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  Quotations - Invest  
[Quote No.47970] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Buffett’s favorite total market measure of value and future stock market performance, is not Shiller's CAPE or Tobin's 'q ratio' but rather Total Market Value-to-GNP, which has, since the 1940’s, demonstrated a 90% correlation with subsequent 10-year total returns on the S&P 500. GDP is 'Gross Domestic Product-the total market value of goods and services produced within the borders of a country.' GNP is 'Gross National Product-the total market value of goods and services produced by the residents of a country, even if they’re living abroad.' For the market value of all publicly traded securities, we can use The Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index.] The tour we’ve taken through the last century proves that market irrationality [bubble behaviour] of an extreme kind periodically erupts–and compellingly suggests that investors wanting to do well had better learn how to deal with the next outbreak. What’s needed is an antidote, and in my opinion that’s quantification. If you quantify, you won’t necessarily rise to brilliance, but neither will you sink into craziness. On a macro basis, quantification doesn’t have to be complicated at all. Below is a chart, starting almost 80 years ago and really quite fundamental in what it says. The chart shows the market value of all publicly traded securities as a percentage of the country’s business–that is, as a percentage of GNP [. The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment. And as you can see, nearly two years ago the ratio rose to an unprecedented level. That should have been a very strong warning signal. " - Warren Buffett
Famous and very successful share investor. Quote from his 2001 interview with 'Fortune’ magazine's Carol Loomis. [http://greenbackd.com/2013/03/25/warren-buffett-and-john-hussman-on-the-stock-market/ ] ---- [refer also http://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php ]
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[Quote No.47982] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Watch out for emergencies. They are your big chance." - Fritz Reiner

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[Quote No.47992] Need Area: Money > Invest
"There are prophets, there are guides, and there are argumentative people with theories, and one must be careful to discriminate between them." - Peter Brook

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[Quote No.48020] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The man of business knows that only by years of patient, unremitting attention to affairs can he earn his reward, which is the result, not of chance, but of well-devised means for the attainment of ends." - Andrew Carnegie
(1835–1919), businessman. Quote from 'The Empire of Business', 1902.
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[Quote No.48023] Need Area: Money > Invest
"A bull market doesn’t peak, till the last bear turns bullish [and buys ...and a bear market doesn’t trough, till the last bull turns bearish and sells. This is because all those that are going to shift the market have moved and now that force doesn't exist anymore.]" - Share market maxim

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[Quote No.48024] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Central banks are now [with quantitative easing to buy bonds including long bonds] so heavily influencing asset prices that investors are unable to ascertain market values. This influence is especially evident, with the Fed’s purchase of government bonds, which has made it impossible for investors to use bond prices [and the so-called 'risk-free' rate of return or yield] to learn anything about markets." - Kevin M. Warsh
Former US Federal Reserve Governor. Comment made to the Stanford University Institute for Economic Policy Research, 25 Jan 2012.
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[Quote No.48025] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball." - Erin Swenlin Heim
decisionpoint.com
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[Quote No.48026] Need Area: Money > Invest
"There are two requirements for success in Wall Street. One, you have to think correctly; and secondly, you have to think independently." - Ben Graham
The father of value share investing
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[Quote No.48029] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[When markets are booming, you will need to decide what type of 'idiot' you will be by what 'mistake' you will make:] The problem with [stock market and other booms that become] bubbles is that they force one to decide whether to look like AN IDIOT [by selling] BEFORE the peak [and 'missing' some gain], OR an idiot [by holding or even buying more] AFTER the peak [and seeing much of the previous 'gain' disappear]. There’s no calling the top..." - John Hussman
of Hussman Funds. [http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc131111.htm ---also--- http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-11/john-hussman-asks-what-different-time ]
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[Quote No.48030] Need Area: Money > Invest
"One-tenth of the folks run the world. One-tenth watch them run it, and the other eighty percent don't know what the hell's going on!" - Jake Simmons

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[Quote No.48033] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[What should the forward PE be roughly?] ...It seems simplistic, but it is still hard to beat the 'Rule of 20' to determine what [Forward] P/E's 'should' be. The Rule of 20 P/E is determined by taking 20 (a historical norm [in the USA]) and subtracting the inflation rate...In normal times, they are very close to each other. [Although this rule worked well from the 1980's till the mid 1990's, it has been less predictive since then.] [Since inflation expectations determines the US 10 year bond yield or 'risk free' rate - usually inflation plus 2 - then discounting future earnings by this as per the Fed Model for valuing shares would help explain the rule of 20 for guessing the forward PE. The Taylor Rule could also be used to estimate the 3 month bond rate and thereby the interest rate spread and therefore the profit of banks borrowing short and lending long and therefore the amount of credit growth and from that GDP growth.] " - Hays Advisory
[http://blog.haysadvisory.com/2013/11/checking-up-on-rule-of-20-pe.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+HaysAdvisoryLLC+%28The+official+blog+of+Hays+Advisory%29 ]
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[Quote No.48046] Need Area: Money > Invest
"No warning [for example about a price bubble and imminent crash or fraud] can save people [consumed by greed and so] determined to grow suddenly rich." - Lord Overstone

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[Quote No.48047] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Not doing what other fund managers are doing can result in being fired as a manager for underperforming other funds, especially momentum funds, and therefore having clients take their funds away and so have the fees fall as the assets under management fall. This is why many fund managers stay in bubbles even though they know they are going to crash eventually and lose a great deal of their clients' wealth. Some value fund managers however stick to their value investing principles:] I would rather lose half of my shareholders than half of my shareholders’ money." - Jean-Marie Eveillard
celebrated fund manager
