economy tightens. (He told this to National Public Radio's Robert Krulwich years ago.) By extension, pent-up demand means underwear sales should be among the early risers when growth returns and consumers feel confident enough to shrug off 'frugal fatigue,' says Marshal Cohen, the chief industry analyst with NPD Group, which tracks consumer behavior. After a 12-month, 12% decline through the end of January [2009], men's underpants sales leveled off during February and March, according to NPD. That suggests the economic was stabilizing, Cohen says. For a recovery, we'd need to see a return to 2% to 3% annual growth in underwear sales. And that's not in the cards, believes Bill Patterson, an analyst at consumer research company Mintel. Based on market research and surveys, Mintel predicts a 2.3% decline this year in men's underwear sales and no recovery until 2013. That's four more years of saggy elastic and threadbare cotton. Bra sales headed up? -- Folks such as Greenspan don't seem to look as closely at women's lingerie - reasoning, perhaps, that women are more sensitive about wearing worn undergarments. But Cohen says a pickup in sales of bras, as well as denim and footwear, will indicate the economy is on the mend. These are the sorts of items consumers wear longer in a recession, then replace when they feel confident enough to shop again. Bra sales were up 4% during the first quarter, a key reversal given that women turned more frugal this recession than men did. Usually men pull back on spending more. But denim and footwear sales remain sluggish, which suggests only stabilization, not recovery. Watch those hemlines and midriffs -- While economists now track sales, hemlines served as an oddball indicator for much of the previous century. In tough times, the experts muse, hemlines drop as an expression of conservatism [social as well as economic], only to rise again as the markets hit go-go mode. During the late-1990s boom, the hemline indicator was supplanted by a midriff meter, as more women bared their stomachs as the popularity of tech stocks (and Britney Spears) peaked. When the financial mess hit two years ago [2007], blouses began replacing halter tops, and midriffs started to vanish, observes Jeffrey Hirsch of the Stock Trader's Almanac, which looks for seasonal and other patterns that traders can play. If you believe this indicator, Hirsch says to watch for bellybuttons, plunging necklines and higher hemlines to confirm that we are in recovery mode. As I write this, looking around the streets of New York City on a warm spring day, it doesn't seem we are there yet. The 'can I return this?' indicator -- The amount of stuff consumers return to stores can also tell us when a rebound is in store, says William Angrick, the chief of Liquidity Services. Retailers normally don't share much information about returns, but Angrick isn't shy about it. His company buys returned items from retailers and sells them to other businesses, which put them back on the market. Returns have spiked for pricey discretionary items - such as high-end apparel and shoes, expensive electronics and top-of-the-line tools and grills - just as they did during the previous recession. 'It's been high since October [2008],' says Angrick. And returns aren't letting up - as you'd expect if consumers felt recovery was on the way. Here's another bad sign: Angrick says the number of consumers who band together to amass the larger buying power needed to purchase directly from Liquidity Services - like the soccer moms who recently bought a bunch of Guitar Hero games and game boxes - is not letting up either. That's a sign they're not confident enough to pay retail. The end-of-the-month squeeze indicator -- Some working people and a lot of those on government assistance get paid once a month, usually near the beginning of each month. So during recessions, buying patterns change. Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, news, msgs) has noticed that when times are hard, purchases tend to bunch up at the beginning of the month, when aid and paychecks arrive. People also buy larger packages of stuff at the start of month and smaller ones at end of month as they stretch their budgets. These two trends have played out once again this recession, Wal-Mart spokesman John Simley says. And neither has let up, suggesting a recovery is not yet at hand. There's no shortage of quirky indicators in the retail world, in fact. Experts also look to doughnuts and hot dogs. Sales of both rise as consumers seek cheap, comforting foods. During an earlier bout of hard times, hot dogs were sold in more than one place as 'Depression sandwiches.' The nattering nabob indicator -- With the number of Internet blogs soaring, market analysts now see them as an excellent gauge of public sentiment. Todd Salamone of Schaeffer's Investments Research likes to use the Web site Blogpulse.com to chart the number of references to business-related phrases like 'recovery' or 'Great Depression of 1930s.' When the nattering nabobs of the blogosphere are using bullish phrases like 'green shoots' often, as they are now, it's a sign the public has become overly optimistic about the economy. That may sound like good news, but it's not - for stocks. When so many people are already bullish, there are few converts to jump in and push stocks higher. And it becomes harder for the next bit of good news to push up stocks. Widespread bullishness also leaves the markets more vulnerable to surprise bad news, Salamone says. The recent spike in bullish sentiment is one reason Schaeffer's Investments Research has a bearish short-term outlook for stocks. It may be better to wait for a spike in the use of negative terms - like 'recession' - in the blogosphere, to buy stocks. 'Periods of ultimate despair create an opportunity for positive surprises,' Salamone says. 'They become buying opportunities.' " - Seymour@imagi-natives.com

