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  Quotations - Invest  
[Quote No.46166] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[The average investor, by waiting until his emotions corroborate his behavior, rather than acting contrary to his emotions - especially when they are at extremes, finds that he always gets to the party just as it is finishing:] When retail investors rush in, the top of intoxication is near, but the morning after [hangover and price fall] may not arrive until a major economic or financial shock unfolds." - Gary Shilling
Economist
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[Quote No.46169] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[The power of central banks to manage the value of any market through managing expectations, interest rates, liquidity and money aggregate changes, at least in the short and medium term, can be seen in the following example, where, after 4 years of massive money printing, called quantitative easing, the US Dow Industrial Average reached an old high level although the real economy is much worse than when the previous high was reached making many suggest that the share market has disconnected from economic fundamentals:] 'Dow Jones Opens At All-Time Highs' --Dow Jones Industrial Average: Then [October 9th, 2007] 14164.5; Now [5th March, 2013] 14164.5 --Regular Gas Price: Then $2.75; Now $3.73 --GDP Growth: Then +2.5%; Now +1.6% --Americans Unemployed (in Labor Force): Then 6.7 million; Now 13.2 million --Americans On Food Stamps: Then 26.9 million; Now 47.69 million --Size of Fed's Balance Sheet: Then $0.89 trillion; Now $3.01 trillion --US Debt as a Percentage of GDP: Then ~38%; Now 74.2% --US Deficit (LTM): Then $97 billion; Now $975.6 billion --Total US Debt Outstanding: Then $9.008 trillion; Now $16.43 trillion --US Household Debt: Then $13.5 trillion; Now 12.87 trillion [after significant bankruptcies and writeoffs] --Labor Force Participation Rate: Then 65.8%; Now 63.6% --Consumer Confidence: Then 99.5; Now 69.6 --S&P Rating of the US: Then AAA; Now AA+ --VIX: Then 17.5%; Now 14% --10 Year Treasury Yield: Then 4.64%; Now 1.89% --EURUSD: Then 1.4145; Now 1.3050 --Gold: Then $748; Now $1583 --NYSE Average LTM Volume (per day): Then 1.3 billion shares; Now 545 million shares." - Tyler Durden
This is the pen-name of a financial blogger on ZeroHedge. [http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-05/dow-jones-opens-all-time-highs ]
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[Quote No.46170] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Here's a different take on the market maxim of 'Don't fight the Fed'.] ...The present syndrome of overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yield conditions is the same basic environment that concerned us in 2007, and in 2000 (as well as May 2011, just before the market experienced a near-20% swoon). While the Fed[eral Reserve - the US central bank] continues its policy of quantitative easing, that policy is fully recognized and investors now fully rely upon its continuation. It is also an element of common knowledge that 'everything will be fine until the Fed reverses course,' at which point everybody will presumably be able to sell to nobody. Unfortunately, the support for such complete confidence in Fed policy is vastly overstated. From an analytical perspective, it’s striking to me that even some thoughtful economists we know have been making assertions about Fed policy that have no basis in the data. For example, we heard last week that 'The number of times we actually had a bear market on our hands with the Fed easing and the economy expanding by any amount is around zero.' Wow. That’s not even true in the 'active Fed' period. Consider for example March-October 2002, when the market plunged 30% despite reductions in the Federal Funds rate and the discount rate, despite positive GDP growth – two quarters into an economic recovery, and despite a Purchasing Managers Index persistently above 50. Ditto for late-2007 when a bear market had already started, the Fed was already easing and the PMI was still above 50 (despite a recession that wouldn’t be recognized until several quarters later). Another assertion that makes me wince is the idea that 'since 2009, there has been an 85% correlation between the monetary base and the S&P 500.' This is a distressing use of statistics, because two data series will always have an extremely high correlation if both series capture an uncorrected diagonal move. For example, it is equally true that since 2009, there has been a 94% correlation between beer prices in Iceland and the S&P 500. That’s not to dismiss the enormous effect that Fed policy has had on the markets in recent years, but the implication of an '85% correlation' is that if one increases, the other is sure to increase as well. There is little basis in the data for that belief. The exception is that when stocks are down significantly from their level of 6-months prior, monetary easing is often eventually capable of boosting confidence and reversing recent spikes in risk premiums. In case you’re wondering, since 2000 there has been only a 9% correlation between the monetary base and the S&P 500, but a 99% correlation between the monetary base and the price of beer in Iceland. Why? The S&P 500 has experienced massive up and down cycles, while the monetary base and beer prices have both trended higher over time. Suffice it to say that in a century of historical data, the market has experienced terribly negative outcomes, on average, following the emergence of severely overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yield conditions that we presently observe. These capture a rare set of historical instances including 1929, 1972, 1987, 2000, 2007 and early 2011 – what I often refer to as a 'Who’s Who' of awful times to invest. Profoundly negative outcomes have exerted themselves even in the face of ongoing or subsequent easing by the Federal Reserve. Still, coordinated easing by the Fed and the European Central Bank was able to limit the 2011 instance to a decline of just under 20%, so we are very aware of the need for our approach be nimble. ...Today is not 2009, 2003, 1991, or 1982 [just before bull markets started]. The appropriate comparison to present conditions includes 1972, 1987, 2000, and 2007 [just before bear markets started]. Investors are likely to learn that too late. The Fed's punch bowl has poison at the bottom." - John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
He is the chief investment officer of the Hussman funds. Quoted from his weekly commentary entitled 'Out On A Limb - An Investor's Guide to X-treme Monetary and Fiscal Conditions', published March 4, 2013. [http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130304.htm ]
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[Quote No.46171] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Here is another take on the market maxim 'Don't fight the Fed' in regard to the recent unprecedented lowering of interest rates through Fed quantitative easing - qe or 'money printing' and is consistent with the Austrian school of economics understanding of the economy rather than the Keynesian or Friedmanite:] ...if you print enough money, everything is subsidized - bonds, stocks, real estate [so the Fed has cancelled all free market price signals about the true state of supply and demand in the economy whether these are to Congress or market participants] This is a big, big gamble, manipulating the most important price [interest rates - the cost of capital] in all of free markets. The Fed is printing a lot of money. They are forcing people into markets [because there is little yield anywhere else]. You shouldn't be buying securities because you're forced to buy them by zero rates. You should buy them because you think they're great value. They're great value only relative to zero interest rates. They're not great value on an absolute basis. I don't know when it's going to end, but my guess is, it's going to end very badly; and it's going to end very badly because, again, when you get the biggest price in the world, interest rates, being manipulated you get a misallocation of resources and this is going to end in one of two ways - with a malinvestment bust which we got in '07-'08 (we didn't get inflation). We got a malinvestment bust because of the bubble that was created in housing. Or it could end with just monetizing the debt and off we go in inflation. So that's a very binary outcome. They're both bad. The thought that you can exit from wherever the balance sheet will be at that time, 4 trillion, wherever it is, in an orderly manner the chairman [of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke] testified that will give the market plenty of warning, do you know what guys like me [professional investment managers] are going to do when they sell the first bond out of 4 trillion? And don't think that letting the bonds run off isn't selling. That debt has to be refinanced. If you do not -- if you just let all the bonds run off that is still 4 trillion in selling. And it's not till they actually sell the first one, it's till you get the whiff [that they are going to sell] -- what do you think -- what do you think the markets are going to do when they figure out the exit? Look what happened in qe-1 and qe-2 ended [fast and savage share market falls] which is why I don't think this is ever going to end. We know that it's not a real market driven number and we know the longer you keep it there, the greater the misallocation, and the greater the pain." - Stanley Druckenmiller
