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  Quotations - Invest  
[Quote No.45759] Need Area: Money > Invest
"During the time of the [Communist] Soviet Union the role of the state in economy was made absolute [with no free market], which eventually lead to the total non-competitiveness of the economy. That lesson cost us very dearly. I am sure nobody would want history to repeat itself. We should also be aware that for during the last months [in the middle of the share market and economic bust, sometimes called the Great Recession or the Global Financial Crisis], we have been witnessing the washout of the entrepreneurship spirit. That includes the principle of the personal responsibility -- of a businessman, an investor or a share-holder -- for his or her own decisions. There are no grounds to suggest that by putting the responsibility over to the state, one can achieve better results. Another thing -- handling crisis must not turn into financial populism, into rejecting a responsible macro-economic policy. Unreasonable [government] expansion of the budget deficit, accumulation of the national debt [as per the theories of extreme Keynesian stimulus] -- are as destructive as an adventurous stock market game." - Vladimir Putin
Russian politician who has been the President of Russia since 7 May 2012. Putin previously served as President from 2000 to 2008, and as Prime Minister of Russia from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012. Quote from his key-note speech, Davos World Economic Forum, 28 January, 2009.
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[Quote No.45768] Need Area: Money > Invest
"It's better to do nothing with your money than something you don't understand." - Suze Orman

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[Quote No.45789] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The longer a trading range goes in 'time', the bigger the ensuing breakout is when the trading range comes to an end." - An old rule in technical analysis

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[Quote No.45790] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The most dangerous thing anyone can do [in investing, economics and business] is extrapolate the most recent experience, as enduring as it may seem, into the future [too far]." - David Rosenberg
Gluskin Sheff's chief economist and investment strategist.
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[Quote No.45791] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The difference of opinion between Wall Street and Main Street is growing as equities soar but growth stalls: The stock market and the economy have always maintained a tenuous link. Equities are prone to periods of extreme fear and greed, pulling valuations around what the economic fundamentals suggest is 'fair value' [influenced by the relative earnings yield of bonds and equities]. It gets really bad near major turning points, such as the exuberance and the 'subprime is contained' falsehoods of 2007 [as interest rates rose before the 2008 bust] to the terror and 'the bailouts won't work' panic of 2009 [as rates continued falling, with massive central bank liquidity injections, just before a new bull market began]. I think we're seeing another turnaround point right now [January, 2013] as the major [share market] averages go vertical and gauges of investor sentiment reach levels not seen since the 2000 dot-com bubble; even as the economy, by some measures, shows signs of falling back into recession." - Anthony Mirhaydari
He runs an investment newsletter, 'the Edge', and a money management service, Mirhaydari Capital Management. [http://money.msn.com/top-stocks/post.aspx?post=ac4c2771-0d57-4022-9cc3-79e8a1115521 ]
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[Quote No.45794] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Being fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others arew fearful is not easy.] Even the intelligent investor is likely to need considerable will power to keep from following the crowd." - Benjamin Graham
Famous investor, who's considered the 'Father of Value Investing'.
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[Quote No.45795] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Our defensiveness is certainly uncomfortable here [as the share market rises and we don't buy more and in fact are selling at what we believe is near the top], but in my view, the primary risk of investors is the intolerance of missed gains in a mature ['toppy'] bull market, impatience with a defensive position, and capitulating against both discipline and evidence." - John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
Fund manager for Hussman funds. [http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130128.htm ]
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[Quote No.45796] Need Area: Money > Invest
"In the 30 plus years I have watched, I have never seen a consensus of economists correctly forecast a recession before it started. Economists in positions of authority, particularly at the Federal Reserve and in a President's administration, virtually never publicly forecast a recession, perhaps out of concern it would be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Economists on Wall Street rarely predict recessions, perhaps because it reduces their firm's effectiveness in selling product. Wall Street economists, who predict recessions, even if they are correct, often find themselves unemployed." - John Early
Economist and financial advisor. [http://seekingalpha.com/article/1148851-why-economists-don-t-see-the-coming-recession-and-popping-stock-bubble?source=google_news ]
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[Quote No.45906] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Monetarily Indicators - ‘Don’t fight the Fed’: In the stock market, as with horse racing, money makes the mare go. Monetary conditions exert an enormous influence on stock prices. Indeed, the monetary climate — primarily the trend in interest rates and Federal Reserve policy — is the dominant factor in determining the stock market’s major direction [the ‘stock market cycle’ that precedes the ‘business and economic cycle’]. Once established, the trend typically lasts from one to three years. Combining to produce a monetary ‘climate’ are loan demand in the economy, liquidity in the banking system, inflation or deflation and of course, policy decisions by the Federal Reserve Board [central bank = ‘the Fed’]. These are the major factors that create a trend in interest rates. Generally a rising trend in rates is bearish for stocks [shares]; a falling trend is bullish. Let’s see why. First, falling interest rates [allow consumers to have more disposable income left after paying for their existing loans and so borrow more or if they decide to use that money to invest then the lower rates] reduce the competition on stocks from other investments, especially short-term instruments such as Treasury bills, certificates of deposit [CD], or money market funds. For example, when an investor sees yields on CDs drop from, say, 7% to 3%, he becomes a lot less enthusiastic about ‘rolling over’ his CDs and reinvesting them. The newer and lower yields just aren’t as good. Stocks begin to look more attractive. Obviously, the reverse is true when interest rates rise. Second, when interest rates fall, it costs corporations less to borrow. That reduces a major expense, especially for companies that are heavy borrowers such as airlines, public utilities, or savings and loans [banks]. As expenses fall, profits rise. Wall Street loves the idea that future earnings will go up. So, as interest rates drop, investors tend to bid prices higher, partly on the expectation of better earnings. The opposite effect occurs when interest rates rise. [Thirdly, when interest rates fall, investors in shares become more enthusiastic because one of the most widely used methods for valuing shares is the discounted cash flow method and as interest rates fall, especially on the long end but also on the short end, the value of the future cash is discounted less and so the ‘fair value’ goes up. Investors also with the same amount of cash can afford to ‘borrow, control and use’ more shares by borrowing more on their margin accounts. and sophisticated investors borrow more from lower interest to invest in higher interest countries in what is called the ‘carry trade.’]" - Martin Zweig
‘Winning On Wall Street’ page 42-3.
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[Quote No.45922] Need Area: Money > Invest
"One of the general rules of the stock market is that things will get as good (or bad) as they can get, then [it is time to be alert and cautious as] prices will start moving in the other direction. This is another way of describing 'regression to the mean' [- like a pedulum or as the legendary value investor, Warren Buffett, would say 'Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.'] This is the reason that we technicians [technical chart investors] have our indicators — so that we can get an idea when conditions have reached extremes [over-bought from greed or over-sold from fear] that could cause prices to start moving in the opposite direction [as all those who are going to buy or sell have already acted]. One of the indicators I like is the Percent of PMOs (Price Momentum Oscillators) Above Zero because it is smoother and has less noise than other intermediate-term indicators. [Just to make this indicator hard to read there are also times when the market can stay at extreme levels longer than expected especially when a market is changing trend from up to down or vice versa.]" - Carl Swenlin
Decision Point [http://pragcap.com/technical-perspective-a-very-overbought-market ]
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[Quote No.45927] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Stay long until proven wrong!" - Share trader maxim

