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  Quotations - Invest  
[Quote No.39740] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The last three global recessions (prior to 2008) were each caused by a geopolitical shock in the Middle East that led to a sharp spike in oil prices. The 1973 Yom Kippur War between Israel and the Arab states led to global stagflation (recession and inflation) in 1974-1975. The Iranian revolution in 1979 led to global stagflation in 1980-1982. And Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in the summer of 1990 led to the global recession of 1990-1991. Even the recent global recession, though triggered by a financial crisis, was exacerbated by spiking oil prices in 2008. With the barrel price reaching $145 in July of that year, oil-importing advanced economies and emerging markets alike faced a recessionary tipping point. ...Oil [in 2012] is already well above $100/barrel, despite weak economic growth in advanced countries and many emerging markets. The fear premium might push prices significantly higher, even if no military conflict ultimately takes place, and could trigger a global recession if one does." - Nouriel Roubini
Economist. Published on economonitor.com March 15th, 2012. [http://www.economonitor.com/nouriel/2012/03/15/scary-oil/?utm_source=contactology&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EconoMonitor%20Highlights%3A%20This%20Week%20Had%20a%20Little%20Bit%20of%20Everything ]
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[Quote No.39917] Need Area: Money > Invest
"You will go most safely in the middle." - Ovid

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[Quote No.40094] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Liquidity provision is a term that most investors will hear frequently while following markets, therefore the following speech should be helpful to grasp the general concepts:] Liquidity Provision by the Federal Reserve: - Well-functioning financial markets are an essential link in the transmission of monetary policy to the economy and a critical foundation for economic growth and stability. However, since August, severe financial strains have shaken this foundation. A sharp housing contraction has generated substantial losses on many mortgage-related assets and a broad-based tightening in credit availability. Consistent with its role as the nation's central bank, the Federal Reserve has responded not only with an easing of monetary policy but also with a number of steps aimed at reducing funding pressures for depository institutions and primary securities dealers and at improving overall market liquidity and market functioning.1 In my remarks today, I will begin by reviewing the principles that should guide central banks' actions to support market liquidity. Then, in light of those principles, I will discuss the liquidity measures implemented by the Federal Reserve in response to the financial turmoil. I will conclude by offering some thoughts on liquidity regulation. The Principles Behind Central Bank Liquidity Provisions The notion that a central bank should provide liquidity to the banking system in a crisis has a long intellectual lineage. Walter Bagehot's Lombard Street, published in 1873, remains one of the classic treatments of the role of the central bank in the management of financial crises. Bagehot noted that the basis of a successful credit system is confidence. In one passage, he writes, 'Credit means that a certain confidence is given, and a certain trust reposed. Is that trust justified? and is that confidence wise? These are the cardinal questions' (p. 11). He pointed out that confidence is particularly important in banking and in other situations in which the lender's own liabilities are viewed as very liquid by its creditors. In such situations, as Bagehot put it, '...where the 'liabilities,' or promises to pay, are so large, and the time at which to pay them, if exacted, is so short,' borrowers must demonstrate 'an instant capacity to meet engagements' (p. 11). Meeting creditors' demands for payment requires holding liquidity--cash, essentially, or close equivalents. But neither individual institutions, nor the private sector as a whole, can maintain enough cash on hand to meet a demand for liquidation of all, or even a substantial fraction of, short-term liabilities. Doing so would be both unprofitable and socially undesirable. It would be unprofitable because cash pays a lower return than other investments. And it would be socially undesirable, because an excessive preference for liquid assets reduces society's ability to fund longer-term investments that carry a high return but cannot be liquidated quickly. However, holding liquid assets that are only a fraction of short-term liabilities presents an obvious risk. If most or all creditors, for lack of confidence or some other reason, demand cash at the same time, a borrower that finances longer-term assets with liquid liabilities will not be able to meet the demand. It would be forced either to defer or suspend payments or to sell some of its less-liquid assets (presumably at steep discounts) to make the payments. Either option may lead to the failure of the borrower, so that the loss of confidence, even if not originally justified by fundamentals, will tend to be self-confirming. If the loss of confidence becomes more general, a broader crisis may ensue. How should a central bank respond to a sharp increase in the demand for cash or equivalents by private creditors? Before talking about Bagehot's answer, I should note that the Bank of England in his time was a hybrid institution--it was privately owned by shareholders, but it also had a public role. To fulfill its public role, the Bank of England did not in all cases maximize its profits; notably, it held a larger share of its assets in liquid form than did other banks, thereby foregoing some return. Nevertheless, in the context of the gold standard, the Bank's stock of liquid assets was relatively modest in size, raising the possibility that even this quasi-public institution could run out of cash should the demand for liquidity become high enough.2 In this context, Bagehot's advice on how the Bank of England should respond to a generalized liquidity shortage was somewhat counterintuitive. He wrote: 'In opposition to what might be at first sight supposed, the best [policy] . . . to deal with a drain arising from internal discredit, is to lend freely. The first instinct of everyone is the contrary. There being a large demand on a fund which you want to preserve, the most obvious way to preserve it is to hoard it--to get in as much as you can, and to let nothing go out which you can help. But every banker knows that this is not the way to diminish discredit. This discredit means, 'an opinion that you have not got any money,' and to dissipate that opinion, you must, if possible, show that you have money: you must employ it for the public benefit in order that the public may know that you have it. The time for economy and for accumulation is before. A good banker will have accumulated in ordinary times the reserve he is to make use of in extraordinary times.' (p. 24) And what are the terms at which the central bank should lend freely? Bagehot argues that 'these loans should only be made at a very high rate of interest' (p. 99). Some modern commentators have rationalized Bagehot's dictum to lend at a high or 'penalty' rate as a way to mitigate moral hazard--that is, to help maintain incentives for private-sector banks to provide for adequate liquidity in advance of any crisis. I will return to the issue of moral hazard later. But it is worth pointing out briefly that, in fact, the risk of