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  Quotations - Invest  
[Quote No.35288] Need Area: Money > Invest
"As the famous early 20th century Wall Street banker J.P. Morgan said 'The markets will fluctuate'. This can be seen on the price charts but also specifically on the VIX - Volatility Index [sometimes called the market's fear indicator]. And because the market should fluctuate as buyers buy and others sell, if it doesn't fluctuate much then there may be herd behaviour. When it fluctuates a lot there is a battle between bulls and bears. There has developed the following saying to remember what to ponder at these times...When the VIX is low prepare to go; but when the VIX is high prepare to buy." - Seymour@imagi-natives.com

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[Quote No.35289] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Many companies use reverse stock splits so their stock will trade at higher levels. Another financial giant, AIG, enacted a 1 for 20 reverse stock split which helped get its shares from well under $5 to current levels [2011] around $36. There are several reasons why a company will enact a reverse split: 1- As Michael Holland, chairman of money manager Holland & Co., said in reference to Citigroup's under $5 share price: 'When the stock's selling at that low a price, there's just an air of something that's not quite as healthy as it should be [especially comparing it to a much higher price from some years before. Often a company with spare money would do a buy back to raise the price but this isn't the case with cashstrapped Citigroup].' 2- Some funds cannot or will not buy stocks that trade for less than $5 per share for various reasons. One reason is that they are considered to be 'penny stocks' (even though they trade for over $1) and therefore are more speculative. Some brokerages have higher margin requirements for shares trading under $5. 3- A low share price (under $5) looks weak and can hurt the image of a company, and its ability to recruit new employees, customers, vendors and of course, investors. 4- Reducing the number of shares outstanding will often reduce the number of small shareholders. This can often save a company money in printing and the cost of mailing annual reports and proxy materials. I am not a big fan of reverse splits as they often cause the share price to drop when they are announced, but sometimes they do serve a purpose and can be beneficial in the long run." - Rougemont
seekingalpha.com, March 25, 2011.
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[Quote No.35294] Need Area: Money > Invest
"I believe the very best money is made at the market turns." - Paul Tudor Jones
Famous investor.
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[Quote No.35298] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Greatness [of profit] be nothing unless it be lasting." - Napoleon Bonaparte

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[Quote No.35303] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market the game is to buy and hold until you believe the bull market is near its end." - Jesse L. Livermore
Famous share trader
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[Quote No.35304] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The speculator’s deadly enemies are: Ignorance, greed, fear and hope. All the statue books in the world and all the rule books on all the Exchanges of the earth cannot eliminate these from the human animal." - Jesse L. Livermore
Famous US share trader.
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[Quote No.35305] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Wall Street [share investing] never changes, the pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but Wall Street [share investing] never changes, because human nature [ignorance, hope, greed, fear] never changes. " - Jesse L. Livermore
Famous US share trader
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[Quote No.35315] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[A share market is about different opinions. It is not uncommon for people to defend their own opinions and try to get others to share them. This is usually not worth the effort.] I never make the mistake to argue with people for whose opinions I have no respect. [Live and let live... Think and let think]" - Edward Gibbon
(1737-1794) English historian
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[Quote No.35325] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The CPI calculations [used by the US Federal Reserve] have been changed so much over the last 30 years that most retail traders may not even know what it measures anymore. [Have CPI changes led to understated inflation? The Current CPI method gives 2011 CPI as 1.5%, Pre-1990 CPI method gives 2011 CPI as 4.8%, Pre-1983 CPI method gives 2011 CPI as 8.9%] One can only wonder why such grand differences exist. The largest component of the CPI is housing, right? The biggest change in the CPI was made in 1983. During this time, CPI methods changed and stopped using housing prices as the main component, switching instead to the subtle 'owners equivalent rent'. This new method is described as 'the amount of rent that could be paid to substitute a currently owned house for an equivalent rental property'. [The composition of the CPI: CPI Category and % of CPI figure: Housing 42%, Transport 17%, Food and Beverage 15%, Medical Care 7%, Recreation 6%, Education and Communication 6%, Apparel 4%, other goods and services 3%] " - The Intermarket Edge
seekingalpha.com, 30th March, 2011.
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[Quote No.35331] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[If you needed more proof for the Austrian Economics belief that keeping interest rates too low -that is below the Taylor Rule for setting cash interest rates, is good short-term but catastrophic long-term then the following quote from an authority should suffice.] In the spring of 2003 there was worldwide concern that the U.S. economy was falling into a 'Japanese-like' malaise; the recovery was stalling, deflation was likely to occur and unemployment was too high. This was the prevailing view despite the fact that the U.S. economy was growing at a 3.2 percent annual rate and the global economy's average growth was nearly 3.6 percent. In addition, the fed funds policy rate was 1¼ percent...... in June 2003 it was lowered further to 1 percent and was left at that rate for nearly a year, as insurance. Following this action, the United States and the world began an extended credit expansion and housing boom...... The long-term consequences of that policy are now well known [the 207-9 Great Financial Crisis, the worse financial crisis since the Great Depression]. " - Thomas Hoenig
Federal Reserve Bank member, March, 2011.
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[Quote No.35337] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Some people believe] It is a far, far better thing to have a firm anchor in nonsense [for example, some economic theories as well as some technical chart investing methodologies] than to put on the troubled seas of thought." - John Kenneth Galbraith
Famous economist
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[Quote No.35357] Need Area: Money > Invest
"...to understand values is to understand the meaning of the market." - Charles Dow
Originator of the Dow Jones Index.
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[Quote No.35396] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Sometimes one pays most for the things one gets for nothing. [For example free investment advice!]" - Albert Einstein

