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  Quotations - Invest  
[Quote No.48375] Need Area: Money > Invest
"...if you only seek out people that agree with you, then your life is going to be boring. As I’ve written in the past, I constantly seek out people who disagree with me in investing and in life, because they poke holes in my arguments. These people will make you learn, because you’ll have to dig deeper. Sometimes you'll have to change your mind because you were wrong, and sometimes additional thinking will let you reconfirm your original thesis." - Vitaliy N. Katsenelson
CFA, Chief Investment Officer at Investment Management Associates in Denver, Colo. He is the author of 'The Little Book of Sideways Markets' (Wiley, December 2010).
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[Quote No.48506] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Sentiment measures of Strong Economic Optimism is a Contrary Indicator for the share market and other markets:] Wall Street remains exuberant about economic prospects. Last week brought a 6-year high in consumer confidence, evidently supporting the idea that the consumer remains strong and the economic expansion remains intact. Unfortunately, if you examine the data, you'll quickly discover that consumer confidence is a lagging indicator, well explained by past movements in GDP, employment, and capacity utilization. Worse, for the stock market, it's a contrary indicator. This is a fact that I've noted at both extremes, not only in early 2000 when new highs in consumer confidence supported a defensive position, but conversely in the early 1990's, when new lows in consumer confidence supported a leveraged position in stocks. High levels of economic optimism are regularly observed at the peaks of both U.S. and foreign economic expansions. This includes the general consensus of individuals, businesses, politicians, central bank officials and notoriously – economists. That shouldn't be surprising. It's the very nature of a peak that it can't be produced except by unusual optimism." - John Hussman
Fund manager. Quote from his 'Hussman Weekly Market Comment', 6th August, 2007 just prior to a 30% crash on the US and global share markets.
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[Quote No.48511] Need Area: Money > Invest
"It is largely the fluctuations which throw up the bargains and the uncertainty due to fluctuations which prevents other people from taking advantage of them." - John Maynard Keynes

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[Quote No.48527] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Baron Rothschild may have been an unsavory character in many ways, but he was absolutely correct when he stated that 'the time to buy is when blood is in the streets.' This statement perfectly captures the essence of crisis investing. The Chinese symbol for crisis is actually a combination of two symbols: the symbol for danger and the symbol for opportunity. The danger is what everybody sees; the opportunity is never quite as obvious as the danger, but it's always there. Massive fortunes have been made throughout history with crisis investing, by which astute investors took advantage of the semi-hidden opportunities wrapped in an outward cloak of apparent danger in crisis markets. " - Nick Giambruno
Nick is a CFA charterholder and holds a Bachelor's Degree in Finance, summa cum laude. He is the Senior Editor at InternationalMan.com.
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[Quote No.48573] Need Area: Money > Invest
"A basic equation says that growth of [real - i.e. after inflation] GDP is equal to the rate of productivity growth times the rate of population growth. When you break it down, it is really the working-age population that matters. If one part of the equation, the size of the working-age population, is flat or falling, productivity must rise even faster to offset it." - John Mauldin
[http://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=frontline ]
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[Quote No.48580] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Don't stress about the closed doors behind you. New doors are opening if you keep moving forward." - Thema Davis

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[Quote No.48628] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Never follow the crowd." - Bernard M. Baruch

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[Quote No.48640] Need Area: Money > Invest
"When you believe in things that you don't understand, then you suffer. Superstition ain't the way!" - Stevie Wonder
Quote from his song, 'Superstition', 1972.
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[Quote No.48642] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Panics [and share market crashes] do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal in hopelessly unproductive works [often encouraged by central bank monetary policy interest rates unsustainably too low for too long]. " - John Mills
19th century British businessman
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[Quote No.48661] Need Area: Money > Invest
"I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon." - Nathan Rothschild

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[Quote No.48664] Need Area: Money > Invest
"There is an adage among old hands in the art world that the emergence of art investment funds signals that a boom is over [and a recession is about to begin]. This was true in the late 1980s and again in 2006-08." - Michael Findlay
Quote from his book, 'The Value of Art: Money, Power, Beauty'.
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[Quote No.48722] Need Area: Money > Invest
"A weaker currency gives exporters the flexibility to cut prices of the goods they sell overseas and it inflates repatriated profits, while a stronger currency undercuts those gains." - unknown