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[Quote No.31877] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Danger and delight grow on one stalk." - Scottish Proverb

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[Quote No.31907] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Wisdom without courage is futile." - Martin Luther
1569
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[Quote No.31912] Need Area: Money > Invest
"There are two ways the share market moves that makes any move hard to interpret: In a rising bull market it goes up two steps and then back one, while in a falling bear market it goes up one step and then back two. Therefore knowing whether you are in a rising bull or a falling bear market is critical to successful medium term investing." - Seymour@imagi-natives.com

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[Quote No.31915] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Rashness is the faithful, but unhappy parent of misfortune!" - R. Buckminster Fuller

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[Quote No.31917] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The wise do not call strong the fetter that is made of iron, wood, or rope; much stronger is the fetter of passion for gold and jewels... [Therefore don't be blinded by a chance for profit, cautiously consider risk, for an uncontrolled passion for] Wealth destroys the fool." - Buddha
Dhammapada [345, 355] - A collection of 423 verses containing the Buddha's essential teachings on some 305 occasions for the benefit of a wide range of human beings.
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[Quote No.31932] Need Area: Money > Invest
"A ship should not ride on a single anchor, nor life [or investing] on a single hope." - Epictetus

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[Quote No.31936] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Remember, you should never make an investment based purely on the tax incentives provided by an investment. [Any investment should be justifiable, before considering any tax situation.] First, because if that's the main selling point, the chances are the actual investment is rubbish. And second, the tax breaks rely on the government of the day not changing the rules. [Never forget poor quality investments always do badly over the long term and any compensating advantage from tax deductibility can be an expensive illusion as situations, governments and laws change.] " - Kris Sayce
Editor of the financial newsletter, 'Money Morning'.
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[Quote No.31953] Need Area: Money > Invest
"It is a good thing to learn caution from the misfortunes of others." - Publilius Syrus

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[Quote No.31959] Need Area: Money > Invest
"One of the best indicators of the long term trend in the share market is the Coppock indicator. Unlike other technical analysis tools, it was designed specifically to identify strategic buy signals for long term investors, rather that just short-term trading opportunities. While it does not catch the very bottom of a bear market, which frankly no method has been found to do reliably, it has a good record of confirming a market rally to be the beginning of a new bull market rather than just a short term bear market rally before the share market falls even further. It has an interesting history. The story goes, that in the United States in the early 1960s, the Episcopalian Church asked Edwin Coppock, a business economist, if he could come up with something that might spot long-term buying opportunities. Coppock must have thought the stress released by a major bear market was emotionally comparable to bereavement because he responded by asking the church to tell him how long, on average, a period of mourning might last. He was told between 11 and 14 months. Therefore he developed a 10-month weighted moving average of the sum of the 14-month rate of change and the 11-month rate of change in the relevant index. The confirmation or buy signal comes when the indicator is below zero and then turns upwards from a trough. To be even more certain, other markets around the world should also have their Coppock indicators turning up, the 210 day moving average should have been crossed on increasing volume and the advance decline ratio line, a-d-line, should have rebounded from a previous a-d-line support level. While there may be some pullbacks, when the relative strength indicator shows the market has been overbought in people's enthusiasm to get into the rising market, long term investors have found this to be a quite reliable indicator and therefore start buying when the market dips, expecting it to reverse and rise still higher." - Seymour@imagi-natives.com

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[Quote No.31960] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Ever wanted to know the difference between sell-side and buy-side analysts? Sell-side are the stock brokers and their analysts who advise and sell to the public, while the buy-side are the fund managers and analysts, who buy for their own funds, which are listed on the stock market and therefore open to the public to buy shares in." - Seymour@imagi-natives.com