moral hazard did not appear to be Bagehot's principal motivation for recommending a high rate; rather, he saw it as a tool to dissuade unnecessary borrowing and thus to help protect the Bank of England's own finite store of liquid assets.3 Today, potential limitations on the central bank's lending capacity are not nearly so pressing an issue as in Bagehot's time, when the central bank's ability to provide liquidity was far more tenuous. Bagehot defined a financial crisis largely in terms of a banking panic--that is, a situation in which depositors rapidly and simultaneously attempt to withdraw funds from their bank accounts. In the 19th century, such panics were a lethal threat for banks that were financing long-term loans with demand deposits that could be called at any time. In modern financial systems, the combination of effective banking supervision and deposit insurance has substantially reduced the threat of retail deposit runs. Nonetheless, recent events demonstrate that liquidity risks are always present for institutions--banks and nonbanks alike--that finance illiquid assets with short-term liabilities. For example, since August, mortgage lenders, commercial and investment banks, and structured investment vehicles have experienced great difficulty in rolling over commercial paper backed by subprime and other mortgages. More broadly, a loss of confidence in credit ratings led to a sharp contraction in the asset-backed commercial paper market as short-term investors withdrew their funds. And remarkably, some financial institutions have even experienced pressures in rolling over maturing repurchase agreements (repos). I say 'remarkably' because, until recently, short-term repos had always been regarded as virtually risk-free instruments and thus largely immune to the type of rollover or withdrawal risks associated with short-term unsecured obligations. In March, rapidly unfolding events demonstrated that even repo markets could be severely disrupted when investors believe they might need to sell the underlying collateral in illiquid markets. Such forced asset sales can set up a particularly adverse dynamic, in which further substantial price declines fan investor concerns about counterparty credit risk, which then feed back in the form of intensifying funding pressures. Recent research by Allen and Gale (2007) confirms that, in principle at least, 'fire sales' forced by sharp increases in investors' liquidity preference can drive asset prices below their fundamental value, at significant cost to the financial system and the economy. Their work underscores the basic logic in Bagehot's prescription for crisis management: A central bank may be able to eliminate, or at least attenuate, adverse outcomes by making cash loans secured by borrowers' illiquid but sound assets. Thus, borrowers can avoid selling securities into an illiquid market, and the potential for economic damage--arising, for example, from the unavailability of credit for productive purposes or the inefficient liquidation of long-term investments--is substantially reduced. Liquidity Powers of Other Central Banks:- This prescription for providing liquidity in a crisis is simple in theory, but, in practice, it can be far more complicated. For instance, how should the central bank distinguish between institutions whose liquidity pressures stem primarily from a breakdown in financial market functioning and those whose problems fundamentally derive from underlying concerns about their solvency? The answer, at times, is by no means straightforward. There are other complexities, too. Central banks provide liquidity through a variety of mechanisms, including open market operations and direct credit extension through standing lending facilities. The choice of tools in a crisis depends on the circumstances as well as on specific institutional factors. The European Central Bank (ECB), for example, routinely conducts open market operations with a wide range of counterparties against a broad range of collateral. In recent months, in light of intense pressures in term funding markets, the ECB has provided relatively large quantities of reserves through longer-term open market operations. Extending this strategy, the ECB also introduced a new refinancing operation with a six-month maturity. The first of these was executed on April 2 and was well received. The Bank of England has followed a similar strategy, expanding their term open market operations and accepting a wider range of collateral. Very recently, the Bank of England also initiated a special liquidity facility that allows banks to swap high-quality mortgage-backed and other securities for U.K. Treasury bills. Differences in legal and institutional structure have affected the methods used by various central banks to inject liquidity in their markets. In the United States, in ordinary circumstances only depository institutions have direct access to the discount window, and open market operations are conducted with just a small set of primary dealers against a narrow range of highly liquid collateral. In contrast, in jurisdictions with universal banking, the distinction between depository institutions and other types of financial institutions is much less relevant in defining access to central bank liquidity than is the case in the United States. Moreover, some central banks (such as the ECB) have greater flexibility than the Federal Reserve in the types of collateral they can accept in open market operations. As a result, some foreign central banks have been able to address the recent liquidity pressures within their existing frameworks without resorting to extraordinary measures. In contrast, the Federal Reserve has had to use methods it does not usually employ to address liquidity pressures across a number of markets and institutions. In effect, the Federal Reserve has had to innovate in large part to achieve what other central banks have been able to effect through existing tools. The financial distress since August has also underscored the importance of international cooperation among central banks. For some time, central banks have recognized that managing crises involving large financial institutions operating across national borders and in multiple currencies can present difficult challenges. Funding pressures can easily arise in more than one currency and in more than one jurisdiction. In such cases, central banks may find it essential to work closely together. For just this reason, the Federal Reserve, the ECB, and the Swiss National Bank have established currency swap arrangements and have coordinated their provision of dollar liquidity to international financial institutions over recent months. Federal Reserve Liquidity Operations:- In the United States, open market operations have long been the principal tool used by the Federal Reserve to manage the aggregate level of reserves in the banking system and thereby control the federal funds rate. The discount window has typically functioned as a backstop, serving as a source of reserves when conditions in the federal funds market tighten significantly or when individual depository institutions experience short-term funding pressures. Throughout much of the Federal Reserve's history, this basic structure has proven adequate to address liquidity pressures, even during some periods of market turmoil. However, it became abundantly clear that this traditional framework for liquidity provision was not up to addressing the recent strains in short-term funding markets. In particular, the efficacy of the discount window has been limited by the reluctance of depository institutions to use the window as a source of funding. The 'stigma' associated with the discount