(1953 - ), American hedge fund manager. He is the former Chairman and President of Duquesne Capital, which he founded in 1981. He closed the fund in August 2010 because he felt unable to deliver high returns to his clients. At the time of closing, Duquesne Capital had over $12 billion in assets. From 1988 to 2000, he managed money for George Soros as the lead portfolio manager for Quantum Fund. He has an estimated net worth of $2.5 billion as of September 2011, ranked by Forbes as the 149th richest man in America. He is reported to have made $260 million in 2008. [http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-05/druckenmiller-when-you-get-kind-rigging-it-will-end-badly ]
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[Quote No.46173] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Making or following predictions in the stock market is a humbling experience as the following article shows:] THE IDIOT-MAKER RALLY: Check Out All Of The Gurus Made To Look Like Fools By This Market..." - Matthew Boesler
[http://www.businessinsider.com/dow-jones-idiot-maker-rally-2013-3?op=1 ]
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[Quote No.46174] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[They say a bear market develops in three stages:] --1. The first phase is the one where the bear market wipes out the optimism and excitement which existed at the preceding bull market’s top. --2. The second phase of a bear market is usually the longest phase. This is the phase where it gradually dawns on stock holders that business is deteriorating and that we are moving into hard times. --3. The third phase of a bear market is the 'throw ‘em in' phase where stocks are sold for no other reason than that the sellers need to raise cash. [The third stage is also the one which shows internal breadth readings -i.e. the percentage of stocks above the 200 MA and the Summation Index - hitting rock bottom capitulation levels.]" - Richard Russell
Dow Theory [to share investing] Newsletter author
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[Quote No.46175] Need Area: Money > Invest
"There are three classic signs that have historically strongly suggested that a [bull market may be topping and a] bear market might be nearing... These signs are: ---1 The Fed tightens too much – historically bull markets didn’t end when the Fed started to tighten. Rather, they ended after the Fed tightened too much. A classic indicator that the Fed has tightened too much is an inverted yield curve (i.e., short-term rates higher than long-term rates)... ---2 Significant overvaluation – [pe levels and]...Uncertainty, according to classic financial theory, indicates undervaluation [or at least not overvaluation]. Markets tend to be overvalued when investors are certain [greedy], and undervalued when investors are uncertain [fearful]. In fact, this is a financial tautology... ---3 Euphoria/Asset class of choice – [equities are the asset class of choice.]" - Richard Bernstein
Equity strategist at Merrill Lynch. [http://pragcap.com/richard-bernstein-3-signs-to-watch-for-the-next-bear-market ]
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[Quote No.46176] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[In investing] Developing variant [contrarian] views [from that of the majority] is always a hard thing to do. It exposes a manager to not only investment risk but business risk. People like to buy stocks when they’re higher and sell when they’re lower [the exact opposite of the bedrock 'buy low, sell high' Street wisdom]. People prefer the comfort of the herd." - Doug Kass
He runs the hedge-fund Seabreeze Partners Management. He made the call that the 2007-9 bear market would end in a few days on the 2nd of March, 2009 and the lows were actually reached the next day and then the new bull market began. [http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2013/03/06/the-pros-who-called-the-bottom/ ]
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[Quote No.46220] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Domestic policies and international trade consequences:] Most of the international financial crises that have occurred over the last 200 years were the result of strains created by the recycling of capital from countries with high savings [and low borrowings] to those with low savings [and high borrowings]. The current European crisis is a case in point. For nearly a decade, capital from high-savings [and low borrowings] countries like Germany flowed to low-savings [and high borrowings] countries like Spain. The resulting build-up in debt created its own constraints [as the cost of servicing the debt and the bubble in assets from the excess borrowings chasing up prices collapses as demand eventually falls when a greater foll doesn't arrive to buy the asset at a still higher price], and now Europe’s economy is forced to rebalance. If the rebalancing takes place only in Spain and other low-savings [and high borrowing] countries, the result, as John Maynard Keynes warned 80 years ago, must be much higher unemployment [unless there is default or the currency devalues to ensure nominal payment]. Whether unemployment remains confined to countries like Spain, or eventually migrates to those like Germany [due to spreading lack of demand], depends on whether the former remain in the euro. Although the relative savings positions of Germany and Spain seem to confirm cultural stereotypes, national savings rates have little to do with cultural proclivities. Instead, they largely reflect policies at home and abroad that determine household consumption rates. A country’s overall consumption rate is, of course, the flip side of its savings rate. Apart from demographics [where spending changes with age], which change slowly, three factors largely explain differences in national consumption rates. First and foremost is the share of national income that households retain [after tax]. In countries like the United States, where households keep a large share of what they produce, consumption rates tend to be high relative to GDP. In countries like China and Germany, however, where businesses and the government retain a disproportionate share, household consumption rates may be correspondingly low. The second factor is income inequality. As people become richer, their consumption grows more slowly than their wealth. As inequality rises, consumption rates generally drop and savings rates generally rise. Finally, there is households’ willingness to borrow to increase consumption, which is usually driven by perceptions about trends in household wealth [collateral quality, remaining equity, expectations of growth of collateral and wages and interest rate affordability]. In Spain, for example, as the value of stocks, bonds, and real estate soared prior to 2008, Spaniards took advantage of their growing wealth to borrow to increase consumption. But this is not the whole story. Consumption rates can also be driven by foreign policies that affect these three factors. For example, an agreement in the late 1990’s among the German government, corporations, and labor unions, which was aimed at generating domestic employment by restraining the wage share of GDP, [ensuring super competitive exports and so] automatically forced up the country’s savings rate [which was then lent overseas as a kind of vendor financing - in China's case with the US to keep the Yuan and therefore their exports cheap]. Germany’s large trade deficits in the decade before 2000 subsequently swung to large surpluses, which were balanced by corresponding deficits in countries like Spain. As Spain’s tradable-goods sector [exporters and those competing with imports] contracted in response to the expansion in Germany, it could respond in one of only three ways. First, Spain could refuse to accept the trade deficits, either by implementing protectionist measures