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  Quotations - Invest  
[Quote No.47007] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Profits can be made safely only when the opportunity is available and not just because they happen to be desired or needed. ...Willingness and ability to hold funds uninvested while awaiting real opportunities is a key to success in the battle for investment survival." - Gerald Loeb

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[Quote No.47028] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The cycle of manias and panics results from the procyclical changes in the supply of credit [as optimistic businesses and consumers take on more debt during booms - especially if deliberately encouraged by loose central bank monetary policies and their resulting too low interest rates, only for banks to stop lending when the rising demand results in capacity bottlenecks and dangerous levels of inflation causing central banks to raise their rates to slow demand and in the process making many loans unserviceable and businesses unprofitable, so asset prices fall and banks stop new lending to all but the most creditworthy, making the bust even worse]." - Charles Kindleberger
Quote from his famous book, 'Manias, Panics and Crashes'.
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[Quote No.47095] Need Area: Money > Invest
"I conceive that the great part of the miseries of mankind are brought upon them by false estimates they have made of the value of things." - Benjamin Franklin

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[Quote No.47103] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Markets are strongest when they are broad [based with increases in many sectors and stocks rather than just in a few big, popular stocks], and weakest when they narrow." - Bob Farrell
Well-admired technical chartist investor.
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[Quote No.47143] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Panics [and the share market busts they cause] do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works [in the boom part of the market and business cycle due to too low interest rates for too long for the REAL risks involved]." - John Mills
'On Credit Cycles and the Origin of Commercial Panics', 1867.
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[Quote No.47207] Need Area: Money > Invest
"You must ignore the market and go against the grain in the short term to win [in] the long term. [Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.]" - Seth Klarman
American billionaire who founded the Baupost Group, a Boston-based private investment contrarian-value investing partnership, and the author of 'Margin of Safety: Risk-Averse Value Investing Strategies for the Thoughtful Investor'. [http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/07/klarman-economy-house-of-cards/ ]
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[Quote No.47233] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[When share markets are booming and disregarding negative economic indicators and those warning of danger, remember the British Philosopher Bertrand Russell's 'Chicken Story':] On a farm, there was a flock of chickens. One chicken started talking with another, remarking 'How good our farmer has been to us. I think he is an awfully nice man, because he comes every morning to feed us.' The other chicken nodded in agreement, adding 'and he has been feeding each and everyone of us here every day like clockwork, every day without fail since we were all just little baby chicks.' Indeed, when queried, most of the other chickens clucked in agreement about how benevolent their farmer was. But there was one chicken, intelligent but eccentric, who countered saying 'How do you know he is all that good? I remember, not too long ago, that there were some older chickens who were taken away, and I haven't seen them since. What ever happened to them?' Some of the chickens may have slept a little uneasy that night, but in the morning the farmer came as usual, this time scattering even more corn around. The chickens ate this with gusto, and this dispelled any remaining doubts about the benevolence of the farmer. 'You see, there is nothing to worry about. Our farmer had a little extra food, so he gave it to us because he likes us! He is a good man,' remarked one chicken to the others, and they all nodded in agreement, all of them, that is, except one. The intelligent but eccentric chicken became even more agitated. 'He is just fattening us up! We are going to be slaughtered in a weeks time!' he squawked in alarm. But nobody listened. All the other chickens just thought he was a troublemaker. A week later, all the chickens were placed into cages, loaded onto a truck, and driven to the slaughterhouse. The End. Moral of the story: You cannot always induce the truth from past experience and it is important to listen to dissenting voices!" - Anon

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[Quote No.47252] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The public buys most at the top [as they extrapolate the recent rise and feel greedy] and least at the bottom [as they extrapolate the recent fall and feel fearful]." - Stock market maxim

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[Quote No.47310] Need Area: Money > Invest
"It is said that investors can make money by identifying an investment story or thesis that moves from page 12 to page 1 of the newspaper [i.e. identify early the beginning of a trend. Be aware though that by the time it has reached page 1 that it is too late to safely join that trend-bandwagon as the market should have fully discounted that outcome. Latecomers and the greedy already in that trend will therefore likely suffer loses when the extremes of that trend-bandwagon revert to the mean or more appropriate level]." - Market Axiom