window, which if anything intensifies during periods of crisis, arises primarily from banks' concerns that market participants will draw adverse inferences about their financial condition if their borrowing from the Federal Reserve were to become known. The Federal Reserve has taken steps to make discount window borrowing through the regular primary credit program more attractive. Most notably, we narrowed the spread of the primary credit rate over the target federal funds rate from 100 basis points in August to only 25 basis points today. In addition, to address the pressures in term funding markets, we now permit depositories to borrow for as long as 90 days, renewable at their discretion so long as they remain in sound financial condition. These actions have had some success in increasing depository institutions' willingness to borrow. Moreover, the existence of the option to borrow through the discount window, even if not exercised, likely has improved confidence by assuring depository institutions that backstop liquidity will be available should they need it. Still, the continuing disruptions in short-term funding markets over recent months suggested that new ways of providing liquidity were necessary. Last December, the Federal Reserve introduced the Term Auction Facility, or TAF, through which predetermined amounts of discount window credit are auctioned every two weeks to eligible borrowers for terms of 28 days. In effect, TAF auctions are very similar to open market operations, but conducted with depository institutions rather than primary dealers and against a much broader range of collateral than is accepted in standard open market operations. The TAF, apparently because of its competitive auction format and the certainty that a large amount of credit would be made available, appears to have overcome the stigma problem to a significant degree. Indeed, a large number of banks--ranging from 52 to more than 90--have participated in each of the 11 auctions held thus far. The TAF has also simplified the implementation of monetary policy by providing greater predictability of the level of borrowings by depository institutions and consequently of bank reserves. The size of individual TAF auctions has been raised over time from $20 billion at the inception of the program to $75 billion in the auctions this month. We stand ready to increase the size of the auctions further if warranted by financial developments. The recent market turmoil has also affected the liquidity positions of financial institutions that do not ordinarily have access to the discount window. In particular, prior to the recent experience, it was believed that primary dealers were not especially susceptible to runs by their creditors. Primary dealers typically rely on short-term secured financing arrangements, and the collateralization of those borrowings was thought sufficient to maintain the confidence of investors. Consequently, dealers' liquidity management policies and contingency plans were typically based on the assumption that they would not be faced with a sudden loss of financing. But these beliefs were predicated on the assumption that financial markets would always be reasonably liquid. As I have already noted, recent events have proven that assumption unwarranted, and the risk developed that liquidity pressures might force dealers to sell assets into already illiquid markets. This might have resulted in Allen and Gale's fire sale scenario that I mentioned earlier, in which a cascade of failures and liquidations sharply depresses asset prices, with adverse financial and economic implications. This heightened risk led the Federal Reserve to expand its ability to supply liquidity to primary dealers. In March, to ease strains that had developed in the agency mortgage-backed securities market, the Federal Reserve initiated as part of its open-market operations a series of single-tranche repurchase transactions with terms of roughly 28 days and cumulating to up to $100 billion. For the purposes of these transactions, primary dealers can deliver as collateral any securities eligible in conventional open market operations. Additionally, the Federal Reserve introduced the Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF), which allows primary dealers to exchange less-liquid securities for Treasury securities for terms of 28 days at an auction-determined fee. Recently, the Federal Reserve expanded the list of securities eligible for such transactions to include all AAA/Aaa-rated asset-backed securities. By mid-March, however, the pressures in short-term financing markets intensified, and market participants were speculating about the financial condition of Bear Stearns, a prominent investment bank. On March 13, Bear advised the Federal Reserve and other government agencies that its liquidity position had significantly deteriorated, and that it would be forced to file for bankruptcy the next day unless alternative sources of funds became available. A bankruptcy filing would have forced Bear's secured creditors and counterparties to liquidate the underlying collateral and, given the illiquidity of markets, those creditors and counterparties might well have sustained losses. If they responded to losses or the unexpected illiquidity of their holdings by pulling back from providing secured financing to other firms, a much broader liquidity crisis would have ensued. In such circumstances, the Federal Reserve Board judged that it was appropriate to use its emergency lending authorities under the Federal Reserve Act to avoid a disorderly closure of Bear. Accordingly, the Federal Reserve, in close consultation with the Treasury Department, agreed to provide short-term funding to Bear Stearns through JPMorgan Chase. Over the following weekend, JPMorgan Chase agreed to purchase Bear Stearns and assumed the company's financial obligations. The Federal Reserve, again in close consultation with the Treasury Department, agreed to supply term funding, secured by $30 billion in Bear Stearns assets, to facilitate the purchase. In a further effort to short-circuit a possible downward spiral in financing markets, the Federal Reserve used its emergency authorities to create the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF). The PDCF allows primary dealers to borrow at the same rate at which depository institutions can access the discount window, with the borrowings able to be secured by a broad range of investment-grade securities. In effect, the PDCF provides primary dealers with a liquidity backstop similar to the discount window for depository institutions in generally sound financial condition. To date, our liquidity measures appear to have contributed to some improvement in financing markets. The existence of the PDCF seems to have bolstered confidence among primary dealers' counterparties (including the clearing banks, which provide the dealers with critical intra-day secured credit). In addition, conditions in the Treasury repo market, which became very strained around mid-March, have improved substantially. Liquidity is better in several other markets as well. For example, spreads on agency mortgage-backed securities have dropped in recent weeks after reaching very high levels in mid-March, as have spreads between conforming fixed-rate mortgage rates and Treasury rates. Spreads on jumbo mortgage loans have retraced a portion of their earlier large increases, but recent regulatory and legislative changes make it difficult to assess the impact of liquidity measures in that segment of the market. Corporate debt spreads have also declined somewhat from recent highs. These are welcome signs, of course, but at this stage conditions in financial