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[Quote No.45950] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Why is GDP growth of below 2 per cent per annum level usually an indicator an economy will go into a recession more often than not? Because economic growth below this keeps unemployment rising]...reflecting 'Okun’s Law' that economic growth needs to exceed the sum of population and productivity growth for unemployment to fall..." - Steve Keen
Australian economist [http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/UK-GDP-growth-markets-recession-debt-pd20130204-4KMTS?OpenDocument&src=sph ]
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[Quote No.45951] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Normally gold and crude [gold/oil prices] move together. A divergence would be highlighted by the gold-oil ratio... A decline to 10 is normally taken as buying signal [while rise to 20 is taken as a sell signal], but in recent years fluctuations have been a lot narrower — between 12 and 18." - Colin Twiggs
of incrediblecharts.com
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[Quote No.45956] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Market sentiment extremes:] One of the most respected maxims on trading floors is that bull markets end on good news and bear markets on bad news. In simpler terms, that somewhat counterintuitive observation means a run higher stops when the market no longer reacts positively to good news [as all those who are going to buy have bought so only potential profit taking sellers left], while a run lower halts when the market no longer falls on bad news [as all those who are going to sell or sell short have sold so only potential long buyers and profit-taking short-sellers left]. Lately, the news has been mostly good, if only marginally so. The worst of the fiscal battles in Washington have abated for the moment, and companies have managed to beat sharply lowered earnings expectations. The European debt crisis is on the back burner, and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have quieted. Still, any one of those substantial market headwinds could start blowing again on a moment's notice, worrying some that the current rally is heading for trouble. 'We are reaching capitulation levels, [where the bears- short selling bears can't psychologically and financially take the loss as prices rise and doubt themselves and their investment thesis as the saying goes 'markets can stay irrationally exuberrant longer than expected]' said Walter Zimmerman, senior technical analyst at United-ICAP. 'What troubles me is there's never been a happy ending from that combination of extreme complacency.' Indeed, many of the metrics that gauge market sentiment are in startling territory. The CBOE Volatility Index, an options measure of market fear, is around the 12.5 range. The VIX [the fear-greed gauge'], as it is called, has only traded below 14 about 21 percent of the time in its 21-year history and has closed below 10 just nine times in nearly 6,000 trading days, according to Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at ConvergEx. 'The bottom line here is that at current levels you must – repeat MUST – believe that macro concerns (Euro, debt ceiling, China, whatever used to keep you up at night) are no longer an existential threat to either the global economy or to corporate earnings,' Colas wrote in a recent volatility analysis. 'And if you cannot get your head around that benign scenario, you must – repeat MUST – treat current equity prices with real caution.' Market professionals, as measured by the Investors Intelligence survey of investors newsletters, are bullish by a 53.2 percent to 22.3 percent margin, the largest spread in four months. The last time the gap was this big preceded a 7 percent market drop in a month, which in turn preceded the current rally. Hedge fund titans David Tepper and John Paulson separately made strongly bullish statements this week, while mutual fund flows also have changed direction, with equity mutual funds taking in $3.8 billion last week. Finally, the more than 470 days the market has gone without a correction - or 10 percent market drop - marks the 10th longest such streak in market history and the best run since the record 2,553 days that lasted from 1990-97. Three-quarters of the Standard & Poor's 500 stocks are in overbought territory, according to Bespoke Investment Group. 'If the market keeps moving higher, not worrying about anything, it's going to be difficult for the bulls,' said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Annuity. 'The market's not climbing a wall of worry - it's not worrying about anything [Greed and 'FOMO - fear of missing out' is rampant]. Typically when that happens something will come along to pull it back.' That, of course, is easy to say, and it's easier still to predict that at some point the rally will get thwarted. How long that will take and at what point investors ought to pull some cash off the table is much more difficult to forecast, made all the harder because the bears are fighting the indomitable Federal Reserve and its money printers. The Fed has injected nearly $3 trillion in liquidity already and is promising another $85 billion a month until it deems the economy safe enough to run on its own. So this earnings season is treated as good news, even though fully 70 percent of all companies on the S&P 500 have lowered their first-quarter outlooks, and fourth-quarter profit is a paltry 3 percent against expectations of 11 percent just a few months ago. It all comes down to another time-honored Wall Street maxim: Don't fight the tape. 'When everyone jumps in and valuations get frothy, that usually is the beginning of the end of a bull run,' Krosby said. 'You can't fight the tape [especially as traders have the saying 'let your winners ride', 'stay long until wrong', 'don't try to pick tops or bottoms'], but you want to be more cautious. The higher it goes, the more cautious you want to be.' " - Jeff Cox