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[Quote No.35510] Need Area: Money > Invest
"I am neither an optimist nor pessimist, but a possibilist." - Max Lerner

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[Quote No.35516] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Do not judge, and you will never be mistaken. [But since all investing is judging you will occationally be wrong!]" - Jean Jacques Rousseau

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[Quote No.35541] Need Area: Money > Invest
"For the cautious, patient, 'get-rich-slowly' investor, debt is a four-letter word. While it increases profits, it also increases losses and therefore they believe correctly that it is too dangerous to use extensively, even with tax deductibility and strong sustainable income coverage from something else, like a highly paid job." - Seymour@imagi-natives.com

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[Quote No.35546] Need Area: Money > Invest
"When men speak of the future [make predictions], the Gods laugh." - Chinese Proverb

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[Quote No.35556] Need Area: Money > Invest
"...no country with Debt/GDP ratio of more than 150% has ever avoided a [sovereign bond] default... " - Citibank
report on Greece in April, 2011.
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[Quote No.35570] Need Area: Money > Invest
"...the way that a housing bubble burst begins is by an increasing overhang of unsold properties and sellers being reluctant to drop their prices. If you look at the American data in about 2006 to about 2007, their prices went sideways too as that resistance was held, but the overwhelming growth in the stock of unsold properties and the drop-off of demand ultimately meant that people simply had to drop their prices if they had to sell, and then you saw the cascade in prices taking place over there... The fact that it's [real estate prices and rental yield at present 4.9%] holding up slightly would be helping some of them [real estate investors] hang there, but most of them, as we know, are making negative returns on their rental income and hoping for a capital gain, and if they're staring at a capital loss which is growing over time then that's something which would push them from the buy side of the market to the sell side." - Steve Keen
Associate Professor from the University of Western Sydney, Australia. Quoted on Fri Apr 29, 2011.
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[Quote No.35572] Need Area: Money > Invest
"An overleveraged/overindebted investor, businessperson or average individual is, as they say, 'a bug in search of a windshield'!" - Seymour@imagi-natives.com

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[Quote No.35575] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Inaction may be the biggest form of action." - Jerry Brown

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[Quote No.35593] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The great enemy of the truth [about the economy and the likely long-term direction of the stock market] is very often not the lie — deliberate, contrived and dishonest — but the myth — persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic [that this time is different and the problems are nothing to be concerned about]." - John F. Kennedy
U.S. President
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[Quote No.35603] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[When considering central bank intervention in a market bust it is worth considering the following:] Forest fires are judged to be nasty, especially when one's own house or life is threatened, or when grave harm is being done to tourist attractions. The popular conviction that fires are an unqualified evil reached its zenith after a third of Yellowstone Park in the US was destroyed by fire in 1988. Nevertheless, conventional wisdom among forest managers remains that it is best to let natural forest fires burn themselves out, unless particularly dangerous conditions apply. Burning appears to be part of a natural process of forest rejuvenation. Moreover, intermittent fires burn away the undergrowth that might accumulate and make any eventual fire uncontrollable .......Perhaps modern macroeconomists could learn from the forest managers." - William White
former Bank of International Settlements [BIS] chief economist.
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[Quote No.35604] Need Area: Money > Invest
"When looking at investor sentiment it is useful to watch the behaviour of defensive sectors of a share market [which have stable incomes rather than discretionary, cyclical incomes - like consumer staples and health care] and defensive currencies [like the US dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc]. When these sectors rise [along with the price of bonds while the yield therefore falls] investors are getting worried and when they fall they are getting more confident [especially if cyclical stocks and risk currencies like the Aussie dollar AUD which is related to industrial commodities and Dr. Copper rise]. Gold is a special metal that usually rises when fiat currency debasement, fear and inflation threatens." - Seymour@imagi-natives.com