[http://humblestudentofthemarkets.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/market-perception-of-china-macro-risk.html ]
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[Quote No.47323] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Investing may be all about narrative, but trading is all about levels. Trading by its very definition is the art of profiting from short term movements in price. Value means nothing. Narrative means nothing. Only price matters. And price is ultimately a function of levels. Are they broken? Are they supported? How much do we risk to find out the answer? Those are the only questions that should matter to us traders. Don't get me wrong. As a trader you should know your narrative. You should be keenly aware of all the macro and micro themes running through the market, if for nothing else than to know when to stand down. But as traders we cannot make the following mistake. We cannot enter into a trade based upon a price level trigger and then remain in it because we are convinced of its narrative truth. " - Boris Schlossberg
share and foreign exchange trader
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[Quote No.47353] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Businesses often disclose problems like cockroaches being discovered in a kitchen where more keep being found...] When sorrows come, they come not single spies, but in battalions." - William Shakespeare

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[Quote No.47360] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Comparison in the financial arena is the main reason clients have trouble patiently sitting on their hands, letting whatever process they are comfortable with work for them. They get waylaid by some comparison along the way and lose their focus. If you tell a client that they made 12% on their account, they are very pleased. If you subsequently inform them that 'everyone else' made 14%, you have made them upset. The whole financial services industry, as it is constructed now, is predicated on making people upset so they will move their money around in a frenzy. Money in motion creates fees and commissions. The creation of more and more benchmarks and style boxes is nothing more than the creation of more things to COMPARE to, allowing clients to stay in a perpetual state of outrage." - Tom Dorsey

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[Quote No.47442] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Financial foolishness and] Insanity in individuals is something rare - but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs, it is the rule. [For example, all market booms and busts at their extremes are forms of collective, financial insanity.]" - Friedrich Nietzsche
(1844 - 1900), philosopher
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[Quote No.47453] Need Area: Money > Invest
"...The rise in interest rates [although not yet inverted where short-term rates exceed long-term] negatively impacts corporate profitability, raises borrowing costs, reduces capital expenditures, slows housing and decreases consumption... [especially when the rise in interest rates is to dampen inflation rather than in response to rising credit demand] ... As an investment manager we remain currently invested in the markets because we must avoid suffering career risk [i.e. losing our job if we don't get similar returns to the market averages which we are benchmarked against]. However, it would be naive to neglect the rising risks of the technical extensions, deviations from underlying fundamentals and weakening momentum [as well as weakening market breadth, new highs to new lows, and the advance-decline lines] that exists currently. Yet, despite all the evidence to the contrary, investors are piling into equities in the 'hope' that the markets will continue to advance indefinitely. As Yogi Berra once stated: 'You’ve got to be very careful if you don’t know where you are going, because you might not get there.' " - Lance Roberts
Financial commentator with 'Streetalk Live', published 20 August 2013. [http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=40215&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+GlobalEconomicIntersection+%28Global+Economic+Intersection+Analysis+Blog%29 ]
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[Quote No.47454] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Herd-like thinking occurs at the extremes of market booms and busts - when all who think a certain way and want to buy or sell have acted and so this is in the market prices already and all that can happen is for this extreme demand and supply situation to reverse:] When everybody thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong." - Humphrey B. Neill
'The Art of Contrary Thinking'.
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[Quote No.47457] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Years ago, one of the first things that I learned when I ventured into technical analysis was sector and industry rotation [market rather than business cycle]. Technical (which are not necessarily economic) bull phases start with leadership from interest sensitive groups [as central banks raise liquidity and lower interest rates], such as banks and homebuilders. The leadership baton is then passed to consumer related sectors, capital goods and so on. The terminal phase is signaled by the leadership of deep cyclical resource sectors [as capacity usage and inflation increases]. " - Cam Hui
portfolio manager at Qwest Investment Fund Management Ltd. [http://humblestudentofthemarkets.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/a-classic-late-cycle-rotation.html? ]
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[Quote No.47483] Need Area: Money > Invest
"A pack of lemmings looks like a group of individualists compared to Wall Street once it gets a concept in its teeth." - Warren Buffett
Famously successful value investor.