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[Quote No.48729] Need Area: Money > Invest
"...it is much easier [politically] to restructure and reset an economy when it is in recession because everyone yearns for better times to return." - John Abernethy
Chief Investment Officer of Clime investment services. [http://www.clime.com.au/investing-report-archive/disturbing-distortions-asx/?utm_source=IR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MktoIR_060214&mkt_tok=3RkMMJWWfF9wsRonsqrMZKXonjHpfsX56%2BgoUaS%2BlMI%2F0ER3fOvrPUfGjI4AScphI%2BSLDwEYGJlv6SgFS7PFMbZp2bgNUhA%3D#readmore ]
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[Quote No.48740] Need Area: Money > Invest
"People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome." - George Orwell

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[Quote No.48741] Need Area: Money > Invest
"There are two ways to conquer and enslave a nation. One is by the sword. The other is by debt." - John Adams

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[Quote No.48750] Need Area: Money > Invest
"It is better to be out of the market wishing you were in than in wishing you were out. [In other words, losing money is more painful than making money is joyous.]" - Stock Market Saying

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[Quote No.48856] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Trading is not logical - its psychological! " - Old Trading Adage

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[Quote No.48910] Need Area: Money > Invest
"A price increase is a message about scarcity. Price controls are like shooting the messenger." - Alexander Tabarrok
Economist
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[Quote No.48925] Need Area: Money > Invest
"In the last analysis sound judgment will prevail. " - Joseph Cannon

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[Quote No.49022] Need Area: Money > Invest
"A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends." - Barton Biggs
Managing partner at very successful hedge fund, Traxis Partners.
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[Quote No.49057] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The only investors who shouldn’t diversify are those who are right 100% of the time." - Sir John Templeton

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[Quote No.49079] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[In periods of market over-valuation at the top of booms... one must wait for the rain. Impatient, crowd-following investors are all too willing to wastefully scatter seeds onto this parched desert, thinking that this is their only chance to sow. To wait patiently in the expectation of fertile soil and rain is not an act of pessimism, but an act of optimism and informed experience." - John Hussman
Fund manager. [http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-10/hussman-warns-sp-500-over-valuation-now-higher-housing-2006 ]
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[Quote No.49124] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Experience taught me a few things. One is to listen to your gut, no matter how good something sounds on paper. The second is that you’re generally better off sticking with what you know. And the third is that sometimes your best investments are the ones you don’t make." - Donald Trump

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[Quote No.49135] Need Area: Money > Invest
"...identifying market tops...anyone concerned about a top should be watching for very specific [technical charting rather than fundamental and economic indicator] warning signs...the health of a bull market can be observed by watching internal indicators that provide insight into the overall appetite for equity accumulation. These four include: -1. New 52-Week Highs -2. Market Breadth (Advanced/Decline Line) -3. Capitalization: Small Cap, Mid Cap, Large Cap -4. Percentage of Stocks at 20% or greater from their recent highs. New 52-week highs are the earliest indication of a market that might be turning unhealthy. Look for divergences between index-price highs and new 52-week highs. When a major index such as the S&P 500 is making new highs but the number of SPX stocks making 52-week peaks begins declining, that divergence is a significant warning sign...this can warn of an eventual top as much as a year ahead of time. The next warning signal is the divergences between the advance/decline line and the broader markets. This often turns south six to eight months ahead of major tops...both the new 52-week highs and advanced/decline line reveal market breadth — a term that describes how much of the market is participating in the advance. When tops occur, we see extreme selectivity — fewer and fewer stocks are pulling the market upward. We saw a classic example in the Nifty Fifty during the 1960s, and again in the dot-com bubble with a handful of leading stocks driving the Nasdaq. The third factor is selectivity by market capitalization size...historically, the first group to roll over is the small caps. The bottom 50% of the market by cap size will begin to falter first, while the rest of the market appears healthy. The usual time period is eight months prior to a top for the smaller issues to fade. The mid- caps — the next 35% or so of equities — will falter four to six months before the high. The tendency for big-cap- dominated indices to peak last is a function of their structure. They are market-cap weighted and therefore can be dominated by a handful of mega-caps. The fourth and last factor worth watching is the percentage of stocks in a bear market. As a rough estimate, any equity down 20% from recent highs can be considered in its own bear market. During healthy bull markets, less than 10% of stocks are in this condition. As the small caps and mid-caps roll over, this percentage will increase. At the market peak, we typically see one-fifth of stocks in their own bear market..." - Paul Desmond
chief strategist and president of Lowry’s Research. [http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/hPCJvLqhcDNsMGCLCSTi9O/How-to-tell-when-the-bull-market-is-turning-bear.html ]
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[Quote No.49136] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Bubbles [in markets] don’t usually stop until sensible investors, value investors, and prudent investors have been hung out to dry and kicked around the block." - Jeremy Grantham
the founder of Boston-based money manager GMO. [http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/03/15/jeremy-grantham-tells-barrons-stocks-are-overpriced-but-dont-call-it-a-bubble/ ]
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[Quote No.49138] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Entrepreneurs are simply those who understand that there is little difference between obstacle and opportunity and are able to turn both to their advantage!" - Niccolo Machiavelli