or by devaluing its currency [the latter not allowed by those countries in the Euro]. Second, it could absorb excess German savings by letting unemployment rise as local manufacturers fired workers [from these uncompetitive sectors] (because rising unemployment forces down the savings rate). Finally, Spaniards could borrow excess German savings [at the low rates these excesses promoted] and increase consumption and investment [to the short-term benefit of both Spain and Germany]. Of course, Spain could not legally choose the first option, owing to its EU and eurozone membership, and, not surprisingly, was reluctant to choose the second [to allow high unemployment for social and political reasons]. This left only the third option. Spaniards borrowed heavily prior to the crisis to increase both consumption and investment, with much of the latter channeled into wasteful [excessive] real-estate and infrastructure projects [especially speculative asset investing leading to unsustainable bubbles]. This continued until 2007-2008, when Spanish debt levels became excessive. But, as long as Germany does not absorb its excess savings and accommodate the desired rise in Spanish savings, Spain is still faced with the same options. Once [3] borrowing is no longer possible, Spain must either [1] intervene in trade – which implies leaving the eurozone [and so devaluing its currency till it is competitive] – or [2] accept many more years of high unemployment until wages are driven down sufficiently to produce the equivalent of currency devaluation. This is the key point. Low-savings [and high borrowing] countries cannot easily adjust without an equivalent adjustment in high-savings [and low borrowing] countries, because their low savings rates may have been caused by high savings abroad. After all, savings and investment must be in balance globally, and if policy distortions cause savings in one country to rise faster than investment, the reverse must occur elsewhere in the world. In other words, savings rates in Spain and other deficit countries in Europe had to drop once policy distortions forced up Germany’s savings rate. In theory, excess German savings could have left Europe; but, given high Asian savings that already had to be absorbed, mainly by the US, and the constraints imposed by the euro, it was almost inevitable that excess German savings would be exported to other European countries. Germany should care about Spain’s difficulty in adjusting, because the resulting rise in European unemployment will be absorbed mostly by Spain unless the Spanish government accelerates the adjustment process by leaving the eurozone and devaluing. In that case, Germany would bear the brunt of the rise in unemployment [as export demand falls]. There should be nothing surprising about this. Once deficit countries take aggressive measures [to address the deficit in savings and the high borrowings], it is usually trade-surplus countries that suffer the most [as their export markets fall in demand with the rising unemployment] from international crises caused by trade and capital flow imbalances. As political tensions in low-savings countries grow, so will the risk of these countries abandoning the euro, causing the price that Germany will pay for its distorted savings rate to rise." - Michael Pettis
Professor of Finance at Peking University and a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment. This article is based on his recently published book 'The Great Rebalancing' (Princeton University Press). Copyright: Project Syndicate, Feb. 19, 2013. [http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-price-of-germany-s-high-savings-rate-by-michael-pettis ]
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[Quote No.46221] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Calling a recession is a very difficult and humbling thing:] As an example, here are some comments from then Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan in 1990 (a recession began in July 1990): 'In the very near term there’s little evidence that I can see to suggest the economy is tilting over [into recession].' Chairman Greenspan, July 1990. '...those who argue that we are already in a recession I think are reasonably certain to be wrong.' Greenspan, August 1990. '... the economy has not yet slipped into recession.' Greenspan, October 1990. I'd say he missed that downturn. Of course Wall Street and Fed Chairmen are notoriously bad at calling downturns." - Bill McBride
[http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/03/business-cycles-and-markets.html#hsQJgchfBu4f4tcf.99 ]
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[Quote No.46224] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[The financial news media suggest with their reporting that the stock market reflects the future economy...] The correlation between how markets perform relative to economic events is actually quite weak...Indeed, the correlation between economic noise and how equity markets perform has been wildly overemphasized. To quote Warren Buffett: 'If you knew what was going to happen in the economy, you still wouldn’t necessarily know what was going to happen in the stock market.' " - Barry Ritholtz
Quote in the Washington Post, March, 2013. [http://abnormalreturns.com/the-stock-market-and-economy-are-two-very-different-animals/ ]
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[Quote No.46226] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Investing is always full of uncertainty and emotional stress as the following states:] Sell them and sometimes you'll be sorry, Buy them and sometimes you'll regret, Hold them and sometimes you'll worry, Do nothing and sometimes you'll fret." - Investment Saying

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[Quote No.46227] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Can the stock market and economy diverge - for example with one improving and the other deteriorating? Does the economy eventually have to catch up with the stock market, which is considered a leading indicator of the economy - or confirm it if you will? Or, in failing to do so, will the economy eventually drag over-enthusiastic stocks back to 'reality'? The answer to both is maybe, eventually, probably. Roger Farmer, when he’s talking to his fellow economists, describes the stock market and the economy as...] co-integrated random walks. [For lay audiences he prefers a clarifying metaphor: two staggering drunks connected by a long rope. Sometimes the stock market and the economy go in the same direction, sometimes not. But tied together as they are, they can never get too far apart.] The relationship has been quite strong. It’s one of the most stable things I’ve seen in the post-war period." - Roger Farmer
British economist who teaches at the University of California at Los Angeles. [http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2013/03/16/two-staggering-drunks-connected-by-a-long-rope/ ]
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[Quote No.46238] Need Area: Money > Invest
"In the economic sphere an act, a habit, an institution, a law produces not only one effect, but a series of effects. Of these effects, the first alone is immediate; it appears simultaneously with its cause; it is seen. The other effects emerge only subsequently; they are not seen; we are fortunate if we foresee them. There is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one: the bad economist confines himself to the visible effect; the good economist takes into account both the effect that can be seen and those effects that must be foreseen." - Frederic Bastiat
1848
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[Quote No.46262] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[The booms and busts of the business cycle:] The boom produces impoverishment. But still more disastrous are its moral ravages. It makes people despondent and dispirited. The more optimistic they were under the illusory prosperity of the boom, the greater is their despair and their feeling of frustration. The individual is always ready to ascribe his good luck to his own efficiency and to take it as a well-deserved reward for his talent, application, and probity. But reverses of fortune he always charges to other people, and most of all to the absurdity of social and political institutions. He does not blame the authorities for having fostered the boom [with too low interest rates for example]. He reviles them for the inevitable collapse. In the opinion of the public, more inflation and more credit expansion are the only remedy against the evils which inflation and credit expansion have brought about." - Ludwig von Mises
Austrian School economist. Quote from his book, 'Human Action', published 1949.