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[Quote No.31973] Need Area: Money > Invest
"All developed countries have agencies to regulate their financial system. In Australia the prudential regulation system was restructured by the Treasurer, Peter Costello in 1997. It divided the key responsibilities cleanly and clearly between the Reserve Bank (monetary policy and systemic stability), the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (banks and other deposit-taking institutions) and the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (markets, consumer protection and corporations). All state-based regulators were subsumed into the new structure and the Australian Council of Financial Regulators was created to give the regulators and Treasury an holistic view of what was happening in the system. Understanding the motives, views and behaviour of these institutions helps investors make good decisions. Just like in the US with their Federal Reserve and its behaviour, which has spawned the advice, 'Don't fight the Fed.'" - Seymour@imagi-natives.com

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[Quote No.31984] Need Area: Money > Invest
"When business is bad, buy stocks. [As the old stock market saying goes, 'Buy 'em when they hate ‘em', because, so long as the companies chosen survive the bad economy, the lack of demand for their shares will result in their prices being very attractive and therefore produce very good long term returns]" - Warren Buffett
Highly successful value share investor and one of the richest men in the world.
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[Quote No.31985] Need Area: Money > Invest
"You have to understand that being wrong is part of the investment process." - Peter Bernstein
Highly respected investment analyst and financial author.
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[Quote No.31987] Need Area: Money > Invest
"There never was in the world two opinions alike, no more than two hairs or two grains. The most universal quality is diversity. [This is the very basis of the share market, where one believes a share is going up and wants to buy it while another believes it is going down and wants to sell it.]" - Michel Eyquem De Montaigne

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[Quote No.31997] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[As a long-term value investor, you must actively fight against any all-pervading mood of pessimism in the market when it is falling consistently, just as you must during times of all-pervading optimism, when it is rising strongly] ...the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage [of judging a company's shares by the company's past and likely future long term business performance rather than the short-term share price movement] into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons’ mistakes of [short-term] judgment." - Benjamin Graham
Famous and highly successful investor, who promoted the idea of buying shares of good companies in market downturns, when others are pessimistic and selling their shares below their fair long-term value, in his best-selling book, 'The Intelligent Investor'.
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[Quote No.31999] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[It is especially true in investing that] Wisdom consists of the anticipation of consequences." - Norman Cousins

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[Quote No.32001] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Planning helps prevent harm rather than cure it after it happens. This is especially true in investing:] ...it's a heck of a lot easier [and a lot less painful emotionally and economically] to avoid a serious mistake [loss] than to repair the damage caused by one... [therefore] you should make it a habit to picture the possible consequences of your actions before acting. [and use this greater understanding to maximise your return while minimising and managing your risk. If necessary it is wise and mature to accept less return in order to reduce your risk of loss. It is an investing truism that there are bold investors and old investors but no old, bold investors. Too bold a desire for fast money has destroyed more investors and businesses than it has helped. Although there will always be stories of those whose massive gambles paid off, they are in the minority. Slow and steady, as Aesop taught in the story of the tortoise and the hare, succeeds better in long-term investing, which is mostly about minimising losses. As they say, 'Drop by drop the cup is filled' the fastest by those that spill the least.]" - Robert Ringer

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[Quote No.32004] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The only certainty is surprise." - Alex Green