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[Quote No.35605] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The first of my general session presentations was titled 'The coming regime change in currencies' and I shared my thoughts on the fragile status of the US$ as the globe's reserve currency. With all of the debt and deficits which we have accumulated, the reserve status of the US$ is definitely in danger. One of the obvious alternatives to the US$ is the Chinese Renminbi. The Chinese economy continues to grow, and is now predicted to overtake the US and become the globes largest economy within the next 5 years. The Chinese automobile market is now the largest, and their growing middle class now has as many members as the entire population of the US. But in the short term I don't see how the Chinese currency can replace the dollar as the reserve currency, as the Chinese financial system is still nascent. But Chuck has mentioned several times, China is trying to gain a wider acceptance of the Renminbi in international trade. They have arranged swap agreements with some of their largest trading partners, avoiding the use of US$. They have also begun to allow the trading of fixed income securities denominated in Renminbi on the Hong Kong markets. These bonds are called 'Dim Sum' and have been rallying dramatically as investors push their prices higher. All of these efforts by the Chinese government to gain a wider acceptance of the Renminbi seem to be paying off. A report released by HSBC overnight suggested the Renminbi will overtake the British pound this year to become the world's third most popular trade-settlement currency. HSBC conducted a survey of small and medium sized trading companies and more respondents chose the Chinese renminbi as their primary currency than selected the pound for the first time since the survey began. The US$ and Euro are still the two top currencies used for international trade, but the Chinese currency is now number three. The emerging markets are driving much of the growth of the use of the Renminbi, and with good growth expectations continuing in these markets, the acceptance of the Chinese renminbi will undoubtedly grow. The next step China needs to take is to ease back on their control of the Renminbi. Again, I don't think this is going to be a quick decision, but will take some time. China will continue their 'slow and steady' release of the renminbi, but I do think that over time the renminbi will become free floating. Once this happens, the renminbi will be in a place to become the next global reserve currency. Until then, I think we will see a growing dependence on Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) which were created by the IMF in 1969 during Bretton Woods. SDRs are currently a basket of 4 different currencies (USD, EUR, GBP and JPY) but the basket is re-evaluated every 5 years and the Chinese Renminbi will undoubtedly be added eventually. I believe the SDRs are what will become the globes next reserve currency, decreasing the importance of the US$ on global trade [Google 'US Dollar hegemony' and 'petrodollar']. This is just another nail in the coffin of the US$, and we will continue to see its value slide in the coming years." - Chris Gaffney
CFA, Vice President, EverBank World Markets. Quote from the currency newsletter, 'A Pfennig for Your Thoughts', published 4th May 2011.
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[Quote No.35606] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[One option open to countries with major debt problems is to sell their assets, including any gold reserves that are not needed as collateral for foreign loans, inflation hedges or to back their currency, especially if their currency is not floated, that it is pegged or ranged.] Senior German Lawmakers Urge Portuguese Gold Sale: Another sign of the increased appreciation of gold as an important asset came from Germany today where Angela Merkel's budget speaker and his opposition counterpart have urged Portugal to consider selling their gold. Norbert Barthle, Germany's governing coalition budget speaker and his counterpart Carsten Schneider from the Social Democrats, the biggest opposition party, urged Portugal to consider selling some of its gold reserves to ease its debt problems. They called for a review of Portugal's request for financial aid to include gold and other potential asset sales. The German lawmakers did not specify who should buy the gold from the Portuguese central bank but given the challenges facing Germany and the Eurozone, it is likely that the Bundesbank and the ECB would be willing buyers - if the gold is not already encumbered due to Portugal's membership of the Eurozone. Interestingly, there was an article in the Times of London on Monday suggesting that the Portuguese gold reserves (worth some $20.7 billion at today's prices) be used to fund their bailout. Meanwhile creditor nations' central banks continue to accumulate gold reserves as seen with the breaking news from the Financial Times that the central bank of Mexico has been diversifying their currency reserves (largely in dollars) into gold with the purchase of 100 tonnes of gold bullion in February and March. Debtor nations with large gold reserves may be forced to [first put up the gold reserves as collateral for their loans and then potentially] sell gold reserves to creditor nations in the coming years as has been the pattern throughout history." - Mark O'Byrne
Published in the 'International Business Times', May 4, 2011.
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[Quote No.35607] Need Area: Money > Invest
"I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms." - Paul Tudor Jones
Famously successful hedge fund manager.
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[Quote No.35627] Need Area: Money > Invest
"An ounce of patience is worth a pound of brains!" - Dutch Proverb