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[Quote No.47516] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[In investing especially] If you see the bandwagon you've missed it." - James Phillips

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[Quote No.47521] Need Area: Money > Invest
"...history shows that most investors [that is 'the crowd'] are wrong at the major market turning points [when markets turn from bull to bear and vice versa]." - Robert W. Colby
Fund manager
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[Quote No.47594] Need Area: Money > Invest
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true. The other is to refuse to accept what is true!" - Soren Kierkegaard

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[Quote No.47608] Need Area: Money > Invest
"In prosperity prepare for a change; in adversity hope for one!" - James Burgh

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[Quote No.47610] Need Area: Money > Invest
"One of the true tests of [investing] leadership is the ability to recognize a problem before it becomes an emergency!" - Arnold Glasow

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[Quote No.47648] Need Area: Money > Invest
"When you start seeing advertisements saying 'It's not too late', or 'Act now before it's too late', invariable the bulk of the gains have already been had, and the top is extremely close at hand, if not already gone." - Mike 'Mish' Shedlock
He is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. [http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com.au/2013/09/no-tapering-more-qe-serious-housing.html? ]
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[Quote No.47670] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Investing is ultimately the art of learning to live with intellectual and emotional discomfort. A comfortable investor is a complacent investor, and a complacent investor is someone who is about to get his head handed to him." - Michael Lewitt
Excerpted from the October, 2013 edition of 'The Credit Strategist'.
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[Quote No.47693] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Basically, price fluctuations have only one significant meaning for the true investor. They provide him with an opportunity to buy wisely when prices fall sharply and to sell wisely when they advance a great deal. At other times he will do better if he forgets about the stock market and pays attention to his dividend returns and to the operating results of his companies." - Benjamin Graham
He is considered the 'Father of Value Investing'.
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[Quote No.47694] Need Area: Money > Invest
"You should always be sceptical of [business and share] valuation metrics that use earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), or 'earnings before expenses' as it's often derided. As [famed value share investor, Warren] Buffett once asked, 'Does management think the tooth fairy pays for capital expenditures?' There are far better options in your tool bag, such as free cash flow." - Nathan Bell
Quoted from the article, 'Lessons from Jim Chanos' [a famous short-seller], published 8th October 2013, in issue 378 of 'The Intelligent Investor' newsletter. [ http://shares.intelligentinvestor.com.au/articles/378/Lessons-from-Jim-Chanos ] Jim Chanos is the world’s most famous short seller.
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[Quote No.47695] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[To invest well] ...we sometimes need to turn things on their head and think like a short seller. [So] Before you invest in a business, for example, seek out the most bearish views to check you haven’t missed anything and that you’re being adequately compensated for the risks." - Nathan Bell
Quoted from the article, 'Lessons from Jim Chanos' [a famous short-seller], published 8th October 2013, in issue 378 of 'The Intelligent Investor' newsletter. [ http://shares.intelligentinvestor.com.au/articles/378/Lessons-from-Jim-Chanos ]
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[Quote No.47731] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Spot the recession: the key warning sign of economic slowdown: Federal Reserve tapering, government shutdowns and the like: there is always something to worry about. But the fears are usually overblown. What matters more is 'inversion of the yield curve.' When it shows up, then we can really start worrying about recessions and bear markets in stocks and housing. Inversion of the yield curve occurs when short-term yields on fixed-income securities rise above long-term yields. Most of the time, short-term rates are lower. Right now in Canada, for example, government bonds stand at 0.98 per cent on three-month treasury bills, 2.5 per cent on 10-year maturities and 3.07 per cent on 30-year maturities (in between are many other maturities). But short-term yields can climb above long-term yields when central banks push them up. They do this by dumping some of their holdings of treasury bills, causing prices to fall and yields to rise (prices and yields for bills and bonds are inversely related). Such selling is undertaken to cool off an overheated economy. All U.S. recessions from the 1950s onwards were preceded by an inverted yield curve six to 18 months before. A number of studies have documented the relationship, a recent case being the paper written by Tobias Adrian and Arturo Estrella at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Why does an inverted yield curve bring down an economy? One big reason is that banks earn profits by borrowing at short-term rates and lending at long-term rates, so they encounter negative profit margins whenever inversion occurs. This leads to banks winding down their lending, cutting off an important source of credit for businesses and consumers. As long as money and credit is flowing, economies, stocks and housing tend to be resilient, albeit with episodes of volatility just to keep things interesting. Staying the course is likely to work well for businesses, investors and families as long as the yield curve in the U.S. or one’s country is not inverted. When might inversion occur? My guess is that the global economy is at least two to three years away. As indicated by currently low rates of employment and capacity utilization, economic slack still abounds. Moreover, policymakers are not going to ramp up their economies too aggressively for fear bond markets will revolt – as discussed in 'Can government debt be inflated away? Not likely.' In short, it will take some time to reach the stage where economies become overheated enough to generate the inflationary pressures that cause policymakers to jack-up short-term rates." - Larry MacDonald