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[Quote No.48048] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Not doing what other fund managers are doing can result in being fired as a manager for underperforming other funds, especially momentum funds, and therefore having clients take their funds away and so have the fees fall as the assets under management fall. This is why many fund managers stay in bubbles even though they know they are going to crash eventually and lose a great deal of their clients' wealth. Some value fund managers however stick to their value investing principles and then are punished for it, even though they are eventually proven correct. The following is an example of that:] Tony Dye was one of Britain's best known fund managers, becoming a household name in the late 1990s due to his controversial opinions about the outlook for global stock markets. At a time when markets were soaring, Dye insisted they were overvalued and on the verge of a crash – a view which put him at odds with most other investors at the time and earned him the nickname 'Dr Doom'. As early as 1995, as the FTSE 100 was approaching 4,000 points, Dye began to make the case that markets were too expensive. At the time, he was the chief investment officer for Phillips & Drew, one of Britain’s biggest asset management firms, and by 1996 he had begun to move large sums of clients’ money out of equities and into cash. In the years that followed, however, stock markets continued to soar, driven by the technology boom. But Dye stuck to his guns, avoiding the high-growth, high-risk internet stocks, maintaining large positions in cash, and consequently ensuring that Phillips & Drew's funds significantly underperformed their rivals. By 1999, the firm was ranked 66th out of 67 for performance amongst Britain’s institutional fund managers, and was haemorrhaging clients – and in February the following year, just weeks after the FTSE had broken through 7,000 points for the first time, Dye was sacked. Days later, his prophesy finally came true. Markets collapsed, and settled into a three year slump, which saw more than 50 per cent wiped off the value of global stock markets." - www.independent.co.uk
[http://www.independent.co.uk/news/obituaries/tony-dye-controversial-fund-manager-796811.html ]
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[Quote No.48066] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Crisis [including a share market bubble busting] takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." - Rudi Dornbusch
Economist
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[Quote No.48067] Need Area: Money > Invest
"QE [Quantitative Easing] was actually introduced in the United States all the way back in 1932, when Congress for the first time gave the Fed permission to buy Treasuries [to counter the effects of the 1929 stock market crash and the beginning of the Great Depression]. Approximately $1 billion (!) was acquired by the Fed back then. [QE was reintroduced in late 2008 to counter the 2007-8 stock market crash and the prospects of another 'depression'.]" - Niels C. Jensen
Absolute Return Newsletter, November, 2013.
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[Quote No.48105] Need Area: Money > Invest
"If your plan is to make a short term gain by buying momentum stocks today and finding a greater fool to sell them to tomorrow, the greater fool may be you." - Michael Blair
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/1844662-in-the-words-of-joseph-granville-sell-all-stocks-well-almost-all?source=email_mac_mar_out_3_3&ifp=0 ]
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[Quote No.48106] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Markets tend to return to the mean over time." - Bob Farrell
legendary Merrill Lynch strategist
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[Quote No.48107] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Exponential rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways." - Bob Farrell
legendary Merrill Lynch strategist
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[Quote No.48108] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve [and discipline]." - Bob Farrell
legendary Merrill Lynch strategist
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[Quote No.48109] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The public buys most at the top and the least at the bottom." - Bob Farrell
legendary Merrill Lynch strategist
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[Quote No.48110] Need Area: Money > Invest
"When all the experts and forecasts agree, something else is going to happen." - Bob Farrell
legendary Merrill Lynch strategist
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[Quote No.48111] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The public buys most at the top [of the market] and the least at the bottom." - Bob Farrell
legendary Merrill Lynch strategist
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[Quote No.48114] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Here is an example of valuing the share market from a comprehensive, long-term perspective, which is consistent with current over-valuation estimates by 'Q Ratio' and CAPE methodologies, rather than short-term valuations to justify technical, chart investing and excess central bank liquidity that has to go somewhere:] There is a time-honoured tradition in statistics: whipping the data until they confess. Bullish and bearish equity analysts are equally guilty of this practice. It would seem that statistical conclusions are merely an ex-post justification of a long-held prior belief about equity markets being cheap or overpriced. Clearly, consensus, notably among sellside analysts, is bullish. I present the bullish view before discussing a bearish counterpoint. Who can blame the equity bullish consensus? Earnings yields [Earnings to Price Ratio] – a proxy for real equity yields – stand at comfortably high levels. For example, the forward earnings yield on the S&P 500 is 8.3 per cent [Forward PE Ratio of 12.048]. Contrast real equity yields with real bond yields: with the US Consumer Price Index at 1.7 per cent and the nominal Federal Reserve funds rate at 15 basis points [0.15%], real [inflation adjusted] bond yields are at -1.55 per cent. The difference between equity and bond yields – also known as the equity risk premium – is therefore close to 10 per cent. This is way above the 4-5 per cent premium [usually] required by investors to own equity, and therefore indicative of an ultra-cheap equity market. There are two reasons why this consensus is misguided. First, because it uses dubious metrics. It is wiser to use a long-dated real bond yield because equity is a long-dated asset. And forward earnings yields are misleading for well-documented reasons: analysts’ earnings consensus forecasts are known to be wildly optimistic; in a bid for juicier equity and call option compensations, managers encourage their accountants to inflate earnings numbers; and earnings are partially squandered by managements as they seek to prioritise growth over profitability. So it is probably a good idea to use dividend-based – as opposed to earnings-based – equity valuation models. Unlike earnings, dividends do not lie. Second, because consensus disregards leverage. Profits [including margins] and leverage are linked (in a deadly embrace, it turns out). If deleveraging is yet to happen, then earnings growth can only be headed south. So what if you trust dividends more than forward earnings? In a simple dividend discount model, the real equity yield is the sum of dividend yield and real dividend growth. The S&P dividend yield is 2.15 per cent. The real dividend growth has been historically 1.25 per cent. The real 30-year yield is 0.4 per cent. Using these numbers, the equity risk premium is now 3 per cent, less than the premium level deemed acceptable [4-5% premium - refer above]. But we are not done yet, as we have not factored leverage into our equation. Enter Michal Kalecki, a neo-Marxist economist who specialised in the study of business cycles and effective demand. Mr Kalecki showed that profits were the sum of investments and the change in leverage [credit growth or reduction]. In the current environment, the implications of this equation are clear: in G7 economies, total debt is at a record 410 per cent of GDP. And this is excluding the net present value of social entitlements and healthcare expenditures, which is larger than the total debt. Because leverage stands at unsustainably high levels in advanced economies, it should fall substantially over the long term, affecting profits negatively. It can be assumed conservatively that the total-debt-to-GDP ratio needs to fall by 100 per cent before the debt position becomes sustainable in advanced economies. This would bring the US back to 1995, when the profit-to-GDP ratio was 45 per cent lower. We can value the S&P under the following scenario: dividends fall by 45 per cent over a zero-growth period of 10 years. Then they resume their real growth of 1.25 per cent per year. Again, assuming a real yield of 0.4 per cent and a required risk premium of 4.5 per cent, fair market value is only one-third of current market levels. Leverage is hence the fly in the ointment, begging the obvious question: when does the deleveraging take place? Answering this question is tantamount to timing the next major bear market. It is, of course, futile to predict a date, but as economist Herbert Stein used to say, if something cannot go on for ever, it will stop. It is increasingly obvious that governments will take no active step towards deleveraging unless they are under the gun. But there are institutions and mechanisms that will trigger deleveraging, namely: Basel III, the bond market, default and, rarely, courageous politicians. Inflation can also help delever, except in economies where social entitlements are inflation-indexed. In the short term, it is clear that central banks need to entertain the illusion of viable stock market valuations by pulling rabbits from a hat. But as high-powered money reaches ever higher levels, the probability of accidents looms large." - Jamil Baz
