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  Quotations - Invest  
[Quote No.34163] Need Area: Money > Invest
"I cleared about three million dollars in 1916 by being bullish as long as the bull market lasted and then by being bearish when the bear market started. As I said before, a man does not have to marry one side of the market till death do them part." - Jesse Livermore
Highly successful share trader. From his book, 'Reminiscences of a Stock Operator'.
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[Quote No.34164] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Remember too that it is dangerous to start spreading out all over the market. By this I mean, do not have an interest in too many stocks at one time. It is much easier to watch a few than many. I made that mistake years ago and it cost me money." - Jesse Livermore
Highly successful share trader. From his book, 'How to Trade in Stocks'.
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[Quote No.34165] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Successful traders always follow the line of least resistance. Follow the trend. [That is what the market is already doing. Very few people know enough to know the value of a stock and buy when it has reached a margin of safety below this. Remember the market can stay irrational and go and stay below this value for longer than you can stay solvent, as many inexperienced 'value' investors have discovered to their disappointment. Remember...] The trend is your friend [until it bends. But for value investors by all means when a stock goes below its fair value and a safety margin just watch and wait until it starts to rise with the market. In this way you can be a successful trend-following value investor and get the best of both styles of investing]." - Jesse Livermore
Highly successful share trader. From his book, 'How to Trade in Stocks'.
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[Quote No.34166] Need Area: Money > Invest
"When you make a trade, you should have a clear target where to sell if the market moves against you. And you must obey your rules! Never sustain a loss of more than 10% of your capital. Losses are twice as expensive to make up. I always established a stop before making a trade... A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong - not taking a loss [and not letting profits continue] - that is what does damage to the pocketbook and to the soul." - Jesse Livermore
Highly successful share trader. From his book, 'How to Trade in Stocks'.
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[Quote No.34167] Need Area: Money > Invest
"People who look for easy money [and won't work at studying the economy, companies, investing methods and markets] invariable pay for the privilege of proving conclusively that it cannot be found on this earth." - Jesse Livermore
Successful share trader
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[Quote No.34168] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Never be afraid of the normal [share market price] movement. But be very careful of abnormal movements, it is similar to a major change in personality." - Jesse Livermore
Successful share trader
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[Quote No.34169] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own." - Baron Rothschild
Highly successful banker and investor, 1871.
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[Quote No.34170] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The U.S. Federal Reserve is also active in currency markets, German Economics Minister Rainer Bruederle said Friday. His comments come on the heels of remarks made by his Swiss counterpart who said that the Swiss National Bank purchased euros to buttress the single currency. 'It is a regular procedure of central banks,' to intervene in currency markets, Bruederle said. 'It is not a secret,' that central banks have a foreign exchange rate target, he added. Bruederle said 'eruptive' movements have to be avoided." - Dow Jones Newswire
27th May, 2010.
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[Quote No.34197] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Always investigate before you invest, because...] He who wishes to deceive will never fail to find willing dupes." - Niccolo Machiavelli

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[Quote No.34229] Need Area: Money > Invest
"It is natural for man to indulge in the illusions of hope. We are apt to shut our eyes against a painful truth, and listen to the song of that siren till she transforms us into beasts... For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth, to know the worst, and to provide for it." - Patrick Henry

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[Quote No.34264] Need Area: Money > Invest
"I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody." - James Carville
former Bill Clinton Political Advisor
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[Quote No.34272] Need Area: Money > Invest
"That man [or woman] is prudent who neither hopes nor fears anything from the uncertain events of the future [because they have a plan to benefit from either eventuality]!" - Anatole France

