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  Quotations - Invest  
[Quote No.56462] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Central banks can lower interest rates and thereby increase the affordability and demand for loans and the 'fair' value for equities and bonds:] As gilt-edged securities [bonds], both public and private, rise in price under pressure of the abundant money supply [which pushes down bond yields], funds flow ever-increasingly into lower-grade [riskier] securities and into equities, and into commodity, real estate and other markets. [As bond yields fall so company earning yields can fall - that is PE ratios rise - and still be attractive in comparison.]" - Allan Sproul
US banker. He joined the US Federal Reserve central bank in 1920 and held the presidency of the powerful Federal Reserve Bank of New York between 1941 and 1956. After that he became a director of the Wells Fargo bank and died in 1978. He wrote this quote in 1946.
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[Quote No.56581] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Value property investing:] A person in the property business should always be prepared to walk away from a deal; patience in property is a key component of success." - Jason Wier
Inspection Angel founder and owner. [http://www.domain.com.au/news/this-man-owns-170-properties-20150908-gjhmt6/ ]
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[Quote No.56582] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Value property investing:] Have clear goals ... only accumulate properties in line with your goals. The three main keys when accumulating property: buy below market value; it should have an upside to growth and a good cash flow. Don't buy with emotion. It's about numbers. Treat property investing like a business with no emotion." - Nathan Birch
Australian property investor. [http://www.domain.com.au/news/this-man-owns-170-properties-20150908-gjhmt6/ ]
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[Quote No.56586] Need Area: Money > Invest
"A recession is [often too simplistically defined as two successive quarterly declines in GDP, when it is better understood as] a self-reinforcing downturn in economic activity, when a drop in spending leads to cutbacks in production and thus jobs, triggering a loss of income that spreads across the country and from industry to industry, hurting sales and in turn feeding back into a further drop in production - in effect a vicious cycle. That's why the proper definition of recession cannot be limited to GDP and industrial production, but must also include jobs, income and spending, all spiraling down in concert. To keep it simple, just look for the 'Three P's' - a pronounced, pervasive and persistent downturn in the broad measures of those factors." - Lakshman Achuthan
of The Economic Cycle Research Institute. Published by CNN on May 6, 2008. [http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-14/2008-flashback-risk-redefining-recession ]
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[Quote No.56588] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Confidence is a plant of slow growth in an aged bosom; youth is the season of credulity." - William Pitt
(1708 - 1778), 1st Earl of Chatham.
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[Quote No.56686] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Stay away from fantasy-method-priced and illiquid stocks, for example 'no revenue - no profit' internet companies in 2000 and 2015, because it will be a blood-bath when their booming markets bust as they always do eventually:] ...the only thing worse than a market with collapsing valuations is a market with no valuations and no liquidity. If stock in a company is worth what somebody will pay for it, what is the stock of a company worth when there is no place to sell it?" - Mark Cuban
Quoted 2015.
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[Quote No.56764] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The way to make money is to buy [cheaply which is] when blood is running in the streets [metaphorically with people upset having lost money and fearful and pessimistic, expecting to lose more]." - John D. Rockefeller

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[Quote No.56765] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Maynard] Keynes himself, at the end [of his life], didn't embrace what is now known as Keynesian economics. Keynes would probably be an Austrian now, because at the end of his life, he came to understand that some of the stuff was being misused [especially by power-hungry politicians]. The main reason people like Keynesian economics is because they think they can be powerful. They can change things. 'I'm a smart guy. I went to an Ivy League school, therefore I know what's best. And if I say it's best, let's do it, and it will make things better.' That's essentially what Keynesianism is now. The market is a lot smarter than all of us, and I wish we would all learn that. It always has been and it always will be." - Jim Rogers
Famously successful investor. Published September 16, 2015. [http://www.internationalman.com/articles/jim-rogers-on-timeless-investing-strategies-you-can-use-to-profit-today ]
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[Quote No.56785] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Emotion is one of the investor's greatest enemies." - Howard Marks
Chairman of the investment firm Oaktree Capital.
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[Quote No.56786] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Investing:] It's not supposed to be easy. Anyone who finds it easy is stupid." - Charlie Munger