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[Quote No.35636] Need Area: Money > Invest
"It's not wise to violate rules until you know how to observe them!" - T. S. Eliot

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[Quote No.35647] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Money without brains is always dangerous." - Napoleon Hill

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[Quote No.35649] Need Area: Money > Invest
"It's not about being right or wrong, rather, it's about how much money you make when you’re right and how much you don’t lose when you’re wrong." - George Soros

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[Quote No.35655] Need Area: Money > Invest
"After more than a quarter-century as a professional economist, I have a confession to make: There is a lot I don’t know about the economy. Indeed, the area of economics where I have devoted most of my energy and attention — the ups and downs of the business cycle — is where I find myself most often confronting important questions without obvious answers. Now, if you follow economic commentary in the newspapers or the blogosphere, you have probably not run into many humble economists. By its nature, punditry craves attention, which is easier to attract with certainties than with equivocation. But that certitude reflects bravado more often than true knowledge." - N. Gregory Mankiw
Professor of economics at Harvard. Published in the New York Times, May 7, 2011.
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[Quote No.35657] Need Area: Money > Invest
"If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you must do things differently from the crowd." - Sir John Templeton

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[Quote No.35670] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Are you bovine [bullish], ursine [bearish], ovine [sheepish] or porcine [piggish]?" - Anon

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[Quote No.35673] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[This article touches on some key indicators for real estate investors. In Australia] Glut fails to lift sales: The selling spree continues, despite a distinct lack of demand. Melbourne’s property market is facing a massive supply glut as vendors continue to put homes up for sale despite a sharp drop-off in buyer demand. Shrugging off repeated signs that conditions have noticeably weakened, vendors are pushing stock levels to near-record levels in both the auction and private sale markets. The number of properties listed for sale last month in Victoria soared 57 per cent compared to the same time in 2010, according to analysts RP Data. There are now about 53,300 properties up for sale around the state, 41 per cent more than last year. In the city’s auction market, about 2300 properties are set to go under the hammer over the next three weekends, the second-highest supply level recorded for this time of year since 2003. And, if recent history is any indication of future performance, there will be trouble ahead for some of those vendors. Last week, the clearance rate fell to 56 per cent, close to the worst sales performance witnessed since the 2008 global financial crisis, despite a low number of auctions being staged. (A 'balanced' market is said to return a clearance rate of 65 per cent to 75 per cent). Yesterday’s market proved lacklustre as well, with the clearance rate coming in at 60 per cent for the 546 auction results reported, according to the Real Estate Institute of Victoria. But the outcome of another 108 scheduled auctions is still unknown. The weakening conditions are beginning to spook industry players, who are now increasingly arguing that the declining clearance rate doesn’t accurately reflect what’s actually going on at the coalface. 'Thousands of vendors are still successfully selling, it’s just taking a bit longer, buyers are more cautious and are seeing the value of driving a harder bargain right now,' REIV spokesman Robert Larocca said. But industry data also points to a growing backlog of unsold properties. The average time a property spent on the private sale market blew out to 88 days in March, up from 76 days in February and 60 days in December 2010, according to Australian Property Monitors. REIV figures also suggest that a significant number of properties that fail to sell at auction aren’t being quickly turned over in the private sale market, with weekly transaction volumes registering no big increase, despite the rising number of unsuccessful auctions. These are troubling signs for vendors, but for some buyers they will be a green light. 'There’s a growing sense of cautiousness with buyers as each week goes on,' said Michael Ramsay, of Michael Ramsay Property. 'They’re really pondering how much they should pay for a house in this market.'" - Chris Vedelago
Posted on Domain.com.au 10 May 2011.
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[Quote No.35679] Need Area: Money > Invest
"An oil shock [price rise] is like a tax on business and a tax on consumers... It will usually depress consumer demand quite quickly as gasoline prices rise; it will usually depress GDP growth, generally a little later; and it will always unsettle business confidence. [Generally the share market falls rapidly and severely if it senses a serious oil crisis. In fact there have been few recessions not preceeded by a strong rise in the price of oil. That usually puts the final nail in the coffin of a growing economy.]" - Jeremy Grantham
He co-founded funds manager GMO, which has $107 billion in assets under management in 2011.
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[Quote No.35688] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Rents [can] underpin property values: ...falling [real estate] prices will only strengthen already robust [rental] yields. For would-be home owners, high rents mean the gap between paying rent and servicing a mortgage narrows [assuming mortgage interest rates don't continue rising and real estate prices don't continue falling and rental vacancy rates don't increase driving rents down] and encourages them to make the jump into home ownership." - Domain.com.au
Posted on Domain.com.au 11 May 2011
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[Quote No.35689] Need Area: Money > Invest
"There is no group more subjective than conventional analysts who look at the same 'fundamental' news event -- a war, the level of interest rates, the P/E ratio, GDP reports, the President’s economic policy, the Fed’s monetary policy, you name it -- and come up with countless opposing conclusions. [After all this opposite thinking is the basis of a free market...for every buyer, thinking the price will rise, there must be a seller, thinking the price will fall!]" - Robert Prechter
Elliott Wave International president.
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[Quote No.35696] Need Area: Money > Invest
"During bullish phases the market tends to ignore allegedly bearish fundamental reports [often calling this 'climbing the wall of worry'], while seizing on bullish ones. The opposite is true during bearish phases." - Pater Tenebrarum