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[Quote No.34295] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Short-term credit risk and liquidity risk measures: --LIBOR. LIBOR stands for London Interbank Offered Rate, and it is the interest rate at which banks can borrow short-term funds without posting collateral in the interbank market. LIBOR can be viewed as a signal of banks’ confidence in lending to peers, and thus their confidence in the financial sector overall. Market participants compare the level of LIBOR to the level of other lending rates such as the 3-month Treasury rate (the risk-free rate) in order to better isolate short-term credit risk and liquidity risk premiums. We call your attention to two such measures: -1. The TED spread. The TED spread is a measure of the market’s assessment of short term bank credit and liquidity risk. It is the difference between the rate at which large, money-center banks borrow and the rate at which the U.S. Treasury borrows; it is calculated by subtracting the 3-month U.S. Treasury Bill rate (the risk-free rate) from 3-month LIBOR. The spread can also be affected by sentiment: a 'flight to quality' in a risk-averse environment typically benefits U.S. Treasuries and reduces their rates while simultaneously raising LIBOR rates, thereby widening the TED spread. -2. The 3-month LIBOR-Overnight Index Swap (OIS) spread. OIS is an interest rate swap that entitles one party to pay a floating interest rate (and receive fixed) and another party to pay a fixed interest rate (and receive floating). The reference interest rate of the swap is the overnight lending rate for unsecured bank borrowings; in the U.S. market the rate is the overnight Fed Funds rate. The fixed interest payment is based on the expected average of overnight lending rates for the next 3 months; the floating interest payment is based on the actual overnight lending rates for the 3 months. No principal is exchanged in this swap, only the net difference in the interest at the end of the contract. The OIS rate, which is often cited, refers to the fixed rate of this swap. Market participants look at the difference between 3-month LIBOR and the 3-month OIS rate as a measure of short-term liquidity risk, which is also a reflection of credit risk. This spread is the premium that a borrower must pay to lock in a loan for the next 3-months versus having to roll its debt on a daily basis. This spread is a reflection of short-term credit risk since the default risk of a borrower increases with time (i.e., default risk is greater over 3 months than overnight)." - Goldman Sachs -
Quote from their Investment Strategy Group.
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[Quote No.34301] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The rule of thumb is that an inverted yield curve (short rates above long rates) indicates a recession in about a year, and yield curve inversions have preceded each of the last seven recessions (as defined by the US NBER). In particular, the yield curve inverted in August 2006, a bit more than a year before the current recession started in December 2007. There have been two notable false positives: an inversion in late 1966 and a very flat curve in late 1998. More generally, a flat curve indicates weak growth, and conversely, a steep curve indicates strong growth. [The shape of the yield curve is a good leading indicator most of the time, however...economist David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff questions whether this is true or not in the context of a post-bubble credit collapse and near zero central bank monetary policy: - 'After all, Japan’s yield curve never inverted because it couldn’t after the Bank of Japan brought short-term rates to near-zero levels and yet even with a positive slope to the JGB curve, Japan still managed to experience outright recessions beginning on April 1997, September 2000 and March 2008. In each case, Japan slipped into recession, and in the aftermath of a credit collapse, the signal was not whether the curve was inverted since it could not invert with policy rates at zero, but rather how the curve was shifting. In each case, it was flattening.']" - Joseph G. Haubrich and Kent Cherny
Joseph G. Haubrich and Kent Cherny, 'The Yield Curve', June 2010. Economic Trends. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. July 1, 2010. [David Rosenberg, 'Breakfast with Dave'. Gluskin Sheff. July 6, 2010.]
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[Quote No.34314] Need Area: Money > Invest
"In 1994 when I was starting out in stocks, I asked an old, grizzled — yet highly successful — commodities trader for his secret to surviving a bear market. 'Son,' he replied in a cigarette-hoarsed voice, 'it’s quite simple. ...a bear market is like dealing with a crazy wife. Don’t waste your time trying to rationalize with her, because it’ll never work. A crazy wife is a crazy wife. A bear market is a bear market. Accept it for what it is... and run!' [The same, of course, is true for a 'crazy' irrational husband!]" - Brian Hicks
'Wealth Daily', Wednesday, July 7th, 2010.
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[Quote No.34330] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[On the likelihood of a 'double-dip' recession in the U.S.:] I’d give it a higher probability than most, maybe 40% at some point over the next year. We have a weak recovery, weak labor market, weak consumer purchasing power [that is 70% of the U.S. economy] ...and a consumer that’s unable to rely on property and credit bubbles to support consumption anymore. So if you have a disappointing consumer and any kind of unexpected shock you could go down again. [...] Double-dips are not as infrequent as you might think... Weak recoveries leave you vulnerable to shocks." - Stephen Roach
Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. Quoted in an interview with the 'Wall Street Journal', 9th July, 2010.
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[Quote No.34333] Need Area: Money > Invest
"A More Accurate Commodity Price Indicator: A Financial Times blog post suggests the Baltic Dry Index is 'a rubbish indicator' of commodity prices – a harsh but somewhat accurate description of an index that’s not designed for that purpose. At most, the BDI is only an indirect indicator of commodity prices – it measures costs to charter ships that carry bulk commodities such as grain, ore and coal. Ship-chartering costs reflect cargo demand but as some FT blog commenters note, they also reflect vessel supply. Supply of bulk carriers has been rising faster than demand. Bulk ships on order total about 60 percent of the existing fleet, and London shipbroker Clarksons reports more than 167 bulkers with capacities of 14.4 million deadweight tons were ordered from shipyards during the last two months. Excess vessel supply is the main reason the Baltic Dry Index declined Thursday for its 30th straight day, falling to 1,940, down from 4,187 on May 25. The BDI has been volatile. A red-hot charter market, fueled by Chinese demand for commodities and a shortage of ships to carry them, drove the BDI to a peak of 11,793 in May 2008 before the recession caused it to plunge to 663 last December. Even the most speculative commodities usually don’t fluctuate as much as the BDI, a useful index for ship charters but only an indirect indicator of commodity prices. A direct indicator is The Journal of Commerce-Economical Cycle Research Institute Industrial Price Index. The IPI measures prices of 18 industrial materials such as aluminum, plywood, burlap, crude oil and even tallow, which is used in production of soaps, detergents and chemicals. Prices for these commodities, some of which aren’t publicly traded, are closely linked to cycles in global industrial growth, which helps drive the demand side of the Baltic Dry Index. In recent weeks, the JOC-ECRI IPI has been trending down, suggesting a slowing of the economy (see JOC's June 7 cover story, Economic Recovery: Built to Last?). The IPI declined for six straight weeks before edging up for two weeks in mid-June and dipping 0.9298 to 112.70404 for the week ending July 2. The decline was signaled last year by ECRI’s Long Leading Index of Industrial Growth, which provides an even earlier indication of economic trends. The LLIIG turned downward in January 2009, a year before IPI growth topped out." - Joseph Bonney
'Journal of Commerce', Jul 8, 2010.
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[Quote No.34349] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Generally Accepted Accounting Principles and accounting has become, rather than a way to see into a company's finances to determine its health, a way to disguise problems to fool investors and regulators and garner undeserved bonuses. The behaviour is unconscionable and should be repaid by enormous fines, disqualification from ever holding a position of financial trust again and stints in jail for the auditor, CEO, CFO, COO, Chairman of the Board, the audit committee and possibly the government regulator responsible for that company, like other fraudsters get. This article details some of the many tricks these fraudsters and government regulators think acceptable, breaking the spirit of truth in accounting, if not criminal laws as well, as we come into the earnings report season:] Fairy tale season is about to begin. Wall Street banks and brokerages are readying second-quarter numbers for mass digestion. They'll show healthy balance sheets, tolerable risk levels and have all the trappings of well-run companies. Don't believe a word of it. If the second quarter is anything like quarters of the past couple years, risk is up and capital is down. And what you'll see on earnings day bears little resemblance to the business being conducted between the bookends of the start and end of the latest quarter. After all, Wall Street is an industry built on prevaricating for clients - Enron Corp., Greece and Parmalat Spa to name a few - why would it come clean with its own financials? Late last week, Bank of America Corp. (BAC) became the latest big financial firm to cop to manipulating end-of-the-quarter earnings. In a letter to the Securities and Exchange Commission, B. of A. said it masked debt levels between 2007 and 2009 by making six trades designed to shine up the numbers on earnings day. You can bet that the Charlotte, N.C.-based bank isn't the only one using the David Blaine accounting method. In April, the The Wall Street Journal examined data from the Federal Reserve bank of New York and found 18 banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), Morgan Stanley(MS) and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.