Chief investment strategist of GLG Partners, a London-based hedge fund. Prior to holding this position, he was a portfolio manager with PIMCO in London. Originally published in 'The Financial Times', May, 2013.[http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-05/brace-stock-market-accident ]
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[Quote No.48116] Need Area: Money > Invest
"One of the more painful lessons in investing is that the prudent investor (or 'value investor' if you prefer) almost invariably must forego plenty of fun at the top end of markets [sell when gets to frothy bubble top, even though it may go up higher before crashes]." - Jeremy Grantham
of fund managers, GMO. [http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-19/jeremy-grantham-timing-bear-markets-25-upside-left-and-then-bust-we-all-deserve ]
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[Quote No.48118] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[When the stock market is growing exponentially, in a bubble, how do successful investors keep their gains: by not being too greedy;] By selling too soon." - Bernard Baruch
financier and very successful share market investor who sold all his shares just before the 1929 stock market crash that heralded the start of the Great Depression. This quote is his answer to the question about how he made so much money.
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[Quote No.48126] Need Area: Money > Invest
"If you investigate individually the manias that the market has so dubbed over the years, in every case, it was expansive monetary policy that generated the boom in an asset. The particular asset varied from one boom to another. But the basic underlying propagator was too-easy monetary policy and too-low interest rates that induced ordinary people to say, well, it's so cheap to acquire whatever is the object of desire in an asset boom, and go ahead and acquire that object. And then of course if monetary policy tightens, the boom collapses." - Anna Schwartz
co-author with Milton Friedman of 'A Monetary History of the United States' (1963) [refer http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB122428279231046053 ]
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[Quote No.48127] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Why do bubbles occur and then go on so long? Here is one explanation from a technical charting newsletter's advice:] Almost everything is at record highs right now. Dow is above 16,000. S&P is above 1800. All of the S&P Sectors are higher year-to-date with Health Care being the strongest (+40.3%) and Utilities being the weakest (+13.9%). Is it exuberance? It is a bubble? As technical investors, we shouldn't care. We identify and ride trends - and the current trend is up." - Chip Anderson
'ChartWatchers' - www.stockchart.com newsletter, November 23, 2013.
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[Quote No.48133] Need Area: Money > Invest
"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable [obfuscating excuses] and despises what is honourable [responsibility and accountability], punishes virtue [i.e. saving] and rewards vice [i.e. speculation], encourages what is harmful [i.e. inflation through 'money printing' or its equivalent 'quantitative easing'] and discourages what is useful [i.e. deflation through productivity], applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult [or censorship and propaganda], a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe [socially, morally or economically, including stock market and real estate bubbles and then crashes]." - Frederic Bastiat
French statesman and economist
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[Quote No.48134] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Warren Buffett's favorite market metric:] The market value of all publicly traded securities as a percentage of the country's business -- that is, as a percentage of GNP. The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment... If the percentage relationship falls to the 70% or 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you. If the ratio approaches 200% -- as it did in 1999 and a part of 2000 -- you are playing with fire." - Warren Buffett
Famous and very successful share investor. [http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/11/21/warren-buffetts-favorite-market-indicator-shows-th.aspx ]
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[Quote No.48210] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[The mix of investment styles and market bubbles:] ------ When Are Markets 'Rational'? Last month's award of the Nobel Price in economics [October, 2013] set off a great deal of chortling because one of the three recipients, Eugene Fama, received the award for saying that markets are efficient at capital allocation and another, Robert Schiller, received the award for saying they are not. Typical is this response by John Kay: ‘The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences continues to astonish the public when awarding the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics. In 2011 it celebrated the success of recent research in promoting macroeconomic stability. This year it pays tribute to the capacity of economists to predict the long-run movement of asset prices. People with knowledge of financial economics may be further surprised that this year Eugene Fama and Robert Shiller are both recipients. Prof Fama made his name by developing the efficient market hypothesis, long the cornerstone of finance theory. Prof Shiller is the most prominent critic of that hypothesis. It is like awarding the physics prize jointly to Ptolemy for his theory that the Earth is the centre of the universe, and to Copernicus for showing it is not.’ To me, much of the argument about whether or not markets are efficient misses the point. There are conditions, it seems, under which markets seem to do a great job of managing risk, keeping the cost of capital reasonable, and allocating capital to its most productive use, and there are times when clearly this does not happen. The interesting question, in that case, becomes what are the conditions under which the former seems to occur. I wrote about this most recently in my most recent book about China, Avoiding the Fall, and I think it might be useful to recap that argument. I argued in the book (based on some articles I published in 2004-05) that an ‘efficient’ market is one that has an efficient mix of investment strategies. Without this efficient mix, the market itself fails in its ability to allocate capital productively at reasonable costs. Investors make buy and sell decisions for a wide variety of reasons, and when there is a good balance in the structure of their decision-making, financial markets are stable and efficient. But there are times in which investment is heavily tilted toward a particular type of decision, and this can undermine the functioning of the markets. To see why this is so, it is necessary to understand how and why investors make decisions. An efficient and well-balanced market is composed primarily of three types of investment strategies-fundamental investment, relative value investment, and speculation- each