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[Quote No.46273] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Don't confuse brains with a bull market." - Humphrey Neill

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[Quote No.46274] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[The currency deflation - price inflation protecting value of gold is believed by many as in the following quote:] Regardless of the dollar price involved, one ounce of gold would purchase a good-quality man's suit at the conclusion of the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, the presidency of Franklin Roosevelt, and today." - Peter A. Burshre

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[Quote No.46283] Need Area: Money > Invest
"If the real GDP growth rate is 7% and the inflation target is 3%, the money supply needs to be limited to a 10% growth rate." - Andy Xie
Published in an article on Caixin Online called 'China facing array of problems, including a looming banking crisis', March 24, 2013.
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[Quote No.46284] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Corporate managers lie like Ministers of Finance on the eve of devaluation." - Warren Buffett
Famous value investor and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.
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[Quote No.46312] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Frauds tend to cluster around the back-half of expansions and booms... ] One of our models is the Kindleberger-Minsky model, named after Hyman Minsky and Charles Kindleberger. It’s a macro model, and basically it takes a look at various market cycles. What we find is that the greatest clustering of fraud in the financial markets occurs, as you might imagine, during and immediately after the biggest bull markets. As I like to tell my students, it’s basically a period in which people suspend their disbelief. Everybody’s getting rich and it becomes increasingly easy to sell more questionable schemes and investments to investors. Typically the major frauds are uncovered or unmasked after the markets decline, for example, Bernie Madoff or Enron, when investors need money from other losses (and often these things have a Ponzi-like nature and can’t finance themselves from a self-sustaining basis) or people simply begin to build back their sense of disbelief and begin to ask tough questions that they didn’t ask during the bull market. So we do see that the fraud cycle generally does track the broader financial market cycles we see with a little bit of a lag." - Jim Chanos
legendary skeptic and short-selling investment maven. [refer http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2013/04/04/45216/ ]
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[Quote No.46357] Need Area: Money > Invest
"To an outsider, financial markets seem to be about math: a wall of intimidating numbers, red and green and manic, scrolling as pundits shout on TV. But that's not what the markets are really like at all; they're more like debates [or elections] between people who are speaking [voting] with their money rather than their voices." - Heidi Moore
writing for 'The Guardian'. [http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2013/04/17/markets-are-debates-between-people-who-are-speaking-with-money/ ]
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[Quote No.46374] Need Area: Money > Invest
"When you believe in things that you don’t understand, then you suffer." - Stevie Wonder
Lyrics from his song 'Superstitious'.
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[Quote No.46375] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Volatility usually increases at market tops and bottoms:] The temporary breaks in the market which preceded the crash were a serious trial for those who had declined fantasy. Early in 1928, in June, in December, and in February and March of 1929 [before the October crash that began the Great Depression] it seemed that the end had come. On various of these occasions the Times happily reported the return to reality. And then the market took flight again. Only a durable sense of doom could survive such discouragement. The time was coming when the optimists [who denied the top forming] would reap a rich harvest of discredit. But it has long since been forgotten that for many months those who resisted reassurance [and called the top early] were similarly, if less permanently, discredited." - John Kenneth Galbraith
'The Great Crash', published 1954.
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[Quote No.46376] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Another pattern that we’ve trained ourselves to identify, with some concern, is an emerging tendency toward increasingly immediate attempts by investors to buy every dip in the market. This tendency reflects a broadening consensus among investors that there is no direction other than up, and that any correction, however small, is a buying opportunity. As investors clamor to buy ever smaller dips at increasing frequency, the slope of the market’s advance becomes diagonal or parabolic [a blow off top]. This is one of the warning signs of a bubble. It does not require much of a 'catalyst' for these bubbles to burst, other than the retreat of some investors from the unanimous consensus that buying every dip is an act of genius." - John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
Hussman Fund's weekly commentary, published April 15, 2013, entitled 'Increasingly Immediate Impulses to Buy the Dip (or, How to Blow a Bubble)'. [http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130415.htm ]
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[Quote No.46377] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The time had come, as in all periods of speculation, when men sought not to be persuaded by the reality of things but to find excuses for escaping into the new world of fantasy [and believing that the share market could only go up - which is prelude to a parabolic blow off top and a massive crash which in this instance was the October, 1929, crash that began the Great Depression]." - John Kenneth Galbraith
'The Great Crash', published 1954.