(JPM) masked debt levels in the five quarters ending in March. The Journal found the banks 'understated the debt levels used to fund securities trades by lowering them an average of 42% at the end of each of the past five quarterly periods, the data showed. The banks, which publicly release debt data each quarter, then boosted the debt levels in the middle of successive quarters.' ...Of course, like many Wall Street practices in the era of deregulation, all of the trades were perfectly legal, just as the 'repo' accounting used by Lehman Brothers to hide its leverage exposure was legal - at least in the opinion of the U.K. attorneys they could get to approve the deals. ...Lehman was hardly alone. Before, during and after the financial crisis, banks used countless accounting tricks, including off-balance sheet entities called special purpose vehicles, short-term repurchase agreements, securities that banks label 'available for sale,' and all varieties of 'intent-based accounting.' You would think this kind of window dressing would raise the ire of analysts whose rosy analysis of Wall Street firms including American International Group Inc. (AIG) Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch were made to look foolish by opaque and misleading balance sheets. Think again. Most analysts still read the suspect financial data they're handed every three months and take it as gospel. Take a look at the usual suspects. Since the start of the year, analysts have issued six ratings upgrades to Citigroup, six to Goldman, four to Morgan Stanley and nine to Bank of America, according to FactSet. Combined, analysts have only issued five downgrades. Even some of the best analysts, including Brad Hintz at Bernstein Research, Meredith Whitney, who runs her own research company and Glenn Schorr at Deutsche Bank AG seem reluctant to mention the fact that banks are tweaking the numbers. And why should they? Admitting that a bank has cut risk for earnings day undermines their 'analysis.'Less than a decade ago, a crusading attorney general upended Wall Street with a series of investigations and settlements concerning practices that the industry and public took for granted: late trading of mutual funds, bid-rigging in the insurance market and research conflicts. Regardless of Eliot Spitzer's personal failings and his lasting impact as a reformer, at least he had the gumption to challenge practices on the grounds of common sense and evenhandedness. Unfortunately, no one seems to have taken up the mantle of championing fairness in the markets. Even after the financial crisis, financial firms still take short cuts behind the scenes, the analysts keep playing it straight, investors continue to follow the analysts and credit ratings agencies. Not only does the emperor have no clothes, no one in the kingdom cares. Maybe it's the obfuscation: like the way a chief financial officer authoritatively patronizes investors on the earnings call. Or perhaps it's the way banks such as Goldman and Morgan Stanley vehemently deny they use 'repo' transactions to make the books look better at the end of the quarter but are hazy when asked about other transactions. Maybe it doesn't matter anyway. All of this stuff, we're told, is legal. And if the SEC does make a move, it's only going to require more disclosure of mid-quarter activities. Maybe lie is too strong a word for the game big finance plays at the end of the quarter. It is, after all, trickery played inside the lines. But here's something you should refuse to call it: the truth." - David Weidner
Financial journalist who covers Wall Street for MarketWatch. Published July 13, 2010.
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[Quote No.34350] Need Area: Money > Invest
"You can be free. You can live and work anywhere in the world. You can be independent from routine and not answer to anybody... [you just have to save some money and learn how to have fun while investing well!]" - Dr. Alexander Elder
Originally a psychiatrist who became interested in investing and eventually became a highly successful share trader, author and trading educator. Quote from his highly acclaimed, best-selling book, 'Trading for a Living'.
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[Quote No.34352] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The game of [share trading] speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor." - Jesse Livermore
Famous share trader from the early 20th century.
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[Quote No.34356] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The critical investment factor is determining the intrinsic value of a business and paying a fair or bargain price." - Warren E. Buffett
Highly successful share investor and one of the richest men in the world.
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[Quote No.34357] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[In investing] Time makes more converts than reason." - Thomas Paine
From his book, 'Common Sense', published 1776.
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[Quote No.34365] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Just as there is a statistically significant increase in shares in an election year, called 'The Presidential Cycle', there is growing evidence and understanding for similar in real estate as this article and research proves:] If history is any guide, Australian house prices will perform worse in the year after the expected upcoming election than the year before. Over the past four decades, Melbourne home prices have risen by 1.21 per cent a quarter in the year before a federal election, compared to 0.84 per cent a quarter in the year after, according to research from RMIT, suggesting a link between government policies, taxes and infrastructure building promises and the growth of house prices. The paper, by RMIT property investment professors David Higgins and Wejendra Reddy, finds an even larger gap at the state level, with a 2.3 per cent rise in the year before a Victorian state election, compared to a 0.6 per cent increase in the year after. 