of which plays an important role in creating and fostering an efficient market. • --- Fundamental investment, also called value investment, involves buying assets in order to earn the economic value generated over the life of the investment. When investors attempt to project and assess the long-term cash flows generated by an asset, to discount those cash flows at some rate that acknowledges the riskiness of those projections, and to determine what an appropriate price is, they are acting as fundamental investors. • --- Relative value investing, which includes arbitrage, involves exploiting pricing inefficiencies to make low-risk profits. Relative value investors may not have a clear idea of the fundamental value of an asset, but this doesn't matter to them. They hope to compare assets and determine whether one asset is over- or underpriced relative to another, and if so, to profit from an eventual convergence in prices. • --- Speculation is actually a group of related investment strategies that take advantage of information that will have an immediate effect on prices by causing short-term changes in supply or demand factors that may affect an asset's price in the hours, days, or weeks to come. These changes may be only temporarily and may eventually reverse themselves, but by trading quickly, speculators can profit from short-term expected price changes. Each of these investment strategies plays a different and necessary role in ensuring that a well-functioning market is able keep the cost of capital low, absorb financial risks, and allocate capital efficiently to its more productive use. A well-balanced market is relatively stable and allocates capital in an efficient way that maximizes long-term economic growth. Each of the investment strategies also requires very different types of information, or interprets the same information in different ways. Speculators are often ‘trend’ traders, or trade against information that can have a short-term impact on supply or demand factors. They typically look for many opportunities to make small profits. When speculators buy in rising markets or sell in falling ones- either because they are trend traders or because the types of leverage and the instruments they use force them to do so- their behavior, by reinforcing price movements, adds volatility to market prices. ------ Different Investors Make Markets Efficient: Value investors typically do the opposite. They tend to have fairly stable target price ranges based on their evaluations of long-term cash flows discounted at an appropriate rate. When an asset trades below the target price range, they buy; when it trades above the target price range, they sell. This brings stability to market prices. For example, when higher-than-expected GDP growth rates are announced, a speculator may expect a subsequent rise in short-term interest rates. If a significant number of investors have borrowed money to purchase securities, the rise in short-term rates will raise the cost of their investment and so may induce them to sell, which would cause an immediate but temporary drop in the market. As speculators quickly sell stocks ahead of them to take advantage of this expected selling, their activity itself can force prices to drop. Declining prices put additional pressure on those investors who have borrowed money to purchase stocks, and they sell even more. In this way, the decline in prices can become self-reinforcing. Value investors, however, play a stabilizing role. The announcement of good GDP growth rates may cause them to expect corporate profits to increase in the long term, and so they increase their target price range for stocks. As speculators push the price of stocks down, value investors become increasingly interested in buying until their net purchases begin to stabilize the market and eventually reverse the decline. Relative value investors or traders play a different role. Like speculators, they tend not to have long-term views of prices. However, when any particular asset is trading too high (low) relative to other equivalent risks in the market, they sell (buy) the asset and hedge the risk by buying (selling) equivalent securities. A well-functioning market requires all three types of investors for socially useful projects to have access to appropriately-priced capital. • --- Value investors allocate capital to its most productive use. • --- Speculators, because they trade frequently, provide the liquidity and trading volume that allows value investors and relative value traders to execute their trades cheaply. They also ensure that information is disseminated quickly. • --- Relative value trading forces pricing consistency and improves the information value of market prices, which allows value investors to judge and interpret market information with confidence. It also increases market liquidity by combining several different, related assets into a single market. When buying of one asset forces its price to rise relative to that of other related assets, for example, relative value traders will sell that asset and buy the related assets, thus spreading the buying throughout the market to related assets. It is because of relative value strategies that we can speak of a unified market for different assets. Without a good balance of all three types of investment strategies, financial systems lose their flexibility, the cost of capital is likely to be distorted, and the markets become inefficient at allocating capital. This is the case, for example, in a market dominated by speculators. Speculators focus largely on variables that may affect short-term demand or supply for the asset, such as changes in interest rates, political and regulatory announcements, or insider behavior. They ignore information like growth expectations or new product development whose impact tends to reveal itself only over long periods of time. In a market dominated by speculators, prices can rise very high or drop very low on information that may have little to do with economic value and a lot to do with short-term, non-economic behavior. Value investors keep markets stable and focused on profitability and growth. For value investors, short-term, non-economic variables are not an important or useful type of information. They are more confident of their ability to discount economic variables that develop and affect cash flows over the long term. Furthermore, because the present value of future cash flows is highly susceptible to the discount rate used, these investors tend to spend a lot of effort on developing appropriate discount rates. However, a market consisting of only value investors is likely to be illiquid and pricing-inconsistent. This would cause an increase in the required discount rate, thus raising the cost of capital for borrowers. Because each type of investor is looking at different information, and sometimes analyzing the same information differently, investors pass different types of risk back and forth among themselves, and their interaction ensures that a market functions smoothly and provides its main social benefits. Value investors channel capital to the most productive areas by seeking long-term earning potential, and speculators and arbitrage traders keep the cost of capital low by providing liquidity and clear pricing signals. ------ Where Are the Value Investors? Not all markets have an optimal mix of investment strategies. China, for example, does not have a well-balanced investor base. There is almost no arbitrage trading because this requires low transaction costs, credible data, and the legal ability to short securities. None of these is easily available in China. There are also very few value investors in China because most of the tools they require, including good macro data, good financial statements, a clear corporate governance framework, and predictable government behavior, are missing. As a result, the vast majority of investors in China tend to be speculators. One consequence of this is that local markets often do a poor job of rewarding companies for decisions that add economic value over the medium or long term. Another consequence is that Chinese markets are very volatile. Why are there so few value investors in China and so many speculators? Some experts argue that this is because of the lack of investors with long-term investment horizons, such as pension