CNBC.com Staff Writer - 'Bears on the Brink: 'I Can't Fight It Anymore', published: Wednesday, 23 Jan 2013, with the S&P 500 at 1521.44.
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[Quote No.45959] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Inverted Yield Curves and Economic Downturns:] ... Summary: This dissertation addresses the question of why the [US 3month-10yr] yield curve tends to invert one year before a recession... The credit injection has two consequences: the Wicksell effect and the Fisher effect. As the new money enters the system, the yield curve steepens—short rates fall while long rates remain stable. A comparison is made between the effects of the monetary injection and the process of monetary intermediation. The result of the injection of short-term working capital into the economy is a malinvestment boom. The analysis demonstrates that both short-term and long-term malinvestments emerge. The short-term malinvestments emerge with the artificial [central bank rather than true free market] lowering of the short rates [due to the population's true money-time preference]. Many long-term individual projects become malinvestments as the Wicksell effect prevents long rates from rising. Furthermore, the model adopts the highly restrictive assumption that these short- and long-term projects may develop across the entire social structure of production. This dissertation shows that a malinvestment boom occurs in the early stages of production even when the restrictive assumption is used. The malinvestment boom is an unsustainable state. There is an insufficient supply of savings to support the malinvestments built up during the boom. The resulting crunch comes about as a credit crunch, a real resource crunch, or a combination of the two. Each of these scenarios leads to an inverted yield curve approximately one year before the economic downturn. The credit crunch occurs when the monetary authority’s fear of inflation [exceeds their fear of unemployment] leads it to cut back on the rate of monetary growth [to deliberately slow demand and therefore lower inflation]. The real resource crunch may occur in conjunction with a credit crunch or it may be an independent reason for the downturn. A real resource crunch develops because the amounts of resources are insufficient to complete and maintain the malinvestment projects. During the boom phase, the monetary injections drive all prices higher. However, toward the end of the boom, input prices rise [input inflation] faster than output prices [output inflation]. When the monetary authority tightens monetary policy [reduces money growth thereby driving up short-term interest rates], a credit crunch develops. Firms without investment-grade bonds scramble for financial capital to complete their projects. As a consequence, short-term rates are driven up. The yield curve inverts with short rates rising and long rates remaining stable. At the short-end of the yield curve, the Wicksell effect dominates the Fisher effect; while at the long-end, the two effects negate each other. Those firms who are unable to obtain the funds at these higher rates are forced to liquidate. Thus, the yield curve tends to invert before the upper-turning point of an economic downturn. Empirical evidence of the recessions caused by the credit crunch (1953-4, 1957-8, 1960-1, 1969-70, 1973-5, 1981-2, and 2001) is presented and explained. While the credit crunch scenario is the most common course of a business cycle, the downturns of 1969-70, 1980 and 1990-1 are the result of real resource crunches. Even when the monetary authorities engage in policies of monetary expansion, the total amount of stable investment is limited at any one point in time by the level of savings in the economy. Thus as input prices rise, even with a lax monetary policy, entrepreneurs (particularly smaller firms) must scramble for resources to complete and maintain their projects. As a result, there is an upward pressure on the price of short-term credit and the yield curve inverts. As firms fail and liquidate, the yield curve’s shape returns to normal. However, this liquidation process brings real losses to both the financial sector and the productive sector. The losses in the financial sector reduce the amount of loans made and the effects on production materialize six to nine months later. Thus, this model accounts for the timing issue of why the yield curve tends to invert one year before a recession." - Dr Paul Cwik
Professor of Economics and Finance at Mount Olive College, North Carolina, USA. Quote from his doctoral thesis, 'An Investigation of Inverted Yield Curves and Economic Downturns'. [refer http://mises.org/document/1117/An-Investigation-of-Inverted-Yield-Curves-and-Economic-Downturns ]
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[Quote No.45980] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Excess generally causes reaction, and produces a change in the opposite direction ['reversion to the mean'], whether it be in the seasons, or in individuals, or in governments." - Plato