'Melbourne house prices performance is significantly better the year before an election compared to one year post election,' said RMIT professor David Higgins. With speculation swirling that the Gillard government will call an election by August, the cycle outlined in the paper, which uses Melbourne as a representative state, is poised to repeat itself. National city home prices have risen 12.1 per cent in the year to May to a median price of $468,000, according to RPData-Rismark. Looking ahead, most analysts expect home prices to moderate in coming months, as auction clearance rates and loan demand falter. However, the willingness by federal and state governments to provide home buyers grants, negative gearing taxation, and incentives for improvements on homes, while limiting the land available for construction, have had the effect of boosting home prices, professor Higgins said. 'These pre-emptive policies by governments to support (or) stabilise house prices on the short-term could reverberate at a latter stage to inflated house prices.' Professor Higgins said it poses the larger question about whether the government is creating an artificial asset bubble long-term by not allowing the market to adjust to demand. The Housing Industry Association currently estimates a 200,000 house shortfall in Australia, expected to worsen as the pace of building approvals and loan borrowing falters. Property analysts have long pointed to the Australia's shortage of affordable homes in capital cities as a key driver of house prices. Moody's Analytic's Matt Robinson, commenting on the report's conclusions, said that typically social and community infrastructure investment is announced in the lead-up to elections making certain suburbs more desirable, which can have an effect on overall house prices. 'Transport links, road upgrades, hospitals, libraries, all influence the attractiveness of a suburb, and hence promises regarding these amenities will put upward pressure on certain suburb prices.' The RMIT report, entitled, 'The Impact of the Political Cycle on House Prices: The Australian Experience' suggested the future research on house price movement incorporate more data from the political cycle in addition to traditional economic property cycles." - Chris Zappone
Published on the Australian real estate website, Domain.com, July 7, 2010.
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[Quote No.34368] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Optimism may well play a key role in human evolution and survival, but in matters of the narrower discipline of investment it can be a grave threat to the retention of wealth. Which is not to say that pessimism is preferable, only that the quest for realism – or objectivity – is likely to be the most rewarding route towards capital preservation and growth. This is a hard orientation for most investors, given that the financial services industry, and notably the ethical swamp that is the brokerage business, has an enduring bias in favour of good cheer. Bad news rarely sells." - Tim Price
Director of Investment, PFP Wealth Management. Published in FNArena.com, 19th July 2010.
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[Quote No.34370] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Mathematics is ordinarily considered as producing precise and dependable results; but in the stock market the more elaborate and abstruse the mathematics, the more uncertain and speculative are the conclusions we draw there from. [To guard against this he recommends insisting on a significant margin of safety between the long-term value calculated and the price paid.] " - Benjamin Graham
Highly successful share investor, who is commonly considered the 'Father' of value investing and security analysis.
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[Quote No.34371] Need Area: Money > Invest
"A loss never bothers me after I take it. I [try to understand any mistake made and improve my trading system, while realising no system produces 100% winners, and then] forget it. But being wrong - not taking the loss [quickly, before it gets worse] - that is what does damage to the pocketbook and to the soul." - Jesse Livermore
Famous share trader.
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[Quote No.34372] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The most important thing to do when you find yourself in a hole is to stop digging." - Warren Buffett
Famous value share investor and one of the richest men in the world.
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[Quote No.34378] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The key to being a great chess player is to think ahead. True grandmasters think ahead not by just one or two steps, but a full game. The key to winning is determining the most likely moves of your opponent, among what seem at first glance to be hundreds of possibilities. The same can be said of finance. Knowing what to expect from key world players is critical to investing." - John Mauldin
Editor, Outside the Box
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[Quote No.34380] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The idea with technical investing is to see just a little ahead and take precautions and thereby enjoy the roller coaster ride, without excessive irrational fear." - Seymour@imagi-natives.com