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[Quote No.49192] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[In a share market boom, before the inevitable bust] ... people know the price of everything and the value of nothing." - Oscar Wilde

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[Quote No.49246] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[The Financial Instability Hypothesis:] ... [Too low interest rates for too long and the false appearance of 'stability' breeds greater risk-taking that when rates change breeds instability through debt servicing difficulties resulting in asset value falls as supply overwhelms demand.] ... Three distinct income-debt relations for economic units, which are labeled as hedge, speculative, and Ponzi finance, can be identified. Hedge financing units are those which can fulfill all of their contractual payment obligations by their cash flows: the greater the weight of equity financing in the liability structure, the greater the likelihood that the unit is a hedge financing unit. Speculative finance units are units that can meet their payment commitments on 'income account' on their liabilities, even as they cannot repay the principle out of income cash flows. Such units need to 'roll over' their liabilities: (e.g. issue new debt to meet commitments on maturing debt). Governments with floating debts, corporations with floating issues of commercial paper, and banks are typically hedge units. For Ponzi units, the cash flows from operations are not sufficient to fulfill either the repayment of principle or the interest due on outstanding debts by their cash flows from operations. Such units can sell assets or borrow. Borrowing to pay interest or selling assets to pay interest (and even dividends) on common stock lowers the equity of a unit, even as it increases liabilities and the prior commitment of future incomes. A unit that Ponzi finances lowers the margin of safety that it offers the holders of its debts. It can be shown that if hedge financing dominates, then the economy may well be an equilibrium seeking and containing system. In contrast, the greater the weight of speculative and Ponzi finance, the greater the likelihood that the economy is a deviation amplifying [boom-bust] system. The first theorem of the financial instability hypothesis is that the economy has financing regimes under which it is stable, and financing regimes in which it is unstable. The second theorem of the financial instability hypothesis is that over periods of prolonged prosperity, the economy transits from financial relations that make for a stable system to financial relations that make for an unstable system. In particular, over a protracted period of good times, capitalist economies tend to move from a financial structure dominated by hedge finance units to a structure in which there is large weight to units engaged in speculative and Ponzi finance. Furthermore, if an economy with a sizeable body of speculative financial units is in an inflationary state, and the authorities attempt to exorcise inflation by monetary constraint, then speculative units will become Ponzi units and the net worth of previously Ponzi units will quickly evaporate. Consequently, units with cash flow shortfalls will be forced to try to make position by selling out position. This is likely to lead to a collapse of asset values. The financial instability hypothesis is a model of a capitalist economy which does not rely upon exogenous shocks to generate business cycles of varying severity. The hypothesis holds that business cycles of history are compounded out of (i) the internal dynamics of capitalist economies, and (ii) the system of interventions and regulations that are designed to keep the economy operating within reasonable bounds. " - Hyman P. Minsky
The Jerome Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. May 1992.
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[Quote No.49269] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Plant a tree today, sit in the shade tomorrow!" - Saying