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[Quote No.46383] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The brain is a flawed lens through which to see reality. This is true of both mouse brains and human brains. But a human brain is a flawed lens that can understand its own flaws - its systematic errors, its biases - and apply second-order corrections to them. This, in practice, makes the flawed lens far more powerful. Not perfect, but far more powerful!" - Eliezer Yudkowsky

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[Quote No.46401] Need Area: Money > Invest
"An economist's guess is liable to be as good as anybody else's." - Will Rogers

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[Quote No.46418] Need Area: Money > Invest
"There are some ever-present truths in this [investing] business. Economists usually forecast a return to trend growth and will never forecast a recession. Equity strategists tend to forecast the market will rise 10% each year and will never forecast bear markets." - Albert Edwards
Societe Generale investment strategist [http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-25/albert-edwards-bleak-crystal-ball-reveals-gold-above-10000-sp-450-and-sub-1-bond-yie ]
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[Quote No.46421] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The one investment certainty is that we are all frequently wrong. " - Bill Gross
Famously successful bond investor with PIMCO.
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[Quote No.46432] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Much of the empirical work on debt overhangs [for example the work by Reinhart and Rogoff] seeks to identify the 'overhang threshold' beyond which the correlation between debt and growth becomes negative. The results are broadly similar: above a threshold of about 95 percent of G.D.P., a 10 percent increase in the ratio of debt to G.D.P. is identified with a decline in annual growth of about 0.15 to 0.20 percent per year." - International Monetary Fund
Quote from the World Economic Outlook update published April, 2013.
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[Quote No.46433] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Debt Constrains Growth: Bad things happen when government debt exceeds 100% of GDP. Four studies published in just the past three years document this conclusion. These studies are highly relevant since OECD figures indicate that gross government debt exceeds 100% in the U.S., Europe, Japan as well as in other OECD member countries. Three of these studies were conducted by foreign scholars and published outside the United States thus avoiding attachment to the unfortunate domestic political debate. Here are the studies, starting with the one with the broadest implications: (1) In ‘Government Size and Growth: A Survey and Interpretation of the Evidence’, Swedish economists Andreas Bergh and Magnus Henrekson find a ‘significant negative correlation’ between size of government and economic growth. Specifically, ‘an increase in government size by 10 percentage points is associated with a 0.5% to 1% lower annual growth rate.’ (Journal of Economic Surveys, April, 2011) (2) In ‘The Impact of High and Growing Government Debt on Economic Growth, An Empirical Investigation for The Euro Area’, Cristina Checherita and Philipp Rother find that a government debt to GDP ratio above the turning point of 90-100% has a ‘deleterious’ impact on long-term growth. Additionally, the impact of debt on growth is non-linear. This means that as the government debt rises to higher and higher levels, the adverse growth consequences accelerate. (European Central Bank, Working Paper 1237, August 2010) (3) In ‘The Real Effects of Debt’, Stephen G. Cecchetti, M.S. Mohanty and Fabrizio Zampolli determine ‘beyond a certain level, debt is bad for growth. For government debt, the number is about 85% of GDP.’ (Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Basel, Switzerland, September, 2011) (4) In ‘Debt Overhangs: Past and Present - Post 1800 Episodes Characterized by Public Debt to GDP Levels Exceeding 90% for At Least Five Years’, Carmen M. Reinhart, Vincent R. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff confirm that public debt overhang episodes are associated with growth over one percent lower than during other periods, and such episodes lasted an average of 23 years. They write ‘the long duration also implies that cumulative shortfall in output from debt overhang is potentially massive’. (National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 18015, August 2012) When private debt to GDP rises above 160% to 175% of GDP, growth is also stunted. This argument is also operative since private debt to GDP in the U.S. was 260% of GDP as of the fourth quarter of 2012. The point on private debt is a serious matter since it strikes at one of the core purposes of central banking – to promote private credit growth. But this is only valid for normal considerations and not when private debt is excessively high. When private debt is excessive, efforts to promote more private debt are counterproductive, thus the Fed is destabilizing rather than facilitating economic growth. The two major studies on private debt, both completed in the past two years and published outside the United States, bear directly on this issue. The first is the 2011 United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) study, ‘Too Much Finance’, authored by Jean Louis Arcand, Enrico Berkes and Ugo Panizza. They find a negative effect on output growth when credit to private sector reaches 104% to 110% of GDP. The strongest adverse effects are for credit over 160% of GDP. The second is the 2011 BIS study referenced above. It finds that these negative consequences, or what the BIS economic advisor Cecchetti refers to as the point at which debt levels turn ‘cancerous’, start at 175% just slightly more than the UNCTAD study. " - Van R. Hoisington and Lacy H. Hunt, Ph.D.
Hoisington Investment Management – Quarterly Review and Outlook, First Quarter 2013. [http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/pdf/HIM2013Q1NP.pdf ]
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[Quote No.46434] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The simple truth is that our [crony capitalist rather than free market capitalist] businessmen do not want a government that will let business alone [and let the free market work to reward the best service performing and value providing businesses]. They want a government that they can use [to help them beat both domestic and foreign competitors regardless of their merit to customers]." - Albert Jay Nock
Quote from his work, 'Cogitations'.
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[Quote No.46484] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Fund managers often try to follow the market rather than be contrarian if it is overvalued or undervalued because of the risk of losing their jobs if their returns differ for long from the market. They will often quote John Maynard Keynes 'The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead' as justification at the time. The following quote details that danger to fund managers of being right in valuation but wrong in timing:] I often find myself caught between what is appropriate for the short-term vis-à-vis the long-term. Should I allow myself to become captivated by the long-term challenges that we are facing or should I do what the majority of investors seem perfectly happy to do – ignore the long term and focus on the present? Moral deliberations, career risk considerations, greed - you name it – all seem to be factors. I vividly recall the misfortunes of Tony Dye. Tony was one of Britain’s best known fund managers in the 1990s. As equity markets became more and more expensive towards the end of the decade, he became increasingly adamant that markets were overvalued and began to reduce his equity exposure. In 1999 his firm was 66th out of 67 in the UK equity league tables and in February 2000 he was sacked for poor performance. Within a few weeks of his dismissal, the FTSE peaked and one of the largest bear markets of all times began, all of which taught me a very important lesson – poor timing can ruin even the best investment decisions." - Niels C. Jensen
Fund manager. Quote from his 'Absolute Returns Letter', 8 May 2013.