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[Quote No.56896] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Now and then genius carries all before it, but not often. We have to climb slowly, with many slips and falls!" - Louisa May Alcott
(1832 - 1888)
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[Quote No.56901] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The idea of letting an asset bubble [or boom, even though measured inflation at present is still lower than 'desired'] run is literally one of the most foolish things a central bank can do... they always end badly... Everyone loves the upside [of too low interest rates for too long] but the clean-up is tough... everyone loves a party... but they always end badly with a hangover... at 4am no one thinks the party is going to end but eventually they will have to drive home." - Larry Lindsey
Lawrence B. Lindsey was a US Federal Reserve member, director of the National Economic Council and the assistant to the U.S. President George W. Bush on economic policy. [http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-30/larry-lindsey-crushes-steve-liesmans-dreams-foolish-feds-bubble-policy-always-ends-b ]
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[Quote No.57046] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Fundamental, value investing, especially when a market busts:] Amid a sheer panic in the market, we should be brave and act opposite to the crowd. There is always an abandoned pearl in any market with bubbles. In a market full of panic sentiment, even more such opportunities are hidden. [As Warren Buffet says, 'Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful!']" - Guo Guangchang
Chairman of Chinese conglomerate, Fosun Group, which is morphing into an insurance-focused investment group, with him as 'China’s Warren Buffett',(worth some $7 billion at last count). [http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-10/chinas-warren-buffett-guo-guangchang-disappears]
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[Quote No.57134] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Setting US Federal Reserve central bank interest rates so they stimulate or restrict the markets and the economy:] The 'power curve' is a term borrowed from the jet age of aviation, referring to the delayed response time of a jet engine to an increase in the throttle position. In 1979, New York Yankees catcher Thurmon Munson tragically died while piloting a Cessna Citation jet, sinking too low while on approach for a landing. He had reportedly realized there was a problem and added throttle, but the lag time in the response of the jet engines meant that power was not there soon enough to correct the flight path. Munson’s one year of experience in piston-powered aircraft, which have a faster throttle response time, was cited as a factor in the pilot-error crash that killed him. The stock market and the economy have a similar lag time in response to throttle adjustments by the Fed. And it is the 2-year T-Note yield which tells us what the throttle setting ought to be for shorter term rates. Two years ago [in December, 2013], the 2-year T-Note yield was hovering around 0.30%, and so having a target Fed Funds rate of 0% to 0.25% was not that much of a problem. But just recently [December, 2015] the 2-year T-Note yield has risen up to 1.00%, and the Fed has been asleep at the switch. ...when the Fed is slow to respond to what the bond market is saying about where rates should be, it creates big problems for the financial markets. If the Fed keeps rates too low [for too long], it fuels a bubble of some kind. Keeping the Fed Funds target above the 2-year T-Note yield puts a braking force on the financial markets. The Fed was slow to raise rates in the early 2000s, during Alan Greenspan’s final term as Fed Chairman. That delayed response helped to fuel the housing market bubble [that crashed in 2007-8, nearly causing a depression worse than the Great Depression of 1929-33. And after Bernanke took over, the Fed was also slow to lower rates when the housing market collapse hit [2007 but started in 2005], worsening the damage as a result. Now the Fed [December, 2015] is making its standard mistake, waiting too long to start changing short term rates. They have at least now started that process, but they are still behind the power curve. ...This most recent change in Fed policy only slightly mitigates the big spread that has been building. The Fed is arguably still being too stimulative, at least based on the message of the 2-year T-Note yield. When there is a positive spread, that is stimulative, and the NYSE’s A-D Line typically moves higher. A restrictive Fed takes the A-D Line and the major averages lower. But there are exceptions, such as in 2002 when the Fed’s stimulus was not enough to overcome the downdraft from the Internet bubble collapse. And in 2008, the Fed’s stimulus was not enough to overcome the downdraft of the real estate bubble...." - Tom McClellan
Editor, The McClellan Market Report, December 17, 2015. [www.mcoscillator.com ]
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[Quote No.57174] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Here is an example of why physical force, conflict and war finds more support and therefore is more easily entered into in difficult domestic situations and times by politicians and business-people - the 'political-banking-military-industrial complex' - as it can be ‘good for business, employment and a country's government and political leaders as tax revenue increases, deficits matter less, they have greater arbitrary power, there is a scapegoat for difficulties, the press has less space and time for domestic issues other than the war, etc, etc’:] As of June 1950, despite two years of American assistance, Japanese industry lacked needed capital and export markets. The austerity program initiated by [U.S. economic advisor] Joseph Dodge during 1949 curbed inflation and halted deficit spending, yet it also triggered a severe recession. By June, unemployment reached 500,000 -- twice the level of the year before. Share prices fell sharply on Tokyo's stock exchange and small business failures increased dramatically. The index of industrial production had risen to over 80 percent of its prewar level, but a credit crunch limited investment in plants and equipment. More ominously, Japan exported less than half the amount of textiles and manufactured goods it had before the war. The Toyota Motor Sales Company typified heavy industry. The company was squeezed between declining sales, unions resisting layoffs, and a credit crunch that prevented acquisition of badly needed technology. In June 1950, Toyota produced barely 300 trucks. President Kamiya Shotaro flew to the United States hoping to induce the Ford Motor Company to invest in Toyota. He arrived on June 24, just as the news broke of the Korean attack. At first, the fighting appeared to doom Toyota's prospects since the Defense Department discouraged Ford from diverting resources by sending a management team to Japan. Despondent, Kamiya left Detroit with a sense of failure. The next month, however, Toyota received a military order for 1,000 trucks. Within a year it had sold 5,000 vehicles to U.S. forces and boosted monthly production to over 2,000 units. Workers' annual wages doubled and the company paid its first dividend since 1945. Years later, Kamiya described these orders as 'Toyota's salvation.' The company used profits from military sales and technology transfers to modernize its operations, reduce the power of organized labor, and begin passenger car production. Kamiya's happiness over Toyota's good fortune was tempered only slightly by a 'sense of guilt that I was rejoicing over another country's war.' Many companies had reason to celebrate. As Jeeps and other vehicles used in Korea needed repair, they were often brought to Higashi Nippon Heavy Industries (later part of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries) near Tokyo. More than a hundred U.S. military and civilian technicians, using the latest imported machinery, supervised the Japanese workforce. Miyahara Toshia, production manager and later a director of Mitsubishi Motors Corporation, recalled that 'everyone in the plant, from the foreman down, was given a chance to learn a mechanized, integrated process.' Benefits from military procurement spread beyond heavy industry. Shortly after fighting began in Korea, the U.S. Army Procurement Officer in Yokohama called in officials of firms that made bags for holding rice. 'We need all the gunny sacks you have,' he told them, 'and we need them urgently for making combat sandbags. It doesn't even matter if they're used. Name your price and we'll pay for it.' These companies eventually sold 200 million sacks to the U.S. Army at twice the usual price. This enabled the Nippon Matai Company to expand its force of sewing machine operators from 30 to 150. By adding new equipment and diversifying production, it eventually employed over 1,000 people. War orders benefited the textile, construction, automotive, metal, communications, and chemical industries. At the peak of the Korean conflict, nearly 3,000 Japanese firms held war-related contracts while many others arranged with U.S. companies and the Defense Department to acquire new technology. During the first year of the Korean War, procurements totaled some $329 million, about 40 percent of the value of Japan's total exports in 1950. During 1952, procurement and other forms of military spending reached $800 million. The index of industrial production finally surpassed the pre-World War II level in October 1950, rose to 131 percent in May 1951, and kept climbing. By 1954, Japan earned over $3 billion in defense expenditures, initiating a two-decade period of 10 percent annual growth in the GNP. The outbreak of fighting in Korea breathed life into the dormant Japanese economy and stock market. Small wonder that when Prime Minister Yoshida learned of the North Korean attack he reportedly exclaimed, 'It's the Grace of Heaven,' or that Bank of Japan governor lchimada Naoto called the procurement orders 'divine aid.' Speaking in the Diet early in 1951, Yoshida asserted that the 'Korean War provided more stimulus for Japanese economic resurgence than did all the occupation efforts.' Ambassador Robert Murphy described the war as a 'godsend' that enabled Japan to rebuild at 'maximum speed.' The procurement boom, he remarked, 'transformed' Japan into 'one huge supply depot, without which the Korean War could not have been fought.'" - Michael Schaller
As quoted from the book, ‘Altered States: The United States and Japan since the Occupation [after World War II]’, published 1997 by Oxford University Press, Pages 47-49.
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[Quote No.57204] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The Great Depression, like most other periods of severe unemployment, was produced by government mismanagement rather than by any inherent instability of the private economy. ... Roosevelt's policies were very destructive. Roosevelt's policies made the depression longer and worse than it otherwise would have been." - Milton Friedman
(1912-2006) Nobel Prize-winning economist and economic advisor to US President Ronald Reagan.
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[Quote No.57245] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Market busts and crashes:] Whether we're talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down." - Warren Buffet