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[Quote No.35700] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Just before consumers [and investors] stop doing something [i.e. buying or selling], they do it with a vengeance." - Faith Popcorn

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[Quote No.35701] Need Area: Money > Invest
"One of the most important factors driving currency trends is interest rate differentials, and more importantly real interest rate differentials. There is a difference. While nominal interest rates catch people's attention, real interest rates (the nominal rate less the inflation rate) is what is most important. For example, you may be able to get a 25% interest rate on deposits in 'country X', but inflation in 'country X' is running at 30% so the real rate of return in the local currency is NEGATIVE. This is why we encourage investors to not just look at the nominal interest rates being paid, but at the underlying economic fundamentals, and especially the inflation rate expectations. This is why we like those countries with central banks who are hawkish on inflation. When the central bank is raising rates to combat inflation, real rates will remain positive. But if the central bank is 'behind' inflation and raising rates after inflation has already started heating up, real rates will go negative, and the currency will suffer. " - Chris Gaffney
CFA, Vice President, EverBank World Markets.
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[Quote No.35702] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[The major reserve currency, the US] dollar strength reflects a general move in many markets away from so-called 'risk assets' [like emerging and commodity countries] into safer places – out of equities, out of commodities, into high-quality government bonds, into USD." - Lawrence Morgan
Currency strategist
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[Quote No.35703] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The price movement of copper is often an indication of the future of the global economy because copper is such an important industrial metal, used in so many electrical products. For this reason , the 'red metal' has been called 'Dr. Copper' for its apparent economics doctorate. Therefore Copper is an important indicator to watch for global economic danger and opportunity - 'coppertunity'. " - Seymour@imagi-natives.com