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[Quote No.46735] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Too much debt - being over-leveraged is dangerous whether it is an individual, a business, a government or a country:] One Common Ingredient To All Of History's Panics Has Been Over-Indebtedness: ...When you take on debt it must create an income stream that services the debt and repays the principle – when it doesn't; it becomes deleterious to economic growth. There is now a negative feedback loop of increasing debt levels on economic growth. When is enough, enough? ‘I have no political bias. I am an investment manager and my job is to get the story right. Bad things happen when government debt exceeds 100% of GDP. Four studies published in just the past three years document this conclusion. These studies are highly relevant since OECD figures indicate that gross government debt exceeds 100% in the U.S., Europe, Japan as well as in other OECD member countries. Three of these studies were conducted by foreign scholars and published outside the United States thus avoiding attachment to the unfortunate domestic political debate. Here are the studies, starting with the one with the broadest implications: (1) In Government Size and Growth: A Survey and Interpretation of the Evidence, Swedish economists Andreas Bergh and Magnus Henrekson find a ‘significant negative correlation’ between size of government and economic growth.’ Specifically, ‘an increase in government size by 10 percentage points is associated with a 0.5% to 1% lower annual growth rate.’ (Journal of Economic Surveys, April, 2011) (2) In The Impact of High and Growing Government Debt on Economic Growth, An Empirical Investigation for The Euro Area, Cristina Checherita and Philipp Rother find that a government debt to GDP ratio above the turning point of 90-100% has a ‘deleterious’ impact on long-term growth. Additionally, the impact of debt on growth is non-linear. This means that as the government debt rises to higher and higher levels, the adverse growth consequences accelerate. (European Central Bank, Working Paper 1237, August 2010) (3) In The Real Effects of Debt, Stephen G. Cecchetti, M.S. Mohanty and Fabrizio Zampolli determine ‘beyond a certain level, debt is bad for growth. For government debt, the number is about 85% of GDP.’ (Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Basel, Switzerland, September, 2011) (4) In Debt Overhangs: Past and Present - Post 1800 Episodes Characterized by Public Debt to GDP Levels Exceeding 90% for At Least Five Years, Carmen M. Reinhart, Vincent R. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff confirm that public debt overhang episodes are associated with growth over one percent lower than during other periods, and such episodes lasted an average of 23 years. They write ‘the long duration also implies that cumulative shortfall in output from debt overhang is potentially massive’. (National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 18015, August 2012) When private debt to GDP rises above 160% to 175% of GDP, growth is also stunted. This argument is also operative since private debt to GDP in the U.S. was 260% of GDP as of the fourth quarter of 2012. The point on private debt is a serious matter since it strikes at one of the core purposes of central banking – to promote private credit growth. But this is only valid for normal considerations and not when private debt is excessively high. When private debt is excessive, efforts to promote more private debt are counterproductive, thus the Fed is destabilizing rather than facilitating economic growth. The two major studies on private debt, both completed in the past two years and published outside the United States, bear directly on this issue. The first is the 2011 United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) study, Too Much Finance, authored by Jean Louis Arcand, Enrico Berkes and Ugo Panizza. They find a negative effect on output growth when credit to private sector reaches 104% to 110% of GDP. The strongest adverse effects are for credit over 160% of GDP. The second is the 2011 BIS study referenced above. It finds that these negative consequences, or what the BIS economic advisor Cecchetti refers to as the point at which debt levels turn ‘cancerous’, start at 175% just slightly more than the UNCTAD study.’ The point here is that regardless of the current debate - Reinhart and Rogoff were right. What all of the studies have shown is that Debt to GDP rises above 90-100% it becomes deleterious to economic growth. However, when debt to GDP rises above 100% you begin to get negative returns (Phillip Rother and Christina Checherita study). There are 4 linkages to between changes in government debt and economic growth. --Private Saving --Public Investment --Factor Productivity --Sovereign Long term nominal and real interest rates. It is clear, from all of the available evidence that higher debt levels are leading to weaker economic growth. There have been 26 episodes since the 1800's where government debt exceeded the economy. In 23 of those cases it led to lower economic growth rates. Furthermore, in each of these cases, there has been a negative impact to output when private sector debt rise above 160%. This is why 260% (100% of Federal Debt To GDP + 160% of private debt to GDP) of total debt is the level at which the economy experiences a negative impact. The problem longer term is that extreme over-indebtedness has historically led to higher inflation in advanced economies. It is one thing when one country is over indebted as there have been other countries that have been able to step up and bail them out. It is quite a different story when virtually every advanced economy is over indebted as there is no one left to step in. ---Irrationality: Credible academic research indicates that economic growth deteriorates when debt to GDP reaches critical levels - a condition that has now been met in countries that represent 75% of global GDP. When this reality is coupled with the Fed's inability to create money growth or inflation, the result will invariably be slow nominal GDP growth. The financial and other markets do not seem to reflect this reality of subdued growth. Stock prices are high, or at least back to levels reached more than a decade ago, and bond yields contain a significant inflationary expectations premium. Stock and commodity prices have risen in concert with the announcement of QE1, QE2 and QE3. Theoretically, as well as from a long-term historical perspective, a mechanical link between an expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and these markets is lacking. It is possible to conclude, therefore, that psychology typical of irrational market behavior is at play. This suggests that when expectations shift from inflation to deflation, irrational behavior might adjust risk asset prices significantly. Such signs that a shift is beginning can be viewed in the commodity markets. The CRB Commodity Index peaked about two years ago at 691, but now stands at 551, a 20% decline despite massive Fed balance sheet expansion. The ability of the Fed to arrest a downside irrational move in risk assets may be limited. Non-risk assets, such as long dated U.S. treasuries, should benefit from this shift in perception. " - Dr. Lacy Hunt
Hoisington Investment Management. Published May 7, 2013. [http://www.businessinsider.com/lacy-hunt-mauldin-presentation-2013-5?IR=T ]
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[Quote No.46739] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The monetary managers are fond of telling us that they have substituted 'responsible money [fiat currency] management' for the gold standard. But there is no historic record of responsible paper money management ... The record taken as a whole is one of hyperinflation, devaluation and monetary chaos." - Henry Hazlitt

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[Quote No.46765] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Government bond bubble?] 'Risk-free return' is the standard tag attached to the government's solemn obligations. An investor I know, repulsed by prevailing [artificially low through Federal Bank rate manipulation from Quantitative Easing] government yields, has a timelier description – 'return-free risk'." - James Grant