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[Quote No.49350] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Be very careful not to listen to the Vegas blackjack dealers 'double up to catch up' refrain, suggesting you bet bigger leveraging up if necessary, after a losing streak." - Seymour@imagi-natives.com

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[Quote No.49370] Need Area: Money > Invest
"In the economic sphere an act, a habit, an institution, a law produces not only one effect, but a series of effects. Of these effects, the first alone is immediate; it appears simultaneously with its cause; it is seen. The other effects emerge only subsequently; they are not seen; we are fortunate if we foresee them. There is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one: the bad economist confines himself to the visible effect; the good economist takes into account both the effect that can be seen and those effects that must be foreseen. Yet this difference is tremendous; for it almost always happens that when the immediate consequence is favorable, the later consequences are disastrous, and vice versa. Whence it follows that the bad economist pursues a small present good that will be followed by a great evil to come, while the good economist pursues a great good to come, at the risk of a small present evil." - Frederic Bastiat
From his 1850 essay, 'That Which Is Seen and That Which Is Unseen'.
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[Quote No.49371] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Over the last fifty years, every investment boom coupled with excessive credit growth has ended in a hard landing, from the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s, to Japan in 1989, East Asia in 1997, and the United States during both the late 1990s internet bubble and the mid-2000s housing bubble. The lesson is always the same, and it is hard to avoid. Economic miracles are almost always too good to be true. Broad-based, debt-fueled overinvestment (misallocation of capital) may appear to kick economic growth into overdrive for a while; but eventually disappointing returns and the consequent selling lead to investment losses, defaults, and banking panics. And in cases where foreign capital seeking strong growth in already highly valued assets drives the investment boom, the miracle often ends with capital flight and currency collapse. " - John Mauldin
'Thoughts from the Frontline: The Lions in the Grass, Revisited', Apr 05, 2014.
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[Quote No.49372] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Over a period of time long [interest] rates, if left to their own devices, always converge to the nominal GDP growth rate (this was called the 'golden rule' by Economics Nobel laureate Maurice Allais, and [this] is the core belief in Knut Wicksell’s theory). However, a central bank can fight against this natural tendency by maintaining short rates at abnormally low levels, as the Federal Reserve did from the early 1970s until 1980 and again since 2002. During these two periods long rates were conspicuously lower than growth rates, violating the golden rule. If negative, the difference between long bond rates and the economic growth rate is effectively a subsidy paid by the saver to the government. In short, this difference measures the amount of financial repression taking place in an economy. The fact that it is not paid to the Treasury does not mean it doesn’t exist. It is a tax paid by a nation’s savers – e.g., pensioners in Peoria... This shows us that US savers have been paying a virtual tax equivalent to between 1% and 2% of GDP almost every year since 2002 – a sign of the 'euthanasia of the rentier' central to every Keynesian analysis. The problem is that subsidizing government spending ultimately leads to lower productivity, slower structural growth and higher financial-crisis risk. We saw a similar euthanasia from 1966 to 1980, when the real structural growth rate of the economy was also in collapse... The re-imposition of that dreadful tax by Alan Greenspan in 2002, only to be further aggravated by his successor Ben Bernanke, is a key factor behind the falling structural growth rate, the financial crisis and the subsequent slow recovery. Unnaturally low funding costs undermine the structural growth rate of the US economy, because of capital misallocation. The losers in this deal are usually ordinary folk. Pensioners get no interest on their savings, while rich investors use cheap capital to chase up the cost of property, oil, etc. The Gini coefficient rises, as the poor are seldom asset-rich, and real disposable incomes take a hit as prices rise. Sometimes banks are pressured to make up the shortfall with consumer loans to the struggling classes – adding to the bonfire when the inevitable financial crisis comes. At the end of the day, it is simple. Savings equal investments, so any tax on savings leads to lower economic growth over time. We may be seeing declining ratios in government spending as a percentage of GDP, but this is really an accounting decline. Financial repression means the government is still taxing the savers, leaving less aside for meaningful investment in the future." - Charles Gave
[http://research.gavekal.com/content.php/9914-The-Euthanasia-Of-Pensioners-In-Peoria-by-Charles-Gave ]
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[Quote No.49375] Need Area: Money > Invest
"An expert is a person who has made all the mistakes that can be made in a very narrow field!" - Niels Bohr