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[Quote No.57258] Need Area: Money > Invest
"All this monetary stimulus [central bank's monetary policy of sustained low interest rates - especially quantitative easing] does two things in a reciprocal way: It pushes failure into the future and brings consumption into the present. Providing marginal businesses with very cheap credit is inviting companies that have passed their useful days of their commercial lives to pretending some kind of an afterlife thanks to the subsidies from the central banks. But capitalism is inherently a dynamic system based on entrepreneurship and to new inventions. It's a little bit like the forest for the trees: You need life but you also need death. Without death there is no room for a new generation and what you get is Japan: Standing timbers of ancient age, none of them too healthy. Quantitative easing and artificially low interest rates reduce the dynamics, the growth and the vibrancy of economic life. Now the fear of corporate failures is growing. You can see that in the widening spreads in the junk bond market. The junk bond market has been characterized by very loose protections to the creditors. Those protections have been mainly eviscerated or weakened during this cycle of very aggressive lending and borrowing. That's why I think the recovery rates on junk bonds in default will be lower and the final permanent losses to capital will be higher this cycle. But this should not be confused with the apocalypse. This is how finance works. This is the cycle of psychology of bull markets and bear markets, of boom and bust: There is euphoria and that mellows to complacency and at length it ripens to apprehension and then to fear and finally to abject terror - and that's when you buy!" - Jim Grant
Editor of the investment journal ‘Grant’s Interest Rate Observer’. [http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-26/jim-grant-explains-how-hedge-against-coming-money-paradrop ]
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[Quote No.57275] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[The danger of government deficits, Government Bonds and prolonged war: Though he had seemingly unlimited revenue in the form of gold and silver from the New World, Phillip II of Spain (1527-1598) squandered it all, and more, on war and became the first sovereign in history to declare bankruptcy. Spain lost the Netherlands as a result:] The Spanish Crown borrowed in two basic ways. The foundation stone of sovereign debt was juros, a range of government bonds securitized in one way or another with a guaranteed rate of interest over the life of the loan. The interest was increasingly linked to some specific source of income, perhaps a lien against the alcabala, a sales tax raised in Castile on salt, wine and other commodities, or against the rents payable on certain Crown estates, and recovery of the payment was often the responsibility of the bankers themselves. Then there were the asientos, a bewildering kaleidoscope of floating debt usually agreed on an ad hoc basis in order to fund some particular project or campaign on which the Crown paid a very high rate of interest for a relatively short period, after which the creditors usually agreed to consolidate asientos into juros. Until the 1560s, the bankers who lent money to the Crown largely did so out of their own pockets. But in a world awash with money the Genoese were determined to borrow as much as possible from the tradesmen, merchants, noblemen, farmers and even peasants from across Europe who wanted to lend it to them. They then found all sorts of ways of putting that money to work, but the Spanish Crown was always the major client which drove the whole debt market. In fact, Philip's government was so hungry to fund his huge expenditure that it regularly outbid more useful creditors such as farmers and industrialists, driving up interest rates and contributing to the rampant inflation that devalued the principal of Crown debt but was very damaging to the economy. The crucial innovation of the Genoese bankers was to create' a secondary market in Spanish sovereign debt by selling shares in the juros they held to a range of investors, but especially to Spanish ecclesiastical foundations, to the growing middle class, such as lawyers and doctors, and to some noble families. They spread the risk associated with a range of juros across a large number of investors, establishing a sort of primitive collateralized debt obligation. The Genoese achieved especially lucrative premiums because the size of their operation allowed them to negotiate on favourable terms with the Crown. As Sarabia de la Calle explained, 'because they are considered so creditworthy, they pay much less interest than the princes who pay at an expensive rate'. But, almost more importantly, they were exceptionally talented at extracting income from the often unreliable sources of revenue put up as security. The ingenuity of the Genoese in expanding the market for Spanish sovereign debt allowed Philip II to keep his armies in the field and prosecute his wars against the French, the Dutch and the Turks. But the cost of his military operations far exceeded what he could afford: between 1571 and 1575, expenditure in Europe was over eighteen million ducats, while total Crown income in Castile, including bullion and tax receipts from the Americas, amounted to between five and six million. It may be obvious with hindsight that such a deficit must end sooner rather than later in some sort of default. But the bankers and the government were pioneers experimenting on a grand scale with the first ever recognizably modern economy. Even the extent of Crown revenue was so poorly understood that in 1572. Juan de Ovando, the new President of the Council of Finance and an experienced member of the Council of the Indies, described 'the government and administration of the treasury as divided into too many tribunals' and complained that 'in all of them there is much confusion and little, or no, implementation of the work of each office'. Ovando was a very able bureaucrat, but when he tried to assess the Crown's gross income and debt he was unable to come up with consistent, let alone reliable, figures, offering one set of figures in April 1574 and a significantly different set in August. While Ovando and his officials were failing to understand the detail, matters were coming to a head. Crucially, in the late 1550s almost all Spanish sovereign debt had been converted into juros that were to be funded directly by royal receipts from the Americas. The attraction to the creditors is clear: every year they could actually watch their interest being unloaded in glittering piles of gold and silver ingots on to ox-carts at the port in Seville. Year on year, with almost no exceptions, the Crown had banked more and more money from the New World. There seemed no safer bet. But then in the early 1570s American revenues fell significantly and the supposedly safe juros lost half their value on the secondary market. Public opinion turned ugly, and there were demands that the Crown should default. The bankers became nervous. With almost his entire income now tied to the payment of interest, Philip was forced to suspend those payments in order to maintain the Crown's liquidity. At the same time, he had no choice but to default on thirty-six million ducats' worth of loans that had become due for settlement. On 1 September 1575, he effectively declared himself bankrupt, the first sovereign default in history. The Genoese retaliated by withdrawing his banking facilities in the Netherlands, and Philip's new military commander there complained that he could 'not find a single penny, nor can I see how the king could send money here, even if he had it in abundance. Short of a miracle, the whole military machine will fall in ruins.' It proved to be a perspicacious prophecy. The light cavalry, for example, were owed six years' pay, and in 1576 the soldiers mutinied. After committing a series of terrible atrocities, including the especially brutal sack of friendly Antwerp remembered as 'the Spanish Fury', the Army of the Netherlands mutinied and abandoned the coastal Counties of Holland and Zeeland. The States General worked quickly to unite all Seventeen Provinces of the Netherlands in an act known as the Pacification of Ghent, which established a humiliating general peace that required the removal of all Spanish troops and officials from both the Spanish and Dutch Low Countries. Dutch obstinacy had bankrupted mighty Philip by forcing him to keep such a large army in the field for so long. ..." - Robert Goodwin