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[Quote No.46766] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The value of paper [fiat] money is precisely the value of a politician's promise, as high or low as you put that [i.e. will it be kept in the future when the people the powers that be need to keep happy in order to stay in or gain power, the circumstances and even the politicians are different]; the value of gold is protected by the inability of politicians to manufacture it [to buy votes, guns, etc]." - Sir William Rees-Mogg

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[Quote No.46791] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Wise contrarians win out: 'What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end.' That’s how Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital began his talk at the 2013 Value Investor Conference last week [May, 2013]. He explained what he sees as being the three stages of a bull market. The first happens when a few people begin to believe that things will get better. The second comes when most investors realise that improvement is actually underway, and the third when everyone is sure that 'things will get better forever'. This last one – think the second quarter of 2007 – is characterised by the 'extreme brevity of financial memory' and so by the same silly justifications over and over again. 'This time it is different' people say, usually just before they point you to an investment that 'is so good that the price doesn’t matter' – when in fact, all that matters is the price [value]. The key to success is getting in during the first stage and out during the last. How? As ever, it is simple, but not remotely easy. If you want to prevent yourself being the fool, you have no choice but to be consistently contrarian, to build 'uncomfortably idiosyncratic portfolios' and, as Mark Twain said, to remember that 'whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to reform'." - Merryn Somerset Webb
Money Week editor. [http://www.moneyweek.com/shop/issues/640 ]
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[Quote No.46792] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Definition of a crack-up boom, that is a fiat money-printing = inflationary - boom:] This first stage of the inflationary process may last for many years. While it lasts, the prices of many goods and services are not yet adjusted to the altered money relation. There are still people in the country who have not yet become aware of the fact that they are confronted with a price revolution which will finally result in a considerable rise of all prices [runaway inflation], although the extent of this rise will not be the same in the various commodities and services. These people still believe that prices one day will drop. Waiting for this day, they restrict their purchases and concomitantly increase their cash holdings [which steadily lose purchasing power]. As long as such ideas are still held by public opinion, it is not yet too late for the government to abandon its inflationary policy [usually motivated by the desire to reduce the debt to nominal GDP figure]. But then, finally, the masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the fact that inflation is a deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. A breakdown occurs. The crack-up boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money [that is losing purchasing power] against ‘real’ goods [that are continually rising in price], no matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for them. Within a very short time, within a few weeks or even days, the things which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. They become scrap paper. Nobody wants to give away anything against them. It was this that happened with the Continental currency in America in 1781, with the French mandats territoriaux in 1796, and with the German mark in 1923. It will happen again whenever the same conditions appear. If a thing has to be used as a medium of exchange, public opinion must not believe that the quantity of this thing will increase beyond all bounds. Inflation is a policy that cannot last." - Ludwig von Mises
Famous Austrian School economist.
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[Quote No.46793] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[There are] ...five analytical lenses to examine historical asset bubbles that subsequently burst. These five lenses — [1] microeconomics, [2] macroeconomics, [3] psychology, [4] politics, and [5] biology — provide particular insights into whether an appreciating market might be considered a bubble... --[1] The microeconomic lens concerns the price mechanism. Do prices reflect market equilibrium between supply and demand or a reflexive feedback loop in which demand increases because prices are going up? --[2] The macroeconomic lens examines the role of credit-fueled speculation in rising asset prices. Hyman Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis suggests that stable markets breed instability, as investment migrates from hedge investments (in which debt can be repaid through investment income) to speculative investment (in which interest can be serviced through investment income, but repayment depends upon asset appreciation) to Ponzi financing (in which even servicing interest on debt depends upon appreciating asset values). --[3] The psychology lens views asset prices in the context of human behavior to determine whether investors are acting rationally, or whether there is evidence of overconfidence — even hubris — in their actions. --[4] The politics lens focuses on the government’s role in markets and to what degree government involvement may be distorting markets. For example, government actions may be interfering with true price discovery through regulatory fiat, distorting reported data, or other disruptions. --[5] Finally, the biological lens explores the concepts of epidemiology and emergence, applying them to financial markets. In some ways, financial bubbles are similar to epidemics, and their trajectory will depend upon the 'infection rate' among market participants, the 'removal rate' among the infected population, and the number of remaining participants yet to be infected. Emergence relates to the tendency of seemingly chaotic populations to exhibit herding behavior, as individual decision making is influenced by the decisions of other individuals." - Vikram Mansharamani
Yale financial lecturer and author of the book, 'Boombustology: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst' [refer http://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2012/03/01/five-perspectives-on-chinas-investment-bubble/ ]
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[Quote No.46883] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Accepting losses [that is small losses before they become big losses] is the most important single investment device to ensure safety of capital." - Gerald Loeb

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[Quote No.46912] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Are You Trying to Get Rich — Or Stay Rich? Last week, Bloomberg caused a minor stir with their story on C/NET founder Halsey Minor (How Halsey Minor Blew Tech Fortune on Way to Bankruptcy): ‘How do you sell the technology company you founded for $1.8 billion and five years later file for personal bankruptcy? For Halsey Minor, it may have been a fascination with houses, hotels, horses and art.’ This tale of foolishness and excess is worth discussing, if for no other reason it is strewn with lessons for others. Not just for dot com millionaires, but for anyone else who suddenly finds themselves with much more money they had the prior year. This goes for professional athletes, entrepreneurs, actors, rock stars and lottery winners. Even those kids of baby boomers who find themselves with a minor inheritance can find lessons to learn from Halsey’s follies. The key is recognizing that your new found wealth is not an ongoing revenue stream, but more typically reflects a one time (or short term) windfall. Why is that? Because you never not know what the future holds. Post IPO stock prices can falter, athletes suffer from career ending injuries, artists may be one hit wonders. An old Yiddish proverb states ‘Man plans and God laughs.’ How do you plan and not tickle the funny bone of major deities? Be aware of what I call The Fallacy of Competency Transference. [This is related to the highly successful investor, Warren Buffett's 'Stay in your area of competence' Rule of Investing if you wish to be successful.] This occurs when someone successful in one field jumps in to another and fails miserably. The most widely known example is Michael Jordan, the greatest basketball player the game has ever known, deciding he was also a baseball player. He was a .200 minor league hitter. I have had repeated conversations with Medical Doctors about this: They are extremely intelligent accomplished people who often assume they can do well in markets. (After all, they conquered what I consider a much more challenging field of medicine). The problem they run into is that competency transference. After 4 years of college (mostly focused on pre-med courses), they spend 4 years in Medical school; another year as an Interns, then as many as 8 years in Residency. Specialized fields may require training beyond residency, tacking on another 1-3 years. This process is at least 12, and as many as 20 years (if we include Board certification). What I try to explain to these highly educated, highly intelligent people is that they absolutely can achieve the same success in markets that they have as medical professionals — they just have to put the requisite time in, immersing themselves in finance (like they did in medicine) for a decade or so. It is usually around this moment that the light bulb goes off, and the cause of prior mediocre performance becomes understood. Which brings us back to Halsey Minor: Without the expertise, without putting the time in, without much more than capital, he jumped into 3 different fields he had little or no knowledge of: ---1. He became an Angel Investor, pouring money into early-stage startups and incubators and other such technology investments that eventually cost him a huge chunk of capital; ---2. He went on a mad shopping spree for real estate, high-end art and contemporary designer furniture, ‘investing’ tens of millions of dollars; ---3. He purchased an immense Virginia Plantation where he planned to raise racehorses; All of these purchases were eventually unwound at a fraction of their original purchase price in order to pay off creditors. ------------Which leads us directly to a few rules about dealing with sudden wealth: ---1. You must avoid the hubris and arrogance that often accompanies sudden wealth. (Becoming wealthier does not = acquiring more expertise); ---2. Debt is a dangerous tool, especially in the hands of the naive; ---3. Assets are not the same as income; wealth is not the same as cash flow; Spending is not the same as investing; ---4. You best understand your own strengths and weaknesses; this includes emotional, intellectual as well as behavioral. ---5. Experience teaches us that the belief ‘I’m rich, therefore I must be very smart’ is a recipe for disaster when not backed up with actual knowledge in relevant fields. There are many more rules we can derive from this tale of woe, but perhaps the single most important one is the importance of living within your means. This is true whether you have $500 in the bank or $500 million. Insolvency occurs when your liabilities exceed your assets and cash flow, regardless of how many zeros are on either side of the balance sheet . . ." - Barry Ritholz
American author, newspaper columnist, blogger, equities analyst, CEO of Fusion IQ, and guest commentator on Bloomberg Television. He is also a former contributor to CNBC and TheStreet.com. Published June 3rd, 2013. [http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/06/are-you-trying-to-get-rich-or-stay-rich/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29 ]
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[Quote No.46915] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Booms and busts:] During every preceding period of stock speculation and subsequent collapse there has been the same widespread idea that in some miraculous way, endlessly elaborated but never actually defined, the fundamental conditions and requirements of progress and prosperity have been changed, that old economic principles have been abrogated, [that 'this time is different']... that business profits are destined to grow faster and without limit, and that the expansion of credit can have no end. [Unfortunately it is never different:- 'greedy' irrational speculation always leads to busts and massive losses for those that believe the ubiquitous hype.] " - BusinessWeek
BusinessWeek, November 1929 - After the 'Black October', 1929 crash that began the Great Depression. [http://www.leithner.com.au/newsletter/#.UbNpsE0iNaQ ]
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[Quote No.46916] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Irrational booms and busts that rational - business-minded - investors must patiently wait out:] For as long as I can remember, veteran businessmen and investors – I among them – have been warning about the dangers of irrational stock speculation and hammering away at the theme that stock certificates are deeds of ownership and not betting slips. ... The investor has no choice but to sit by quietly while the [irrationally greedy or fearful] mob has its day, until the enthusiasm or panic of the speculators ... has been spent. He is not impatient, nor is he even in a very great hurry, for he is an investor, not a gambler or a speculator. The seeds of any bust are inherent in any boom that outstrips the pace of whatever solid factors gave it its impetus in the first place. There are no safeguards that can protect the emotional investor from himself." - J. Paul Getty
One of the most successful investors and richest men in the world. Quote from the book, 'The Wall Street Investor', published 1962.
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[Quote No.46934] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Luck enters into any contingency. You are a fool if you forget it - and a greater fool if you count upon it." - Phyllis Bottome

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[Quote No.46962] Need Area: Money > Invest
"We have two classes of [economic and business] forecasters, those who don’t know – and those who don’t know they don’t know." - John Kenneth Galbraith
Economist
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[Quote No.46963] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Those who have knowledge don’t predict and those who predict don’t have knowledge." - Lao Tzu
the sixth-century BC poet and father of Taoism
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[Quote No.46985] Need Area: Money > Invest
"I believe that good investors are successful not because of their IQ, but because they have an investing discipline [which allows them to not get caught up in the market's periods of irrational fear or greed]." - Stan Druckenmiller
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Duquesne Family Office. He founded Duquesne Capital Management in 1981, which he ran until he closed the firm in 2010. Previously, he was a Managing Director at Soros Fund Management, where he served as Lead Portfolio Manager of the Quantum Fund and Chief Investment Officer of Soros Fund Management. [http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-14/stanley-druckenmiller-chinas-future-and-investing-new-normal ]
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[Quote No.46986] Need Area: Money > Invest
"There has been vigourous debate on the veracity of Rogoff and Reinhart’s research on the consequences of countries exceeding 90% debt-to-GDP. But it doesn’t take away from the fact that historically, such levels of indebtedness has resulted in extreme implications. Countries tend to go into a full-blown monetisation or a default or inflation on average 23 years after they cross the 90% threshold according to their research. So these debt levels are less relevant for you and me today, but will be extremely crucial for our children. If we continue to borrow and spend like we do now, this can become a serious problem in 15 years." - Stan Druckenmiller
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Duquesne Family Office. He founded Duquesne Capital Management in 1981, which he ran until he closed the firm in 2010. Previously, he was a Managing Director at Soros Fund Management, where he served as Lead Portfolio Manager of the Quantum Fund and Chief Investment Officer of Soros Fund Management. [http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-14/stanley-druckenmiller-chinas-future-and-investing-new-normal ]
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[Quote No.47006] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Any investment policy followed by all naturally defeats itself. Thus the first step for the individual really trying to secure or to preserve capital is to detach himself from the crowd." - Gerald Loeb

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