markets are still far from normal. A number of securitization markets remain moribund, risk spreads--although off their recent peaks--generally remain quite elevated, and pressures in short-term funding markets persist. Spreads of term dollar Libor over comparable-maturity overnight index swap rates have receded some from their recent peaks but remain abnormally high.4 Funding pressures have also been evident in the strong participation at recent TAF auctions even after the recent expansions in auction sizes, and, of late, depository institutions have borrowed significant amounts under the primary credit program for terms of up to 90 days. Ultimately, market participants themselves must address the fundamental sources of financial strains--through deleveraging, raising new capital, and improving risk management--and this process is likely to take some time. The Federal Reserve's various liquidity measures should help facilitate that process indirectly by boosting investor confidence and by reducing the risks of severe disruption during the period of adjustment. Once financial conditions become more normal, the extraordinary provision of liquidity by the Federal Reserve will no longer be needed. As Bagehot would surely advise, under normal conditions financial institutions should look to private counterparties and not central banks as a source of ongoing funding. Liquidity Regulation and Moral Hazard:- The provision of liquidity by a central bank can help mitigate a financial crisis. However, central banks face a tradeoff when deciding to provide extraordinary liquidity support. A central bank that is too quick to act as liquidity provider of last resort risks inducing moral hazard; specifically, if market participants come to believe that the Federal Reserve or other central banks will take such measures whenever financial stress develops, financial institutions and their creditors would have less incentive to pursue suitable strategies for managing liquidity risk and more incentive to take such risks. Although central banks should give careful consideration to their criteria for invoking extraordinary liquidity measures, the problem of moral hazard can perhaps be most effectively addressed by prudential supervision and regulation that ensures that financial institutions manage their liquidity risks effectively in advance of the crisis. Recall Bagehot's advice: 'The time for economy and for accumulation is before. A good banker will have accumulated in ordinary times the reserve he is to make use of in extraordinary times' (p. 24). Indeed, under the international Basel II capital accord, supervisors are expected to require that institutions have adequate processes in place to measure and manage risk, importantly including liquidity risk. In light of the recent experience, and following the recommendations of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets (2008), the Federal Reserve and other supervisors are reviewing their policies and guidance regarding liquidity risk management to determine what improvements can be made. In particular, future liquidity planning will have to take into account the possibility of a sudden loss of substantial amounts of secured financing. Of course, even the most carefully crafted regulations cannot ensure that liquidity crises will not happen again. But, if moral hazard is effectively mitigated, and if financial institutions and investors draw appropriate lessons from the recent experience about the need for strong liquidity risk management practices, the frequency and severity of future crises should be significantly reduced. References: - --Allen, Franklin, and Douglas Gale (2007). Understanding Financial Crises, Clarendon Lectures in Finance. Oxford: Oxford University Press. --Bagehot, Walter (1873). Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market. London: King. Reprint, Gloucester, U.K.: Dodo Press, 2006. --Clapham, John (1945). The Bank of England: A History. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. --President's Working Group on Financial Markets (2008). 'Policy Statement on Financial Market Developments (1.36 MB PDF),' March. Footnotes: 1. Primary securities dealers are broker-dealers that trade in U.S. government securities with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The New York Fed's Open Market Desk engages in the trades on behalf of the Federal Reserve System to implement monetary policy. 2. Such a circumstance could arise in two ways: The banking reserve--that is, the liquid assets backing deposits at the Bank of England--could fall to a low level as a result of heavy discounting or the issue reserve--that is gold bullion backing Bank of England notes--could run short because of substantial redemptions by note holders. Indeed, the Bank of England's gold reserves, its ultimate store of liquidity, along with the gold in circulation, were quite small relative to total sterling deposits in the U.K. banking system. This implied, as English historian Sir John Clapham (1945) noted, that there was just a 'thin film of gold' (p. 299) tying the pound to the gold standard. 3. A high rate, Bagehot (1873) wrote, 'will prevent the greatest number of applications by persons who do not require it' (p. 99) and ensure that "no one may borrow out of idle precaution without paying well for it; that the [Bank of England's] reserve may be protected as far as possible" (p. 99). Moreover, as Clapham (1945) observed, higher interest rates during a period of crisis would draw in gold from abroad, easing strains on the Bank. 4. Libor is the London interbank offered rate, a standard measure of the cost of funds in the interbank market. " - Ben Bernanke
Chairman of the US Federal Reserve. Speech delivered May 13, 2008. [http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20080513.htm ]
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[Quote No.40141] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Youth is easily deceived, because it is quick to hope." - Aristotle
(384 BC - 322 BC), ancient Greek philosopher, scientist and physician.
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[Quote No.40154] Need Area: Money > Invest
"You must get good at one of two things:- planting in the spring or begging in the fall!" - Jim Rohn
Highly successful entrepreneur and philosopher.
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[Quote No.40165] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[To paraphrase Winston Churchill's comment about Russia] I cannot forecast to you the action of the share market [Russia]. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma." - Winston Churchill
British Prime Minister. Quote from 1st October, 1939.
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[Quote No.40166] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Instead of furthering the inevitable liquidation of the maladjustments brought about by the boom during the last three years, all conceivable means have been used to prevent that readjustment from taking place; and one of these means, which has been repeatedly tried though without success, from the earliest to the most recent stages of depression, has been this deliberate policy of credit expansion... To combat the depression by a forced credit expansion is to attempt to cure the evil by the very means which brought it about; because we are suffering from a misdirection of production, we want to create further misdirection – a procedure that can only lead to a much more severe crisis as soon as the credit expansion comes to an end...." - Friedrich August Hayek
(1899 – 1992), Famous economist, who shared the 1974 Nobel Prize for Economics. Quote about the Great Depression, from June 1932.