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[Quote No.45990] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Never ignore a gut feeling [intuition], but never believe that it's enough!" - Robert Heller

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[Quote No.45992] Need Area: Money > Invest
"People generally see what they look for and hear what they listen for." - Harper Lee
Quote from her book, 'To Kill A Mockingbird'.
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[Quote No.45999] Need Area: Money > Invest
"If you want more money, don't pay attention to the money. Pay attention to the thing that makes the money!" - Brandon Steiner

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[Quote No.46006] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Trying to anticipate and prepare for the worst, then expecting the best, is a necessary risk management skill, because...] The blow you can't see coming is the blow that knocks you out." - Joyce Carol Oates

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[Quote No.46016] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Share market cycle moves within secular bull and bear markets and guestimating expected returns:] ...Unfortunately, secular bull markets do not begin simply because stocks have gone nowhere for a long while or because the market breaches some trendline. They begin at the point that valuations become so depressed - again, about 7 on the Shiller P/E - that strong and sustained long-term returns are baked in the cake. Similarly, secular bears tend to begin at the point where valuations are so extreme - about 24 or higher on a Shiller P/E - that weak and ephemeral long-term returns are baked in the cake. The intervening secular moves simply take the market from one extreme to another over the course of something on the order of 15-20 years. We can show this with basic arithmetic. Historically, nominal GDP growth, corporate revenues, and even cyclically-adjusted earnings (filtering out short-run variations in profit margins) have grown at about 6% annually over time. Excluding the bubble period since mid-1995, the average historical Shiller P/E has actually been less than 15. Therefore, it is simple to estimate the 10-year market return by combining three components: 6% growth in fundamentals, reversion in the Shiller P/E toward 15 over a 10-year period, and the current dividend yield. It’s not an ideal model of 10-year returns, but it’s as simple as one should get, and it still has a correlation of more than 80% with actual subsequent total returns for the S&P 500: ===== Shorthand 10-year total return estimate = 1.06 * (15/ShillerPE)^(1/10) – 1 + dividend yield(decimal) ===== For example, at the 1942 market low, the Shiller P/E was 7.5 and the dividend yield was 8.7%. The shorthand estimate of 10-year nominal returns works out to 1.06*(15/7.5)^(1/10)-1+.087 = 22% annually. In fact, the S&P 500 went on to achieve a total return over the following decade of about 23% annually. Conversely, at the 1965 valuation peak that is typically used to mark the beginning of the 1965-1982 secular bear market, the Shiller P/E reached 24, with a dividend yield of 2.9%. The shorthand 10-year return estimate would be 1.06*(15/24)^(1/10)+.029 = 4%, which was followed by an actual 10-year total return on the S&P 500 of ... 4%. Let’s keep this up. At the 1982 secular bear low, the Shiller P/E was 6.5 and the dividend yield was 6.6%. The shorthand estimate of 10-year returns works out to 22%, which was followed by an actual 10-year total return on the S&P 500 of ... 22%. Not every point works out so precisely, but hopefully the relationship between valuations and subsequent returns is clear. Now take the 2000 secular bull market peak. The Shiller P/E reached a stunning 43, with a dividend yield of just 1.1%. The shorthand estimate of 10-year returns would have been -3% at the time, and anybody suggesting a negative return on stocks over the decade ahead would have been mercilessly ridiculed (ah, memories). But that’s exactly what investors experienced. The problem today [February 2013] is that the recent half-cycle has taken valuations back to historically rich levels. Presently, the Shiller P/E is 22.7, with a dividend yield of 2.2%. Do the math. A plausible, and historically reliable estimate of 10-year nominal total returns here works out to only 1.06*(15/22.7)^(.10)-1+.022 = 3.9% annually, which is roughly the same estimate that we obtain from a much more robust set of fundamental measures and methods. Simply put, secular bull markets begin at valuations that are associated with subsequent 10-year market returns near 20% annually. By contrast, secular bear markets begin at valuations like we observe at present. It may seem implausible that stocks could have gone this long with near-zero returns, and yet still be at valuations where other secular bear markets have started – but that is the unfortunate result of the extreme valuations that stocks achieved in 2000. It is lunacy to view those extreme valuations as some benchmark that should be recovered before investors need to worry." - John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
Investment strategist for Hussman Funds. Quote from 'The Siren's Song of the Unfinished Half-Cycle', February 18, 2013. [http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130218.htm ]
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[Quote No.46017] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Gains make us exuberant; they enhance well-being and promote optimism. Losses bring sadness, disgust, fear, regret. Fear increases the sense of risk and some react by shunning stocks. [The average individual investor without a way to value shares tends just to extrapolate from recent price behavior and therefore is most bullish at market tops and most bearish at market bottoms. This is due to the investor’s emotional biases of 'greed' when markets are rising and 'fear' when markets are falling. Logic would dictate that the best time to invest is after a massive selloff – expecting a reversion to the mean company performance and price - unfortunately this is exactly the opposite of what average investors do. Brilliant investors learn the self-discipline to follow Warren Buffett's dictum, 'Buy when people are fearful and sell when they are greedy' if the company and its prospects are not permanently impaired.]" - Meir Statman
Santa Clara University finance professor, who has studied investor behavior.
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[Quote No.46018] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names. Breadth is important. A rally on narrow breadth indicates limited participation and the chances of failure are above average. The market cannot continue to rally with just a few large-caps (generals) leading the way. Small and mid-caps (troops) must also be on board to give the rally credibility. A rally that 'lifts all boats' indicates far-reaching strength and increases the chances of further gains." - Lance Roberts
From StreetTalk Advisors [http://pragcap.com/visualizing-bob-farrells-10-investing-rules ]
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[Quote No.46019] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Bear markets have three stages – sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend. Bear markets often start with a sharp and swift decline. After this decline, there is an oversold bounce that retraces a portion of that decline. The longer term decline then continues, at a slower and more grinding pace, as the fundamentals deteriorate. Dow Theory suggests that bear markets consists of three down legs with reflexive rebounds in between." - Lance Roberts
From StreetTalk Advisors [http://pragcap.com/visualizing-bob-farrells-10-investing-rules ]
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[Quote No.46020] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Sentiment extremes signify a reversal of trend or at least a correction because...] If everybody’s optimistic, who is left to buy? If everybody’s pessimistic, who’s left to sell?" - Sam Stovall
the investment strategist for Standard & Poor’s.
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[Quote No.46021] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Resisting [and going against the crowd when sentiment reaches extremes and all optimists have bought in a bull run or all pessimists have sold in a bear market] – and thereby achieving success as a contrarian [investor] – isn’t easy. Things combine to make it difficult; including natural herd tendencies and the pain imposed by being out of step, since momentum invariably makes pro-cyclical actions look correct for a while. (That’s why it’s essential to remember that 'being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong.') Given the uncertain nature of the future, and thus the difficulty of being confident your position is the right one – especially as price moves against you – it’s [both emotionally and financially] challenging to be a lonely contrarian." - Howard Marks
Billionaire investor with Oaktree Capital Management.
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[Quote No.46022] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[In a bull market technical investors like to buy the dips, saying...] you have to bend down before you can jump up!" - Trader's saying