‘Spain: The Centre of the World 1519-1682’, Bloomsbury Press, 2015, Pages 183-187.
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[Quote No.57289] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Too low interest for too long is not good for anyone in the long run:] ‘Axel Merk Warns ZIRP Is Bad For Everyone, ‘May Lead To War’ ’ - We call on central banks to abolish their zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) framework before more harm is done. In our assessment, ZIRP is bad for all stakeholders and may even lead to war. ===== ZIRP: Bad for Business? ===== At first blush, it may appear great for business to have access to cheap financing. But what may be good for any one business is not necessarily good for the economy. When interest rates are artificially depressed, it can subsidize struggling enterprises that might otherwise be driven out of business. As a result, productive capital can be locked into zombie enterprises. If ailing businesses were allowed to fail, those laid off would need to look for new jobs at firms that have a better chance of succeeding. As such, the core tenant of capitalism: creative destruction, may be undermined through ZIRP. In our assessment, the result is that an economy grows at substantially below its potential. ===== ZIRP: Bad for Investors? ===== Investors may have enjoyed the rush of rising asset prices as a result of ZIRP. However, this may well have been a Faustian bargain as the Federal Reserve (Fed) and other central banks have masked, but not eliminated, the risks that come with investing. Complacency has been rampant, as asset prices rose on the backdrop of low volatility. When volatility is low (more broadly speaking, we refer to ‘compressed risk premia’), rational investors tend to allocate more money to historically risky assets. While that may be exactly what central banks want - at least for the real economy - investors may bail out when volatility spikes, as they realize they didn't sign up for this (‘I didn't know the markets were risky!’). We believe that until early August this year, investors generally ‘bought the dips’ out of concern of missing out on rallies. Now, they may be ‘selling the rallies’ as they scramble to preserve their paper gains. This process is driven by the Fed's desire to pursue an ‘exit.’ … But it's not just bad because asset prices might crumble again after their meteoric rise; it's bad because, in our analysis, ZIRP has driven fundamental analysts to the sideline. For anecdotal evidence, look no further than the decision by Barron's Magazine to kick Fred Hickey (who may well be one of the best analysts of our era) out of the Barron's Roundtable. Instead, money looks to be flocking towards investment strategies based on momentum investing, a strategy that works until it doesn't. Again, ZIRP gives capitalism a bad name because we feel it disrupts efficient capital allocation. ===== ZIRP: Bad for Main Street? ===== Excessively low interest rates are also bad for Main Street. In our analysis, excessively low interest rates are a key driver of the growing wealth gap in the U.S. and abroad. Hedge funds and sophisticated investors seemed to thrive as they engaged in highly levered bets; at the other end of the spectrum are everyday people that may not get any interest on their savings, but are lured into taking out loans they may not be able to afford. We believe ever more people are vulnerable to ‘fall through the cracks’ as they encounter financial shocks, such as the loss of a job or medical expenses; hardship may be exacerbated because people had been incentivized to load up on debt even before they encountered a financial emergency. Again, we believe ZIRP gives capitalism a bad name, although ZIRP has nothing to do with capitalism. Low interest rates may not even be good for home buyers: it may sound attractive to have low financing cost, but the public appears to slowly wake up to the fact that when rates are low, prices are higher: be that the prices of college tuition or homes. It's all great to have high home prices when you are a home owner, but it's not so great when you are trying to buy your first home. ===== ZIRP: Bad for Price Stability? ===== While we believe inflation may ultimately be a problem if interest rates are kept too low for too long, ZIRP may temporarily suppress inflation. While this may sound counter-intuitive, it is precisely because of the aforementioned capital misallocation ZIRP may be fostering: when inefficient businesses are being subsidized, as we believe ZIRP does, inflation dynamics may not follow classical rulebooks. That's because an economy with inefficient capital resource allocation experiences shifts in supply of goods and services that may not match demand leading to what may appear to be erratic price shifts. The most notable example may be commodity prices, where the extreme price moves in recent years are a symptom that not all is right. ===== ZIRP: Bad for Politics? ===== In our assessment, Congress has increasingly outsourced its duties to the Fed (the same applies to politicians and central bankers to many other parts of the world). The Fed now ought to look after inflation, employment, and financial stability. The Fed, in our humble opinion, is not only ill suited to tackle most of these, but invites political backlash as they step on fiscal turf. Let me explain: monetary policy focuses on the amount of credit available in the economy; in contrast, fiscal policy - through tax and regulatory policy - focuses on how this credit gets allocated. If the Fed now allocates money to a specific sector of the economy, say, the mortgage market by buying Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), they meddle in politics. Calls to ‘audit the Fed’ are likely a direct result of the Fed having overstepped their authority, increasingly blurring the lines between the Fed and Congress. More importantly, the U.S., just like Europe and Japan, face important challenges that in our opinion can neither be outsourced, nor solved by central banks in general or ZIRP in particular. ===== ZIRP: Bad for Peace? ===== In 2008 and subsequent years, you likely heard the phrase, ‘Central banks can provide liquidity, but not solvency.’ In essence, it means central banks can buy time. But what happens when central banks buy a lot of time and underlying problems are not fixed? In our assessment, it means that the public gets antsy, gets upset. When problems persist for many years the public demands new solutions. But because monetary policy is too abstract of an issue for most, they look for solutions elsewhere, providing fertile ground for populist politicians. Here are just a few prominent political figures that have thrived due to public frustration with the status quo: Presidential candidate Donald Trump; Senator and Presidential candidate Bernie Sanders; Greek Prime Minister Tsipras; Ukrainian Prime Minister Yatsenyuk; Japanese Prime Minister Abe; and most recently the new leader of UK's Labor Party Jeremy Corbyn. And what do just about all politicians - not just the ones mentioned above - have in common? They rarely ever blame themselves; instead, they seem to blame the wealthy, minorities or foreigners for any problems. We believe the key problem many countries have is debt. I allege that if countries had their fiscal house in order, they would rarely see the rise of populist politicians. While there are exceptions to this simplified view, Ukraine may not be one of them: would Ukraine be in the situation it is in today if the country were able to balance its books? Central banks are clearly not appointing populist politicians, but we allege ZIRP provides a key ingredient that allows such politicians to rise and thrive. ZIRP has allowed governments to carry what we believe are excessive debt burdens though ZIRPs cousin quantitative easing (‘QE’). QE is essentially government debt monetization in our view. Take the Fed's U.S. treasury buying QE program. Those Treasuries (or new Treasuries that the Fed rolls into) might be held indefinitely by the Fed (despite claims of balance sheet normalization) - meaning that US Government will never pay the principle, and the U.S. Government effectively pays zero interest on that debt because the profits of the Fed flow back to the US Treasury. ZIRP allows governments to engage on spending sprees, such as a boost of military spending Prime Minister Abe might pursue. The Great Depression ultimately ended in World War II. I'm not suggesting that the policies of any one politician currently in office or running for office will lead to World War III. However, I am rather concerned that the longer we continue on the current path, the more political instability will be fostered that could ultimately lead to a major international conflict. ===== How to get out of this mess ===== It's about time we embrace what we have been lobbying for since the onset of the financial crisis: the best short-term policy is a good long-term policy. We have to realize that when faced with a credit bust, there will be losers, and that printing money cannot change that. In that spirit, we must not be afraid of normalizing policy in fear of causing an economic setback. When rates rise, businesses that should have failed long ago, are likely to fail. Rather than merely rising rates, though, policy makers must provide a long-term vision of the principles that guides their long-term policy. In our humble opinion, ‘data dependency’ is an inadequate principle, if it is one at all. The Fed needs to have the guts to tell Congress that it is not their role to fix their problems. It requires guts because they must be willing to accept a recession in making their point." - Axel Merk
MerkInvestments.com [http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-29/axel-merk-warns-zirp-bad-everyone-may-lead-war ]
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[Quote No.57480] Need Area: Money > Invest
"We really can't forecast all that well, and yet we pretend that we can, but we really can't." - Alan Greenspan
Economist and former Chairman of the US Federal Reserve [central bank].
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[Quote No.57483] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Investing Lessons from the Farm: My parents were hard-working vegetable famers in western Washington, but making ends meet was always a struggle. My classmates laughed at my hand-me-down clothes and logger boots with holes in the soles, but I never went to bed hungry and my mother kissed me goodnight every night until I left for college. Farm work was hard and I hated it - I mean really hated it - at the time, but I now think that those years on the farm were the foundation of the success that I enjoy today. Moreover, there's a surprising number of investment lessons that I learned as the son of a farmer. ----- Boring Work Is the Most Important Work: Farming is far from glamorous, but some of the work was dreadfully boring. In the spring, my father would have me pick rocks out of the fringes of the farm, and in the summer, I spent thousands of hours on my hands and knees pulling up weeds. It was boring and seemed meaningless at the time, but every successful business needs a strong foundation, and the basic building blocks of preparing the soil is crucial. The same is true of investing. Reading annual reports, financial statements, and balance sheets can be boring, but it is that fundamental, time-consuming research that sets you up for long-term success. ----- Summer Profits Come from Winter Efforts: My non-farmer friends assumed farmers took it easy during the winter. Wrong! Even when snow covered the ground, my father still worked a minimum of 12 hours a day. There may not have been any crops to harvest in winter, but there was always plenty of off-season work to do on the farm, such as repairing the farm machinery and mending fences. My high school basketball coach used to scream at us that December games are actually won during the off-season workouts, and the same is true of investing. You make your profits before you buy a stock; not after you sell it. ----- Core and Explore: The most important decision any farmer makes is what to plant. The price of vegetables could vary widely from year to year, and many farmers would play a Green Acres version of roulette by trying to anticipate what the 'hot' vegetable of the year would be. Not my father; he stuck to red radishes and green onions for roughly 80% of our farm and gambled with the last 20% of our land on what crops he thought could deliver big payoffs. I do the same with my portfolio today; I keep the vast majority of my portfolio in stable, established blue-chip companies that pay generous dividends and use the last 20% or so for more speculative bets (including shorts and put options). ----- Profits, Not Revenues: What makes one farmer more successful than the other? Many of our neighboring farmers also grew radishes and onions, but what made my father more successful than others was that he knew it isn't how much you harvest, but how much profit you make on what you do grow. My father was a very frugal man, and he seldom bought anything if it wasn't on sale, so his cost was lower than most of his competitors'. I'm a cheapskate too, so I seldom buy stocks unless they go on sale. You've probably heard the warning, 'Don't try to catch falling knives.' Well, I love falling knives, and I think that I'm one of the best falling-knife catchers in the world, so you won't see me buying stocks at 52-week highs. ----- Plow Under Your Mistakes: Sometimes things just went wrong on the farm. Insects would infest our crops, some months were too wet and triggered mould outbreaks, and some years frost would come too early or too late and damage the crops. Instead of spending too much time and/or too much money on rescuing the damaged crops, my father would often plow them under and start over. My father was a big believer in cutting your losses and moving on. The same applies to investing, but I find that many investors are too stubborn to admit a mistake or want to wait until they 'break even' before selling. ----- Expect Storms: Whether or not my father had a good year depended on three things: (1) no late frosts, (2) no early frosts, and (3) no natural disasters like hail storms, tornados, droughts, or massive insect infestations. While you can't avoid disasters, you can plan for them and run for cover when they do come. The wise investor diversifies in anticipation of those things that are beyond his control and buys insurance to protect against catastrophic losses. [----- Investing is Seasonal: There's a time to plant/buy - Spring - and a time to reap/get dividends and-or sell - late Summer, early Autumn.]" - Tony Sagami
30-year share market investor who leads the 'Yield Shark' and 'Rational Bear' advisories at Mauldin Economics. January 12, 2016.
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[Quote No.57498] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Disciplined value investors sometimes have to sit patiently in high levels of cash while waiting for a time when more opportunities emerge to enter stocks at attractive prices." - Scott Schuberg