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[Quote No.40225] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The government’s policy [is creating] a short-term boom in housing. Like all artificially-created bubbles, the boom in housing prices cannot last forever. When housing prices fall, homeowners will experience difficulty as their equity is wiped out. Furthermore, the holders of the mortgage debt will also have a loss. These losses will be greater than they would have otherwise been had government policy not actively encouraged over-investment in housing. Perhaps the Federal Reserve can stave off the day of reckoning by purchasing GSE debt and pumping liquidity into the housing market, but this cannot hold off the inevitable drop in the housing market forever. In fact, postponing the necessary but painful market corrections will only deepen the inevitable fall." - Ron Paul
Doctor and US Republican Congressman for Texas. Quote from 'Government Mortgage Schemes Distort the Housing Market', 16 July 2002. The housing market started imploding in 2005 and in 2008 it caused the greatest share market crash since the Great Depression.
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[Quote No.40226] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Asset bubble formation from too low interest rates for too long:] The prolonged low interest rates under benign financial and economic conditions tend to create overconfidence and thus boost asset prices and collateral values as well as incomes and profits, thereby leading to affecting risk perception as well as enhancing risk tolerance. As a result, aggressive risk-taking behavior in the financial system surges, while a resultant build-up of financial imbalances is likely to be left unchecked. Such financial imbalances come to the surface only once the economic environment starts deteriorating." - Masaaki Shirakawa
Governor of the Bank of Japan. Quote from 'Financial System and Monetary Policy Implementation: Long and Winding Evolution in the Way of Thinking'. [http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/english/publication/mes/fmes.html ]
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[Quote No.40228] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[It is well known by incumbent politicians wishing to be re-elected that they should try to influence the share market to be rising when they go into elections. Share investors know this as the presidential election cycle effect. The following is a quote of the conclusion-abstract from a published study regarding this:] We analyze all US presidential election bids. We find a positive, significant relationship between the incumbent’s vote margin and the prior net percentage change in the stock market. This relationship does not extend to the incumbent’s party when the incumbent does not run for re-election. We find no significant relationships between the incumbent’s vote margin and inflation or unemployment. GDP is a significant predictor of the incumbent’s popular vote margin in simple regression but is rendered insignificant when combined with the stock market in multiple regression. Egotropic and sociotropic voting hypotheses fail to account for the findings. The results are consistent with socionomic voting theory, which includes the hypotheses that (1) social mood as reflected by the stock market is a more powerful regulator of re-election outcomes than economic variables such as GDP, inflation and unemployment and (2) voters unconsciously credit or blame the leader for their mood." - Robert R. Prechter, Jr., Deepak Goel, Wayne D. Parker and Matthew Lampert
ROBERT R. PRECHTER, JR. DEEPAK GOEL [both from Socionomics Institute, 200 Main St. Ste 350, Gainesville, GA 30501, USA] WAYNE D. PARKER [Emory University School of Medicine, currently on inactive status. 4651 Roswell Road NE Ste H-701, Atlanta, GA 30342, USA] MATTHEW LAMPERT [University of Cambridge; Faculty of Politics, Psychology, Sociology and International Studies; Department of Sociology; Free School Lane; Cambridge; CB2 3RQ; United Kingdom.] Quote from the paper 'SOCIAL MOOD, STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE AND US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: A SOCIONOMIC PERSPECTIVE ON VOTING RESULTS', Published: January 17, 2012 Revised: March 16, 2012 [http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1987160&http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1987160 ]
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[Quote No.40229] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The stock market, just like it’s forecast nine of the past five recessions, it’s forecast nine of the past five recoveries." - Lakshman Achuthan
Co-founder and chief operations officer of the Economic Cycles Research Institute [ECRI].
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[Quote No.40241] Need Area: Money > Invest
"We will not have any more crashes in our time." - John Maynard Keynes
Famous economist, quoted in 1927, before the worst stock market crash in history and subsequent worldwide depression, 1929-1933. He later, in trying to understand and offer a way to avoid future depressions, came up with the ideas we now call Keynesian economics.
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[Quote No.40419] Need Area: Money > Invest
"I always say that people do not trade the markets; they trade their beliefs about the markets." - Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.

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[Quote No.40421] Need Area: Money > Invest
"In the classic book 'The Wizard of Oz', the Wizard decreed that everyone who entered the Emerald City wear green-tinted glasses. Visitors and citizens were told that this was to protect them from the 'brightness and glory.' In truth, though, the Wizard had lost his mojo and become a run-of-the-mill charlatan. There was no brightness and glory, just an ordinary city built out of stone and glass. Bull markets are Emerald Cities of our own making. In a bull market it is decreed that investors and the media shall wear green-tinted glasses. Suddenly, all economic news and fundamental facts turn green and glittery — there is no bad news, only shades of good. In a bear market the mandate is different: Everyone is to wear red-tinted glasses. The Emerald City is no more. Now all news comes in three shades of Soviet Kremlin red: bad, ugly and downright devastating. This happens because we are human. The pressure of rising prices in bull markets or falling prices in bear markets leads us to engage in backward analysis. Instead of first analyzing the events and only then forming an opinion, we look at the market reaction to the news and let it dictate what we should think. In the long run, stock prices follow fundamentals like cash flow and earnings growth. In the short run — well, this old cowboy saying tells it all: 'Nobody but cattle know why they stampede, and they ain’t talking.' The danger of wearing glasses determined by the market is that reality will not be suspended forever, no matter the tint of your shades. By following the 'color decree,' you are effectively taking advice from the market on how to analyze, what to pay attention to and what to buy or sell. This is the sure road to buy-high-sell-low despair. The market is the worst giver of advice — it’s prone to tell you what you should have done, not what you should do." - Vitaliy N. Katsenelson
CFA and Chief Investment Officer at Investment Management Associates in Denver, Colorado.