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[Quote No.32007] Need Area: Money > Invest
"We exaggerate misfortune and happiness alike. We are never as bad off or as happy as we say we are. [This is usually true of the financial media too, which is prone to bouts of excessive optimism in a bull market and extreme pessimism in a bear market. This is why markets can be wildly overvalued in a bull market and amazingly undervalued in a bear market.]" - Honore de Balzac
Famous French writer.
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[Quote No.32013] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Superior knowledge is the foundation of consistently successful long-term investing...] Do not underestimate the value of due diligence... If you just read the annual reports of companies, you will have done more than 98 per cent of investors. If you read the notes of the financial statements, you will be ahead of 99.5 per cent... Talk to customers, suppliers, competitors, and anyone else who might affect the company... cross-check information from the media with other available sources including government reports, competitive views... scan the copy closely for language that sounds like it came straight off a company press release [and therefore may be biased. Remember you can never be too sceptical, do too much research or be too knowledgeable.]" - Jim Rogers
Famous investor in his book, ‘A Gift to my Children: A father’s lessons for life and investing’.
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[Quote No.32024] Need Area: Money > Invest
"To avoid overpaying, use multiple metrics - not just price-to-earnings but price-to-sales and price-to-book... Compare a company with both the whole market and peers. Buy quality cheaply." - Ken Fisher
Forbes Magazine, July 13, 2009.
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[Quote No.32025] Need Area: Money > Invest
"To trade successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a technician. It is imperative that we understand the fundamentals driving a trade, but also that we understand the market’s technicals. When we do, then, and only then, can we or should we, trade. -- Keep your technical systems simple. Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance. -- An understanding of mass psychology is often more important than an understanding of economics. Markets are driven by human beings making human errors and also making super-human insights. -- Establish initial positions on strength in bull markets and on weakness in bear markets. The first 'addition' should also be added on strength as the market shows the trend to be working. Henceforth, subsequent additions are to be added on retracements [pullbacks]. -- Do more of that which is working and less of that which is not: If a market is strong, buy more; if a market is weak, sell more. -- Be patient with winning trades; be enormously impatient with losing trades. Remember it is quite possible to make large sums trading/investing if we are 'right' only 30% of the time, as long as our losses are small and our profits are large. " - Dennis Gartman
Well known trader.
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[Quote No.32026] Need Area: Money > Invest
"There is an old saying in the markets when contemplating the end of a bear that is transitioning into a new bull market...'First comes price [increases on the share market], then comes optimism, and then come earnings [increases. If earnings don't increase, then market prices fall and the rise is considered just another bear market rally rather than the beginning of a new bull market]. " - Brian Pretti
Financial Sense Observations - financialsense.com.
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[Quote No.32031] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The one who adapts his policy to the times prospers, and likewise that the one whose policy clashes with the demands of the times does not!" - Niccolo Machiavelli

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[Quote No.32039] Need Area: Money > Invest
"You'll always miss 100% of the shots you don't take." - Wayne Gretzky
(1961 - ), Canadian Hockey Player
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[Quote No.32063] Need Area: Money > Invest
"While it is easy to write scare stories about... unemployment, I am certain that the single best way to make sure you make no money in the recovery when it starts is via focusing on the most lagging of lagging economic indicators which is unemployment. You, must, must, must focus on leading indicators and global trade flow indicators (shipping prices, commodity inventories, financing activity, port volumes etc) if you are going to be positioned correctly for the recovery when it comes... In a world that is totally about getting sentiment right that is the key variable. Bull markets climb the walls of worry; that’s how it works. However, to genuinely make money we must be two or three steps ahead of the consensus pack." - Charlie Aitken
Executive Director of Southern Cross Equities.
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[Quote No.32076] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The results of this study [a 2003 study from the U.S. Federal Reserve into the increased borrowing costs for the U.S. government because of rising deficit-to-GDP ratios] suggest that interest rates [the 10-year bond rate expected to prevail five years into the future] rise by about 25 basis points [0.25%] in response to a percentage point increase in the projected deficit-to-GDP ratio, and by about 4 basis points [0.04%] in response to a percentage point increase in the projected debt-to-GDP ratio." - Thomas Laubach
The author of a 2003 study from the U.S. Federal Reserve into the increased borrowing costs for the U.S. government because of rising deficit-to-GDP ratios.
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[Quote No.32077] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Health care is countercyclical. When times gets tough, the last thing consumers cut back on is medical services. [This is the reason their earnings and therefore prices in recessions fall less than more discretionary-spend cyclical stocks] " - Patrick Cox

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[Quote No.32078] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Why do booms, historically, continue for several years? What delays the reversion process? The answer is that as the boom begins to peter out from an injection of credit expansion, the banks inject a further dose. In short, the only way to avert the onset of the depression is to continue inflating money and credit. For only continual doses of new money on the credit market will keep the boom going and the new stages profitable. Furthermore, only ever increasing doses can step up the boom, can lower interest rates further, and expand the production structure, for as the prices, rise, more and more money will be needed to perform the same amount of work. Once the credit expansion stops, the market ratios are re-established, and the seemingly glorious new investments turn out to be malinvestments, built on a foundation of sand. It is clear that prolonging the boom by ever larger doses of credit expansion will have only one result: to make the inevitably ensuing depression longer and more grueling. The way to prevent a depression, then, is simple: avoid starting a boom." - Murray N. Rothbard
Libertarian and Austrian economist. From his book, 'Man, Economy, and State', published in 1962.
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