CEO Rivkin Securities
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[Quote No.57500] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Economic management and politics:] Does the [US] stock market affect or predict the [US] election outcome? The old saying that 'people vote their pocketbooks' is more accurate than the average [US] political analyst thinks. While Wall Street typically worries about how politics might affect the market, perhaps [US] Presidential candidates should worry about how the [US] stock market might affect their political outcomes. Historically, the [US] market performance in the three months leading up to a [US] Presidential Election has displayed an uncanny ability to forecast who will win the White House... the incumbent party or the challenger. Since 1928, there have been 22 Presidential Elections. In 14 of them, the Standard and Poor 500 climbed during the three months preceding election day. The incumbent President or party won in 12 of those 14 instances. However, in 7 of the 8 elections where the S&P 500 fell over that three month period, the incumbent party lost. There are only three exceptions to this correlation: 1956, 1968, and 1980. Statistically, the market has an 86.4% success rate in forecasting the election! This relationship occurs because the stock market reflects the economic outlook in the weeks leading up to the election. A rising stock market indicates an improving economy, which means rising confidence and increases the chances of the incumbent party's re-election. Therefore, your time might be better spent from August through October watching the [US] stock market rather than the debates if you want to know who will be [US] President for the next four years." - James Stack
He writes the InvesTech Research newsletter. [http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-15/why-donald-trump-praying-market-crash ]
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[Quote No.57664] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[In the past an inverted yield curve, where short-term rates are higher - rather than about 2% lower - than long-term bond rates, has been a good predictor for a share market crash and a recession within the next 3 - 12 months. This rule of thumb may now be in doubt.] As the experience in Japan has shown, the yield curve typically does not invert when short rates are under 1%. Consequently [January, 2016 after nearly 7 years of very low rates due to the US Federal Reserve's Quantitative Easing emergency policy] we believe there is a high probability that whenever the next US recession occurs, the curve is likely to remain positive, and perhaps significantly so, at least compared to past business cycles." - Deutsche Bank’s fixed-income team
[https://news.markets/bonds/dont-rely-on-the-us-yield-curve-for-gdp-cues-9700/ ]
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[Quote No.57731] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Another very good recession indicator on par with an inverted yield curve - both intimately related to bank lending which indicates its critical role along with central bank and monetary policy for controlling the credit, market and business cycles: Two consecutive quarters of tightening lending standards] has never happened before without it signalling an eventual move into recession and a notable default cycle. Once we have 2 such quarters lending standards don't net loosen again until the start of the next cycle." - Jim Reid
Deutsche Bank. [http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-04/how-fed-unwittingly-confirmed-recession-and-default-cycle-are-now-inevitable https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DRTSCIS ]
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[Quote No.57773] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Did we ever mention that investing is hard work — painstaking, relentless, and at times confounding? Separating relevant signal from noise can be especially difficult. Endless patience, great discipline, and steely resolve are required. Nothing you do will guarantee success, though you can tilt the odds significantly in your favour by having the right philosophy, mindset, process, team, clients, and culture. Getting those six things right is just about everything. Complicating matters further, a successful investor must possess a number of seemingly contradictory qualities. These include the arrogance to act, and act decisively, and the humility to know that you could be wrong. The acuity, flexibility, and willingness to change your mind when you realise you are wrong, and the stubbornness to refuse to do so when you remain justifiably confident in your thesis. The conviction to concentrate your portfolio in your very best ideas, and the common sense to nevertheless diversify your holdings. A healthy scepticism, but not blind contrarianism. A deep respect for the lessons of history balanced by the knowledge that things regularly happen that have never before occurred. And, finally, the integrity to admit mistakes, the fortitude to risk making more of them, and the intellectual honesty not to confuse luck with skill." - Seth Klarman
Founder of the Boston-based hedge fund Baupost Group and one of the most successful value investors of all time. [http://www.businessinsider.com.au/seth-klarman-on-what-makes-a-great-investor-2016-1 ]
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[Quote No.57806] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The crux of the matter is that anyone telling you what the market is doing now, what the value of something is now, is providing you a freely available commodity; even if, in the cases of some derivative products, you need to be a rocket scientist to be able to give a valuation today. The real value add in markets is to be able to see what future values might be; that is to live in the future, not in the present. I spend most of my time, while looking at current prices, thinking about and trying to live six months to one year in the future. Thinking about what will be the reaction to what is happening now, and then thinking about what that means future prices might look like. Generally that has worked well for me." - Russell Clark
Hedge fund Horseman Capital's inimitable Chief Investment Manager. [http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-12/one-worlds-top-performing-hedge-funds-just-went-record-short-explains-why ]
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[Quote No.57837] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Investors must employ an investment philosophy and process that serve as a bulwark against a turbulent sea of uncertainty and then navigate through confusing and often conflicting economic signals and market head fakes. Amidst the onslaught of gyrating securities prices, fast and furious corporate developments, and an unprecedented volume of data, it is more important than ever to maintain your bearings. Value investing continues to be the best (and perhaps only) reliable North Star for those who are able to remain patient, long-term oriented, and risk averse." - Seth Klarman
Quote from the Boston-based hedge fund Baupost founder's year-end 2015 letter to investors.
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[Quote No.57848] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism (which makes stocks too expensive) and unjustified pessimism (which renders them too cheap). The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists." - Jason Zweig
Quote from his commentary on Chapter 8 of the Ben Graham book about value investing called 'The Intelligent Investor'.
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[Quote No.57878] Need Area: Money > Invest
"I'm always thinking about losing money as opposed to making money. Don't focus on making money, focus on protecting what you have. [Protect from downside-risk and the upside-reward will take care of itself.]" - Paul Tudor Jones