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[Quote No.40478] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Watching the price of oil is very important for determining inflation and future interest rates. It also has been a major factor in nearly every recession, because it is a component in the cost of so many goods in the economy from food, to transport to plastics and electricity. The effect of changes in the price of oil takes some time to effect the real economy but the share market as a forward looking economic indicator will react to them more quickly.] One reason for a higher core CPI is that the rise in energy prices over the past year is starting to get embedded in underlying prices. Analyst calculations report that a $10 increase in the price of a barrel of Crude Oil pushes up the personal consumption expenditures price index, an alternate inflation measure closely watched by the Fed, by 0.1 percentage point after 1 yr. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) similar estimates that a 10% increase in Crude oil prices pushes up inflation by 0.5 percentage point after 1 yr, and 5 yrs later, it still accounts for a 0.1 percentage point of the price increase, it has a lasting impact. Last year’s Crude Oil price rise now is getting built into underlying prices in the United States. Crude Oil costs rose 35% in early Y 2011 on political turmoil in North Africa and the Middle East (MENA)." - Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.
He writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world. Quote from an article published April 15, 2012. [http://www.livetradingnews.com/why-inflation-is-a-good-thing-69405.htm?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+EbelingHeffernanLTN+%28Live+Stock+Trading+News%29 ]
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[Quote No.40481] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Countries where there was a bigger build up in household debt had a much more painful recession, unemployment went up more, GDP fell significantly more and stayed lower for up to five years. [The IMF’s findings were based on an examination of 25 economies over the last 30 years.] " - Daniel Leigh
International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) senior economist. Published April, 2012. [http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/04/imf-high-household-debt-worsens-recessions/?utm_source=Media+List&utm_campaign=1ba1d7dcef-RSS_DAILY_MAILCHIMP_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email ]
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[Quote No.40482] Need Area: Money > Invest
"When investing, it is important to continuously get as much up-to-date, useful information as possible or else you are behaving like someone driving fast on a highway using only their sense of smell for direction." - Seymour@imagi-natives.com

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[Quote No.40483] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Asset-price bubbles are typically accompanied by a rapid increase of trading volume ... this gives market participants a false sense of security that those assets are very liquid, and that they can always get out if things start to go wrong." - Richard C. Koo
Chief Economist of Nomura Reasearch Institute. Quote from his book, 'The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lesson's from Japan's Great Recession'.
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[Quote No.40610] Need Area: Money > Invest
"If fifty million people say [or do] a foolish thing, it is still a foolish thing!" - Anatole France
winner Nobel Prize for Literature, 1921
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[Quote No.40631] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Illusion is a dangerous thing!" - Ralph Waldo Emerson

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[Quote No.40632] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The central truth of the investment business is that investment behavior is driven by career risk. In the professional investment business we are all agents, managing other peoples’ money. The prime directive, as Keynes knew so well, is first and last to keep your job. To do this, he explained that you must never, ever be wrong on your own. To prevent this calamity, professional investors pay ruthless attention to what other investors in general are doing. The great majority 'go with the flow,' either completely or partially. This creates herding, or momentum, which drives prices far above or far below fair price. There are many other ineffciencies in market pricing, but this is by far the largest. It explains the discrepancy between a remarkably volatile stock market and a remarkably stable GDP growth, together with an equally stable growth in 'fair value' for the stock market. This difference is massive – two-thirds of the time annual GDP growth and annual change in the fair value of the market is within plus or minus a tiny 1% of its long-term trend... The market’s actual price – brought to us by the workings of wild and wooly individuals – is within plus or minus 19% two-thirds of the time. Thus, the market moves 19 times more than is justified by the underlying engines!" - Jeremy Granthan
Well-known value investor and co-founder of the asset management firm GMO. Quote from his 'Quarterly Newsletter', April 2012.
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[Quote No.40633] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The market usually goes down much faster than it goes up, making it more difficult for those who are not prepared. The market again demonstrated its tendency to go down faster than it goes up by recently losing more than two months of gains in just five days in response to unexpected negative economic reports." - Sy Harding
Quote from 'Street Smart Report', April 13, 2012. [http://www.streetsmartreport.com/comm3.html ]
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[Quote No.40804] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Economists possess their full share of the common ability to invent and commit errors...perhaps their most common error is to believe other economists. " - Joseph Stigler
winner Nobel Prize for Economics, 1982
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[Quote No.40806] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The only information that is of value in a financial market is information that other people don’t have [and therefore is not already reflected-discounted in that market]." - Herbert Simon
winner Nobel Prize for Economics, 1978
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[Quote No.41002] Need Area: Money > Invest
"It is ultimately always the subjective value judgments of individuals that determine the formation of prices...Each individual, in buying or not buying [demand] and in selling or not selling [supply], contributes his share to the formation of the market prices." - Ludwig von Mises
[1881 – 1973], an Austrian-American economist, historian, philosopher, author, and classical liberal who had a significant influence on the modern free-market libertarian movement and the Austrian School of economics. Refer the website [ mises.org ].
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[Quote No.41024] Need Area: Money > Invest
"An increase in the purchasing power of money [deflation] is disadvantageous to the debtor [i.e. bank that borrows from savers, company or government which borrows by issuing and selling bonds] and advantageous to the creditor [i.e. saver, bond buyer]; a decrease in its purchasing power [inflation] has the contrary significance." - Ludwig von Mises
[1881 – 1973], an Austrian-American economist, historian, philosopher, author, and classical liberal who had a significant influence on the modern free-market libertarian movement and the Austrian School of economics. Refer the website [ mises.org ].