funds, that need to invest money today for cash flow needs far off in the future. Others argue that very few Chinese investors have the credit skills or the sophisticated analytical and risk-management techniques necessary to make long-term investment decisions. If these arguments are true, increasing the participation of experienced foreign pension funds, insurance companies, and long-term investment funds in the domestic markets, as Beijing has done with its QFII program, certainly seems like a good way to make capital markets more efficient. But the issue is more complex than that. China, after all, already has natural long-term investors. These include insurance companies, pension funds, and, most important, a very large and remarkably patient potential investor base in its tens of millions of individual and family savers, most of whom save for the long term. China also has a lot of professionals who have trained at the leading U.S. and UK universities and financial institutions, and they are more than qualified to understand credit risk and portfolio techniques. So why aren't Chinese investors stepping in to fill the role provided by their counterparts in the United States and other rich countries? The answer lies in what kind of information can be gathered in the Chinese markets and how the discount rates used by investors to value this information are determined. If we broadly divide information into ‘fundamental’ information, which is useful for making long-term value decisions, and ‘technical’ information, which refers to short-term supply and demand factors, it is easy to see that the Chinese markets provide a lot of the latter and almost none of the former. The ability to make fundamental value decisions requires a great deal of confidence in the quality of economic data and in the predictability of corporate behavior, but in China today there is little such confidence. ------ How to develop the investor base: Furthermore, regulated interest rates and pricing inefficiencies make it nearly impossible to develop good discount rates. Finally, a very weak corporate governance framework makes it extremely difficult for investors to understand the incentive structure for managers and to be confident that managers are working to optimize enterprise or market value. And yet, when it comes to technical information useful to speculators, China is too well endowed. Insider activity is very common in China, even when it is illegal. Corporate governance and ownership structures are opaque, which can cause sharp and unexpected fluctuations in corporate behavior. Markets are illiquid and fragmented, so determined traders can easily cause large price movements. In addition, the single most important player in the market, the government, is able-and very likely-to behave in ways that are not subject to economic analysis. This has a very damaging effect on undermining value investment and strengthening speculation. In the first place, unpredictable government intervention causes discount rates to rise, because value investors must incorporate additional uncertainty of a type they have difficulty evaluating. Second, it puts a high value on research directed at predicting and exploiting short-term government behavior, and thereby increases the profitability of speculators at the expense of other types of investors. Even credit decisions must become speculative, because when bankruptcy is a political decision and not an economic outcome, lending decisions are driven not by considerations of economic value but by political calculations. China is attempting to improve the quality of financial information in order to encourage long-term investing, and it is trying to make markets less fragmented and more liquid. But although these are important steps, they are not enough. Value investors need not just good economic and financial information, but also a predictable framework in which to derive reasonable discount rates. And here China has a problem. There are several factors, besides the poor quality of information, that cause discount rates to be very high. These include market manipulation, insider behavior, opaque ownership and control structures, and the lack of a clear regulatory framework that limits the ability of the government to affect economic decisions in the long run. This forces investors to incorporate too much additional uncertainty into their discount rates. Chinese value investors, consequently, use high discount rates to account for high levels of uncertainty. Some of this uncertainty represents normal business uncertainty. This is a necessary component of an economically efficient discount rate, since all projects have to be judged not just on their expected return but also on the riskiness of the outcome. But Chinese investors must incorporate two other, economically inefficient, sources of uncertainty. The first is the uncertainty surrounding the quality of economic and financial statement information. The second is the large variety of non-economic factors that can influence prices. This is the crucial point. It is not just that it is hard to get good economic and financial information in China. The problem is that even when information is available, the variety of non-economic factors that affect value force the appropriate discount rate so high that value investors are priced out of the market. Speculators, however, are much more confident about the value of the information they use. Furthermore, because their investment horizon tends to be very short, they can largely ignore the impact of high implicit discount rates. As a result, it is their behavior that drives the whole market. One consequence is that capital markets in China tend to respond to a very large variety of non-economic information and rarely, if ever, respond to estimates of economic value. During the past decade, Beijing was betting that increasing foreign participation in the domestic markets would improve the functioning of the capital markets by reducing the bad habits of speculation and increasing the good habits of value investing and arbitrage. But it has become pretty clear that this faith was misplaced: the market is as speculative and inefficient as ever. This should not have been a surprise. The combination of very weak fundamental information and structural tendencies in the market-such as heavy-handed government interventions and market manipulation-reward speculative trading and undermine value investing. This forces all investors to focus on short-term technical information and to behave speculatively. In China, even Warren Buffett would speculate. Investors in Chinese markets must be speculators if they expect to be profitable. As long as this is the case, investors will not behave in a way that promotes the most productive capital allocation mechanism in the market, and such efforts as bringing in foreigners will have no meaningful impact. What China must do is something radically different. It must downgrade the importance of speculative trading by reducing the impact of non-economic behavior from government agencies, manipulators, and insiders. It must improve corporate transparency. It must continue efforts to raise the quality of both corporate reporting and national economic data. Finally, it must deregulate interest rates and open up local markets to permit arbitragers to enforce pricing consistency and to allow better estimates of appropriate discount rates. If done correctly, these changes would be enough to spur a major transformation in the way Chinese investors behave by permitting them to make long-term investment decisions. It would reduce the profitability of speculative trading and increase the profitability of arbitrage and value investing, and so encourage a better mix of investors. If China follows this path, it would spontaneously develop the domestic investors that channel capital to the most productive enterprise. Until then, China's capital markets, like those of many countries in Latin America and Asia, will be poor at allocating capital. ------ When efficient markets become inefficient: But this is not just an issue for China. In the U.S. there have been times when markets seemed efficient and rational, and times when they clearly were not. Of course, this cannot be explained by the disappearance of the tools needed by value investors - for example the market for