Larry MacDonald is a retired economist who manages his own portfolio and writes on investing topics. Published Tuesday, Oct. 08 2013 in The Globe and Mail [ http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investor-community/trading-shots/spot-the-recession-the-key-warning-sign-of-economic-slowdown/article14727030/ ]
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[Quote No.47732] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Republican Budget Brinkmanship Leads to Inverted Treasury Yield Curve: Treasury Bills issued by the U.S. government due in November carry a lower implied yield than those due at the end of October, as a government shutdown and possible default on the Treasury's obligations begin to panic short-term debt markets. On Tuesday, the Treasury sold $30 billion in one-month bills at a rate of 0.35%, a yield not seen since the depths of the financial crisis in 2008. The rate roughly doubled from Monday levels and means that U.S. government debt due in November carries a lower yield than debts due at the end of October. In other words, the yield curve on Treasury Bills has inverted. A scenario where some would rather lend money for a longer time and at a lower yield than debts due in late October, when the Treasury is projected to reach the legal federal debt limit, signals that wrangling over the government's finances is causing a sharp shift in investor behavior. Weak demand for the Treasury's auction of one-month bills also could signal growing fear of a default. '[You] can buy a T-bill that matures in October for a lower price than you can buy a T-bill that is due in November. Since these are zero coupon instruments that is just strange,' Peter Tchir, head of TFMarket Advisors, wrote in a Tuesday client note. 'Another indicator of stress: Treasury yields are now inverted at short maturities,' Donald Marron, Director of Economic Policy Initiatives at the Urban Institute and a former member of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, wrote on Twitter. Inverted yields in short-term debt markets often signal wider issues throughout credit markets. At certain points in 2007, short term interbank rates surged above those for longer terms. For instance, in August of 2007 the rate for one-month LIBOR exceeded the three-month, six-month and 12-month LIBOR rates. In retrospect, we now know that inverted short-term LIBOR rates were a clear sign of a rising perception of counterparty risk throughout the financial system and a shortage of liquidity as investment banks tried to fund dollar-denominated mortgage securitization vehicles that previously had been off of their balance sheets. The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank were forced into action that August; however, inverted short-term LIBOR rates persisted through March of 2008 when Bear Stearns was rescued by JPMorgan and a Fed backstop. A yield surge on the newest issue of one-month and three-month government debt on Tuesday isn't likely related to any cash crunch, however, concerns about U.S. credibility appear to be taking hold. Some buyers of U.S. government debt have stepped to the sidelines for the moment, likely as a result of fear that Congress may not be able to resolve a Republican-led impasse over the debt ceiling. If the U.S. were to default on debt payments, subsequent debt auctions would likely have even worse results and carry higher yields. Bids during Tuesday's auction totaled $82.5 billion versus a prior six-month average of $162.6 billion for $40 billion in Treasury notes. Those auctions carried an average yield of 0.034%, according to Bloomberg data. Tuesday's auction also had the lowest bid-to-cover ratio since March of 2009. For the moment, an inverted T-Bill curve indicates that buyers -- often foreign Central Banks -- are losing confidence in the the U.S. government as a creditor. Still, normal yields across the longer-term bond market reflect relative calm. David Schawel, a fixed income portfolio manager and columnist for the CFA Institute's blog said on Twitter inverted short term Treasury rates indicate a real lack of foreign direct investment in the U.S., raising wider monetary and fiscal implications. Even with Tuesday's rising yields, U.S. T-Bills still trade near par value. 'Can you believe that we are talking about things that trade at 99.9% of par as showing signs of stress?,' Tchir of TFMarket Advisors wrote in his Tuesday afternoon note." - Antoine Gara
10/08/13 [http://www.thestreet.com/story/12063008/1/republican-budget-brinksmanship-leads-to-inverted-treasury-yield-curve.html ]
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[Quote No.47780] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Rough diamonds may sometimes be mistaken for worthless pebbles." - Thomas Browne

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[Quote No.47806] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Any experienced market observer knows that a given event or economic trend generally sends some assets higher and others lower, depending greatly on whether they're risk or safety (aka safe haven) assets... ----Risk Assets: By definition these rise in times of optimism because they are believed to provide better returns when economies are expanding. For example: --The classic risk assets include stocks, especially cyclical sector stocks that appreciate the most in times of prosperity when consumers want to spend. Construction, discretionary consumer goods, and travel sectors are classic examples of these. So are industrial commodities like oil, copper or iron that are in higher demand in times of expansion... in most time frames, most major global stock indexes like the S&P 500, FTSE 100, DAX, CAC, and Nikkei trend in a similar manner. --Higher yielding