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[Quote No.46024] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Managing risk:] In acting upon our beliefs, we should be very cautious where a small error would mean disaster." - Bertrand Russell
British philosopher, mathematician, historian, and social critic.
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[Quote No.46068] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Fiscal and Monetary Policy during recessions: Although President Roosevelt invested in massive public works projects under the New Deal starting in 1933, almost four years into the Great Depression, the U.S. government maintained a policy of attempting to balance the budget as the depression raged on. Keynes’s response was...] The boom, not the slump, is the right time for austerity at the Treasury." - John Maynard Keynes
(1883—1946) British economist and the chief architect of contemporary macroeconomic theory.
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[Quote No.46128] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Profits can be made safely only when the opportunity is available and not just because they happen to be desired or needed." - Gerald Loeb

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[Quote No.46129] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Willingness and ability to hold funds uninvested while awaiting real opportunities is a key to success in the battle for investment survival." - Gerald Loeb

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[Quote No.46130] Need Area: Money > Invest
"In addition to many other contributing factors of inflation or deflation, a very great factor is the psychological. The fact that people think prices are going to advance or decline very much contributes to their movement, and the very momentum of the trend itself tends to perpetuate itself...One useful fact to remember is that the most important indications are made in the early stages of a broad market move. Nine times out of ten the leaders of an advance are the stocks that make new highs ahead of the averages." - Gerald Loeb

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[Quote No.46131] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Don’t trust your own opinion and back your judgment until the action of the market itself confirms your opinion." - Jesse Livermore

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[Quote No.46132] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The human side of every person is the greatest enemy of the average investor or speculator." - Jesse Livermore

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[Quote No.46133] Need Area: Money > Invest
"To trade successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a technician. It is imperative that we understand the fundamentals driving a trade, but also that we understand the market’s technicals. When we do, then, and only then, can we or should we, trade. In bull markets we can only be long or neutral, and in bear markets we can only be short or neutral. That may seem self-evident; it is not, and it is a lesson learned too late by far too many." - Dennis Gartman

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[Quote No.46134] Need Area: Money > Invest
"'Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent,' according to our good friend, Dr. A. Gary Shilling. Illogic often reigns and markets are enormously inefficient despite what the academics believe." - Dennis Gartman

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[Quote No.46135] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Sell markets that show the greatest weakness, and buy those that show the greatest strength. Metaphorically, when bearish, throw your rocks into the wettest paper sack, for they break most readily. In bull markets, we need to ride upon the strongest winds... they shall carry us higher than shall lesser ones." - Dennis Gartman