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[Quote No.49398] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Under a fiat money standard, governments (or their central banks) may obligate themselves to bail out, with increased issues of standard money, any bank or any major bank in distress. In the late nineteenth century, the principle became accepted that the central bank must act as the 'lender of last resort,' which will lend money freely to banks threatened with failure. Another recent American device to abolish the confidence limitation on bank credit is 'deposit insurance,' whereby the government guarantees to furnish paper money to redeem the banks' demand liabilities. These and similar devices remove the market brakes on rampant credit expansion [which the Austrian School of economics sees as the cause of the mal-investment inherent in any extreme boom bust business cycle]." - Murray Rothbard
'Man, Economy, and State', 1962.
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[Quote No.49448] Need Area: Money > Invest
"SIGNS OF MARKET BOTTOMS AND TOPS: ---------------------MARKET BOTTOM SIGNS:----------------------- ----------Corporate: 1. Almost no M&A 2. Almost no IPOs 3. Almost no share buybacks 4. Dividends are cut and capex reduced 5. Corporations focus on deleveraging 6. Almost no new money for venture capital 7. Many bankruptcies and much distress 8. Companies restate financials and write down assets ----------Valuation 1. Low price to sales and EV/EBITDA 2. PE's may be distorted by losses, but many very low 3. Many companies trading below book value 4. Many companies trading near net working capital ----------Economic 1. Central banks have eased for at least six to twelve months 2. Building permits have declined for a year 3. Leading economic indicators are low but long leading rising 4. Recession declared officially, news is stale 5. ISM has been negative for months 6. ISM New Order to Inventory turns up ----------Market 1. Previous darling sectors are hated 2. Credit spreads are wide 3. Credit is tight and only available to high quality borrowers 4. Margin debt reduced and sharply negative year on year 5. Frequent episodes of high volume selling and panic 6. Yield curves have been steepening for months 7. Volatility is high for a sustained period 8. Closed end funds may trade at discounts to asset value 9. Six months of ‘distribution’, i.e. more new lows 10. 20 to 50 week won't turn up until rally has already started 11. Advance-Decline becomes more positive 12. Dow Market positive divergence 13. Market already down 20% 14. Coppock Signal turning up from very low position ----------Sentiment 1. Investor are cautious and out of the market 2. No one is bullish 3. Front covers of newspapers and magazines are negative 4. Art and luxury stocks are hurt 5. Consumer sentiment is negative and depressed 6. Financial press and TV becomes more popular ---------------------MARKET TOP SIGNS:--------------------------- ----------Corporate: 1. Wave of M&A and/or leveraged buyouts 2. Many low quality IPOs 3. Large share buybacks 4. Dividends are less common and capex surges 5. High degree of corporate leverage 6. Venture capitalists are viewed as heroes 7. Cash flow insufficient for many companies, but obtaining loans 8. Accounting becomes more questionable ----------Valuation: 1. High Price to sales 2. CAPE Shiller PE high 3. Companies trade at many multiples of book value 4. Frequent vendor financing of working capital ----------Economic: 1. Central banks tightening policy 2. Building permits are falling 3. Leading economic indicators turning down 4. Most economists doubt recession 5. ISM positive but turning negative 6. ISM New Order to Inventory Turns down ----------Market: 1. Value managers are losing their reputation 2. Credit spreads are low but rising 3. Many bonds have low/junk ratings 4. High year over year increase in margin debt 5. Frequent days of climax buying 6. Yield curve is inverting or flattening 7. Volatility is low but rising 8. Closed end funds trade at premium 9. More new lows than new highs 10. 20 week 50 week negative crossover 11. Advance-Decline turns negative 12. Dow Market Negative Divergences 13. Market in topping pattern 14. Coppock turning down, many stocks below 200 day moving avg ----------Sentiment: 1. Investors are momentum driven 2. Bears have given up 3. Front covers of newspapers and magazines are euphoric 4. Art market is booming as are luxuries 5. Consumer sentiment is falling from a high level " - Variant Perception
[http://www.variantperception.com/sites/default/files/reports/sr/vp_market_tops.pdf ]
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[Quote No.49635] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Whenever equities are trending in a particular direction, we like to track the high yield credit [junk bond] markets in order to get a confirmation of the trend. High yield spreads measure the difference in yield between junk rated bonds and treasuries of comparable maturity. When spreads are rising it indicates that investors are demanding more yield in order to take on the added risk of the issuers [expecting a rise in default rates especially if going into a liquidity crisis and-or recession], while falling spreads indicate that investors are comfortable taking on the added risk. [High yield spreads at their lowest levels when share markets peak and vice versa. Other interesting bond con formation comes from inspecting the government bond yield curve, the steeper over time the more banks are inclined to lend but if it inverts it usually signals a recession will start within the next four financial quarters.]" - Bespoke Investment Group
[http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2013/12/10/high-yield-spreads-hit-a-six-year-low.html ]
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[Quote No.49847] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Excessively low interest rates distort business incentives and creates a temporary boom and then a crash:] The modern world of debt-besotted economies and central bank printing press dominated financial systems resolutely refuses to heed the lessons of history. ...During the final blow-off phase of the US stock market in 1928-1929, for example, margin lending nearly doubled from 5% to 10% of GDP in 12 months and the vast proportion of that expansion came from business corporations speculating with excess cash — much of it raised on the stock market! Even more to the point is the even crazier bubble blow-off in Japan during 1988-1990, which was given the name Zeitech for financial engineering. In that case corporations raised massive amounts of cash in the convertible preferred and bond market and cycled it back into the stock market on its way to 50,000 [and 25 years of deflation and falling stock and real estate markets]. " - David A. Stockman
Former U.S. politician and businessman, who served as a Republican U.S. Representative from the state of Michigan and as the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (1981–1985). Quoted from his website May 2, 2014. [http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/zaitech-with-a-chinese-accent-beijings-tepid-efforts-to-slow-the-credit-boom-are-springing-giant-leaks-with-classic-end-of-bubble-earmarks/ ]