currencies tend to rise in times of expansion relative to currencies from nations with lower benchmark interest rates due to demand from carry trade, a more technical forex topic. ----Safe Haven Assets: rise in times of pessimism because it's believed they'll depreciate less or even appreciate in value. For example: --The classic safety assets include bonds with the highest credit rating --Low yielding currencies that tend to be bought as carry traders close out their carry trades in times of fear and seek shelter in these currencies... [As currency yield differentials fall a wave of selling can spread quickly through world financial markets, being felt most severely in developing countries as the gusher of cheap carry trade dollars, etc that had poured into their economies dries up, sparking a sharp slide in their stock prices and currencies and pushing up local interest rates and making policymakers, politicians and central bankers, from Jakarta to Sao Paulo, feel vulnerable, particularly those dependent on foreign capital inflows to finance budget deficits.]" - Cliff Wachtel
CPA and Director of Market Research, New Media and Training for Caesartrade.com, a fast growing forex and CFD broker. He wrote, 'The Sensible Guide To Forex: Safer, Smarter Ways To Survive and Prosper From The Start' [http://seekingalpha.com/article/1738632-inter-market-analysis-the-must-know-primer-and-review?source=email_macro_view&ifp=0 ]
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[Quote No.47809] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Governments, ancient as well as modern, Adam Smith told us want to engage in this juggling trick of deficit spending, accumulating public debt, and then debasing the currency to pay the debts off cheaply [using inflation, as appears to be the case with central bank quantitative easing since the Great Recession of 2008-09]. The task was to constrain the juggling as such a policy leads to the ruin of nations and in some instances the collapse of civilization. Orthodox economics from Smith to Hayek taught the dangers of this juggling. Keynes argued we need to embrace the juggling. We haven't stopped juggling ever since." - Peter Boettke
George Mason University economist. [http://www.coordinationproblem.org/2013/05/the-fiscal-debate-continues.html ]
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[Quote No.47816] Need Area: Money > Invest
"For as long as I can remember, veteran businessmen and investors – I among them – have been warning about the dangers of irrational stock speculation [for example technical charting and trading] and hammering away at the theme that stock certificates are deeds of ownership and not betting slips... The professional [rational = value] investor has no choice but to sit by quietly while the mob has its day, until the enthusiasm [greed] or panic [fear] of the speculators and non-professionals has been spent. He is not impatient, nor is he even in a very great hurry, for he is an investor, not a gambler or a speculator. The seeds of any bust are inherent in any boom that outstrips the pace of whatever solid factors gave it its impetus in the first place. There are no safeguards that can protect the emotional investor from himself. [As Warren Buffet so correctly stated, 'Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful!']" - J. Paul Getty

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[Quote No.47817] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Keynesian economists believe in the power of anti-capitalist government fiscal and monetary interventions in free markets and by acting on such beliefs cause bubbles-booms and the subsequent busts-crashes when their interventions go on too long or go wrong in other ways. A good recent example is the 2008 Great Recession - second only to the 1930's Great Depression in severity - which resulted from the 2008 bust of the sub-prime real estate boom which was a deliberate Keynesian stimulus policy as shown in the following quote from Nobel Prize winning Keynesian economist, Paul Krugman who advocated it in the New York Times in 2002, got it and then denied ever suggesting it after it blew up:] ...The basic point is that the recession of 2001 wasn't a typical postwar slump, brought on when an inflation-fighting Fed raises interest rates and easily ended by a snapback in housing and consumer spending when the Fed brings rates back down again. This was a prewar-style recession, a morning after brought on by irrational exuberance. To fight this recession the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And to do that, as Paul McCulley of Pimco put it, Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble..." - Paul Krugman
Nobel Prize winning Keynesian economist. [Refer http://www.nytimes.com/2002/08/02/opinion/dubya-s-double-dip.html?pagewanted=1 and http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/The-Circle-Bastiat/2010/0407/Paul-Krugman-the-Fed-and-the-housing-bubble and http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-23/greenspan-admits-he-knew-there-was-bubble-2008-refuses-apologize]
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[Quote No.47819] Need Area: Money > Invest
"America's key economic advantage -- perhaps -- is that it has the largest 'internal' market of any country in the world. It is the third most populated country in the world, with citizens that are far wealthier in the aggregate than those in China and India -- the only two countries larger than the U.S. This advantage in size and affluence means that American companies can become the largest in the world simply by selling to Americans -- thus gaining the advantage of scale that allows them to dominate globally." - Unknown
[refer http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?llr=yo7g7qbab&v=0011-h27AIlENjui4jACpCYZ7L5U57LRX5S66iWoRkS7T7nL_fQlCT7ePEkmA8BUh1fbTnJEeJ_yhhTLVV0mCC1VdwLkdxL8Mmpixoa2eu9NFBP9cZkZkA0l4eZ2RGGDtQk ]
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[Quote No.47833] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Ben Graham said: 'Investment is most intelligent when it is most businesslike.' These are the nine most important words ever written about investing." - Warren Buffett
Highly successful value investor and one of the richest men in the world.