internet stocks seemed rational in the early 1990s and clearly became irrational by the late 1990s. But this did not occur, I would argue, because fundamental investors were suddenly deprived of their analytical tools. What happened instead, I would argue, is that conditions that led to a too-rapid expansion of liquidity at excessively low interest rates changed the environment in which fundamental investors could operate. As excess liquidity forced up asset prices, the likes of Warren Buffett found themselves unable to justify buying assets and so they dropped out of the market. As they did, the mix of investment strategies shifted until the market became dominated by speculators, and when this happened what drove prices was no longer the capital allocation decision of value investors but rather than short-term expectations of changes in demand and supply factors that characterize a highly speculative market. This, I would argue, made the U.S. stock market of the late 1990s (and perhaps today, too) ‘irrational’, not because they are fundamentally irrational or inefficient-- but rather because they can only function efficiently with the right mix of investment strategies. When the mix was altered - and this can happen when liquidity is too abundant, or when a sudden shock undermines the confidence value investors have in their ability to analyze data, or when a political event cause uncertainty to rise so high that value investors are priced out of the market, or for a number of other reasons - the markets stopped functioning as they should. Perhaps what I am saying is intuitively obvious to most traders or investors, but it seems to me that it suggests that the argument about whether markets are efficient or not misses the point. There are certain conditions under which markets are efficient because the tools needed for each of the various investment strategies are widely available and are credible. When those conditions are not met, because the tools are not available, or when they are temporarily overwhelmed by exogenous events, perhaps because the credibility of those tools are temporarily undermined, or when excess liquidity causes fundamental investors to drop out, markets cannot be efficient." - Michael Pettis
He is a professor at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, where he specializes in Chinese financial markets. He has also taught, from 2002 to 2004, at Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management and, from 1992 to 2001, at Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business. Pettis has worked on Wall Street in trading, capital markets, and corporate finance since 1987, when he joined the Sovereign Debt trading team at Manufacturers Hanover (now JP Morgan). Most recently, from 1996 to 2001, Pettis worked at Bear Stearns, where he was Managing Director-Principal heading the Latin American Capital Markets and the Liability Management groups. Published Nov 24 2013. [http://seekingalpha.com/article/1859761-when-are-markets- rational?source=email_mac_eco_4_12&ifp=0 ]
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[Quote No.48214] Need Area: Money > Invest
"...investors often become convinced late in a bull market [the bubble end] that 'the greatest risk is being out of the market'... At bull market peaks, it often seems that the market is simply headed higher with no end in sight, and 'buy-and-hold' appears superior to every alternative. Meanwhile, the reputation of value-conscious investors and risk-managers [who have sold by this time] goes from 'champ' to 'chump' [only to become 'champ' again when the bubble eventually pops]." - John Hussman
Investment strategist for Hussman Funds. [http://seekingalpha.com/article/1848261-john-hussman-chumps-champs-and-bamboo ]
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[Quote No.48219] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The fact that the market goes up doesn't necessarily make it good value." - Mark Faber
[http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/international-markets/superbear-marc-faber-sees-opportunities_993536.html?utm_source=ref_article ]
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[Quote No.48224] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Among the many pendulums that swing in the investments world – such as between fear and greed, and between depression and euphoria – one of the most important is the swing between risk aversion and risk tolerance. Risk aversion is the essential element in sane markets. People are supposed to prefer safety over uncertainty, all other things being equal. When investors are sufficiently risk averse, they’ll (a) approach risky investments with caution and skepticism, (b) perform thorough due diligence, incorporating conservative assumptions, and (c) demand healthy incremental return as compensation for accepting incremental risk. This sort of behavior makes the market a relatively safe place. But when investors drop their risk aversion and become risk-tolerant instead, they turn bold and trusting, fail to do as much due diligence, base their analysis on aggressive assumptions, and forget to demand adequate risk premiums as a reward for bearing increased risk. The result is a more dangerous world where asset prices are higher, prospective returns are lower, risk is elevated, the quality and safety of new issues deteriorates, and the premium for bearing risk is insufficient. It’s one of my first principles that we never know where we’re going – given the unreliability of macro forecasting – but we ought to know where we are. 'Where we are' means what the temperature of the market is: Are investors risk-averse or risk-tolerant? Are they behaving cautiously or aggressively? And thus is the market a safe place or a risky one?" - Tyler Durden
[http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-27/howard-marks-markets-are-riskier-any-time-depths-20089-crisis ]
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[Quote No.48225] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Bubbles are created when investors do not recognize when rising asset prices get detached from underlying fundamentals." - Robert Shiller
Nobel Prize winner in economics. [http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-01/shiller-worried-about-boom-us-stocks-bubbles-look ]
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[Quote No.48226] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Bubbles and who can see them:] ...the economy looks better: soaring asset prices. Farmland, housing, art, junk bonds, even sovereign junk bonds, more palatable bonds, stocks... irrespective of the underlying economic conditions. Hence, bubble talk. That’s exactly how it happened in 1999. At first, a few people were talking and writing about the bubble, describing it, outlining its irrationality. They were ignored, then pounced on by a horde of pundits who considered them demented fear mongers. The pundits then invented metrics to show why these stocks were actually worth that much, nay, twice that much. As the markets continued to skyrocket 1999, more and more people were talking and writing about the bubble. The Fed denied its existence. CNBC belittled the idea. Wall Street came up with new metrics. But everyone in the market worth his or her salt knew it was a bubble. All they wanted was ride it up to the top and then get out, and they raked it in, with their curser never further than a quarter inch from the sell button. Alas, there were plenty of false alarms when they clicked that sell button only to chase the same stocks higher a little later. And finally, people were writing and talking about how everyone was writing and talking about the bubble, how bubble talk has become a bubble itself, and pundits cited the fact that so many people were writing and talking about the bubble as a reason why, by definition, the bubble could not exist. This happened in 1999. And this where we are today [in late 2013]. Last week, CNBC found that Google searches in the US in November for the term 'stock bubble' was the highest since 2007 just before the last bubble blew up. Unfortunately, search data only goes back to 2004, so there is no comparison to 1999. CNBC managed to twist this into a bullish signal. 