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[Quote No.49912] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The Typical Characteristics of a Stock Market Mania [Market Bull-Bubble before it Crashes]: --- 1. This-time-is-different mentality. Throughout history, successive market manias have been rationalized with the argument that history is no longer a reliable guide to the future. Both the ‘new era’ of the 1920s and ‘new paradigm’ of the 1990s were marked by a ‘this-time-is-different’ mentality. The same mode of thinking is evident again today. U.S. profit margins are currently at peak levels and the profit share of GDP in the United States is more than two standard deviations above its long-term mean (based on data going back to the 1920s). The U.S. profits dataset is the most reliably mean-reverting financial series available, claims Andrew Smithers of Smithers & Co. Most commentary, however, assumes that U.S. profits have reached, in Irving Fisher’s immortal phrase, a ‘permanently high plateau.’ As John Hussman of Hussman Funds comments, ‘Believing that historical tendencies have evolved into a new paradigm will likely have the same results as playing leapfrog with a unicorn.’ Painful. --- 2. Moral hazard. Speculative bubbles tend to form when market participants believe that financial risk has been underwritten by the authorities. The ‘Greenspan Put’ appeared in the late 1990s after it became clear that the Fed was prepared to support falling markets but wasn’t going to act against the bubble in technology stocks. Fed policy hasn’t significantly changed since then. Monetary policy in the aftermath of the financial crisis has aimed to put a floor under asset prices, encouraging investors to take on more risk. As a consequence, U.S. household wealth – comprising largely of home equity and stocks – has rebounded to a near-record level of 472% of GDP, nearly 100% above its long-term mean. Whenever a cloud appears over Wall Street, market participants have come to expect more quantitative easing and guarantees of perpetually low interest rates. The personnel may change at the Fed, but the Greenspan Put remains in place. --- 3. Easy money. Great speculative bubbles have generally been accompanied by periods of low interest rates. Greenspan’s easy money policies in the last decade inflated the U.S. housing bubble, along with numerous other bubbles around the world. Bernanke’s cure for the economy in the wake of the financial crisis has been more of the same. For more than five years, U.S. real interest rates have been maintained at negative levels. An avowed aim of the Fed’s quantitative easing has been to push down long-term interest rates in order to boost both the stock market and home prices. In particular, lowering the long-term discount rate has boosted the valuation of growth stocks. --- 4. Overblown growth stories. Another common feature of a bubble is the overblown growth story. We witnessed this during the Dotcom bubble, ad nauseam. In the late 1990s we were told that tech stocks were experiencing ‘S-curve’ growth (which posits very rapid growth in the near term); investors were also encouraged to value the ‘real options’ of Internet stocks from future income streams yet to be conceived. Many of today’s high profile growth stocks – operating in fields such as social networking, electric cars, biotechnology, and, of course, the Internet – have been boosted by similar wishful thinking. Just as there were serial railway bubbles over the course of the 19th century, Internet stocks in the age of Dotcom 2.0 appear to be experiencing what my colleague James Montier has termed a ‘bubble echo.’ --- 5. No valuation anchor. The most speculative markets – from the 17th century Dutch tulip mania onwards – have been marked by the absence of any valuation anchor; when there’s no income to tether the speculator’s imagination, asset prices can become unbounded. Our electronic age has even come up with a digital version of the Semper Augustus tulip. The fact that Bitcoin – the best known among the dozens of competing crypto-currencies – soared by 5,500% during the course of 2013 is testimony to the strength of the recent speculative tempo. Needless to say, most of the recent stock market darlings – Netflix, Facebook, Tesla, and Twitter – have little or nothing in the way of profits. Internet retailer Amazon.com, whose margins have deteriorated in recent years yet whose stock soared nearly 60% in 2013, is the poster child for a market that is more obsessed with growth than profitability. --- 6. Conspicuous consumption. Asset price bubbles are associated with quick fortunes, rising inequality, and luxury spending booms. Since the spring of 2009, not only has the Fed engineered a strong rebound in the level of household wealth, but the richest part of the population has enjoyed the greatest share of the gains. Luxury spending has surged globally since the crisis. The art market provides an excellent barometer of the speculative mood, given art prices depend entirely upon what other people are prepared to pay. A bubble in modern and contemporary art, which was evident before the financial crisis, has returned. Last November, a sculpture by Jeff Koons – Balloon Dog (Orange) – fetched $58 million at auction, a record sum for a work by a living artist. The contemporary collector apparently isn’t fazed by the fact that this dog was one of five ‘unique’ versions or that Koons himself didn’t produce the work by his own hand but had it made in a factory. The same month, a painting by Francis Bacon sold for $142 million, the highest price ever paid for any work at auction. --- 7. Ponzi finance. Manic markets are often marked by a decline in credit standards. In the last decade, subprime debt inflated the U.S. real estate bubble. The financial crisis may have had many unpleasant after-effects, but it hasn’t diminished the appetite for low quality U.S. credit. In fact, we have recently witnessed the lowest yields for junk bonds in history. The quality of debt issuance has been deteriorating. Last year, nearly two out of three corporate bond issues carried a junk rating. Last year, total issuance of high yield and leveraged loans exceeded $1 trillion. More than half of the 2013 vintage leveraged loans came without the traditional covenants to protect investors. The decline in the quality of credit has attracted the attention of Jeremy Stein, one of the more market-savvy Fed governors. Stein’s boss, Janet Yellen, has also expressed concern about the manic leveraged loan market. --- 8. Irrational exuberance. Valuation is the truest measure of speculative mood. There are other ways to take the market’s pulse, however. Most conventional measures of market sentiment have become very elevated over the past year. The IPO market in 2013 and into the first quarter of 2014 has become particularly speculative. New IPOs in 2013 rose on average by 20% on their first day’s trading (Twitter rose 74% on the day it came to the market last November). Nearly three-quarters of the IPOs, which were launched in the six months to March, produced no profits. A good portion of these profitless IPOs, in particular those of the biotech variety, hadn’t even got around to generating anything by way of revenue. They are story stocks, pure and simple. Other sentiment measures have been telling the same story. The trading activity of corporate insiders is a reasonably good indicator of managements’ view on the intrinsic value of their companies. Recently, the ratio of insider sales to purchases has climbed to near record levels. Equity mutual fund flows – another commonly cited sentiment indicator – have also picked up lately, while household cash balances (as a share of total assets) have declined. Margin debt as a share of GDP is close to its peak level. Market volatility has been trending downwards, while the daily correlation of stocks – another useful gauge of the market’s fear level – has also come down. " - Edward Chancellor
From fund manager GMO. [http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-05/eight-characteristics-stock-market-mania ]
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[Quote No.50161] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Central bankers always try to avoid their last big mistake. So every time there's the threat of a contraction in the economy, they'll over stimulate the economy, by printing too much money. The result will be a rising roller coaster of inflation, with each high and low being higher than the preceding one." - Milton Friedman
(1912 - 2006), Nobel Prize-winning economist and economic advisor to US President Ronald Reagan.
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[Quote No.50162] Need Area: Money > Invest
"As a rule, panics [banking and financial market busts] do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." - John Mills
Source: article read before the Manchester Statistical Society, December 11, 1867, on Credit Cycles and the Origin of Commercial Panics.
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[Quote No.50299] Need Area: Money > Invest
"October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February." - Mark Twain