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[Quote No.57883] Need Area: Money > Invest
"When emotions overtake reason, behavior becomes bizarre [both on the upswing, in a bull market, and the downswing, in a bear market crash]." - David Kotok
Chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors
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[Quote No.57884] Need Area: Money > Invest
"At a certain point when something is unsustainable it will end. But it can also go on longer than you expect." - William White
Former economic adviser to the Swiss-based Bank of International Settlements – often dubbed 'the central bankers' central bank'. [http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-3445861/Look-heading-crash-warns-William-White-central-banker-predicted-2008-crisis.html ]
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[Quote No.57911] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Caveat emptor - buyer beware:] It is as hard for the good to suspect evil, as it is for the bad to suspect good." - Marcus Tullius Cicero

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[Quote No.58123] Need Area: Money > Invest
"If we are wise, let us prepare for the worst [and then hope for the best]!! " - George Washington

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[Quote No.58142] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The most important rule is to play great defense, not great offense. Everyday I assume every position I have is wrong. I know where my stop risk points are going to be. I do that so I can define my maximum drawdown. Hopefully, I spend the rest of the day enjoying positions that are going in my direction. If they are going against me, then I have a game plan for getting out." - Paul Tudor Jones

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[Quote No.58215] Need Area: Money > Invest
"A good player quits a game that is not financially worthwhile or that conflicts with a more profitable game." - Frank R. Wallace