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[Quote No.34381] Need Area: Money > Invest
"As Ben Graham said Mr. Market can be irrational. One day he is too optimistic, while the next he is too pessimistic. But he has 'tells'. For those who aren't poker players, a 'tell' is an unconscious action by a player that tips off the other players to his intentions. Once you know a player's 'tell,' you'll know in advance what he's going to do - and you can clean him out this way. Technical indicators can be used to read and profit from these 'tells'. When combined with fundamental analysis, they can make you a very successful trading investor. " - Seymour@imagi-natives.com

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[Quote No.34416] Need Area: Money > Invest
"No [ordinary woman or] man is so rich as to say, 'I have enough!' [But some wise people are!]" - Latin Proverb

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[Quote No.34417] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Money doesn't sleep." - Anonymous

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[Quote No.34419] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Manage the downside; the upside will take care of itself." - Donald Trump
Highly successful real estate investor
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[Quote No.34420] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Share investors and traders are in the business of developing and then following an investing or trading system they have proven and therefore can believe in, through the inevitable ups and downs of any market. They know that achieving more profits than losses is the bi-product of their successful system and therefore that consistently and persistently following their system is critical regardless of how fearful, greedy or lazy they might feel at the time." - Anon

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[Quote No.34423] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Whoever undertakes to set himself up as a judge of Truth and Knowledge [especially about economics and share prices] is shipwrecked by the laughter of the gods." - Albert Einstein
Nobel Prize winning 20th century physicist.
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[Quote No.34427] Need Area: Money > Invest
"I base my opinions on the action of the stock market. When the stock market changes its position, I change mine. When the facts change, I change." - Richard Russell
Editor of the technical investment newletter, the Dow Theory Letters.
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[Quote No.34431] Need Area: Money > Invest
"...a shortage of aggregate demand... that’s what defines deflation [falling prices]." - George Magnus
Senior Economic Advisor, UBS Investment Bank.
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[Quote No.34442] Need Area: Money > Invest
"When we are not sure, we are alive." - Graham Greene

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[Quote No.34448] Need Area: Money > Invest
"A good scare is worth more than good advice!" - Horace

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[Quote No.34462] Need Area: Money > Invest
"You could afford your house without the government if it weren't for the government." - Rush Limbaugh

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[Quote No.34470] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The pen is mightier than the sword, but no match for the accountant." - Jonathan Glancey

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[Quote No.34484] Need Area: Money > Invest
"There are no permanent changes because change itself is permanent. It behooves the industrialist to research and the investor to be vigilant." - Ralph L. Woods

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[Quote No.34486] Need Area: Money > Invest
"It is important not to ignore forecasts that are uncongenial." - Jib Fowles

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[Quote No.34496] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Business is a combination of war and sport!" - Andre Maurois

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[Quote No.34521] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Amateurs hope, professionals work." - Garson Kanin

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[Quote No.34528] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Our analysis was based on newly-compiled data on forty-four countries spanning about two hundred years. This amounts to 3,700 annual observations and covers a wide range of political systems, institutions, exchange rate arrangements, and historic circumstances. The main findings of that study are: --1-First, the relationship between government debt and real GDP growth is weak for debt/GDP ratios below 90% of GDP.1 Above the threshold of 90%, median growth rates fall by 1%, and average growth falls considerably more. The threshold for public debt is similar in advanced and emerging economies and applies for both the post World War II period and as far back as the data permit (often well into the 1800s). --2-Second, emerging markets face lower thresholds for total external debt (public and private) – which is usually denominated in a foreign currency. When total external debt reaches 60% of GDP, annual growth declines about 2%; for higher levels, growth rates are roughly cut in half. --3-Third, there is no apparent contemporaneous link between inflation and public debt levels for the advanced countries as a group (some countries, such as the US, have experienced higher inflation when debt/GDP is high). The story is entirely different for emerging markets, where inflation rises sharply as debt increases." - Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff
'Debt and growth revisited', published 11 August 2010. The complete results of the study that drew the above conclusins can be found in their book, 'This Time is Different: Eight Hundred Centuries of Financial Folly', published in 2009. Carmen M. Reinhart went on to jointly write a report for the International Monetary Foundation (IMF) a report about how countries in this much debt can pay it down. It is in this quote collection but as it is discussed, along with many quotes from the actual document, by another person, use the author's name, Daniel Amerman, and the title 'Financial Repression: A Sheep Shearing Instruction Manual' to search for it.
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[Quote No.34550] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[In volatile markets remember...] While the mind is in doubt it is driven this way and that by a slight impulse." - Terence