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[Quote No.35706] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Value investors aren’t renowned for timing the very lows for their share purchases, preferring to start accumulating as soon as they become 'cheap', not knowing if they'll get cheaper - often called 'catching a falling knife' - or go straight back up.] I’ve always suffered from premature accumulation." - Bruce Berkowitz
Famous US investor
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[Quote No.35707] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Nowhere does it say that investors should strive to make every last dollar of potential profit [by buying at the very bottom and selling at the very top]; consideration of risk must never take a backseat to return." - Seth Klarman
Famous and very successful value share investor. Quote from his 2008 letter.
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[Quote No.35710] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Here is another article about US dollar hegemony and how it has effected the economies of countries throughout recent history:] Forty years ago, on May 10, 1971, Germany allowed the Deutschmark to float, precipitating the end of the international monetary arrangements reached at Bretton Woods in 1944. Exactly 10 years later, US interest rates rose to more than 20 per cent, as Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker started the wrenching process of bringing inflation, then approaching 14 per cent, under control. With China and the US at loggerheads over exchange rate policy [US saying China's currency is undervalued meaning it has an unfair competitive advantage], those anniversaries are as rich in contemporary significance as they are important in themselves. Bretton Woods collapsed because there were no constraints on US monetary expansion. That the US could shift the costs of that expansion on to the rest of the world made American recklessness a global problem. And because the adjustment was so long deferred, its costs were ultimately punitive. Exchange rates in the Bretton Woods system were fixed relative to the US dollar, which was itself convertible into gold at a fixed price of $US35 an ounce. Initially set in 1946, a general adjustment in rates was forced by the sterling crisis of 1949. There followed a long period of relatively stable exchange rates, lasting until 1967. But that stability masked mounting tensions. When the system began, the great fear was of a 'dollar shortage', but rapid recovery in Europe's exports and burgeoning US foreign investment swelled European dollar [foreign exchange] holdings. In early 1960, American monetary liabilities to foreigners overtook US gold reserves, suggesting an increase in the gold price was inevitable and so unleashing, in October of that year, the first major speculative attack on the greenback. The Kennedy administration, however, had other priorities. With harvest failures forcing the Soviet Union to sell gold, pressures on the gold price eased, but the underlying problems remained. 1965 proved the turning point, as Lyndon Johnson struggled to finance both escalation in Vietnam and the 'great society'. As expansionary monetary policy drove official interest rates [too low to stimulate the economy to support it and government taxes during the war] below the level consistent with price stability, US inflation expectations, which had fluctuated around 1 per cent, climbed towards 5 per cent, increasing doubts about prevailing exchange rates. Johnson sought to convince the Europeans to bear a higher share of the costs of the US security shield, including by not converting their holdings of dollars into gold while the conflict in Vietnam persisted. But Charles de Gaulle, who had balanced the budget, extricated France from Algeria and slashed public debt, scorned Johnson's approach and castigated Bretton Woods for allowing the US to pursue economic policies that were 'abusive and dangerous' [not a good 'global citizen']. The dollar's role as the only real reserve currency [US dollar hegemony], which [foreign] central banks had little choice but to hold, was an 'exorbitant privilege', which removed any constraint on American monetary expansion [= economic stimulation]. Cold War Germany, however, had little choice but to be a more pliant ally, and in 1967 initiated a long pattern of accommodation by agreeing not to convert its mounting dollar holdings into gold. With Germany's acquiescence bringing some relief, the Fed instigated a half-hearted [monetary policy = interest rates] tightening, but it was insufficient to bring US inflation under control and hence ease the long-run pressures on the dollar [which was falling over the long term]. This did not unduly concern Richard Nixon, whose treasury secretary, James Connolly, told a worried delegation of Europeans that as far as the administration was concerned, the dollar 'is our currency, but your problem'. Rather, with re-election in mind, Nixon urged the Fed's new chairman, Arthur Burns, to 'err towards inflation', which is exactly what he did. The resulting monetary expansion weakened the dollar, but the American position remained that it was primarily up to the Germans to revalue. Unsurprisingly, the Germans regarded this as yet another attempt to shift on to their exporters the costs of the symptoms [falling US dollar while their currency if floated would rise in comparison making their exporters less price compeitive compared to USD both overseas and in their own domestic economy] while failing to tackle any of the causes [excessive US monetary expansion]. Faced with rising speculative inflows, on May 10, 1971 the Germans, along with the Dutch (whose currency was tied to the Deutschmark), finally pulled the plug. Mean-minded at the best of times, closed-minded when things were going badly, Nixon determined to teach the Europeans a lesson. On July 15, 1971, Washington and Beijing dramatically revealed the secret Kissinger-Zhou talks. With China's re-entry on to the world stage giving him the political cover he needed, exactly four weeks later, on August 15, 1971, Nixon administered the 'Nixon shock', suspending the convertibility of the dollar into gold, imposing a 10 per cent import surcharge, and freezing US wages and prices. A hastily convened international conference tried to put the pieces back together again. But it too did little more than buy time, during which unabated US monetary expansion helped feed a worldwide price surge [inflation] that ultimately caused the oil price shocks of 1973 and 1979. Faced with those shocks, Gerald Ford and then Jimmy Carter made muddled attempts to control inflation, but lacked the courage to bear the costs curbing 15 years of inflation expectations entailed. Yet again, it was far easier to blame foreigners, going from malicious Arab sheiks to intransigent Germans and xenophobic