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[Quote No.47853] Need Area: Money > Invest
"We [economists and central bankers] really can't forecast all that well. We pretend that we can but we can't. And markets do really weird things sometimes because they react to the way people behave, and sometimes people are a little screwy." - Alan Greenspan
Economist and former Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve central bank. Quote from an interview on 'The Daily Show', 21st October, 2013. [http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mon-october-21-2013/alan-greenspan ]
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[Quote No.47921] Need Area: Money > Invest
"All of our [market analysts'] reasoning ends in surrender to feeling [greed or fear]." - Blaise Pascal

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[Quote No.47922] Need Area: Money > Invest
"John Maynard Keynes lost his fortune in the 1929 crash but later became rich as a value investor: The father of modern economics [Keynesian economics], John Maynard Keynes was not only a game changing economist but an investor whose best years came after he stopped speculating on currency markets and focused on investing in quality companies with first-rate management. You could say he became a Warren Buffett but actually it is the other way around: Keynes is one of the investors that the Sage of Omaha found a revelation, along with his tutor Benjamin Graham. He has also lived a lot longer than Keynes allowing his wealth to compound higher over time... For Keynes a key moment of insight came after he had lost most of his fortune in the Wall Street crash of 1929 which he completely failed to see coming. His letters revealed a new approach to investing, a search for ‘ultimate value satisfied as to assets and ultimate earnings power and where the market price seems cheap in relation to these’. In 1934 he wrote: ‘As time goes on, I get more convinced that the right method in investment is to put fairly large sums into enterprises which one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes... Investing is an activity of forecasting the yield over the life of the asset; speculation is the activity of forecasting the psychology of the market.’ " - www.arabianmoney.net
[http://www.arabianmoney.net/us-stocks/2013/10/27/john-maynard-keynes-lost-his-fortune-in-the-1929-crash-but-later-became-rich-as-a-value-investor/ ]
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[Quote No.47923] Need Area: Money > Invest
"...From financial history and from my own experience, I long ago concluded that regression to the mean is the most powerful law in financial physics: Periods of above-average performance are inevitably followed by below-average returns, and bad times inevitably set the stage for surprisingly good performance. But humans perceive reality in short bursts and streaks, making a long-term perspective almost impossible to sustain – and making most people prone to believing that every blip is the beginning of a durable opportunity. My role, therefore, is to bet on regression to the mean even as most investors, and financial journalists, are betting against it. I try to talk readers out of chasing whatever is hot and, instead, to think about investing in what is not hot. Instead of pandering to investors’ own worst tendencies, I try to push back. ..." - Jason Zweig
Financial Journalist. Quote from 'Saving Investors from Themselves', WSJ.com MoneyBeat, 28 June 2013. [http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/06/28/the-intelligent-investor-saving-investors-from-themselves/ ]
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[Quote No.47924] Need Area: Money > Invest
"This first stage of the inflationary process may last for many years. While it lasts, the prices of many goods and services are not yet adjusted to the altered money relation. There are still people in the country who have not yet become aware of the fact that they are confronted with a price revolution which will finally result in a considerable rise of all prices, although the extent of this rise will not be the same in the various commodities and services. These people still believe that prices one day will drop. Waiting for this day, they restrict their purchases and concomitantly increase their cash holdings. As long as such ideas are still held by public opinion, it is not yet too late for the government to abandon its inflationary policy. But then, finally, the masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the fact that inflation is a deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. A breakdown occurs. The 'Crack Up Boom' appears. Everybody is anxious to swap their money against 'real' goods [commodities], whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for them. ... The things which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. They become scrap paper. Nobody wants to give away anything against them. [The destruction of the currency has occurred.]" - Ludwig von Mises
Austrian School economist. Quote from his magnum opus, 'Human Action', 1948.
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[Quote No.47925] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The [true] art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing [step by intricate step] the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups [to fully understand not just the intended incentives and consequences but also the unintended incentives and consequences to all stakeholders]." - Henry Hazlitt
in 'Economics in One Lesson'.