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[Quote No.41036] Need Area: Money > Invest
"All economic activity is based upon an uncertain future. It is therefore bound up with risk. It is essentially speculation... Estimates of future volume of production, future sales, future costs, or future profits or losses are not facts, but speculative anticipations. There are no facts about future profits." - Ludwig von Mises
[1881 – 1973], an Austrian-American economist, historian, philosopher, author, and classical liberal who had a significant influence on the modern free-market libertarian movement and the Austrian School of economics. Refer the website [ mises.org ].
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[Quote No.41041] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The available supply of every commodity is limited. If it were not scarce with regard to the demand of the public, the thing in question would not be considered an economic good, and no price would be paid for it. [The interplay between perceived need and therefore demand and available supply determines price and gives guidance to the free market, especially entrepreneurs, regarding future need-demand and future investment-supply.]" - Ludwig von Mises
[1881 – 1973], an Austrian-American economist, historian, philosopher, author, and classical liberal who had a significant influence on the modern free-market libertarian movement and the Austrian School of economics. Refer the website [ mises.org ].
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[Quote No.41063] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Speculation anticipates future price changes; its economic function consists in evening out price differences between different places and different points in time and, through the pressure which prices exert on production and consumption, in adapting stocks [inventories - supply] and demands to each other." - Ludwig von Mises
[1881 – 1973], an Austrian-American economist, historian, philosopher, author, and classical liberal who had a significant influence on the modern free-market libertarian movement and the Austrian School of economics. Refer the website [ mises.org ].
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[Quote No.41075] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The value of time, i.e., time preference or the higher valuation of want-satisfaction in nearer periods of the future as against that in remoter periods, is an essential element in human action. It determines every choice and every action. [It is therefore a factor in calculating the interest rate a normal person would want to gain in order to defer the use of their money in the present until a future time, for example with a bond or fixed-term investment. It also explains why some people, without the required money, would be happy to pay more for the present gratification through taking out a loan for the price and the interest over the length of the loan.] " - Ludwig von Mises
[1881 – 1973], an Austrian-American economist, historian, philosopher, author, and classical liberal who had a significant influence on the modern free-market libertarian movement and the Austrian School of economics. Refer the website [ mises.org ].
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[Quote No.41081] Need Area: Money > Invest
"In the universe there is never and nowhere stability and immobility. Change and transformation are essential features of life. Each state of affairs is transient; each age is an age of transition. In human life there is never calm and repose. Life is a process, not a...status quo... It is certainly true that the necessity of adjusting oneself again and again to changing conditions is onerous. But change is the essence of life. In an unhampered market economy the absence of security, i.e., the absence of protection for vested interests, is the principle that makes for a steady improvement in material well-being... In the living world there is always change. Every age is an age of transition... One of the fundamental conditions of man’s existence and action is the fact that he does not know what will happen in the future... What a man can say about the future is always merely speculative anticipation." - Ludwig von Mises
[1881 – 1973], an Austrian-American economist, historian, philosopher, author, and classical liberal who had a significant influence on the modern free-market libertarian movement and the Austrian School of economics. Refer the website [ mises.org ].
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[Quote No.41104] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Interest is the difference in the valuation of present goods and future goods; it is the discount in the valuation of future goods as against that of present goods." - Ludwig von Mises
[1881 – 1973], an Austrian-American economist, historian, philosopher, author, and classical liberal who had a significant influence on the modern free-market libertarian movement and the Austrian School of economics. Refer the website [ mises.org ].
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[Quote No.41115] Need Area: Money > Invest
"No income can be made safe against changes not adequately foreseen." - Ludwig von Mises
[1881 – 1973], an Austrian-American economist, historian, philosopher, author, and classical liberal who had a significant influence on the modern free-market libertarian movement and the Austrian School of economics. Refer the website [ mises.org ].
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[Quote No.41119] Need Area: Money > Invest
"In capitalist enterprise [including investing] there is no secure income and no security of wealth." - Ludwig von Mises
[1881 – 1973], an Austrian-American economist, historian, philosopher, author, and classical liberal who had a significant influence on the modern free-market libertarian movement and the Austrian School of economics. Refer the website [ mises.org ].
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[Quote No.41134] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Higher oil prices are a tax on business and consumers. This usually creates higher inflation, and therefore often higher short-term interest rates, with a lag of about 4-6 months, just when people have fewer disposable dollars, so consumer spending falls, reducing manufacturing orders and production, and eventually retail and manufacturing employment and GDP resulting in falling share markets and economic recession." - Seymour@imagi-natives.com

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[Quote No.41139] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Anyone who says they know what any market or company share price will do is mistaken. It is natural to develop a reasoned position regarding direction but understand that even if you are right that doesn't mean your timing will be right. One of the advantages of technical, chart trading is that the trader appreciates their limitations and thereby stays humble and just follows where the market is going for as long as there is a profitable trend or swing trade. Combined with value investing's 'waiting till the company's shares are undervalued', increases the trader's margin of safety and probably the percentage of winning trades over time. That is not to say that stop losses are not necessary. They are. The major danger then comes from a string of small losses for example from being 'whipsawed' in and out of positions." - Seymour@imagi-natives.com

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[Quote No.41170] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[There is a saying in American and global share investing, 'Sell in May and go away, but return by Labor Day (the first Monday in September)'. Now if these funds come from the bond market, as well as other markets, bonds should fall in demand and price and therefore rise in yield during that same period. This is in fact the case.] Seasonally, interest rates are usually at their yearly highs between late February and mid May. In fact, in fourteen of the last twenty years the thirty-year Treasury bond yield [the most demand sensitive of the US Bonds] has peaked in the first half of the year. [This reinforces the usefulness and importance for invesors of monitoring not just the equity markets but also the bond markets, not forgetting the currency and commodity markets, as done in fundamental and technical-chart intermarket analysis. In this way there are more price signals to indicate and support the movement of investment money within the economy and therefore give investors trying to anticipate the markets greater insight.]" - Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington
Both work as analysts for the Hoisington Investment Management Company. Published in the 'Hoisington First-Quarter Review and Outlook', April, 2012.