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[Quote No.34596] Need Area: Money > Invest
"No one wants advice, only corroboration." - John Steinbeck

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[Quote No.34597] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The notion that the equity market predicts anything has always struck me as ludicrous. In the 25 years I have been following the markets it seems clear to me that the equity market reacts to events rather than pre-empting them. We know from the Japanese Ice Age and indeed from the US 1930s experience, that in a post-bubble world the equity market merely follows the economic cycle [so investors should always pay extremely close attention to the leading and coincident economic indicators to understand where the economy is headed]. " - Albert Edwards
Societe Generale global strategist
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[Quote No.34598] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Keeping track of leading and coincident economic indicators is important to successful share investing as this article details:] The economics fraternity suffered a humiliating setback last week. After finally deciding to take the plunge and slash their forecasts for US economic growth, economists were hit with a slew of good US economic figures that suggest the economy is actually much more robust than they’d estimated. Not easily silenced, economists were quick to point out the flaws in the figures showing a surprise jump in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index, and the better-than-expected August jobs report. In particular, they noted that the comprehensive U6 measure of unemployment, which includes discouraged workers along with the unemployed, shows the country’s unemployment rate now stands at 16.7 per cent, up from 16.5 per cent in July. But investors couldn’t have cared less. Deciding that all those dire warnings of a double-dip recession were nothing but an over-reaction, they joined in a rally that saw shares soar by more than 5 per cent in the early days of September. The question now is whether investors are living on false hope, clutching at straws of evidence that the US economy is healthy? John Hussman of Hussman Funds warns that investors are facing a particularly treacherous period, as they try to decide whether the drop in the economic indicators is really heralding an economic slowdown. 'The elevated focus of investors on small bits of news is palpable, and can be observed in the recent series of days where more than 90 per cent of stocks have been either up or down. These strong responses to day-to-day news are somewhat understandable, because a further economic downturn is not well-priced into the market, and would most likely prompt a whole host of policy dilemmas. News that appears to reduce that risk is met with relief and short-covering, while news that validates economic concerns causes a spike in risk aversion,' he writes. Hussman argues there is a 'recognition window' when the economic activity starts to deviate from the upward trend that is priced into the market, and it dawns on investors that an economic downturn is imminent. This is one of the riskiest periods for stocks, and one of the most propitious times for Treasury bonds [with their prices rising and yields falling often producing a negative yield curve]. The trouble is that economic figures don’t all turn at once in a perfect formation. Hussman points out there is a lag of between 13 to 26 weeks between when the 'leading' economic indicators, start to point to a downturn in the economy, and when the 'coincident' economic data actually shows that the economy has in fact deteriorated. 'Once leading indicators have clearly deteriorated, it takes a while for coincident indicators to follow. During the interim, small positive surprises in coincident indicators are unreliable... From this perspective, my sense is that investors have abandoned the concern about further economic weakness prematurely.' Hussman says that one leading indicator, the ECRI Weekly Leading Index tends to precede movements in the coincident ISM Purchasing Managers Index, by about 13 weeks. Another leading indicator, the Philadelphia Fed Index, also tends to lead the Purchasing Managers Index, but only by a month on average. What’s more, the timing can be erratic. For instance, in 1974, it took seven months before the Purchasing Managers Index finally followed the downward track set by the leading indicators – the ECRI and the Philly Fed Index. 'By then, the S&P 500 had cratered to one of the worst bear market lows of the post-war period,' he says. Similarly, in early 2008, the leading indicators – the ECRI and Philly Fed Index – gave a timely warning that the US economy was headed for trouble, but the ISM data held up several months longer than usual before it finally plunged. 'In the intervening period, the S&P 500 lost 20 per cent.' Hussman has a sober warning for those investors currently rejoicing that the US economic outlook is nowhere near as bad as the killjoy economists have been saying. 'Suffice it to say that it is premature to interpret last week's somewhat benign data as an 'all clear' signal for the economy. Yes, this time may be different, and we may somehow skirt evidence that has historically been reliable, but we don't have a clear logical justification based in other data to support a rosy view.' " - Karen Maley
'Business Spectator', 7 Sep 2010.
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