Japanese. It was Ronald Reagan who made the difference. Though no paragon of fiscal rectitude, he understood the risks of accelerating inflation and provided [US Federal Reserve Chairman] Volcker with the support the Fed needed to put the clamps on the money supply [by raising interest rates to over 20% per annum]. Despite vocal scepticism from such eminent Keynesians as Paul Samuelson and James Tobin, the result was the beginning of a return to price stability. Forty years after the collapse of Bretton Woods, all this appears extraordinarily distant. At least in the advanced economies, floating exchange rates, the removal of capital controls and central bank independence have reshaped the monetary system for the better. Yet the fundamentals of US economic policy, with ever-growing budget deficits and 'quantitative easing' [monetary expansion] that has flooded the world with dollars, seem little sounder now than they were then. The 'exorbitant privilege' remains, though in altered form. And then as now, it is all too easy for the US to blame rising foreign economies, in this case China, for its woes, rather than tackle their root causes [Government borrowing and spending too much, keeping interest rates too low, companies and families being in debt too much in order to live beyond their means in a conspicuous consumerism culture]. No doubt, China's economy is deeply flawed, not least because of a distorted exchange rate [which they keep low to increase their export competitiveness as their economy and employment is based on manufacturing rather than domestic services and discretionary consumption]. And just as the US would benefit from dealing with its problems, so removing those distortions would be in China's interests. But it would not necessarily be in the immediate interests of China's rulers; and unlike the Germany of the 1960s, those rulers are no more inclined to buckle to American pressure now than they were when Nixon went to China. The risk, therefore, is of stresses compounding [global inflation of necessities like food and oil denominated in US dollars - which is falling so the price or number of dollars required increases], as the flaws in China's political economy aggravate those of a US still unwilling to live within its means. As that happens, the tumultuous years leading to the collapse of Bretton Woods may come to seem like a haven of tranquillity." - Henry Ergas
'The Australian' newspaper, May 16, 2011.
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[Quote No.35712] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Here is an article that addresses the nexus between US dollar hegemony and its effect on China and their policy responses. The US dollar has been falling as the US Federal Reserve quantitatively eases = prints money so the price of US denominated imports like oil and food have caused inflation of the prices of these basic necessities in China, which make up more than 50% of China's consumers' income. China's interest rates are below their inflation rate which has resulted in the Chinese buying real estate, which many say is now in a bubble, and buying gold which is rising all around the world as demand for an inflation hedge is increasing worldwide:] Tough Policy Decisions For Beijing - This week's Chinese 'data dump' showed April CPI inflation had slipped to an annual rate of 5.3% from 5.4%. It is Beijing's intention to contain inflation but while this result might suggest success, it doesn't. Apart from exceeding forecasts of 5.2% on the annual rate, the month on month CPI actually ticked up by 0.1%. Economists are thus little surprised that the People's Bank of China has again moved swiftly to raise the required reserve ratio for China's larger banks by another 50 basis points to 21% – close to the 1984 record. By increasing the level of capital reserves held by banks, the PBoC is preventing that money from being lent into the economy, and specifically to property developers. The PBoC has now raised the RRR by 0.5% five times in 2011 following six hikes in 2010. The central bank has also made sporadic increases to interest rates in its efforts to slow growth and avoid an inflation blow-out, or worse – a boom/bust. China's booming property market is in the cross-hairs and in his recent Golden Week speech, Premier Wen clearly expressed that a price decrease in overheated cities is the target of policy tightening, Citi analysts note. The analysts have noted through their anecdotal assessments that a lot of project launches have had to be postponed. Among the data dump numbers was national property sales growth figure which fell to 13.3% year-to-date from 14.9% in March. The problem is, however, as the ANZ economists suggest, that 'while an RRR hike has an immediate impact on banking liquidity, it is not effective in managing inflation expectations'. The reality is that a failure to raise interest rates, which implies a raise in both lending and deposit rates, means rising inflation has sent real deposit rates further into the negative. The result is Chinese savers are moving their deposits out of banks. On the other hand, the expectation of higher interest rates encourages a further flow of 'hot money' into China – speculative foreign investment looking to cash in on inevitable currency revaluation. This makes economic growth harder to constrain. Despite the constant RRR hikes, more than one economist notes that the PBoC [People's Bank of China] has continued to inject liquidity into the system anyway through open market operations, with the result being little change to total liquidity. A rate rise would effectively mean the PBoC withdraws liquidity. Increasing the pace of renminbi appreciation would help slow growth and lower 'imported inflation', notes ANZ [Australian and New Zealand Bank]. The renminbi is pegged to the US dollar, so unlike, for example, Australia, China feels the full impact of commodity price rises resulting from loose US monetary policy. Only last week US heavyweights were in Beijing delicately urging expedience yet again, but the more Washington tells Beijing what to do the less likely Beijing is to respond. The hot money issue has BA-Merrill Lynch economists suggesting the chances of more interest rate hikes is low, while ANZ is tipping a hike this month. JP Morgan analysts see the potential for two more hikes this year to correct negative real deposit rates and further RMB appreciation. Goldman Sachs believes Beijing will simply let the RMB appreciate against the dollar at the current 6%pa pace [US officials keep stating that the RMB is undervalued, giving China an unfair competitive advantage in exporting its manufactured goods and that an appreciation would reduce the costs of imports for China and therefore reduce their high imported inflation rate although it would reduce their exports and the employment that they provide for most of the country which is mostly a