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[Quote No.50374] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Macroeconomics was born as a distinct field in the 1940s as a part of the intellectual response to the Great Depression. The term [macroeconomics] then referred to the body of knowledge and expertise that we hoped would prevent the recurrence of that economic disaster." - Robert Lucas
Winner of the 1995 Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, in his 2003 Presidential Address to the American Economic Association.
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[Quote No.50432] Need Area: Money > Invest
"An existing company [that trades on the share market and] that wishes to raise capital to reduce debt or pursue expansion [in a similar manner to how a company has an IPO - Initial Public Offering] can issue new shares and sell them to investors via a so-called rights offering so that existing shareholders are offered a certain number of shares determined by how many they already have at a certain date - so their percentage holding is not diluted without the opportunity to participate. The new shares are usually offered at a significant discount to the current price to entice people to buy with the uncertainty and risk of share price change later through earnings per share dilution and-or as some of the new shares are sold upon receipt. The rights offering is often fully underwritten, meaning that investment banks agree to buy any shares that investors don't purchase, so the company gets the capital they require and the investment banks get shares they can later sell to their clients or onto the free market." - Unknown

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[Quote No.50467] Need Area: Money > Invest
"In trading as in business if you take care of the downside, the upside will take care of itself." - Boris Schlossberg
of BKForex.com
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[Quote No.50514] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Momentum investing with technical charting:] I don't set trends. I just find out what they are and exploit them." - Dick Clark