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[Quote No.41229] Need Area: Money > Invest
"I prefer to see myself as the Janus, the two-faced god who is half Pollyanna and half Cassandra..." - Ray Bradbury

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[Quote No.41253] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Prices are important not because money is considered paramount but because prices are a fast and effective conveyor of information through a vast society in which fragmented knowledge must be coordinated." - Thomas Sowell

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[Quote No.41284] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Many a trader or investor in the market is like the bad rider in the following quote:] I sit astride life like a bad rider on a horse. I only owe it to the horse's good nature that I am not thrown off at this very moment." - Ludwig Wittgenstein
20th century German philosopher
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[Quote No.41418] Need Area: Money > Invest
"There are severe limits to the good that the government can do for the economy, but there are almost no limits to the harm it can do." - Milton Friedman
Famous economist, who won the 1976 Nobel Prize for economics.
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[Quote No.41424] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The ratio of coincident to lagging economic indicators, [is] often a better leading indicator than the leading indicator index itself..." - A. Gary Shilling
Respected economist. Quote from his advisory service newsletter, 'Insight', April 2012.
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[Quote No.41545] Need Area: Money > Invest
"As [trend] traders we need to buy strength and sell weakness and quickly get out if the trend turns. " - Boris Schlossberg
BKForexAdvisors.com
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[Quote No.42235] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Chart technicals:] ...Dow Theory, which is often disparaged, but actually holds up nicely in historical data if you make Rhea and Hamilton's writings operational. As a side note on this, from a signal extraction standpoint, you can think of the Transports as carrying a signal about demand and distribution, and the Industrials carrying a signal about production, and both carrying a common signal about more general factors like risk aversion and so forth. From that perspective, the initial weakness we saw in the Transports, coupled with resilience in the Industrials, has been consistent with the buildup of unsold inventories we've seen in recent months. The groaning weakness of both indices in recent weeks - breaking simultaneously below the sideways channel that Hamilton refers to as a 'line' - is a classic Dow Theory sell signal [along with the more conventional sell signal of new industrial highs not being matched by new transport highs]. " - John P. Hussman
Hussman Funds, Weekly Market Commentary, May 21, 2012. [http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc120521.htm ]
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[Quote No.42265] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The letters IPO in investing are supposed to mean Initial Public Offering of shares in a company going public for the first time. Unfortunately often it should really stand for] ...'It's probably overpriced.' Truthfully, the initial public offering process is built and managed to give a predictable pop on opening day, which results in an equally predictable fallback later, which is why chasing after any initial public offering is the Stupid Investment of the Week." - Chuck Jaffe
Quote from his article, ‘IPO stands for ‘it’s probably overpriced’ - One big lesson from Facebook: Don’t buy new stocks', published on MarketWatch May 23, 2012. [http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ipo-stands-for-its-probably-overpriced-2012-05-23?siteid=nwhwk ]
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[Quote No.42266] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Silver prices generally move in sympathy with gold prices, but silver tends to be more volatile than gold, and thus it tends to attract the 'hot money'. I like to say that it helps to think of gold as the dog, and silver is the tail of the dog. The tail is going to go wherever the dog goes, but it will follow along much more excitedly." - Tom McClellan
Editor of 'The McClellan Market Report'.
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[Quote No.42269] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[When all are greedy - sell high to crystallise profits and gather cash and then when all are fearful - buy low to put that cash to work, remembering] Cash combined with courage in a crisis is priceless." - Warren Buffett
Famous value investor and one of the richest people in the world.
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[Quote No.42376] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Neither a man nor a crowd nor a nation can be trusted to act humanely or to think sanely under the influence of a great fear!" - Bertrand Russell

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[Quote No.42380] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Why do we get boom and bust business cycles? In a nut-shell because of excessive credit at too low rates, that encourages malinvestment, according to the Austrian economic school. Now why does that happen? Because...] Under a fiat money standard, governments (or their central banks) may obligate themselves to bail out, with increased issues of standard money, any bank or any major bank in distress. In the late nineteenth century, the principle became accepted that the central bank must act as the 'lender of last resort,' which will lend money freely to banks threatened with failure. Another recent American device to abolish the confidence limitation on bank credit is 'deposit insurance,' whereby the government guarantees to furnish paper money to redeem the banks' demand liabilities. These and similar devices remove the market brakes on rampant credit expansion." - Murray Rothbard
American economist and libertarian social philosopher. Quote from his book, 'Man, Economy, and State', published 1962.
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[Quote No.42507] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Traditionally, weaker job advertising [softening in labour demand] has been a reliable lead indicator of both lower interest rates and rising unemployment. [Note - rising unemployment threatens mortgage payments and therefore house demand and prices as well as household disposable income and therefore lending and retail spending.]" - Ivan Colhoun
ANZ (Australian and New Zealand bank) chief economist - head of Australian economics and property research. [http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Job-ads-fall-again-in-May-ANZ-pd20120604-UX3GD?opendocument&src=rss ]
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Imagi-Natives'
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