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[Quote No.46136] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Respect and embrace the very normal 50-62% retracements that take prices back to major trends. If a trade is missed, wait patiently for the market to retrace. Far more often than not, retracements happen... just as we are about to give up hope that they shall not...Establish initial positions on strength in bull markets and on weakness in bear markets. The first 'addition' [pyramiding] should also be added on strength as the market shows the trend to be working. Henceforth, subsequent additions are to be added on retracements...Do more of that which is working and less of that which is not: If a market is strong, buy more; if a market is weak, sell more. New highs are to be bought; new lows sold." - Dennis Gartman

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[Quote No.46137] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Before you buy a security, find out everything you can about the company, its management and competitors, its earnings and possibilities for growth." - Bernard Baruch

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[Quote No.46138] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. This can’t be done — except by liars." - Bernard Baruch

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[Quote No.46139] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Human emotion is a big enemy of the average investor and trader. Be patient and unemotional. There are periods where traders don’t need to trade." - James P. Arthur Huprich

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[Quote No.46140] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Your odds of success improve when you buy stocks when the technical pattern confirms the fundamental opinion." - James P. Arthur Huprich

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[Quote No.46141] Need Area: Money > Invest
"As many participants have come to realize from 1999 to 2010, during which the S&P 500 has made no upside progress, you can lose money even in the 'best companies' if your timing is wrong. Yet, if the technical pattern dictates, you can make money on a short-term basis even in stocks that have a 'mixed' fundamental opinion." - James P. Arthur Huprich

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[Quote No.46142] Need Area: Money > Invest
"To the best of your ability, try to keep your priorities in line. Don’t let the 'greed factor' that Wall Street can generate outweigh other just as important areas of your life. Balance the physical, mental, spiritual, relational, and financial needs of life." - James P. Arthur Huprich