'That means, conclusively, that there is no stock bubble,' it quoted Jim Iuorio of TJM Institutional Services as saying. The fact that this sort of thing shows up on CNBC is a sign of a bubble. Everybody loves bubbles [just like everybody enjoys the drinking high at the party before the hangover headache the next day]. Governments love them because tax revenues balloon as people sell one overpriced asset to buy another and pay taxes on huge but ephemeral gains, and as brokers and banks and other Wall Street players siphon off fees and make fat profits, some of which they can’t shelter from taxes. Bubble rain manna on every level of government. The financial media love them because they make them feel relevant. Traders love them because bubbles make them feel smart. Companies love them because they can print money by issuing overpriced stock to buy other overpriced companies and enrich executives. The Fed loves them because bubbles show it can actually do something other than creating inflation and devaluing the dollar. All of these entities routinely deny the existence of a bubble. Though nearly everyone saw the bubble in 1999, it was hard to tell when it would be over, and the money was too good and too easy to not participate. Burned by too many false alarms, investors were still buying on the dip or hanging on to their portfolios, hoping for the best, even as the hot air was hissing out of the bubble, destroying their wealth, the gains they’d already paid taxes on, and their idea of how they’d retire. Same in 2007. It’s easy to see a bubble. It’s harder than heck to see when it ends. [It takes great discipline to leave the party before the ugly end.] But a stock bubble cannot deflate until after retail investors have poured their money into it – the purpose of a bubble being redistribution of wealth from latecomers ['sell to greater fools'] who put their hard-earned life savings at risk to early investors... Stocks are a zero-sum game. Every share bought by a late retail investor must be sold by an earlier investor. When retail investors finally pour money into the market, they’re handing it to those who are pulling their money out – and end up holding the bag." - Wolf Richter
[http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2013/11/25/the-stock-bubble-in-context-will-the-last-bear-please-turn-o.html ]
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[Quote No.48235] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Reversion to the mean:] Excess generally causes reaction, and produces a change in the opposite direction, whether it be in the seasons, or in individuals, or in governments [or in markets]." - Plato

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[Quote No.48249] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Avoid the crowd. Do your own thinking independently. Be the chess player, not the chess piece." - Ralph Charell

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[Quote No.48258] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Against Keynesian government fiscal and monetary intervention in the free market pricing and communication system:] ...To act on the belief that we possess the knowledge and the power which enable us to shape the processes of society entirely to our liking, knowledge which in fact we do not possess, is likely to make us do much harm. In the physical sciences there may be little objection to trying to do the impossible; one might even feel that one ought not to discourage the over-confident because their experiments may after all produce some new insights. But in the social field the erroneous belief that the exercise of some power would have beneficial consequences is likely to lead to a new power to coerce other men being conferred on some authority. Even if such power is not in itself bad, its exercise is likely to impede the functioning of those spontaneous ordering forces by which, without understanding them, man is in fact so largely assisted in the pursuit of his aims. We are only beginning to understand on how subtle a communication system the functioning of an advanced industrial society is based—a communications system which we call the market and which turns out to be a more efficient mechanism for digesting dispersed information than any that man has deliberately designed. If man is not to do more harm than good in his efforts to improve the social order, he will have to learn that in this, as in all other fields where essential complexity of an organized kind prevails, he cannot acquire the full knowledge which would make mastery of the events possible. He will therefore have to use what knowledge he can achieve, not to shape the results as the craftsman shapes his handiwork, but rather to cultivate a growth by providing the appropriate environment, in the manner in which the gardener does this for his plants. There is danger in the exuberant feeling of ever growing power which the advance of the physical sciences has engendered and which tempts man to try, 'dizzy with success,' to use a characteristic phrase of early communism, to subject not only our natural but also our human environment to the control of a human will. The recognition of the insuperable limits to his knowledge ought indeed to teach the student of society a lesson of humility which should guard him against becoming an accomplice in men's fatal striving to control society — a striving which makes him not only a tyrant over his fellows, but which may well make him the destroyer of a civilization which no brain has designed but which has grown from the free efforts of millions of individuals. " - Friedrich A. Hayek
Free market advocating economist. Quote from his lecture 'The Pretense of Knowledge,' delivered upon accepting the Nobel Prize in economics, Dec. 11, 1974.
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[Quote No.48291] Need Area: Money > Invest
"One thing that is axiomatic in this [investing] business: I have never ever seen the sell-side [brokers and analysts] predict a recession. There are a number of reasons for that, but key among them is the personal career risk of calling a recession and being wrong. Both the sell-side and the buy-side tend to do much better when the economy and the markets are doing well, so who wants to be a party-pooper. That is the nature of the beast." - Albert Edwards
Societe Generale investment strategist. [http://www.businessinsider.com.au/albert-edwards-profit-margin-recession-2013-11 ]
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[Quote No.48300] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Here is a quote from a 'bear' finally conceding to the 'bull' trend with the time-honoured phrase 'It is different this time!' as fundamental valuation methods and time-proven investing rules are being deliberately countered by central bank monetary policy. According to Austrian economic theory this is re-blowing massive real estate, bond and share market bubbles due to interest rates being too low for too long and so sending the wrong economic co-ordinating price signals which will therefore end in another massive crash, when the central banks change their strategies or those monetary policies lose their efficacy:] ...I'm going to ask you to consider the US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) market. As you know, we allocate a lot of time and risk capital to equities. Their malleability allied with low transaction costs and liquidity make them an excellent way for us to invest in our macro [investing] narratives. But we find it hard to buy and sell equities based on [fundamental] valuations. Doing it like this is just too imprecise. So we prefer the certainty of inflation expectations: you should be long equities if inflation expectations are trending higher — or more specifically for us when the 10-year inflation expectation, derived from the TIPS market, is greater than its 200 day moving average. Over the last decade [2003-13] you could have done this and nothing else and escaped most criticism. A simple trading rule where one is long S&P futures when the condition is met, and flat otherwise, has produced a return of 75% since the 1st of January 2003 (around the bottom of the TMT crash) [it is 2013 now so 75% in 10 years or approximately 6% pa before dividends]. A long-only strategy has produced better gains - almost 95% - but using the rule would have lowered your maximum drawdown from 56% to just 20%. So once you adjust for volatility you can say that you would have done better investing guided by trend inflation expectations than not. The 10-year expectation moved below its 200 day moving average in April this year. And yet we have taken a resolutely contrarian message from this signal. Don't sell equities [Don't follow that trading rule...but why?]