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[Quote No.58218] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The shape of the yield curve is, in and of itself, a survey. [Ben Eisen explains, 'The curve has long been an indicator of economic prospects. While short-term rates tend to be influenced by the likely path of Federal Reserve policy, long-term rates are seen as a signal about the expectations for economic growth and inflation, plus additional compensation for holding the securities for a long period of time. If the difference between them grows, that's typically thought to be a positive sign about where investors believe the economy is headed. Banks are also seen as sensitive to the steepness of the curve because they profit from borrowing at cheap short-term rates and lending at more expensive long-term rates. That means a bigger difference typically boosts profits.]" - Ian Lyngen
Senior government bond strategist at CRT Capital Group LLC. [http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/03/08/one-market-alarm-bell-is-still-ringing-the-yield-curve/ ]
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[Quote No.58361] Need Area: Money > Invest
"In a recession - which is technically when growth falls for two financial quarters - there are two main macro-economic policies that the powers that be can attempt. The first is monetary policy where the central bank acts to lower interest rates. This increases the ability of businesses and individuals to sustain and increase their borrowings to invest and consume. It allows businesses to improve their profit margins as their debt service cost is reduced which allows fewer people to be fired as sales fall. Lower interest rates also reduce the competition for domestic sales as imported goods rise in the country's currency, while foreign sales of exported goods become cheaper in the foreign currency all else being equal. The latter is particularly important for low value-added goods - which are mostly indistinguishable except for price. This means this is particularly important for developing countries where the export economy relies on this more than developed countries. The other macro-economic tool is government spending - borrowing and investing into the economy. This is particularly timely because interest rates for domestic borrowing through government bonds are lower in a recession as inflation falls, just when Gross Domestic Product and tax revenues are lower than before. These tools need to be reversed as soon as they are sustainably effective lest the economy comes to rely on them and therefore reduces their future effectiveness to further economic shocks and the consequential potential recessionary effects." - Seymour@imagi-natives.com

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[Quote No.58395] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[There are business, economic and share market cycles, which can be perceived as seasons:] Spring is the season of activity and opportunity that follows the turbulence of winter. It's the season for entering the fertile fields of life with seed, knowledge, commitment and a determined effort. However, the mere arrival of spring is no sign that things are going to look good in the fall. You must do something with the spring. Everyone has to get good at one of two things: planting in the spring or begging in the fall. Take advantage of the day and the opportunities that spring can bring." - Jim Rohn
[http://www.success.com/article/rohn-spring-is-the-season-of-opportunity-dont-waste-it? ]
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[Quote No.58408] Need Area: Money > Invest
"When corporate margins are in a compressing phase [falling] ... the risk of recession becomes elevated." - Jesse Edgerton
Economist at J.P. Morgan Chase. [http://fortune.com/2016/03/29/recession-corporate-profits/ ]
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[Quote No.58570] Need Area: Money > Invest
"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." - Warren Buffet

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[Quote No.58688] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Know what you own, and know why you own it." - Peter Lynch

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[Quote No.58708] Need Area: Money > Invest
"When you buy a stock, get in the mental state that you would own the whole business. Think about what you would pay for the whole business." - Warren Buffett

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[Quote No.58709] Need Area: Money > Invest
"You don't need to have a high IQ in the investment business, but you do need emotional control." - Warren Buffett

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[Quote No.58743] Need Area: Money > Invest
"You must get good at one of two things: sowing in the [economic] spring or begging in the [economic] fall." - Jim Rohn

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[Quote No.58839] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Crisis [deep value] investing is basically buying elite companies in beaten-up [recession ravaged] countries or industries. When there's a crisis, most people only see danger. But it's actually an opportunity. A crisis often allows you to buy a dollar's worth of assets for a dime...or less. Many of the world's greatest investors have made their fortunes this way...[John Templeton, Ben Graham, Warren Buffett, etc] but anyone can do it. You don't need be rich or well-connected. You don't even need to travel to do it." - Nick Giambruno
Senior Editor of Casey Research's 'International Man'.
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[Quote No.59426] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Business, more than any other occupation, is a continual dealing with the future; it is a continual calculation, an instinctive exercise in foresight. [Investing in businesses is therefore also an exercise in foresight!]" - Henry R. Luce
American magazine magnate who was called 'the most influential private citizen in the America of his day'.
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[Quote No.59517] Need Area: Money > Invest
"Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble." - Warren Buffett

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[Quote No.59545] Need Area: Money > Invest
"[Fundamental, value investing; sell when others are greedy and buy when they are fearful:] When the man on the street thinks stocks are a great idea and sure to produce profits, I'd watch out. When others are euphoric, that puts us in danger. When others are terrified, the prices they set are low, and we can be aggressive." - Howard Marks
Billionaire investor
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Imagi-Natives'
Self-Defence
& Fitness Training

because
Everyone deserves
to be
Healthy and Safe!
Ideal for Anyone's Personal Protection Needs
Simple, Fast, Effective!
Maximum Safety - Minimum Force
No Punches, Kicks, Chokes, Pressure Points or Weapons Used
Based on Shaolin Chin-Na Seize and Control Methods
Comprehensively Covers Over 130 Types of Attack
Lavishly Illustrated With Over 1300 illustrations
Accredited Training for Australian Security Qualifications
National Quality Council Approved