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[Quote No.47930] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Timing the stock market:...] ---Knowing the wrong time to invest: ... I understand that if I invest in the stock market at the wrong time I may fare very poorly for a decade. But what help is that knowledge? It would only be useful if I were able to work out in advance when those wrong times were. The good news? You probably can. I say ‘probably’ because humility is the first virtue of investing, and we can never know the future for certain. We can only apply intelligence guided by experience, and trust to strong probabilities. There are three measures which have a strong track record of predicting whether this is a good time to make long-term investments in U.S. stocks. Some of them may even have worked since the Victorian era, though I am skeptical of stock market data going back before the World War I. Certainly they seem to have worked well since the 1920s. Those three measures are the Cyclically-Adjusted Price-to-Earnings Ratio, or CAPE; the Cyclically-Adjusted Book-to-Market ratio; and the ‘q’ ratio. Two of these measures — the CAPE and the q — are readily accessible to the public. ---Wielding the CAPE: The CAPE has been popularized by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller, most notably in his book ‘Irrational Exuberance,’ in which he predicted the bear market which began in 2000. It is popularly known as the Shiller PE ratio. It helped him just win the Nobel Prize for Economics. .. This metric compares the current prices of stocks, not to this year’s or last year’s per-share earnings, but to the average per-share earnings of the past 10 years (adjusted for inflation). The argument for using this measure is that it smooths out short-term booms and slumps in profits. By this measure, the S&P 500 index has historically been on an average valuation of about 16 times cyclically-adjusted earnings. When share prices have fallen a long way below that level they have proven to be a really good deal over time: Investors who got in when stocks were cheap and hung on made super returns. On the other hand, when the CAPE or Shiller PE has been much above 16, the stock market has been a much less good deal. The subsequent returns have usually been mediocre or worse. For example a recent analysis by Mebane Faber of Cambria Investments found that, from 1881 to 2011, if you had invested in the stock market when the CAPE was below 5 — a very rare occurrence — you would have earned a spectacular 22% a year over the next five years, even after accounting for inflation. You’d become rich. If you had invested when the CAPE was between 5 and 10, you’d have earned on average 13% a year. On the other hand, if you had invested when the CAPE was over 20 you would have earned just 5% a year, and if you had invested when it was over 25 you would have lost money, after accounting for inflation. The correlations are strong. So, for example, during the two golden ages the Shiller PE was low. In the 1940s and early 1950s, and again from the late 1970s to the early 1990s, the Shiller PE averaged about 12. On the other hand, in the late 1930s, and in the later 1960s, the Shiller PE frequently rose above 20. In the late 1990s, when the go-with-the-flow crowd were cheering on ‘stocks for the long run’ and urging you to increase your allocation, the Shiller was flashing bright red warnings above 40. … It is not a perfect measure, of course. The CAPE would have gotten you into stocks too early in the mid-1970s, and out again too early in the mid-1990s. But overall someone who had used the Shiller PE to guide their investment allocation to stocks over many decades would have beaten the market. ---Taking cues from ‘q’: The same is also true of the ‘q’ measure, originally studied by economics Nobel laureate James Tobin. This compares the value of U.S. company stocks with how much it would cost to replace all their assets. Back in 1999-2000, when Shiller was using the CAPE to predict the stock- market bust, British financial consultant Andrew Smithers and University of London finance professor Stephen Wright were using the q to do the same thing. They published the results in a book, ‘Valuing Wall Street.’ The q and the CAPE correlate remarkably closely. Both tend to rise and fall at about the same time and the same way. The q can be tracked by looking at the Federal Reserve’s quarterly reports on money flows in the U.S. economy. Historically, the ‘q’ ratio averages about 0.6 to 0.7, meaning that the total value of U.S. stocks has typically averages about 60% to 70% of the cost of replacing all those companies’ assets." - Brett Arends
She is a MarketWatch columnist. [http://www.marketwatch.com/story/you-really-can-time-the-stock-market-2013-11-04?pagenumber=2 ]
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[Quote No.47953] Need Area: Money > Invest
"You can either be a contrarian or a victim." - Rick Rule

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[Quote No.47961] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[We all suffer from 'cognitive bias' where we collect facts confirming what we want to believe so stay skeptical and try to look for non-confirming facts as much as those that confirm:] Nothing is so easy as to deceive oneself; for what we wish, we readily believe!" - Demosthenes
(384-322 BC) Greek Orator