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[Quote No.46143] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Ten QE Questions: Most observers regard unconventional monetary policies such as quantitative easing (QE) as necessary to jump-start growth in today’s anemic economies [2013]. But questions about the effectiveness and risks of QE have begun to multiply as well. In particular, ten potential costs associated with such policies merit attention. First, while a purely 'Austrian' response (that is, austerity) to bursting asset and credit bubbles may lead to a depression, QE policies that postpone the necessary private- and public-sector deleveraging for too long may create an army of zombies: zombie financial institutions, zombie households and firms, and, in the end, zombie governments. So, somewhere between the Austrian and Keynesian extremes, QE needs to be phased out over time. Second, repeated QE may become ineffective over time as the channels of transmission to real economic activity become clogged. The bond channel doesn’t work when bond yields are already low; and the credit channel doesn’t work when banks hoard liquidity and velocity collapses. Indeed, those who can borrow (high-grade firms and prime households) don’t want or need to, while those who need to – highly leveraged firms and non-prime households – can’t, owing to the credit crunch. Moreover, the stock-market channel leading to asset reflation following QE works only in the short run if growth fails to recover. And the reduction in real interest rates via a rise in expected inflation when open-ended QE is implemented risks eventually stoking inflation expectations. Third, the foreign-exchange channel of QE transmission – the currency weakening implied by monetary easing – is ineffective if several major central banks pursue QE at the same time. When that happens, QE becomes a zero-sum game, because not all currencies can fall, and not all trade balances can improve, simultaneously. The outcome, then, is 'QE wars' as proxies for 'currency wars' [and 'trade wars', which made the 1930's Great Depression so bad and long lasting]. Fourth, QE in advanced economies leads to excessive capital flows to emerging markets, which face a difficult policy challenge. Sterilized foreign-exchange intervention keeps domestic interest rates high and feeds the inflows. But unsterilized intervention and/or reducing domestic interest rates creates excessive liquidity that can feed domestic inflation and/or asset and credit bubbles. At the same time, forgoing intervention and allowing the currency to appreciate erodes external competitiveness, leading to dangerous external deficits. Yet imposing capital controls on inflows is difficult and sometimes leaky. Macroprudential controls on credit growth are useful, but sometimes ineffective in stopping asset bubbles when low interest rates continue to underpin generous liquidity conditions. Fifth, persistent QE can lead to asset bubbles both where it is implemented and in countries where it spills over. Such bubbles can occur in equity markets, housing markets (Hong Kong, Singapore), commodity markets, bond markets (with talk of a bubble increasing in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Japan), and credit markets (where spreads in some emerging markets, and on high-yield and high-grade corporate debt, are narrowing excessively). Although QE may be justified by weak economic and growth fundamentals, keeping rates too low for too long can eventually feed such bubbles. That is what happened in 2000-2006, when the US Federal Reserve aggressively cut the federal funds rate to 1% during the 2001 recession and subsequent weak recovery and then kept rates down, thus fueling credit/housing/subprime bubbles. Sixth, QE can create moral-hazard problems by weakening governments’ incentive to pursue needed economic reforms. It may also delay needed fiscal austerity if large deficits are monetized, and, by keeping rates too low, prevent the market from imposing discipline. Seventh, exiting QE is tricky. If exit occurs too slowly and too late, inflation and/or asset/credit bubbles could result. Also, if exit occurs by selling the long-term assets purchased during QE, a sharp increase in interest rates might choke off recovery, resulting in large financial losses for holders of long-term bonds. And, if the exit occurs via a rise in the interest rate on excess reserves (to sterilize the effect of a base-money overhang on credit growth), the ensuing losses for central banks’ balance sheets could be significant. Eighth, an extended period of negative real interest rates implies a redistribution of income and wealth from creditors and savers toward debtors and borrowers. Of all the forms of adjustment that can lead to deleveraging (growth, savings, orderly debt restructuring, or taxation of wealth), debt monetization (and eventually higher inflation) is the least democratic, and it seriously damages savers and creditors, including pensioners and pension funds. Ninth, QE and other unconventional monetary policies can have serious unintended consequences. Eventually, excessive inflation may erupt, or credit growth may slow, rather than accelerate, if banks – faced with very low net interest-rate margins – decide that risk relative to reward is insufficient. Finally, there is a risk of losing sight of any road back to conventional monetary policies. Indeed, some countries are ditching their inflation-targeting regime and moving into uncharted territory, where there may be no anchor for price expectations. The US has moved from QE1 to QE2 and now to QE3, which is potentially unlimited and linked to an unemployment target. Officials are now actively discussing the merit of negative policy rates. And policymakers have moved to a risky credit-easing policy as QE’s effectiveness has waned. In short, policies are becoming more unconventional, not less, with little clarity about short-term effects, unintended consequences, and long-term impacts. To be sure, QE and other unconventional monetary policies do have important short-term benefits. But if such policies remain in place for too long, their side effects could be severe – and the longer-term costs very high." - Nouriel Roubini
Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House's Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank. Published in Project Syndicate, Feb. 28, 2013. [http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-risks-and-costs-of-quantitative-easing-by-nouriel-roubini#ElCOMDWSzZTzpo55.99 ]
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[Quote No.46145] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[It is wise and useful to become a contrarian when sentiment becomes extreme - that is when investors become either overly optimistic/greedy/irrationally exuberant or overly pessimistic/fearful/irrationally despondent:] Markets exist as a place where capital, investors and investments intersect in the form of securities. It is where the buying and selling of debt and equity occurs. Those with capital can invest in or lend to those who can put it to better potential long-term use, be they start ups or existing companies or governments. Media is a business form that creates content, which then attracts an audience. Media then monetizes that primarily by selling access to this audience to its advertisers. Neither of these entities is any stranger to irrationality. While noth have a profit motive, they each go about pursuing it in very different ways. At Market tops and bottoms, the collective pricing of its wares becomes absurd. In 1982, stocks traded at an 8 P/E. In 2000, they traded at 32 P/E. On the eve of crisis in October 2007, stocks were priced as if all was fine. In March 2009, stocks were priced as if governments and the Federal Reserve were going to do nothing. History teaches us that the human elements of markets all too regularly spiral into spasms of mass delusion. Media has a somewhat differing approach to embracing irrationality — with a different level of background foolishness. Hype is the watchword, and the media can take a relatively modest issue and blow it up far beyond reasonable proportions. Think back to Y2K as an example of relentless media silliness and fear mongering. The world was going to come to a stop on December 31st, 1999 when the clocks rolled over. (Nothing happened). This past December, the Fiscal Cliff was going to be yet another disaster. Again, you should have ignored the hype... With Markets, the irrational behavior is a bug. Smarter, more experienced investors are aware of this all-too-human behavior. It creates opportunities, but is wildly disruptive. When markets become irrational, a majority of its participants