. China's pledge to maintain high GDP growth rates by ploughing on with capacity enhancing supply additions to its fixed capital formation, even at a time when the still risk averse banking system in Europe and America [that is over-leveraged] is failing to produce a consumer boom in the West, is fast building global deflationary pressure [which threatens to reduce the capital value of bank loan collateral and make loan payback even more difficult as per Fisher's debt-deflation explanation of the Great Depression]. That's the resounding message from the TIPS market. And in a world of two way causality, that could continue to prove immensely bullish [for the markets that use interest rates to discount future cash flow for present value calculations]. Why? Because the Fed uses this criteria as its principal benchmark for determining whether to taper [reduce Quantitative Easing - 'money printing' and thereby decrease liquidity and so raise interest rates which reduces discounted cash flow present value calculations] or not. So imagine the virtuous loop that runs through asset prices today. The Fed begins QE to thwart neo-mercantilism [where currency exchange rates are kept too low to enhance exports and capital investment] and capture more of its own domestic expansion. The Chinese witness a shortfall in their GDP growth rates as their overseas expansion moderates [which threatens their social stability which is based on continually raising living standards]. This robs them of the ability to loosen policy in the West. They counter by embarking on more fixed capital formation to maintain a floor on domestic GDP growth. This adds to the global [over-]supply equation that drives break-even inflation expectations lower and leads the Fed to once more embark on yet looser monetary conditions. It is a reflexive cycle that can drive mice to be madder and madder. Or braver and braver. Depends how you look at it. But either way, only a foolish investor would stand in the way of this bull market. It'll crash of course, just not for a while. [Also that's not the only deflationary force globally as the Japanese have embarked on a massive campaign of Quantitative Easing too to lower their exchange rate and thereby increase imported inflation and increase their exports which is exporting deflation to other countries. This is a form of currency manipulation or financial war that is being adopted by countries as they become more frightened of another debt-deflation depression and rising domestic unemployment.] " - Hugh Hendry
Manager for the Eclectica Fund. Quote from their December 2013 Letter to investors. [http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-06/hugh-hendry-throws-bearish-towel-his-full-must-read-letter ]
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[Quote No.48302] Need Area: Money > Invest
"To buy when others are despondently selling and sell when others are greedily buying requires the greatest fortitude and pays the greatest reward." - Sir John Templeton

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[Quote No.48304] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[When trying to persuade a union spokesperson, financial analyst, economist, central banker or interventionist politician, remember...] it is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it." - Upton Sinclair

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[Quote No.48315] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Optimism, pessimism and risk in investing:] When everyone believes something is risky, their unwillingness to buy usually reduces its price to the point where it’s not risky at all. Broadly negative opinion can make it the least risky thing, since all optimism has been driven out of its price. And, of course, as demonstrated by the experience of Nifty-Fifty investors, when everyone believes something embodies no risk, they usually bid it up to the point where it’s enormously risky. No risk is feared, and thus no reward for risk bearing – no 'risk premium' –is demanded or provided. That can make the thing that’s most esteemed the riskiest. [The Nifty Fifty refers to a group of fifty American blue chip shares in the 1960s and '70s. They were extremely well-regarded growth stocks and hence were sold at extremely high earnings multiples, reaching a frothy-average of 41.9 in 1972. The Nifty Fifty were eventually decimated during the 1973-1974 bear market in the USA.]" - Howard Marks
He is the co-founder of asset management firm Oaktree Capital. Quote from his book, 'The Most Important Thing'. [http://www.fool.sg/2013/11/29/when-is-it-the-riskiest-time-to-invest/ ]
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[Quote No.48316] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The whole idea that the stock market reflects fundamentals is, I think, wrong. It really reflects psychology. The aggregate stock market reflects psychology more than fundamentals." - Robert Shiller
Yale University economist and co-winner of 2013 Nobel Prize in economics. [http://www.pbs.org/newshour/businessdesk/2013/12/nobel-laureate-bob-shiller-on.html ]
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[Quote No.48317] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[On the virtue of a contrary opinion to the market in order to buy greedily when most are selling fearfully and to sell fearfully when most are buying greedily:] It is the long-term investor, he who most promotes the public interest, who will in practice come in for the most criticism. For it is in the essence of his behaviour that he should be eccentric, unconventional and rash in the eyes of average opinion." - John Maynard Keynes
Famous economist and noted investor. [http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=81B7CE5A-F073-BF6D-41F29B4AC61F5BCB ]
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[Quote No.48321] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The stock market is the story of cycles and of the human behavior that is responsible for overreactions in both directions." - Seth Klarman
He founded in 1982 the hedge fund the Baupost Group and is a very highly regarded value share investor.
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[Quote No.48322] Need Area: Money > Invest
"If you chase momentum and excitement, if you run with the crowd, buying when others are buying, you're guaranteed to lose [in the long run]. ... In this [investing] business, you're either a contrarian or road kill." - Doug Casey
Value investor. Quote from his book, 'Right On The Money'.
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[Quote No.48323] Need Area: Money > Invest
"There's a little known rule of thumb in the economics world: when the annual growth rate of several economic indicators falls below 2 percent, the [US] macro economy eventually slides into recession. Currently [late 2013] several of these statistics are flashing warning signals: real GDP (1.6 percent)[Over the last six quarters, the average quarterly increase in real GDP has been 1.75% - that has traditionally signaled an economic recession - at least every time since 1948], real disposable personal incomes (2 percent), real consumer spending (1.7 percent), and real final sales of domestic product (1.6 percent). These are the broadest measures, possessing exceptional recession predicting abilities. The explanation for this is simple: like riding a bicycle, if you don't pedal, you tip over. And when the tier one indicators don't advance by a 2 percent pace, the economy grinds to a halt amid softer employment, incomes, and spending." - Rich Yamarone
Chief Economist, Bloomberg and creator of the Bloomberg Orange Book, a compilation of macroeconomic anecdotes gleaned from the comments CEOs and CFOs make on their quarterly earnings conference calls. [refer http://www.mauldineconomics.com/outsidethebox ]
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[Quote No.48356] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Where there is much to risk, there is much to consider. " - Platen

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