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[Quote No.47964] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Fundamental investing requires increased earnings of a company or the strong prospect of that to justify a price rise. So price rises without earnings or expectations of rises suggests a momemtum-fueled 'all-in' attitude - a greed for gain and a fear of missing out. But this is always what happens at the top of a bubble:] I will address the issue of a stock market bubble next week, but here is a tease and fascinating piece of data: Since 1990, the P/E multiple of the S&P 500 has appreciated by about 2% a year; in 2013, the S&P's P/E has increased by 18%! [and not while the 10 year bond yield was falling as the Fed Model for relative share value would indicate but while that yield actually increased by 100%!!]" - Doug Kass
Nov 01, 2013. [http://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=frontline ]
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[Quote No.47965] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Quantative Easing and excess liquidity as seen in M2 measures:] Why are we seeing so many bubbles right now? [i.e. shares, bond prices, agricultural land, etc.] One reason is that the economy is weak and inflation is low. The growth in the money supply doesn’t go to driving up prices for goods like toothpaste, haircuts, or cars. It goes to drive up prices of real estate, bonds, and stocks. Excess liquidity is money created beyond what the real economy needs. In technical terms, Marshallian K is the difference between growth in the money supply [M2] and nominal GDP [real GDP plus inflation]. The measure is the surplus of money that is not absorbed by the real economy. The term is named after the great English economist Alfred Marshall. When the money supply is growing faster than nominal GDP, then excess liquidity tends to flow to financial assets. However, if the money supply is growing more slowly than nominal GDP, then the real economy absorbs more available liquidity. That’s one reason why stocks go up so much when the economy is weak but the money supply is rising. [Nominal GDP is equal to the velocity of money (V) multiplied by the stock of money (M), thus GDP = M x V. This is Irving Fisher's equation of exchange, one of the important pillars of macroeconomics. Quantitative Easing uses this formula to try to get positive GDP - rather than ongoing recession - but due to low real demand, too great leverage already and collateral being overpriced to real demand very little lending is occurring and therefore reaching the real economy so the velocity of money is falling and negating a great deal of the benefit the increased money supply would under less leveraged conditions result in, as suggested by the formula. As the excess money has to go somewhere it has gone into bond prices as yields fall as inflation falls and this has increased the 'justified' price to earnings of the market although sales, revenue and earnings have risen little and mostly only through cost-cutting - especially laying off workers - now not needed due to the low demand - replacing high cost debt with lower cost debt and borrowing money to buy-back shares to artificially improve earnings per share figures to allow managers to exercise their options bonuses.]" - John Mauldin
In his article, 'Bubbles, Bubbles Everywhere', published November 1, 2013. [http://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=frontline ]
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[Quote No.47967] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Can you just listen to stock market analysts for advice about the end of a booming share market?] Analysts never see a recession coming." - Ed Yardeni
Market strategist [http://www.fa-mag.com/news/yardeni-sees-secular-bull-continuing-as-roubini--mauldin-wave-white-flags-15848.html ]
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[Quote No.47968] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[When share markets are booming but this is not justified by fundamental analysis of the long-term economics of the business in the context of the country's economy and stock market then the following quote from the man whose business and investing acumen eventually led him to become the richest man in the world is useful to remember:] For as long as I can remember, veteran businessmen and investors – I among them – have been warning about the dangers of irrational stock speculation and hammering away at the theme that stock certificates are deeds of ownership and not betting slips... The professional investor [fundamental value investor] has no choice but to sit by quietly while the mob has its day, until the enthusiasm [and greed] or panic [and fear] of the speculators and non-professionals has been spent. He is not impatient, nor is he even in a very great hurry, for he is an investor, not a gambler or a speculator. The seeds of any bust are inherent in any boom that outstrips the pace of whatever solid factors gave it its impetus in the first place. There are no safeguards that can protect the emotional investor from himself." - J. Paul Getty
(1892 – 1976) Anglo-American industrialist. He founded the Getty Oil Company, and in 1957 Fortune magazine named him the richest living American, whilst the 1966 Guinness Book of Records named him as the world's richest private citizen, worth an estimated $1.2 billion (approximately $8.6 billion in 2012). At his death, he was worth more than $2 billion (approximately $8.2 billion in 2012).
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[Quote No.47969] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The simple reality is that, when [financial or real] assets are mispriced [over- or under-valued], any correction can be sudden and violent." - Sandy McGregor
of Allan Gray, the investment management company [http://www.bdlive.co.za/opinion/columnists/2013/10/30/quantative-easing-will-poison-yellens-fed-chalice ]
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