suffer. Entire schools of thought have arisen to study irrational behavior of financial actors (i.e., Behavioral Economics and Neurofinance). It is not considered an advantage when markets spiral into their regular fits of irrationality. With Media, irrational behavior is a feature, not a bug. The goal is to attract a large audience that can be monetized with adverts. Hence, there is an incentive to emphasize the outrageous, the ridiculous, to create buzz and hype. An entire subspecialty dedicated to studying memes and viral events has arisen to capitalize on this. It is considered an advantage when media spirals into their regular fits of hype. From a business perspective, 'Irrationality' to organizations that sell audiences to advertisers, is quite a rational behavior. Washington D.C. is the perfect foil for Media. It creates a a false narrative that plays right into their sweet spot. There are the classic elements of narrative conflict: Great stakes, villains and heroes, dramatic personalities, risk and redemption. As previously discussed, the media narrative about the 2012 presidential election — the horse race that was too close to call — was wildly wrong. But it sold boatloads of papers and advertising. It also scared some people into them into some poorly considered decisions. Over the years, I have tried to emphasize how dangerous a compelling narrative can be to investors. This is where the media narrative becomes so dangerous. I don’t want to suggest either is monolithic. Markets consist of buyers and sellers. Media has a spectrum of opinions. Markets produce an investment opinion by the preponderance of actions of its participants. Some press practitioners actually got these things right, and were proven by time to possess insight. But what we are referring to here is the overall actions, the collective impressions each creates. Between the two entities, which are you more likely to believe — the one whose job it is to match buyers and sellers, or the one who is trying to deliver an audience to advertisers?" - Barry Ritholtz
CEO and Director of Equity Research at Fusion IQ, an online quantitative research firm. He is also a financial blogger at The Big Picture. This quote was published on the latter on February 28th, 2013. [http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/02/markets-or-media-which-is-more-irrational/ ]
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[Quote No.46146] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[It is wise and useful to become a contrarian when sentiment becomes extreme - that is when media commentators and investors become either overly optimistic/greedy/irrationally exuberant or overly pessimistic/fearful/irrationally despondent:] ...What should be clear from this is that the members of the financial media are not looking out for your best interests. Nor should we expect them to. In investing we talk about somebody having a fiduciary duty toward another person. This means the person with the fiduciary duty is legally obligated to act in your best interests. The members of the financial media have no such duty. They are there to entertain and [do whatever it takes to get as big an audience for their advertisers as they can, in order to] by extension generate ratings, subscriptions, and page views. In a certain respect, writing about personal finance, like investing itself, should be kind of boring. The principles that underlie sound personal finance practices don’t change all that much. For instance, there are only so many ways you can tell people to save more and spend less. The financial media is compelled to try and make things more interesting than they seem." - Tadas Viskanta
Founder and Editor of Abnormal Returns. Tadas is a private investor with over 20 years of experience in the financial markets. He is the co-author of over a dozen investment-related papers that have appeared in publications like the Financial Analysts Journal, Journal of Portfolio Management among others. Tadas is also the author of the well-received book, 'Abnormal Returns: Winning Strategies from the Frontlines of the Investment Blogosphere' which culls lessons learned from his time blogging. Tadas holds a MBA from the University of Chicago and a BA from Indiana University. This quote was published on www.abnormalreturns, February 28th, 2013. [http://abnormalreturns.com/in-search-of-boring-personal-financial-media/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+abnormalreturns+%28Abnormal+Returns%29 ]
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[Quote No.46148] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Here's some advice about important economic indicators:] There are some indicators which are simply more powerful in their reliability than others, as well as having predictability in shores beyond their own. In my view, the Korean trade data, US job claims, the US ISM report and its new orders and inventory component, the Euro area business and consumer confidence surveys, especially the German IFO, are the key numbers I look for each month. I do find myself often wondering whether one misses something from the Growth Market world, but if you throw in a couple of key Chinese monthly statistics, their monetary data, PMI, trade and monthly retail sales numbers in particular, then you kind of have most of what you need. Then, the rest of time can be spent thinking about policies, both monetary and fiscal, as well as structural and supply side issues, and keeping ones eyes and ears open for all sorts of interesting anecdotes." - Jim O'Neill
the legendary economist from Goldman Sachs who coined the acronym BRICs. [http://www.businessinsider.com/jim-oneill-reliable-economic-indicators-2012-3#ixzz2MJEqR5MJ ]
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[Quote No.46153] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Do your homework well, analyze things carefully, assess the options but eventually trust your judgment and have the courage of your convictions – even if they are unpopular." - Michael Moritz
Chairman of Sequoia Capital
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[Quote No.46165] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[It is wise for investors to be contrarian when sentiment is at extremes and therefore to do the opposite of what most others are doing and what to them feels wrong. Here's the proof:] When individual investors try to time the market they are much more likely to buy and sell at the worst times. Emotionally, investors suffer great pain when pessimism is rampant and stock prices fall. They are more likely to buy when everyone is optimistic and prices are near or at their peak. Behavioral considerations cause investors all too often to shoot themselves in the foot... [According to flow data for the S&P 500 from the Investment Company Institute] when prices are high and returns are good, money tends to flow into equity mutual funds; when prices are low, investors make net withdrawals of funds. In the first quarter of 2000, which coincided with the top of the Internet bubble, more new money was invested in equity mutual funds than ever before. Then in the fourth quarter of 2002, which turned out to be the market bottom after a sharp decline in stock prices, investors pulled large amounts of money out of equity mutual funds. Then, in the third quarter of 2008, during the worst of the recent financial crises when stocks made decade lows, investors redeemed unprecedented amounts of equity mutual funds. Our emotions lead us to sell at bottoms and buy at tops [when to be successful investors we must do the opposite, which is buy low and sell at the top]. Several empirical studies have tried to measure the cost of bad timing decisions. They all agree that investors tend to do much worse than a buy and hold investor who avoided market timing altogether. A well-known study of the so-called 'behavior gap' by Dalbar Associates estimates that it may be as large as 5 to 6 percentage points annually over the past 20 years. Other studies have estimated somewhat smaller gaps, but all of the studies agree that harmful investor behavior is extremely costly. Investors [who do not use their and others' emotions as a contrary guide] are still their own worst enemy." - Burton G. Malkiel
American economist and writer, most famous for his classic finance book 'A Random Walk Down Wall Street', where he states, counter to the beliefs of value investors, his belief in the 'Efficient Market Hypothesis' and investing in Index Funds. Quoted from the article 'Investors’ Most Serious Mistake', in Wealthfront, February 28, 2013. [https://blog.wealthfront.com/top-investor-mistake-time-market/ ]
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