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[Quote No.50524] Need Area: Money > Invest
"This is basically advice to be cautious at these [high valuation] levels, because history is not on the side of people who think that they’re going to get strong investment returns from here... Investors who hope to capture the last throes of a bull market don’t realize how quickly they will lose that on the way down... [But]Valuations are not a timing tool. If you’re a value investor, you’ve got to be prepared to take heat for a long time, because mean reversion does not happen overnight [so this over-valuation could go on longer than you expect]. " - John Hussman
Manages Hussman Funds. [http://advisorperspectives.com/newsletters14/John_Hussman-Really_Mean_Reversion.php ]
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[Quote No.50545] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The stock market is filled with people who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing." - Philip Fisher

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[Quote No.50566] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The philosophy of the rich and the poor is this: the rich invest their money and spend what is left. The poor spend their money and invest what is left." - Robert Kiyosaki

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[Quote No.50626] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Deutsche Bank's... preferred measure of equity market emotions [sentiment] is the [S&P 500 trailing] price-to-earnings ratio divided by the [quarterly average] VIX [where 1.2 - 0.8 is realistic and disciplined, but 1.2 - 1.5 is complacent and higher is mania, while 0.8 - 0.5 is sceptical denial and lower than 0.5 is a market crash.]" - Deutsche Bank
[http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-09/deutsche-warns-markets-have-left-complacency-phase-have-entered-full-blown-mania ]
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