manufacturer and as yet doesn't have a big domestic market for services or discretionary spending, unlike America where that is 70% of their economy]. A lack of consensus among economists, although nothing new, does serve to emphasise the difficult position Chinese monetary authorities are in. The good news is that the 'boomy' pace of Chinese industrial production growth has been easing since the beginning of the year, JP Morgan notes. JPM expects retail sales and auto sales to moderate in the near-term. Looking ahead however, solid employment growth should lead to wage gains and thus overall consumer demand growth. Private property development will slow but only to be offset by increasing government projects. The issue here is that the global market fears too rapid a Chinese slowing, and thus quivers every time Beijing does raise interest rates or looks like it might. Commodity prices are usually first to post a negative response [as lower growth means less manufacturing and less of the basic commodities used in manufacturing.] But consensus among economists is that there is little to fear in the way of dangerous Chinese slowing, and thus fears over further tightening are largely unwarranted. All economists expect the pace of RRR hikes to be ongoing but the blunter tool of interest rate increases will not be wielded too indiscriminately." - Greg Peel
Former Macquarie Investment Bank derivatives trader and now financial journalist. Published in FNArena News, www.fnarena.com May 13, 2011.
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[Quote No.35713] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Bull markets die of exhaustion and over-participation." - Richard Russell
Financial newsletter writer.
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[Quote No.35714] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Here's a quote that helps show the fundamentals behind currency movements, to help an investor, rather than just rely on technical charts alone:] Societe Generale, the second-largest French bank forecasts the euro will reach $1.52 by year end and $1.55 in 12 months. The head of foreign exchange strategy at the bank cited the higher growth figures, and expectations of higher rates compared to the US$ as reasons for the increase in their call for the euro. Growth in Europe is twice that of the US, and the ECB will be raising rates sooner than the Fed. Interest rate differentials are important in currency valuations, and especially when a central bank is seen as being 'in front' of the inflation curve. While the US could be caught leaving rates too low for too long, the ECB looks to start tightening in an attempt to head off inflation... Business economists aren't falling for the 'official' CPI numbers, and are beginning to get worried by the higher prices. A survey conducted by the National Association of Business Economics showed economists' growth expectations have been lowered. Consumer and business spending will probably increase less than projected three months ago, while employment forecasts were revised up. Climbing prices in the US along with the sovereign debt crisis in Europe have again combined to put fear back into the minds of investors Friday and over the weekend. Risk was taken off the table, and the US$ and Japanese yen were the big winners. Equity markets and commodities all traded lower Friday, and continued to drop in early European trading. Lower commodity prices pushed the value of the 'commodity currencies' down again on Friday. The New Zeland dollar and South African rand was the most dramatic victims, falling nearly 2% vs. the US$ in the past two days. The Brazilian real and Australian dollar also got sold as the commodities which are so important to both economies decreased in price. The Australian dollar was also pushed lower by a report which showed Australian home loan approvals fell to the lowest in more than 10 years in March. Many investors now feel the Reserve Bank will delay future interest rate increases as another report released last week showed employers unexpectedly cut jobs in April. The Canadian dollar fell to a six week low as commodities and equities losses sapped demand for the loonie. The general 'risk off' sentiment which swept through the trading desks on Friday caused investors to sell everything except the US$ and Japanese yen, and the Canadian dollar got sold. It seemed like a knee jerk reaction, as I typically don't consider the Canadian dollar a 'high yielding' currency. If the Canadian dollar continues to fall, it could present an excellent opportunity for those who felt like they had 'missed the boat' on getting into the CAD$ over the past few years. The Indian rupee is getting sold in the currency markets in spite of a report which showed India's inflation was faster than estimated in April. Higher prices will add to growing pressure for another interest rate increase following the 50 basis point increase on May 3rd. India's economy is expected to grow at an 8% pace in 2011 after growing 8.6% last year. The government raised fuel prices by 5 rupees a liter last week, the biggest increase since June of 2008. I would expect to see the Reserve Bank of India continue to move rates even higher as they try to combat inflation, which should give good support to the Indian currency." - Chris Gaffney
CFA, Vice President, EverBank World Markets. Published in the currency-fx newsletter, 'The Daily Pfennig', 16th May, 2011.
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[Quote No.35719] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Do central banks intervene in the currency markets? Yes they do.] Japanese Yen Grows Dangerously Close to Testing the G7’s Resolve for ‘Stability’ - We learned this past Friday [13th May, 2011] from the New York Fed[eral Reserve Bank] that in the coordinated G7 intervention on the Japanese yen [due to the 13 March 2011, 8.9-magnitude earthquake in Fukushima, Japan followed by a tsunami and nuclear plant meltdown] that the Fed bought $1 billion. This is a timely reminder that the largest central banks in the world stand ready to intervene on the yen’s behalf should it move on to untenable extremes [in this case due to speculation that the economy would crash so yen would be sold and then yen would rise with massive carry trade repatriation of yen for insurance claims and rebuilding driving the price up and thereby reducing the yen value of these repatriated foreign assets as well as making Japan's manufacturing industry even less competitive in export and domestic markets, just when it was already suffering from production interruptions including power blackouts and transportation difficulties]. However, is this an issue of position or volatility? We may find out sooner than we think should risk trends fall apart." - John Kicklighter
Currency Strategist for www.dailyfx.com May 16, 2011.
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